Taiwan tells China to piss off...

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


As I pointed out elsewhere, that's a much weaker version of the thang that Chen wants it to be.

So?

Taiwan has taken another step toward independence. Slowly they are seperating from the mainland...appearing to never go quite far enough to trigger a war.

Good Luck to the freedom seekers!

[Drake Tungsten]

appearing to never go quite far enough to trigger a war.

It also appears that they would've went farther this time around if the U.S. hadn't made it clear that we don't want a crisis in the Taiwan Strait at this time.

[Ned]

On communism vs. fascism in China, it would be interesting to see just how much of the economy continued to state owned and planned. Also, do their farmers exist only in communes, etc.

[Alinestra Covelia]

Well, the commune system was dismantled even as early as 1987, when Deng declared the old system a failure. State owned companies are currently deregulating at a fairly steady pace (recently, the central government even issued statements that it would no longer fund more than two newspapers per province - many of my fellow journalists from the mainland say this is going to be the thin end of the wedge for long term political press freedom).

The central government does have a fear that over reliance on market forces could lead to wrenching destabilization. In any case, any such changes would be much more gradual than anything seen in Taiwan. When you're dealing with such a large populace and so underdeveloped a sprawling hinterland, speed is not always your top priority.

As for Taiwanese independence, the average Chinese thinker tends to be very clear that Taiwan is a part of China. How far this owes itself to government propaganda is doubtful, but many of my former classmates at Qinghua felt that eventual peaceful reunification was inevitable, so long as the economic and cultural similarities could overcome the political differences.

It would be nice if mainland China could liberalize to match the freedoms in Taiwan. To do this, we'd need a leadership level commitment to liberalization, as well as a leadership that can nonetheless apply checks to the process to keep it from causing too great a social rift between haves and have-nots.

Currently, one view is that China's current leadership is concerned only with self-service and self-preservation. I have no intention of defending them from the accusation.

But I also feel (as do many members of my father's family - Taiwanese born and bred) that the politicians who stand up and renounce all ties with the mainland do so with no regard for the historical, cultural, and familial ties between the two. My grandfather had a Taiwanese passport - all his siblings stayed behind and have Chinese passports. They never considered themselves separate countrymen. Go back two generations, and there is no difference at all, political or national.

A politician who severs his people from their cultural and historical background, ostensibly in their name, is just as guilty of playing to the political gallery as the mainland's bureaucrats. A declaration of independence would effectively end association with China's cultural heritage. My cousins have never been Communists, but they're all very clear that they're Chinese - albeit residing in Taiwan.

Hopefully, China's industrialization can lead to political loosening and stability, such that autonomy (in Tibet and Hong Kong) becomes real in deed rather than just a catchphrase. My father is not happy with having one half of the family in Zhejiang Province in China, and the other in Taipei and Taichung, never to see each other. He says he hopes for a situation where Taiwan reunifies with China, and the mainland will have developed to the point where everything actually stays the same.

It's important to remember that while there may be plenty of drawbacks to being a Communist, there's nothing wrong with being Chinese.

Looking at some of the posts here, it's evidently an easy thing to miss.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Alinestra Covelia
the politicians who stand up and renounce all ties with the mainland do so with no regard for the historical, cultural, and familial ties between the two. My grandfather had a Taiwanese passport - all his siblings stayed behind and have Chinese passports. They never considered themselves separate countrymen. Go back two generations, and there is no difference at all, political or national.

That sounds very similar to arguments against the US revolution. It is not always a bad thing to seperate. If done properly, then both nations could be stronger for it. So,"When in the course of human events..."


Additionally, it appears that the mainland will not make the necessary concessions to freedom necessary for the reunification to be anything beneficial to Taiwan other than not being attacked. IMO the Taiwanese people are persuing freedom...a worthy goal indeed.

[Alinestra Covelia]

I think the only thing in your post that I disagree with is your appraisal of the Chinese government's ability to change. Already we're seeing unprecedented changes in the political system... small beans compared to a democratic system, to be sure, but still a good indication of possible future reforms.

I still hold reunification to be the best outcome. There is so much to link the two regions that independence is hardly a catch-all solution.

Of course, for reunification to work, it would have to be beneficial for Taiwan, which the present situation does not suggest. But if we're willing to wait a few decades of modernization (without either side doing anything incendiary) it could happen.

The last time President Chen hinted at a referendum to declare independence, Taiwanese factory stocks plummeted as their economic moguls prepared to take their monies back to the mainland. Of course, you can't blame Chen for this - the threat of a Chinese attack had a lot to do with it - but I'd say it's a sign that there's too much common ground culturally and economically to separate.

[Ned]

Ali, does China have independent corporations that can make what they choose, sell it for unregulated prices, make as much profit as it can, and distribute dividends to its stockholders?

[Alinestra Covelia]

Do you mean domestic companies? If so, then I have to profess ignorance. If you mean foreign companies, then yes. My father works for Rolls Royce aerospace, which is still (just about) a British company. Siemens, Motorola, Nokia, and Volkswagen are doing good business there.

If you were about to make a point about Taiwan's economic freedom over China's, then consider the point made. But the main thrust of my argument was that true cross-straits equality is still far off in the future - and moreover is attainable and worth working towards.

[Drake Tungsten]

A declaration of independence would effectively end association with China's cultural heritage.

Why? It's quite possible to renounce ties to the government of mainland China and still consider yourself Chinese and the receipient of its cultural heritage. Just look at the large population of overseas Chinese.

Besides, it's not like a united, monolithic Chinese state is necessary for the continued propagation of Chinese culture. Historically, Chinese culture has done quite well and even thrived in times when China itself was divided into two of more states.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by PLATO
So?

That means Chen's scheme was foiled. Or rather, not even some members of the DPP want to get their arses fried.

Originally posted by PLATO
Taiwan has taken another step toward independence. Slowly they are seperating from the mainland...appearing to never go quite far enough to trigger a war.

Do they? It looks to me that Chen has played his ace-in-the-hole. Sorta like the Confederates at Gettysburg.

Originally posted by PLATO
Good Luck to the freedom seekers!

Freedom is such an empty word by now.

[Drake Tungsten]

Freedom is such an empty word by now.

Maybe in Hong Kong...

[DaShi]

Ali, I swear that I've seen a Chinese girl who looks just like your avatar at my school here in China. You haven't been taking any trips to Zhejiang recently, have you? Or maybe you do all look alike.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Why? It's quite possible to renounce ties to the government of mainland China and still consider yourself Chinese and the receipient of its cultural heritage. Just look at the large population of overseas Chinese.

Funny you mention that. Many of them do not consider themselves Chinese at all.

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Besides, it's not like a united, monolithic Chinese state is necessary for the continued propagation of Chinese culture. Historically, Chinese culture has done quite well and even thrived in times when China itself was divided into two of more states.

You have it backwards. Historically, it was the strength of the Chinese culture that eventually unified the country after periods of division.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Quote:

Freedom is such an empty word by now.

Maybe in Hong Kong...

Indeed, we hear the term espoused by USians all the time. Meaningless.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


Funny you mention that. Many of them do not consider themselves Chinese at all.

Actually many of them do.

[Alinestra Covelia]

I've talked to Indonesians and Thai individuals who are of Chinese descent, and they do not consider themselves Chinese... although they will only marry other people of Chinese descent or Chinese people.

HMB, my evil exhousemate, is dating an Indonesian girl who is not actually Chinese at all, but who just happens to look Chinese. That evidently is enough of a factor to cause her to look only to East Asian boys for boyfriend material. (She did date a westerner once but that lasted less than a week - something about how they weren't circumcised...)

Then again, you've got people like myself who've lived overseas extensively (11 years in UK, 7 years in USA) who do consider themselves Chinese.

Probably because we're already professional foreigners wherever we go dammit

[Alinestra Covelia]

Originally posted by DaShi
Ali, I swear that I've seen a Chinese girl who looks just like your avatar at my school here in China. You haven't been taking any trips to Zhejiang recently, have you? Or maybe you do all look alike.

Funny you should mention that.

I did go back to Zhejiang with my dad, but that was in 2002. I met a few relatives there who were living in the ancestral homestead.

However, none look like me because they were all fully Chinese by blood, not half-white like me.

There was one cousin who was really good looking though. I'll try to put her photo online.

[Drake Tungsten]

Historically, it was the strength of the Chinese culture that eventually unified the country after periods of division.

Really? I always thought it was force of arms, sometimes by the Chinese, but oftentimes by "barbarians" like the Mongols and Manchus.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Alinestra Covelia


Funny you should mention that.

I did go back to Zhejiang with my dad, but that was in 2002. I met a few relatives there who were living in the ancestral homestead.

However, none look like me because they were all fully Chinese by blood, not half-white like me.

There was one cousin who was really good looking though. I'll try to put her photo online.

Phone numbers help too.

[Alinestra Covelia]

That's the problem. I don't know her phone number. She's studying at the Hangzhou Business University, if that's any help.

She won an award for one of her essays on Sino-Japanese trade links, and she decided to spend the money on a photo shoot. This is one picture from that.

Bear in mind that she's 23. (!)

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


That means Chen's scheme was foiled. Or rather, not even some members of the DPP want to get their arses fried.

Watered down perhaps, but foiled?? The measure DID pass and it DOES add new provisions that move Taiwan toward possible future independence.

Do they? It looks to me that Chen has played his ace-in-the-hole. Sorta like the Confederates at Gettysburg.

Yes. Chen's deck may also have more than one ace. So far this appears to be the second "ace in the hole" he has played.

In addition, the Confederates were close at Gettysburg...oh so close.

Freedom is such an empty word by now.

Poor UR! The word will never be empty! It may not always be adequately persued by inadequate men, but forever should it be their ideal!! You cannot lose sight of the goal...you must always strive for it...you cannot ever let it go. Once you do, you are destined to never have it.

Renew your faith in freedom, for that is the hope of mankind.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Freedom is such an empty word by now.

You'll have a future in the CCP yet if you keep up with talk like this.

[Alinestra Covelia]

Not really. To really have a future in the CCP, you need to have good inside connections with big business.

Politics don't come into it these days.

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Alinestra Covelia
She won an award for one of her essays on Sino-Japanese trade links, and she decided to spend the money on a photo shoot.

Typical Chinese girl.

Bear in mind that she's 23. (!)

Oh, she's only a year older than my ex, who went insane and fell in love with a cardboard cut out. :sigh:

[Mr. Harley]

Some corrections -

from Nationmaster.com: The Republic of China has a population of 22.2 million. More than 18 million, the "native" Taiwanese are descendants of Chinese who migrated from Fujian and Guangdong Provinces on the mainland, primarily in the 18th and 19th centuries. The "Mainlanders", who arrived on Taiwan after 1945, came from all parts of Mainland China. About 370,000 Taiwanese aborigines inhabit the mountainous central and eastern parts of the island and are believed to be of Malayo-Polynesian origin.

Taiwan has it's own indigenous Chinese who emigrated two plus centuries ago. They consider themselves their own culture, albeit related to China. Chiang Kai-Shek brought the remnents of his dictatorship there and established a nice little authoritarian government. Chen is Taiwanese, and if I remember correctly campaigned in part over just this issue. Taiwan has now become a democracy, with the majority more-or-less indigenous Taiwanese population now having their own government. (the real Taiwanes that are largely confined to the mountains, have minimal rights like most displaced minority indigenous peoples).

Militarily, China might be able to take Taiwan, but the resulting victory would devastate it's military. A missle bombardment would do some damage, but as the Nazis found out, ballistic unguided, or modern semi-guided, missles without WMD warheads do no real military damage. Kill a few civilians, but that typically only increases the support for the goverment that is attacked.

Aviation wise, PRC would have some real problems.

http://idun.its.adfa.edu.au/ADSC/Air/Air_paper_Ji.htm

The Taiwanese aircraft include 60 Mirages ( I cannot remember which model), 150 F-16's, 130 IDF (excellent locally grown air defense fighter), plus some F-5E's still in service. Please note this is mostly from memory, and I don't have a current Jane's as I cannot afford the subscription.

PRC has the aircraft to take these out, but it would be hideously expensive at this time. China would lose at least half, probably more than 80% of it's aviation assets. They have enough aircraft to "human wave" the Taiwanese air defenses, i.e. make the airborne aircraft run out of missles and still have enough aircraft to multi-team the Taiwanese aircraft. Hideously expensive, but workable if you are honest about your aviation capability. The last country I saw that was honest about taking massive losses like that was the Soviet Union in WW2. Any "believe our own propoganda" thoughts could actually lead to the PRC losing the air war, feeding in its air force piecemeal.

However, we just had the case of illegal export of aviation electronics by a Chinese ex-pat ex-human rights type in the US, you have Chinese imports of both air frames and electronics from the Soviet Union, etc. Sometime within the next decade there could be a "sweet spot" for the PRC, when they have superior aircraft and the US has not sold it's newer technology to Taiwan. Taiwan will still probably have overall electronic superiority, but it will be much smaller, lethally so for Taiwan if a conflict ensued.

The PRC has the assets to invade Taiwan if it has air superiority. Taiwan has a nasty small anti-shipping missle, jointly produced with Israel using an enlarged warhead. It's designed to kill small ships, which is what almost all the PRC navy consists of. The PRC would take hideous losses. However, with air superiority they can afford to. The Taiwanese navy would have trouble surviving a conflict, as the PRC has been upgrading and expanding it's submarine fleet as well as it's larger small ships, like destroyers and frigates. The PRC has been purchasing eletronics and ASW equipement from Europe, and has the ability to again inflict defeat on the Taiwanese navy. Just like the air war, the resulting losses would be terrible.

Whether the PRC would have the amphibious assets to succeed after taking the requisite aviation and ship losses is problematic, again based on essentially an honest U.S. Grant type strategy, i.e. let's play meat-grinder. Done from the outset, it can be very effective. However, you cannot play half-measures with this type of strategy.

The more important question is whether the leadership that ordered this blood-letting would survive in power. Look at my signature below. 'Nuf said. As long as there are factions in the PRC leadership, and there is enough balance-of-power that the leader(s) ordering this kind of attack could be kicked out during the next party congress, it won't happen. But if any one group gains total ascendency within the party aparatus, then this scenario vastly increases in possibilty.

One other factor that mitigates against this is the claim-jumping of oil reserves by the PRC in the area of the Spratly Islands. The PRC claim is based on another disputed claim, in this case of an island off the coast of Vietnam, which itself is disputed. The claim is very shakey, the forces backing it are not. However, once it lost most of its navy, the other nations involved in the dispute - Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei (Taiwan is also, but for obvious reasons is discounted given a war with the PRC) - would have the forces to reassert their claims. I have seen reports that this is possibly the largest new offshore field since the North Sea, and again with the PRC's growing hunger for oil, it makes the chance of a military conflict with Taiwan decrease.

In summation, a unified communist party (which means NO internal divisions, which hasn't been the case since Mao) that sees retaining Taiwan as an integral part of the PRC can and will resort to force if it so chooses, and will win. It will also take terrible losses, and could lose oil assets. This doesn't even begin to count the economic disaster that would ensue for the PRC, which other posters have addressed. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not, I agree with most of the posters here. However, that is the problem with totalitarian governments. Once the cadre of people in control gets small enough, they can make decisions that look stupid to the rest of us. I could make a domestic comparison, but that would be trolling.

[mindseye]

Originally posted by Plato
Additionally, it appears that the mainland will not make the necessary concessions to freedom necessary for the reunification to be anything beneficial to Taiwan other than not being attacked.

I don’t see that at all. As Ali noted, the gov't here is in a state of steady transformation, most of it positive. Just look at the case of Hong Kong. While there have been problems since the handover, Hong Kong has not been turned into a police state.

Originally posted by Ned
On communism vs. fascism in China, it would be interesting to see just how much of the economy continued to state owned and planned. Also, do their farmers exist only in communes, etc.

About two years ago the 50% line was crossed, i.e. the private economy contributed more to GDP than SOEs - and the rate of privatization just keeps accelerating and accelerating ... It's endlessly fascinating to watch free market capitalism bloom here in all its manifestations, from mammoth corporations to neighborhood shops. Simply amazing to behold at the speed with which it's progressing!

As for communes, jeez Ned ... have you heard that Chairman Mao has died?

Ali, does China have independent corporations that can make what they choose, sell it for unregulated prices, make as much profit as it can, and distribute dividends to its stockholders?

Yes, in fact there's a stock exchange right here in Shanghai! The amount of gov't interference depends on the industry. For instance, a private publishing house has to walk a fine and constantly changing line that a publicly-traded disposable-diaper manufacturer would never have to deal with. For most corporations, I think official corruption is a far larger problem than any kind of official interference. Most gov't officials want to grow, grow, grow their burgeoning local private sectors - not restrict them!

Questions like this remind me of how dated many westerners' views of China are. Some contemporary indicators of urban life in China (lead by Shanghai):

Gone: rickshaws, Mao suits, sidewalk dentists, communes, little red books, people calling each other "comrade", backyard iron smelts

Happening: private auto ownership, pizza, home broadband internet access, personal satellite dishes (latest ad under my door promised, among other things, the Playboy channel), cool electric scooters, tattoos, gay pin-up magazines at public newsstands , and the latest: just found a bong shop in Shanghai


Where the communes once stood:

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by shawnmmcc
A missle bombardment would do some damage, but as the Nazis found out, ballistic unguided, or modern semi-guided, missles without WMD warheads do no real military damage.

What are you talking about? These are missiles, not unguided rockets. The arsenal now also include cruise missiles and long range ASM and anti-radiation missiles.

As I said, that wouldn't be necessary. A missile flies overhead of Taipei will cause a few tens of billions of dollars to evaporate from the market.

[Kuciwalker]

"[The separatist forces] are set to pay a high cost if they think we will not use force against their conspiracy to promote formal independence."

It's a conspiracy to promote independence? Last time I checked, the PRC did not rule Taiwan

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Alinestra Covelia
Not really. To really have a future in the CCP, you need to have good inside connections with big business.

Mea Culpa. I was confused by all of the goose stepping UR was doing.

UR: Your missile idea has been done. Taiwan is still here.

[Ned]

Mindseye, thanks for your post. But, this raises the question, in what way is China still communist at all?