Countries most likely to unite/split in our lifetime

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
The folks in Quebec only agree with sovereignty when they think it means they can keep Canadian passports.

If Bourassa had kept his word, independence would have been a done deal in 92.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Richelieu
If Bourassa had kept his word, independence would have been a done deal in 92.

I am curious, why?

[Lancer]

"KURDISTAN anybody? It could come into existance by splitting from Iraq and the US couldn't really do much to stop it. If it split from Iraq would the US
support it in the face of a possible Turkish invasion? Remember, they would have the northern oil fields.

Kurdistan splitting from Iraq could eventually lead to Iran and Turkey splitting."

Damn right.

[Richelieu]

After the Meech lake failure, independence was polling at around 70% after Bourassa made a speech in the legislature saying that Quebec was and would always be free to choose what it wanted to do. (Libre de ses choix was the expression he used i believe.)
Imagine: the PQ and the Libs were basically saying the same thing! I remember Parizeau (the old bastard was then leader of the PQ) saying that he extended his hand in help to his premier.
After that the Liberal party rewrote it's own constitution and the Constitutional platform asked for a referendum to be held within the mandate (i don't remember the exact timeline).
Of course Bourassa was not only a strong federalist, he was also a real politician. He never intended to hold a referendum on independance. Instead he joined forces with the feds for the Charlottetown accord and said that he had fulfilled the referendum obligation in the party's platform by doing so.
Some in the party - including Mario Dumont and the guy who had basically written the Libs constitutional position- didn't appreciate that and split. They created the Action Democratique party that Dumont still leads today.

[notyoueither]

Is that a good thing or a bad thing, that Bourassa did not hold a referendum that would have resulted in 'Oui' winning?

That would have been quite the picture, a federalist starting the ball in motion for seperation.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by notyoueither
Is that a good thing or a bad thing, that Bourassa did not hold a referendum that would have resulted in 'Oui' winning?

That would have been quite the picture, a federalist starting the ball in motion for seperation.

I think it's the only way you could have gotten a really significant majority on the Oui side: if both major parties had united on the same side. In my mind, the results would probably have been around 65 -35.
Having the leader of the Libs put things in motion instead of the PQ also would have lent some more credibility to the process IMO, and that can't hurt when you talk about negociations after the fact, international recognition for a new state, etc...

I'd just love to know what question they would have asked this time.

[Dauphin]

Would an independent Quebec be interested in joining the EU?

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by Big Crunch
Would an independent Quebec be interested in joining the EU?

You will certainly find some bozo around here who is going to try. He may even get himself elected.


EDIT: Hypothetically speaking... of course.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by GePap
Agree that Shi's list is the best offered.

Chechnya is sad proof of the length some states go to maintain their borders unchanged. The Chinese would be no less brutal.

Add one thought- Taiwan somehow ending up part of one China again.

Taiwan was never part of China, so how could they be part of China one again? Read their history, I have.

Joseph

[Oncle Boris]

Richelieu is right. Bourassa's memory is despised. He can go to history's junk for all I care.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by Joseph
Taiwan was never part of China, so how could they be part of China one again? Read their history, I have.

Joseph

Wasn't Taiwan Chinese before the Japanese conquest of the 19th century? (circa 1877 I think).

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Tripledoc
Gibraltar will join Spain.

Big vote last year, Spain lost by a big margin. I don't remember the numbers.

England will be a rump state with Wales and Scotland fully independent.

Scotland was going to vote on it, what happen?

Cypress will unite.

Greeks and Turks, you must be kidding.

Palestine will split from Israel.

You mean that Israel will give up some land.

Montenegro will split from Serbia.

They should have 5 years ago.

Kosovo will join Albania.

Kosovo is the homeland of the Serbs, and it should remain with Serbia.

Taiwan and China will unite.

I hope not. Taiwan has never been part of China and should never be part of China. Taiwan should be Independent Taiwan.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Joseph
Big vote last year, Spain lost by a big margin. I don't remember the numbers.

187 people voted Yes, as compared with 17,900 who voted No

Scotland was going to vote on it, what happen?

They voted on a parliament, which has been running for about 4 years. Other than that I'm not sure what you thought they were voting on.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Whoha

California will probably try to join mexico at some point, the other border states may as well. this will be particularly violent.

As long as I can hold a gun in my hand, that's not going to happen.
My Great Grandfather was born at sea while his mother and Father was coming to LA Calif (1830), My Grandfather was born in LA (1870), My mother, Modesto Ca (1906), and me Modesto Ca. (1944). My Grandmother Highway 49 gold country (1872).

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Theben
Add Pakistan to the split list.

Continued US support to the current regime could trigger a civil war in the western, pro-Taliban provinces.

That would be great for the US. Then we could bomb the sh!t out of the state.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by C0ckney
it saddens me that englishmen can talk seriously about abandoning northern ireland to the catholics

NO SURRENDER TO THE IRA!

Keep this in mine the next time you said that. England invaded Ireland some 900 year ago and move Englishmen to Ireland to take over the country.

[Oncle Boris]

That would be great for the US. Then we could bomb the sh!t out of the state.

Keep this in mine the next time you said that. England invaded Ireland some 900 year ago and move Englishmen to Ireland to take over the country.

I hope you are a master of sarcasm. Because if this has got to be stupidity, then you're a Grand Master in it.

[Joseph]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


Wasn't Taiwan Chinese before the Japanese conquest of the 19th century? (circa 1877 I think).

No. When the Dutch found the island (1600s), no and I mean no Chinese lived there. The island people were polynesian. The polynesian there at the time told the Dutch they did not know how long they had lived on the Island but all said their Grandfather had live there and their Grandfather had live there. They told the Dutch that from time to time Chinese pirates would come and hid from the Chinese Navy. After the Dutch settle there, they needed people to work for them with no pay (slaves). So the Dutch when to south central China and pick up whoever they could buy and took them to Taiwan. And that is how the Chinese came to Taiwan. Some early Chinese Goverments knew about Taiwan, but did not try to settle it.

Here is a another one I just found out about. Iwo Jima and it's other island was found by the American Navy and not by the Japanese. We told them about the Island and later they came and claim them for Japan, but our Navy had Naval Station on them for some time.

[TheStinger]

Originally posted by Joseph
Keep this in mine the next time you said that. England invaded Ireland some 900 year ago and move Englishmen to Ireland to take over the country.

Talking about what happened 900 years ago doesn't get anyone very far. Then again nor does talking abot surrendering to the IRA.

Although one of the main reason the provos stoppes the bombings was because they were losing big style.

[C0ckney]

Originally posted by Joseph
Keep this in mine the next time you said that. America invaded California some 150 year ago and move Americans to California to take over the country.

'people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones'

[molly bloom]

Possibly a southern African economic union. A shared history of struggle against white minority rule unites S.A. and Zimbabwe and Namibia, there are ethnic ties, Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia, Lesotho and Swaziland are all also in the Commonwealth, there are certainly good reasons why they should unite.

An economic union of the Maghreb (as opposed to membership of the Arab League).

Indonesia is certainly a good case for separatism, with ethnic tensions in Borneo, and occupied West Papua, and in Aceh.

A united Korea would be a very good idea- perhaps when the North Korean dictator/god for life pops his clogs....

I doubt the United Kingdom will disunite any time soon. Why would Eire want to be saddled with the economic and political burden of a disaffected Loyalist Protestant minority? The E.U. security blanket is a better home.

Sudan should definitely split- a Muslim Arab north has no business ruling a Christian/Animist black African south, with an iron fist in a mailed glove and sharia law.

[Bosh]

molly bloom: Mozambique isn't Commonwealth and never war.

[/nit picking]

And a reuinited Korea would be hell for the South's economy, would be vastly harder to make work than it was for Germany.

[East Street Trader]

I agree that the EU is gradually changing european allegiances.

It seems totally daft for people in N. Ireland to feel strongly enough about which "nation" they belong to to kill each other when both the UK and Ireland are members of the EU. No doubt which council fixes your local taxes and runs your local garbage disposal has some significance - but it is difficult to get up a really impressive head of steam on such things.

And I agree this change may well make it easier for a Basque or a Scot or a Breton to reconcile allegiance to their particular locality with allegiance to their country and allegiance to the greater union which the EU is forging.

Which seems to me very desirable. We need to move on from the concept of the nation state. If the world were a more threatening place than it has become we might still need all the cohesion which the nation state brings.

But it is not.

In fact the biggest threat around is yet another huge war sparked off by the kind of power games which nation states indulge in.

It occurs to me that both the UK and the USA represent staging posts along this development. When England/Wales and Scotland agreed to unite it was done on the basis that each would maintain their own distinctive system of law. And that has continued through to the present day. When the USA was created a federal model was adopted so that each state could preserve aspects of its own history and culture.

The USSR, by contrast, does not seem to have managed any internal diversity rather seeking a homogenous set of arrangements, to be applied everywhere.

I suspect it is going to take a long time for the last vestiges of the nation state to pass. But it is good that some things are happening which begin its demise.

[Winston]

Boshko,

Despite being a former Portuguese colony, Mozambique is in fact a member of the Commonwealth of Nations today. They applied and were accepted some time in the mid 1990's if memory serves me right.

[Bosh]

Despite being a former Portuguese colony, Mozambique is in fact a member of the Commonwealth of Nations today.

Ah, shouldn't have opened my big stupid mouth then. Thanks for the info.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by Joseph
No. When the Dutch found the island (1600s), no and I mean no Chinese lived there. The island people were polynesian. The polynesian there at the time told the Dutch they did not know how long they had lived on the Island but all said their Grandfather had live there and their Grandfather had live there. They told the Dutch that from time to time Chinese pirates would come and hid from the Chinese Navy. After the Dutch settle there, they needed people to work for them with no pay (slaves). So the Dutch when to south central China and pick up whoever they could buy and took them to Taiwan. And that is how the Chinese came to Taiwan. Some early Chinese Goverments knew about Taiwan, but did not try to settle it.

Here is a another one I just found out about. Iwo Jima and it's other island was found by the American Navy and not by the Japanese. We told them about the Island and later they came and claim them for Japan, but our Navy had Naval Station on them for some time.

All right. But I suppose then that in 'history', polynesian=native waiting to be colonized. And since Taiwan speaks Chinese, and since it is the remnants of Chiang Kai Shek, I guess China's claims are not that unjustified.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by C0ckney
it saddens me that englishmen can talk seriously about abandoning northern ireland to the catholics

NO SURRENDER TO THE IRA!

Glad to see religious war isn't just limited to the Middle East.

Why don't we just call them the IRA instead of the catholics, ok? Lets try not to make this off to be some crusade.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by C0ckney


'people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones'

But when the US took over California, Mexican land titles were respected, and Mexican landowners assimilated into the California upper class. Kinda like what happened in Ireland in say, 1100. Very UNLIKE what happened in Ireland in 1650 or thereabouts. Not to prejudice the current situation in the North, but what happened in Ireland in the 1600s, though arguably driven by the grand strategic situation vis a vis france and Spain, was QUITE nasty.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


All right. But I suppose then that in 'history', polynesian=native waiting to be colonized. And since Taiwan speaks Chinese, and since it is the remnants of Chiang Kai Shek, I guess China's claims are not that unjustified.

Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 (?) to 1945, and there was significant cultural influence. In 1945 the Chiang govt not only sought to eliminate any Japanese cultural influence, but also subordinated the local dialect of Chinese (which, like most southern Chinese "dialects" IIUC, is not intelligble to Mandarin speakers) to Mandarin, the language of the KMT exiles. IIUC in contemporary Taiwan the local dialect is making a comeback and Mandarin is in decline.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by molly bloom
Possibly a southern African economic union. A shared history of struggle against white minority rule unites S.A. and Zimbabwe and Namibia, there are ethnic ties, Mozambique, Botswana, Zambia, Lesotho and Swaziland are all also in the Commonwealth, there are certainly good reasons why they should unite.

.

South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique, Botswana, Zimbabwe.

lets think political - economic systems. Which one doesnt belong?