Countries most likely to unite/split in our lifetime

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by DanS
Edited in Russia/Belarus as unified.

That's hardly possible. To Russia, the only acceptable way of unification is for Belarus to become a part of the Russian Federation. Belarus will never agree to that. To Belarus, the only acceptable way is the USSR scenario, i.e. formation of a union state where both Russia and Belarus are just republics. Russia can't accept that.

[Mr. President]

Originally posted by Tattila the Hun


Jeez, if they got Mechas, they're strong enough, in my book. Imagine the firepower... :drool:

Not Mecha, MECha. May-cha. Learn some English!

[Impaler[WrG]]

In regards to all proposed European splits/mergers.

I would think that the likly senario will be one inwhich the Central E.U. Goverment slowly strengthins and becomes more a Confederation of hundreds of Provinces rather then a handfull of states. So Scotland will send its representatives, Wales will send some, Each Province of France, Germany and Italy will send their ect ect. The National Goverments will still exist and these representatives and deligates will still likly be funneled through this layer but it will become incressingly symbolic. This would seem to be the natural situation because everyone can "win", European nations have always had well defined and destinct Provinces and regions with destinct cultural differences. A degree of Freedom from their traditonal National goverment will please seperatist as long as Brussels is not too strong and the economy stays good. At the same time the unifiers get the Central EU goverments to exceed or equal National goverments in power. Basicaly national goverments losse as they are incressingly squezed by provincial independence from below and Brussels from above. Thus all European nations are both split and merged to a degree.

[Combat Ingrid]

I read somewhere that in a poll in Belarus, some 60% said they would vote "yes" to join Russia. In the same poll, some 60% said they would vote "yes" to join the EU.
Something tells me they're not very happy with their current government

[Mazarin]

Impaler[WrG], that's the only way the EU can work in the long term, imo (not hundreds of regions though...30-40 could be enough)

[Impaler[WrG]]

Marzan: How many provinces/regions do countries like France, Germany and Italy have. I Had always thouth it to be aobut 100 each. Thus the total would be several hundread for all of Western Europe. Thats rougly equal to the number of Representivies in the US lower House or in the parliments of most European countries yes? If its limited to 30-40 Regions total then your looking at only 3-4 regions per country which is much to small to match the pre-existing Province structure in most European States. Do you think it more likly that new districts would be created that are roughly equal in population or that pre-existing provinces will be used with varrying numbers of deligates to acount for population varriations?

[OliverFA]

It seems very unlikely to me that those "provinces" with recent gained sovereignty would happily give it to the central EU government. No, if any current European state splits the new state won't want to give their new adcquired identity. Probably they agree to rejoin EU, but only as long as it stays as a loose less-than-federation.

On the other hand, as long as some states continue to try to convert EU in a way to increase their power and effectively conquer the other European countries (France, Germany) that project will never succeed.

[Ecthy]

Germany will finally unite, bringing the New Reichsmark (euro) to all of Europe

[Mazarin]

Impaler, hundreds of provinces seems to be inefficient to me, because I want them to be able to act actively and independently on many subjects (e.g. infrastructure, parts of taxation, culture). To be able to do that, a certain "critical size" will be needed, probably an average of 5-10 mill. people at least.

[VetLegion]

Kosovo could formally become an independant state - I don't think Kosovars would like to join Albania that much.

Macedonian Albanians could also some day split up.

Bosnia - you never know with Bosnia.

[chequita guevara]

Plus the Albanians don't want Kosovo.

[VetLegion]

Why not? I'd bet it has a better GDP/capita than Albania proper.

[chequita guevara]

Because Albania has a significant Christian minority and they don't want to be swamped by Muslims. Also, the Kossovars are of a different "tribe" than the majority of Albanians in the South.

[Ecthy]

Austria is a different tribe from the rest of Germany, yet we still want them

[MrFun]

Just like United States will always want to keep Texas -- in spite of the people that live in that state.

[Theben]

Originally posted by Japher
What of a Basque nation?

I thought about it. But I'm pretty sure the Basques have put as much energy into separation in the past as they will in the future. They haven't succeeded yet, and the central govt of Spain doesn't seem to be interested in letting go.

So I didn't include them. But others here should know more than I (Oliver?).

[Japher]

@MrFun

(it's been a while since I've done that...)

Cuba will join Puerto Rico, the two Island Nations will become the 51st state, and be known as Japherland.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Japher
@MrFun

(it's been a while since I've done that...)

Cuba will join Puerto Rico, the two Island Nations will become the 51st state, and be known as Japherland.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Most likely to unite:

Gondor and Arnor

Most likely to divide:

Mordor

Isenguard

[OliverFA]

Originally posted by Theben
They haven't succeeded yet, and the central govt of Spain doesn't seem to be interested in letting go.

So I didn't include them. But others here should know more than I (Oliver?).

As I said in my first post in this thread, Spain is in a real danger of spliting in several pieces. As you wisely point the nationalists are trying as hard as they have always tried. The difference is that now the socialist party is de facto 17 smaller parties, one for each autonomous region, and with a very weak leadership. So right now there is just one national party in the Right to defend the country and nothing in the Left.

Even if I tend to sympathize with the Right ideals I don't like this situation. We need at lest two big parties, one in the Right and one in the Left. The Goverment has some flaws, but when I see at the "oposition" proposals they are just foolish utopias. This hurts the system because the government is in no real need to innovate or do things better, because they already are the best option by far

If the Rights don't get the absolute majority in March elections, all the other parties will unite in a collage with just two ideas in common: Removing the first party from power and getting as much as they can for their small group of interest.

[Tripledoc]

Originally posted by OliverFA
On the other hand, as long as some states continue to try to convert EU in a way to increase their power and effectively conquer the other European countries (France, Germany) that project will never succeed.

Funny that a person loyal to Spain should complain of France and Germany subverting the EU process. Granted, convincing Spain to join the EU was a difficult process that meant they were given a monstrous part of the EU fishing quota, so they they currently have the largest fishing fleet in Europe. The subsidies, paid largely by Germany, to Spanish cash crop agriculture also sweetened the deal a great deal.

Currently the Spanish and Polish governmnent are in collusion, an unstable alliance if there ever was one, to squeeze the lemon further from the Eu agreement on agriculture. These two countries were largely to blame for the failed attempt at a common constitution. Now obviously the Spanish people and the Polish people is very much in favour of peace and a united Europe. It is therefore regretful that the lie that the Eu is a French- German project to dominate Europe is still being purported by reactioanry traditionalist of the Franco persuasion.

The basic problem to be solved is to secure a stable and secure food supply for ALL of Europe. That some people, amongst them the quoted gentleman, would continue to hold on to fanatically nationalist ideas where everyone is for themselves is proof that the efforts towards integration should be redoubled.

[The Andy-Man]

i've a feeling eastern europe will somehow unify in someway (outside of the EU). other then that, the likleyhood, i htink, is going to be for tiny states to et slowly absorbed by bigger ones.

[Tripledoc]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
i've a feeling eastern europe will somehow unify in someway (outside of the EU). other then that, the likleyhood, i htink, is going to be for tiny states to et slowly absorbed by bigger ones.

Yes that would obviosly be the dream scenario for the British nomenclature. Unfortunately Poland is now a democracy and not the ante-bellum authoritarian dictotarship of yore. Likewise while the Czech Republic and Slovakia have a somewhat tainted record in their recent treatment of the Romani population, they are nowhere near as xenephobic as the government of Benes. Therefore there is no basis for a British intervention in Eastern Europe. No policy strings to play on at all.

Likewise there is no other forceful will at play but the Scandiavian, German and French people to collectivize further and work harder in order to placate the seemingly insatiable consumer demand of the present 'neo-liberal' governments in Eastern Europe, who of course are under the spell of international finance.

This time the first shot will not be fired in Europe I can assure you.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by OliverFA
It seems very unlikely to me that those "provinces" with recent gained sovereignty would happily give it to the central EU government.

I think it has more to do with 'communitarism', as in more provinces but less federations. I'm sure the Basques, the Scots, the Catalans, etc, would like to have semi-autonomy with their own voice in something similar to the EU.

About Quebec:

Ben Kenobi, if you think separatism has anything to do with passports, then you should just shut up.

Personally, I doubt Quebec will ever get its sovereignty. But it is still possible. Separatist sentiment tends to rise in times of crisis, and the current trend towards globalization means Quebecers could get real angry if Americans take over their drinking water (largest reserve in the world), or if the government starts privatization of public companies. Then there is also the possibility of an economic depression in the West (which separatist movements love).

[The Andy-Man]

Originally posted by Tripledoc


Yes that would obviosly be the dream scenario for the British nomenclature. Unfortunately Poland is now a democracy and not the ante-bellum authoritarian dictotarship of yore. Likewise while the Czech Republic and Slovakia have a somewhat tainted record in their recent treatment of the Romani population, they are nowhere near as xenephobic as the government of Benes. Therefore there is no basis for a British intervention in Eastern Europe. No policy strings to play on at all.

you make some good points, but i am confused as to where british intervention comes into this

as far as E. Europe, i think they will be forced together from the simple fact they are in between the EU on the one hand, and Russia on the other. Realpolitik would be the main force behind it all imo.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris
About Quebec:

Ben Kenobi, if you think separatism has anything to do with passports, then you should just shut up.

I think he was commenting on what was reported outside of Quebec, that some of the sovereigntist arguments could have misled some people in Quebec to think they could have the best of both Canada and independence.

It was widely thought out here that some people thought that they could have Canadian passports and the Canadian dollar, but do everything else on their own. It was thought that this increased the numbers voting 'Oui'.

And why the heck should any Canadian shut up about the fate of our own country? More than just the people of Quebec have a stake in this, I think.

[Tripledoc]

By British intervention I mean the constant German and French bashing that has come out Downing street in the last 20 years or so.

Take Thatcher who stated in a speech that Germany would always and has always been seeking to be the dominant power on the continent, and therfore it will continue to be a threat to British interests.

One recent laughable example was when current Labour foreign minister Jack Straw lectured the French that resistance to US imperialism would be futile in the view of history. This man has no honour.

Regarding Russia I don't think that they would find the EU particularily worrying. It is NATO that they consider a source of destabilization. After all the EU has had no militarist tradtion of imposing it's will on subjected people, unlike NATO.

Edit: This was a reply to Andy man's previous comment.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by notyoueither


I think he was commenting on what was reported outside of Quebec, that some of the sovereigntist arguments could have misled some people in Quebec to think they could have the best of both Canada and independence.

It was widely thought out here that some people thought that they could have Canadian passports and the Canadian dollar, but do everything else on their own. It was thought that this increased the numbers voting 'Oui'.

And why the heck should any Canadian shut up about the fate of our own country? More than just the people of Quebec have a stake in this, I think.

All right. I was just commenting on his ignorance, not on the fact that he should not talk about his country...

Anyway- this is OT-

I don't see why Canada wouldn't accept some sort of economic/monetary/custom union with Quebec in the case of independance. This would benefit both countries in the long run.

[notyoueither]

For many in ROC, the overwhelming impulse would be for a resounding 'No' to such ideas if Quebec voted 'Yes', depending on subsequent events.

I agree that that would be spiteful, and not necessarily what would would happen, but It is very likely. I think.

[Lancer]

KURDISTAN anybody? It could come into existance by splitting from Iraq and the US couldn't really do much to stop it. If it split from Iraq would the US
support it in the face of a possible Turkish invasion? Remember, they would have the northern oil fields.

Kurdistan splitting from Iraq could eventually lead to Iran and Turkey splitting.