Major League Baseball Discussion: Offseason

[Brundlefly]

Six Analysts from ESPN's Baseball Tonight name Phillies most improved team

I won't gloat. Nuff said...

Phillies fans are happy that JD Drew is in Atlanta. This will only intensify our hate for him and make us that much happier when the Phils grind him and the rest of the Braves into the dirt of the NL East with their heel. Braves had better hope that Millwood signs elsewhere otherwise no team in MLB will have a better 5-man rotation than Philly....

[Arrian]

I won't gloat.

Good. Gloating in the offseason is a bad idea. It's what happens on the field that matters.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

the market, as has been said, was inflated

Yep... 5 years ago was almost a lifetime apart from the market these days. The owners all decided that since they losing money, better not to go crazy on bidding for FAs. In that market, Manny was paid what he was worth. Remember Ramirez is a GREAT player, just a pain in the clubhouse.

when the Phils grind him and the rest of the Braves into the dirt of the NL East with their heel.

Didn't the Phils say that this past year as well?

The Braves may be hurting, but they won't go away quietly, and the Phils have very badly underachieved lately. Perhaps that bullpen will prevent that, but like Arrian said, have to see it first.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

AROD ISNT COMING TO RED SOX. W00000T. HE DID IT FOR THE MONEY AND NOW HE GETS WHAT HE DESERVES - A CELLAR MASTER TEAM. NOMAR AND MANNY ARE THE HEART OF THE TEAM. SCREW ORDONEZ. WE DONT NEED MORE OFFENSE, WE NEED MORE PITCHING, AND WE GOT IT. NOW IF WE'RE MANAGED PROPERLY, ITS ALL THE WAY BABY.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think you may look back on that statement and pout if you lose in the playoffs. A-Rod & Ordonez > Nomar & Manny. No contest in that weighing.

And I wonder if you think that Manny and Schilling didn't do it for the money .

[Brundlefly]

ESPN.com reports Millwood accepts arbitration to stay with Phils.

Realistically, there is no clear cut winner in NL East this year.
I mean, the Phils on paper look like favorites but will there be another Florida to shock everyone again? Who would have predicted Florida's World Championship, Chicago's resurgence and Montreal and Minnesota being competitive? Clearly this proves managing skills has something to do with it. I am not confident in Bowa's ability to manage a team to the World Series - especially a bunch of mega-millionaires (and they just extended his contract through '07 today). Two main pieces of their offense are question marks - Burrell and Bell.

You're right. We'll see. 11 years out of the playoffs is way too long, though....

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Actually there is contest. I don't know if you've ever been on a sports team, but a lot of times it is better to have someone who leads and who is popular and who already has proven himself to his teammates than someone who is new but is better.

And if you think we lost because of offense, look again. We lost because of a managing mistake and lack of pitching. The rain delay actually kept the sox in it longer than they shoulda, since we were able to go thru the top three in the rotation again.

Manny did it because Dan Duquette was stupid enough to give it to him. Schilling didn't do it for the money. He recognized the Dbacks as a sinking ship, and didn't want to go to the Yankees. So he went to the next best alternative.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

The A's and the Giant's have both been gutted. Barry Bonds will break his single season walk record since there is nobody behind him whos got power. Baker was the genius behind the giants run, not Sabean and now we can see what an idiot the giants GM is.
The yankees dont look strong at all right now. They still are the yankees, with derek and jorge, but Sheffield doesnt seem like a yankee, and nor does kevin brown. I'm thinking that the sox have a chance to win the division this year, if schilling returns to form.

[Brundlefly]

LOA, how do you feel about Francona as manager? I can't believe there wasn't a better choice out there. He lost control of the team when he was with the Phillies.

[Arrian]

I'd give the Sox the edge on paper, right now. But you never know.

It only takes 1 major injury, or 1 down season from a key player, and *boom* there go all the predictions. Boston shares something with NYC, too: the media pressure. I don't expect a player like Shilling or Foulke to suddenly wilt in that situation, but you honestly never know until the player is placed in the position. Being a Yankee has eaten players up and spit them out. Same thing applies to the Red Sox.

-Arrian

[Lawrence of Arabia]

LOA, how do you feel about Francona as manager? I can't believe there wasn't a better choice out there. He lost control of the team when he was with the Phillies.

Personally, I would have kept Grady Little. I feel that he did make that pitching mistake during game 7, but I dont think that one bad decision should be enough to condemn a man. He juggled the bullpen the entire year, and made the right decision in benching Kim. I feel that the red sox organization is too much into stats as it is, and that grady little was the balancing force against the stat gurus. While baseball is a lot about stats, there's also a team, and a team needs unity, which cannot be quanitified.

[Imran Siddiqui]

a lot of times it is better to have someone who leads and who is popular and who already has proven himself to his teammates than someone who is new but is better.

Yes, but this ain't that time. Especially when you get of a clubhouse cancer in Manny. Boston has plenty of leaders outside of Nomar. A-Rod is a substantial upgrade, offensively AND defensively.

And if you think we lost because of offense, look again. We lost because of a managing mistake and lack of pitching.

Well if Boston gets rid of Ramirez (which they look hell bent on doing), the offense may be a bit more of a problem. When you are facing the Yankees, a little more offense hurts no one.

Schilling didn't do it for the money. He recognized the Dbacks as a sinking ship, and didn't want to go to the Yankees. So he went to the next best alternative.

Why is Boston or NY the best alternatives? BECAUSE THEY CAN PAY THE MOST! Schilling has always been an NL pitcher, who now is moving to the AL. A better alternative for him would have been to go to San Francisco or even Atlanta.

Baker was the genius behind the giants run, not Sabean and now we can see what an idiot the giants GM is.

Aroo?! Alou seemed to do a pretty damned good job. Baker has always been overrated, IMO. He's always had the talent. That and he kills the arms of young pitchers.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Yes, but this ain't that time. Especially when you get of a clubhouse cancer in Manny. Boston has plenty of leaders outside of Nomar. A-Rod is a substantial upgrade, offensively AND defensively.

There is always a time for leaders because when the **** hits the fan, if there is no one there to show the way, even a good team will go down the crapper. And during the season, there will always be those times when everything goes wrong, and for teams based on stats, this is where they fall apart.

Well if Boston gets rid of Ramirez (which they look hell bent on doing), the offense may be a bit more of a problem. When you are facing the Yankees, a little more offense hurts no one.

Which is why we should keep Manny and Nomar.

Why is Boston or NY the best alternatives? BECAUSE THEY CAN PAY THE MOST! Schilling has always been an NL pitcher, who now is moving to the AL. A better alternative for him would have been to go to San Francisco or even Atlanta.

First of all everyone knows the braves suck. So do the giants, so thats not an option. He wants to win a ring. Which team has the most chance of winning one? The Yanks. Like any great person, he hates the yankees, so instead of signing with them he goes to the yankee killahs, the sox.

Aroo?! Alou seemed to do a pretty damned good job. Baker has always been overrated, IMO. He's always had the talent. That and he kills the arms of young pitchers.

yeah I also think alou did a good job. I dont think baker was overrated. He took the cubs and made them a playoff contender, even if a lot of the pieces were already in place. Sabean on the other hand has pretty much screwed the giants pitching for this year.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Schilling signed with the Sox because he believes that they could win it all this year, and he's such a baseball historian that to be a part of the team that "breaks the curse" would be tops for him.

Also, Pedro said he would be willing to take a pay cut in order to pitch with Schilling for a few years. PEDRO said this...

[Lawrence of Arabia]

The same one who wupped on Don Zimmer. At least the Zimmerman saw the light and jumped ship. If Yanks dont win this year, I'm thinking Torre is done. Or maybe Cashman. Or maybe both.

[Imran Siddiqui]

There is always a time for leaders because when the **** hits the fan, if there is no one there to show the way, even a good team will go down the crapper. And during the season, there will always be those times when everything goes wrong, and for teams based on stats, this is where they fall apart.

Ya GOT leaders. You just bought one in Curt Schilling. Johnny Damon is also a leader-type guy, who leads more by example. Nomar wouldn't hurt the leadership of this team.

Which is why we should keep Manny and Nomar.

You misunderstand. Losing Manny would hurt the offense if you don't get someone who is equal to Manny in terms of offensive production. A-Rod is definetly an equal to Manny... I mean, anytime you have the ability to get the best player in the league (AL) for one player, you usually should jump on it.

And, whether you want to believe it or not, Ordonez is as good offensively as Nomar. Since the wrist injury, Nomar has been no where NEAR the almost .400 hitter he used to be (though he's still better than Jeter... Jeter sucks ).

That and you upgrade the defense. A-Rod is better defensively than Nomar, and Ordonez is BY FAR better defensively than Manny.

First of all everyone knows the braves suck. So do the giants, so thats not an option. He wants to win a ring. Which team has the most chance of winning one?

The Braves only won 101 games... they suck right?

And the Giants won the same. Anytime you win a 100 games, you automatically do not suck.

Sabean on the other hand has pretty much screwed the giants pitching for this year.

Well, he tried to make the run last year by trading prospects. Sometimes GMs do that and actually win out. Then again Ponson isn't that bad.

[Vlad Antlerkov]

Hijacking this a bit. Feel free to ignore this.

Statistically, going by the unadjusted career batting stats, the ten most similar players to Nomar Garciaparra:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/garcino01.shtml

Miguel Tejada (824)
Derek Jeter (820)
Glenn Wright (819)
Magglio Ordonez (807)
Scott Rolen (801)
Vladimir Guerrero (800)
John Valentin (788)
Rich Aurilia (786)
Jose Valentin (780)
Brian Giles (777)

(Nomar doesn't show up on Magglio's list, what with Nomar being a power-hitting middle-infielder, which is historically rare, and Magglio being a power-hitting corner OF, which is historically more common. The similarity between the two scores at 807, which is close to not being meaningful.)

A-Rod's comp list:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml

Mike Piazza (841)
Chipper Jones (811)
Manny Ramirez (793)
Jeff Kent (763)
Joe Gordon (758)
Jim Thome (756)
Derek Jeter (753)
Hack Wilson (752) *
Ralph Kiner (751) *
Vern Stephens (744)

(Again, A-Rod isn't anywhere near Manny's ten best comps, and this is close to not being meaningful.)

If you want something slightly more meaningful, the best comps for some players through that player's current age:

Nomar: Ernie Banks (863) (Makes some sense)
A-Rod: Junior Griffey (781) (ditto)
Jeter: Alan Trammell (905) (No, the Similarity Scores method only considers defensive position. It doesn't consider defensive quality. Joe Torre is third on the list, FWIW.)
Manny: Frank Thomas (898) (Albert Belle is second at 882, list also includes Ted Williams...)
Magglio: Wally Berger (958) (Makes some sense)
Vlad Guerrero: Willie Mays (929) ( )
Soriano: Joe Gordon (933) (see comments on Jeter and Trammell. Juan Samuel is fifth.)
Sheffield: Duke Snider (922) (Not promising, is it?)
Schilling: Bret Saberhagen (935) (Eep.)
Foulke: Mel Rojas (970) (interestingly, Byung-Hyun Kim is second on his career comp list...)

[Imran Siddiqui]

Ah I see you've been having fun at baseballreference .

I love that site, don't you?

Another fun site:

http://www.baseballgraphs.com/winshares/

Name - Team - Position - Hitting Win Shares - Fielding WS - Pitching WS - Sum - Win Shares

M Ramirez - BOS - OF - 25.27 - 2.32 - 0.00 - 27.59 -28
N Garciaparra - BOS - SS - 19.22 - 5.98 - 0.00 - 25.19 -25


M Ordonez - CWS - OF - 19.63 - 3.18 - 0.00 - 22.80 - 23
A Rodriguez - TEX - SS - 26.08 - 6.43 - 0.00 - 32.51 - 32

Added together:

Manny + Nomar = 28+25= 53
Ordonez + A-Rod = 23+32= 55

Not a great difference, but you upgrade on defense in both positions. A-Rod is better batting and fielding than Nomar, and because he played on a worse team, his Win Shares mark is more impressive. Manny is better than Ordonez by 5 WS (all hitting), but he is also a clubhouse cancer.

[Brundlefly]

Well NL hitters get to spend some time with the Rocket this year. I guess Cubs will try twice as hard to sign Maddux now. I never thought I would sympathize with Yankee fans, but it kind of sucks when a guy says he is retiring and then snubs you to come back with a different team. But that is MLB 2004 for you. I'm glad that Vlad is out of NL now. He always crushed the Phils.

[OzzyKP]

I hear there is some affinity between Pudge and the Tigers.

[Stuie]

Originally posted by bfg9000
Well NL hitters get to spend some time with the Rocket this year.

...and NL Pitchers get to spend some time Clemens.