I don't really understand about Dean.

[chequita guevara]

I'm not a regular gambler so yer gonna have to explain that to me.

[Boris Godunov]

He's saying Bush will win by at least 5 percentage points of the popular vote, and he's betting $20.

[Guynemer]

No, what it means is I'll take Bush plus an additional 5 points. So, for instance, if Dean wins 52/48, I win (48+5>52).

[chequita guevara]

Okay, I'll take that bet.

That's $80 so far.

[JohnT]

So, for Che to win the bet Bush has to lose by 5.1%+ of the popular vote?

I can imagine him losing, but not by that much. I can also imagine Bush kicking Dean's ass by 5-10% in the popular vote. However I can't imagine the reverse unless there's a radical change in the current poli-eco environment.

[Guynemer]

I know. Easiest $20 I've made all year.
...only $20 I've made all year...

[Boris Godunov]

I'm feeling bad that I'll be taking che's $50. But then again, I prefer to think of it as a redistribution of the wealth in my favor.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by JohnT
I can imagine him losing, but not by that much. I can also imagine Bush kicking Dean's ass by 5-10% in the popular vote. However I can't imagine the reverse unless there's a radical change in the current poli-eco environment.

Dean is much closer to Bush than Gore was at this time four years ago. Gore came behind from a 17-point defict to beat Bush in the popular vote (only to have victory snatched). Dean's only behind 8 points, and Bush still has a sucky job situation to deal with, three million jobs down . . . still.

[chequita guevara]

Anyway, I'll take another bet or two up to $20, for a total of $100 across the board.

[Boris Godunov]

Don't forget to include the cost of stamps to mail all the people you'll have to pay.

[chequita guevara]

Paypal.

[JohnT]

Naw, I'm not gonna take your money. I'm not a big friend of gambling... except for the NCAA Tourney pool.

[Ben Kenobi]

Che:

I'd take your bet, but I don't bet money. What about avatars? Two weeks of wearing an image of my choice if I win, and if you win, I wear an image of your choice for two weeks. Has to also be within forum regulations.

Heck, Dean has not even survived one primary yet. Everybody's saying this is just like 1968 in terms of foreign policy, and you remember what happened in those primaries, with Bobby Kennedy and all.

[Shi Huangdi]

"Why do you say that? Both Ohio and WV were tight races in 2000. Jobs usually determine who wins, and steel is very imporant in both states."

They were reasonably close, but not very. That Jobs determine who wins is conventional wisdowm that used to be alot more true than it is now. Contemporary research shows that social issues are far more important then ever before. With recent legislative action on partial birth abortion and with gay right issues being all over the news, expect this factor increase. Research has also shown that OH and WV rank up with the South in terms of more traditional values. Foreign policy being a major issue will crowd out economics even more.


"
IIRC, those polls were taken in September. That doesn't tell you anything."

it tells you what people thought at the time, and the numbers were similar for all democratic candidates.

"More recent national polls (like the CNN one a little while ago) show the gap to be much smaller."

Do you have a link showing to a more recent poll in Ohio?

"The midwest isn't that socially conservative. Not anything like that South, anyways. That's why Dems are perfectly competitive there, even have advanges in places like Iowa. And if farm subsidies go, so will their support for Shrub"

The Dems are competitive in the upper midewest, comprising much of the so called "rust belt", and in fact except for Indiana and Ohio they mostly won there. In the Great Plains they are not very competetive at all, though.

"Links to polls?"

www.dcpoliticalreport.com

"Dean is so far ahead fiscally that I think he's virtually bagged it."

I can't say I agree with you. There is alot of concern in the Democratic Party about Dean's viability and electability, and I suspect those supporting other candidates will coalesece around another candidate.

"Dean is much closer to Bush than Gore was at this time four years ago. Gore came behind from a 17-point defict to beat Bush in the popular vote (only to have victory snatched). Dean's only behind 8 points, and Bush still has a sucky job situation to deal with, three million jobs down . . . still."

You're making a mistake that early polls always benefit The Democrats. Not so. In 2000, the Democrats were the incumbent party and they narrowed the lead. Leading up to the 1996 and and 1984, Clinton and Reagan were both polling poorly yet won re-election handily. In 1998 Dukakis had a large lead over Bush I initally but came back to win in the end. Bush II is polling stronger then either Clinton or Reagan did coming into their re-election campaigns.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Che:

I'd take your bet, but I don't bet money. What about avatars? Two weeks of wearing an image of my choice if I win, and if you win, I wear an image of your choice for two weeks. Has to also be within forum regulations.

I can't imagine you with anyone but Alec Guiness.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
I can't say I agree with you. There is alot of concern in the Democratic Party about Dean's viability and electability, and I suspect those supporting other candidates will coalesece around another candidate.

Not among the rank and file there isn't, as I just pointed out a little while ago. Democrats by and large say they're comfortable with Dean as the nominee to go up against Bush.

Considering Dean's leading for the nomination, saying he's not as electable as other candidates is, IMO, patently absurd.

Ben--are you anticipating Dean being assassinated? Seems rather dire. Had Kennedy not been killed in 1968, he likely would have won the primaries and won the general election against Nixon. Nixon barely eked out a win. And the Democrats we're the incumbent party anyway.

[chequita guevara]

Most of the hand-wringing about Dean seems to come from Washington Dems, who are threatened by Dean's insurgency. He's threatening to shake up the DP and much f his early fire was directed at them.

[JohnT]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


I can't imagine you with anyone but Alec Guiness.

Nice dodge.

[Wraith]

--"And it won't begin to be rejuvinated until they decide to re-energize their base and stop being Conservative-Lite,"

On the other hand, it might just give another party a big chance to jump in and steal their thunder... ^_^

Wraith
The windmills are winning.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

who cares if its dean, clark, or bush? itll be the same old **** rahashed. all three are likely to compromise, and neither party stands for anything except for electability and sucking up to special interests . i have to say tho, that out of all three, i'd give clark the best chance against bush.

[Ned]

Che, I'll take that bet for $100k. You on? Dean has to win by at least 40 electoral votes to "crush" Bush.

[St Leo]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
I can't imagine you with anyone but Alec Guiness.

Leia in a golden bikini mayhaps?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
who cares if its dean, clark, or bush? itll be the same old **** rahashed. all three are likely to compromise, and neither party stands for anything except for electability and sucking up to special interests . i have to say tho, that out of all three, i'd give clark the best chance against bush.

You mean you don't give Bush a good chance against Bush? Go figure.