Countries most likely to unite/split in our lifetime

monkspider · January 5, 2004, 01:00

most likely to unite
Korea
Scandinavia
various central american countries

most likely to split
United States
China
Russia

Chilean President™ · January 5, 2004, 01:02

the US?

down here one country that could split tomorrow is that messed up nation called Bolivia.

Nubclear · January 5, 2004, 01:06

Quote:

Originally posted by monkspider
most likely to unite
Korea
Scandinavia
various central american countries

most likely to split
United States
China
Russia

China?

Mordoch · January 5, 2004, 01:09

Quote:

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar

China?

Its not complete unjustified as beyond the free Tibet issue, there are also some Muslim seperatist movements in some areas. I'd list some other countries as more likely to split though.

Chilean President™ · January 5, 2004, 01:10

China's army would squash the separatists.

Mordoch · January 5, 2004, 01:12

Quote:

Originally posted by Chilean President
China's army would squash the separatists.

I think a scenario in which it could occur would be something similar to China's current regime being overthrown and certain republics declaring their independance.

Shi Huangdi · January 5, 2004, 01:13

Unite?

Ireland, if demographics continue to make Catholics a larger share of the population in Northern Ireland

Korea could, if the NK regime is to ever collapse. Not too likely though.

If it happens it would likely be very late our life time, but it is possible we might see something resembling a United European nation.

Split?

Iraq and Afghanistan could if things don't go to well, hopefully that can be avoided.

Indonesia is pretty diverse and it's always possible seperatists would triumph there.

Russia and China both face the problem of Islamic seperatists, but I think countries are strong enough to hold on to their territory.

monkspider · January 5, 2004, 01:17

Good list Shi.

GePap · January 5, 2004, 01:20

Agree that Shi's list is the best offered.

Chechnya is sad proof of the length some states go to maintain their borders unchanged. The Chinese would be no less brutal.

Add one thought- Taiwan somehow ending up part of one China again.

Spiffor · January 5, 2004, 01:22

Monkspider:
I wonder how you could get the idea of a uniting Scandinavia. For all intent and purposes, they are already very close to each other, and they are integrated in the EU. I fail to see what would be the purpose of them uniting. But I sure see the political inconvenience that would be (many political headaches, and always some nationalist remnants whining about some war of X*100 years ago)

DanS · January 5, 2004, 01:31

split
Sudan
Nigeria
Ivory Coast
Indonesia
Iraq

Russia won't split, because autonomy will be the fall back.

unify
China/Taiwan
S. Korea/N. Korea
Ireland/N. Ireland
Russia/Belarus

Chilean President™ · January 5, 2004, 01:33

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
unify
Ireland/N. Ireland

as the Republic of Ireland or the United Kingdom of Britain and Ireland?

DanS · January 5, 2004, 01:34

Republic of Ireland, of course.

Chilean President™ · January 5, 2004, 01:38

great. I'll love to see that coming

DanS · January 5, 2004, 01:41

Edited in Russia/Belarus as unified.

Nubclear · January 5, 2004, 01:45

One would think Russia and Ukraine would unify.

DanS · January 5, 2004, 01:47

Too busy fighting over useless plots of land and water.

Zylka · January 5, 2004, 02:03

CALGARY

Flip McWho · January 5, 2004, 03:12

I agree with Ireland uniting.

Don't think China and Taiwan will but you never know. Also don't think the US will ever split. Just seems out of character.

Mr. President · January 5, 2004, 03:18

Indonesia is a strong candidate to split, not so much because separatists are strong on any global scale but because the post-Suharto governments are so weak.

I read a book which suggests that there will eventually be an overwhelming secessionist demand in Scotland.

Jon Miller · January 5, 2004, 03:19

EU
Jon Miller

Mordoch · January 5, 2004, 03:24

Quote:

Originally posted by Crimson Sunrise
Indonesia is a strong candidate to split, not so much because separatists are strong on any global scale but because the post-Suharto governments are so weak.

I read a book which suggests that there will eventually be an overwhelming secessionist demand in Scotland.

The fact its a long string of islands with different ethnic groups in different locations increases the odds. The geography means that if a decent size island is taken over by seperatists, the government may have to launch an amphibious invasion to retake the island. While a longterm blockade to force the seperatists to seek peace of Indonesia's terms might work, but this only can be employed with no foreign intervention occuring. A US Naval taskforce or even something like an Austrian/UN naval force would be sufficient to stop the Indonisian Navy from employing a blockade.

notyoueither · January 5, 2004, 03:41

I'm surprised no one thinks Canada will split. True, demographics may be favouring Quebec staying (I think) but a really charismatic pied piper could come along.

Tripledoc · January 5, 2004, 03:43

It think it was George Kennan, the man behind the X in the famous article in Foreign affairs on the containment of USSR, who once suggested that the United States be split into four different entities. That way it would be easier to rule if there was a capital in all four corners. I have never understood why the capital is placed on the Eastern Seaboard. It should be in the middle. Or there should be four.

Other suggestions.
Corsica will split from France.
Gibraltar will join Spain.
England will be a rump state with Wales and Scotland fully independent.
Cypress will unite.
Palestine will split from Israel.
Greenland and the Faroes will split from Denmark
Scandia split from Sweden and join Denmark.
Montenegro will split from Serbia.
Kosovo will join Albania.
Taiwan and China will unite.

Jon Shafer · January 5, 2004, 03:52

Quote:

Originally posted by Tripledoc
I have never understood why the capital is placed on the Eastern Seaboard. It should be in the middle. Or there should be four.

Maybe because it was in the middle back when the US was founded?

And why does it matter? This ain't Civ 3 ya know.

Flip McWho · January 5, 2004, 04:17

Quote:

And why does it matter? This ain't Civ 3 ya know

What it ain't?

I wonder why Wellington is basically in the middle of NZ then. I mean well Aucklands corrupt and thats the biggest city north ways and well the bottom of the South Island is all 1 shield towns.

Jon Shafer · January 5, 2004, 04:21

Maybe the Kiwi government has some plans for Antarctic colonization.

Flip McWho · January 5, 2004, 04:25

God. I hope not. We have enough problems with foreshore and land issues now without the big crap we'll get over foreshore/land issues in Antartica.

Donegeal · January 5, 2004, 04:30

I agree with NYE on the Quebec deal. Maybe not this year, but I think it will probably happen. I think that there have been two votes there in the last 10 years about separating. Both lost, but not by a large margin.

Flip McWho · January 5, 2004, 04:39

Really. I must try to keep up with whats happening in the world. This place seems to be my source of world news.

Wonder why so many places are thinking about trying it on their own? Doesn't make much sense to me. I thought that uniting in similar ways as the EU would be the way of the future. Hmmmmm.