November 3, 2003, 15:51
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#121
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Emperor
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I'd say a fringe representing about 20-30 % of the electorate. About correct?
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less than 20.
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Overwhelming? Depends on how you draw the border. Though what's the point of the exercise?
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 of course it depends on how you draw the border. the point of the exercize is to prove you wrong on that Israel's increase of borders has to be by taking up places like the Gaza strip.
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Ehm... it depends on how many palestinians you have inside the walls.
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Even if NO palestinians will be inside the walls. Ever heard of artillery?
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In some areas - so you shouldn't endorse the bull that I responded to, that "larger borders" per se work that way. It depends what areas you include, some of the settlements around Jerusalem are pretty interwtined with palestinian areas, for example.
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You responded to that "more territory usually means better defence[/q] The extraordinary just points out more strongly to the rule. The fact that those are "pretty intertwined" doesn't mean that those can be separated. I know this for a fact, since I have relatives living on the outskirts of Jerusalem. The fact that across the valley lies a palestinian town doesn't change the fact that you can place a wall between "us and them".
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Now cry me an ocean. How often does that happen in international relations?
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All the time, Everywhere. And that's true for every country. That doesn't change the nature of my question, which you didn't, because...
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So what is the point of gobbling up much of the westbank? On 1967 borders, there is a chance for peace. If you annex half of the westbank, there will never be peace
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What is this chance for peace you're talking of? As long as the RoR remains a pillar of mainstream palestinian demands, peace will NOT be found.
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How many wars can Israel afford to lose against the Arabs?
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quite a lot, if those aren't all-out wars. And believe me, NOONE wants Israel to lose an all-out war.
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November 3, 2003, 16:13
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#122
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Settler
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I'm not sure where we actually disagree, in part I don't get you. Eg, artillery?
"And believe me, NOONE wants Israel to lose an all-out war."
Well this one I understand. The issue ends as soon as Iran, Syria or another enemy has nuclear weapons.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 16:22
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#123
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Deity
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Well this one I understand. The issue ends as soon as Iran, Syria or another enemy has nuclear weapons.
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No, it gets a hell of a lot worse.
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November 3, 2003, 16:25
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#124
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Emperor
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I'm not sure where we actually disagree, in part I don't get you. Eg, artillery?
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Unilateral withdrawal= No control of what goes on on the other side. groups like Hamas, and IJ getting artillery is only a matter of time then. So they'll place a Grad launcher inisde a town, near a hospital, or something and will fire away at Israeli cities. Lots of dead civilians on both sides, then.
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"And believe me, NOONE wants Israel to lose an all-out war."
Well this one I understand. The issue ends as soon as Iran, Syria or another enemy has nuclear weapons.
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Nothing will change, really. If Israel will be nuked, it will nuke everyone else, just like if it would be on the case of losing a conventional all-out war.
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November 3, 2003, 16:26
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#125
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Settler
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Sure it's worse, but the effect of an outright Israeli conventional loss will be much more balanced.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 16:27
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#126
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Deity
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Yes, in that Israel would get nuked too. So much better.
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November 3, 2003, 16:31
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#127
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Settler
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Originally posted by Azazel
Unilateral withdrawal= No control of what goes on on the other side.
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Well depends on what you leave there. After Arafat and Sharon have in tandem dismantled the PA, most likely anarchy. Will it last? Will they take on Israel or each other? Who knows. But you still control the other side to pretty much the same extent as now as long as there is no real state established.
The alternative is full reoccupation. You want that one?
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 16:32
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#128
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Settler
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Originally posted by skywalker
Yes, in that Israel would get nuked too. So much better.
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I haven't siad it's better. I have just said that it will pretty much eliminate the "NOONE wants Israel to lose an all-out war" issue.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 16:35
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#129
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Deity
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No it wouldn't.
No one wants nuclear war in the middle east.
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Later amendments to the Constitution don't supersede earlier amendments - GePap
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November 3, 2003, 16:39
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#130
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Sure it's worse, but the effect of an outright Israeli conventional loss will be much more balanced.
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No. it will mean the death of this society, in both cases. I am taking about a REAL loss. not some stalemate.
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Well depends on what you leave there. After Arafat and Sharon have in tandem dismantled the PA, most likely anarchy. Will it last? Will they take on Israel or each other? Who knows. But you still control the other side to pretty much the same extent as now as long as there is no real state established.
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The control Israel currently has on what goes on on the side is due to the current occupation regime ( which incompasses all but the hearts of the towns and cities, since noone here wants the death of our soldiers, and many many many more civilians) . With that gone, as the case in a unilateral withdrawal is, Israel will have little to no actual control on what is going there, and will have noone to trust that this lack of control won't translate into a lack of security.
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November 3, 2003, 16:48
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#131
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Settler
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"No. it will mean the death of this society, in both cases."
Well let's assume the Israelis have been defeated and are on the retreat. Will you nuke Damuscus if that means Tel Aviv gets nuked? Maybe, maybe not. Or would you say a definite yes? Then I understand your view.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 16:51
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#132
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Emperor
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Well let's assume the Israelis have been defeated and are on the retreat. Will you nuke Damuscus if that means Tel Aviv gets nuked? Maybe, maybe not. Or would you say a definite yes? Then I understand your view
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"on retreat"? that's a big vague?
If Syrian forces will be on the way to Israel's city centers, then yes. ( Me is a bit personal, never asked the question myself). Will it happen ? YES.
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November 3, 2003, 16:58
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#133
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Settler
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An Israeli 1st trike policy vs an arab nuclear power... depending on the arsenals on both sides, might as well invite an arab first strike.
But anyway, that's not exactly a happy future. And I wouldn't bet my country's existance on the Arabs being as disorganiszed, backwards and incompetent forever.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 17:30
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#134
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 as long as noone will give up the right of return, as I said, we have little choice.
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November 3, 2003, 17:35
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#135
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Settler
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Do you think Sharon would make a reasonable offer if the RoR demand were gone?
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 17:39
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#136
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Sharon will be gone in 2 years. It's his last term.
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November 3, 2003, 17:46
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#137
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Settler
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And then?
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 17:53
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#138
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Deity
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Originally posted by HershOstropoler
LOTM:
"My suspicion is that something like 20% to 30% of euros would, in this hypothetical, support A."
I don't think so. No matter how much the likudnik lobby hammers along about supposed european racism, most people have a problem with occupation and settlements, not with Israel as such. I think broad support would rather be for C. in that case. D. is nonsense in itself - how does "changing the borders" make Israel more secure? Unless you want to do a little ethnic cleansing.
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I dont want to see ethnic cleansing. Thats one reason I DONT want to see an agreement that leaves Israel so insecure as to invite further conflict. Especially under an Pal leadership that seems to be interested in pursuing the conflict. Especially in circumstances that would lead Pals to think that terrorism and rejectionism pay.
But IF Israel were to sign on the demand that seem to be what the European left considers would ensure an end to the conflict (Pal statehood, with few limitations on soveriegnty, with the pre-1967 armistice lines as borders) and the conflict were to be renewed by the Palestinians, there would be HEAVY pressure in Israel for ethnic cleansing. I suspect, under those circumstances, the debate would be about the extent (do we just expel people ONLY from places where we want to moderately rectify the border, or from everyplace west of the Jordan? Do we do it as humanely as possible, or Serb style? )
I think those who advocate not a territorial compromise, but the minimalist Israeli position, have an obligation to recognize the legitimate Israeli fear that maximal concessions WONT end the conflict, and articulate what they would do should that eventuality arise. Their is a strong sense among Israel supporters that in Oslo the Israelis withdrew from large areas in return for a lessening of the conflict, and that the implicit promise from the world was that if the Pals escalated the conflict any Israeli return to the territories would be accorded an international legitimacy that the earlier occupation did not have. This does not seem to have proven to be the case wrt to Europe, where the 2nd intifada is seen as if Oslo never happened. Only in the case of the US is that different. I suspect one of the main reasons AMericans see the 2nd intifada so differently from Europeans is that Pres Clinton was so involved in the Oslo process, and Americans took that process more seriously than europeans did.
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November 3, 2003, 17:58
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#139
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Deity
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Originally posted by HershOstropoler
And then?
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depends very much on the pal side.
I arafat is in power, and no independent Pal PM can arise, and the PA is working with Hamas, then Bibi probably gets elected PM. If Arafat is history, and a credible Pal PM is promising to give up the RoR, and is showing signs of seriously cracking down on terrorism, you probably get a Labor PM, most likely in coalition with moderates and others. A peace deal along the lines of Taba probably gets coalition approval. A deal along the lines of the recent Geneva deal (somewhat more generous to the Pals then Taba - no inclusion of Ariel or Gush Etzion in Israel, IIUC) probably leads to a split in the Israeli govt.
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"A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber
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November 3, 2003, 18:02
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#140
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Deity
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Originally posted by Azazel
Sharon will be gone in 2 years. It's his last term.
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hes gone in 2 years at most.
If a credible Pal PM, independent of Arafat, who is cracking down on Hamas and IJ, makes the offer that was presented in Geneva, and Sharon outright rejects it, Shinui probably leaves the coalition and theres a govt crisis in Israel. To avoid which Sharon probably DOESNT reject outright, but presents a counteroffer - more generous than anything hes put on the table before - to play for time. Semi-good faith negotiating.
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"A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber
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November 3, 2003, 18:04
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#141
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Emperor
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Originally posted by HershOstropoler
And then?
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Then, Either Nethaniyahu, or a Barak comeback ( I don't believe that any of the current Labor leaders has the stuff needed for it, besides him). Both of them will accept, with minor changes, 67' borders. Let us not forget that most of the settlers can be easily placed under Israeli sovereignity, and take a very small territory.
Why don't they get a couple of Israeli arab villages, instead? 
The interesting part is any implementation of the peace deal on the palestinian side. This means civil war. That's why this entire ****ing question is hypothetical.
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November 3, 2003, 18:08
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#142
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Settler
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Originally posted by lord of the mark
But IF Israel were to sign on the demand that seem to be what the European left considers would ensure an end to the conflict (Pal statehood, with few limitations on soveriegnty, with the pre-1967 armistice lines as borders) and the conflict were to be renewed by the Palestinians, there would be HEAVY pressure in Israel for ethnic cleansing.
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First, there should be transitionary limitations on pal sovereignty, but that's very difficult to implement in the current situation. 2nd, renewing the conflict if there is a border to defend - why did Israel retreat from South Lebanon then? Why is it not reoccupying it?
"This does not seem to have proven to be the case wrt to Europe, where the 2nd intifada is seen as if Oslo never happened."
It has more to do with the circumstances under which the 2nd intifada started.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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November 3, 2003, 18:20
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#143
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Deity
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Originally posted by HershOstropoler
First, there should be transitionary limitations on pal sovereignty, but that's very difficult to implement in the current situation. 2nd, renewing the conflict if there is a border to defend - why did Israel retreat from South Lebanon then? Why is it not reoccupying it?
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Many people say that it was a mistake to withdraw from South Lebanon, and led to the 2nd intifada by leading the pals to believe that violence worked. Why have they not reoccupied it? I suppose because the violence has been relatively insignificant. A few katsushas along the northern border are not worth going back in. Katushas falling on West Jerusalem would be something else again.
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"A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber
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November 3, 2003, 20:00
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#144
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Emperor
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Originally posted by Verres
Bear in mind most Europeans probably don't even know where Norh Korea is... 
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Easy. It's above South Korea...
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November 3, 2003, 20:10
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#145
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Emperor
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BTW why was my 60% Anti-Semite thread closed? Sure it uses the same subject matter as this thread, however the point is that Israelis/Jews always bring out the Anti-Semite card the moment anything negative is said against them in a completely unreasonable manner. Perhaps that is why Palestine is so controversial right now, this whole 'us against the rest of the world' attitude...
Anyway, here we are...
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November 3, 2003, 23:38
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#146
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Deity
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I think you can always bring up the point here, Mobius, where the Israelis are hanging out.
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November 4, 2003, 22:35
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#147
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Deity
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Originally posted by Azazel
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Because you're taking money from a certain someone.
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How on earth does this have to do with anything?
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It has to do with why everybody pays attention and why people don't like it when you tramp on the guy who isn't getting a few billion a year from uncle sam. It's not a justification, it's an explanation as to why people say "Israel" when asked the question. Obviously it's a stupid answer, but there you go...
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November 5, 2003, 08:05
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#148
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Emperor
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Originally posted by Urban Ranger
I think you can always bring up the point here, Mobius, where the Israelis are hanging out.
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Obviously I can't because they all seem to have buggered off - I guess they have the good sense to realise that calling people anti-semitic at the drop of a hat is a really anti social thing to do... 
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November 5, 2003, 08:23
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#149
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Emperor
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Btw, people, lately "Israelis" has been reduced to "Azazel". 
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It has to do with why everybody pays attention and why people don't like it when you tramp on the guy who isn't getting a few billion a year from uncle sam. It's not a justification, it's an explanation as to why people say "Israel" when asked the question. Obviously it's a stupid answer, but there you go...
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I REALLY fail to understand your point.
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November 5, 2003, 08:35
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#150
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Emperor
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Azazel
Btw, people, lately "Israelis" has been reduced to "Azazel".
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Fine by me, you always seemed like one of the better Israeli posters...
I'll take quality over quantity any time... 
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