The Cold War: Clash of Economies

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 13:35

How many of you think that the Cold War would have been much much worse had the USSR been a free market capitalist Society on par with the USA???

MikeH · January 8, 2004, 13:37

Then there would have been no need for the war 'cause they weren't commies. So clearly it'd have been a lot better.

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 14:17

but why, surley, because they have the same interests economicly, there would be more chance of them clashing over seas, ie. who gets the South American market etc

GePap · January 8, 2004, 15:04

Well, if the USSR had been a capitalist state, there would have been no WW2, or it would have been very different, so no idea if Russia would have been in a #2 position at that time anyway.

DinoDoc · January 8, 2004, 15:10

Quote:

Originally posted by GePap
Well, if the USSR had been a capitalist state, there would have been no WW2,

Why?

Ramo · January 8, 2004, 15:15

Presumably because it was started by Hitler's drive to crush the Bolsheviks. But I'm not convinced there wouldn't be any WWII.

Shogun Gunner · January 8, 2004, 16:06

Hitler wanted resources. There would have been a WW2, or at least a war with Russia for resources, or ethnic purity reasons if you eliminate hatred of communism as a reason.

There was serious concern within the German High Command on the issue of attacking Russia in '41. Germany imported quite a bit of raw materials and food from Russia and the Germans would be attacking their main source of foreign supply. The promise of blitzkreig was enticing and a compelling argument for attacking Soviet Union and siezing these resources outright.

Post WW2:
If the Soviet Union was a free market society, the Cold War would have been far more dangerous and competitive. The whole Russian military doctrine was based on a quick win for several reasons - one being their fragile logistics ability. Their economy would not have survived prolonged hostilities. They could barely manage the logistics of 'invading" Czechoslovkia in '68.

Ned · January 8, 2004, 16:15

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
How many of you think that the Cold War would have been much much worse had the USSR been a free market capitalist Society on par with the USA???

Don't have to speculate on this one. All we have to do is look at China. As China moves to become more free market, its relations to its neighbors and the rest of the world improve dramatically as good relations are necessary for trade.

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 16:23

Without a communist threat, fascism would never have come to power. Thus, no WWII.

Ned · January 8, 2004, 16:31

Quote:

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Without a communist threat, fascism would never have come to power. Thus, no WWII.

Maybe. However, wasn't Hitler more of a reaction to the bad peace treaty than a reaction to communism?

SlowwHand · January 8, 2004, 16:38

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
How many of you think that the Cold War would have been much much worse had the USSR been a free market capitalist Society on par with the USA???

You need to remember that the USSR really had no economy, per se.
They had an abundance of lines, waiting to get items before the supply ran out, toilet paper for instance.

And Hitler was a reaction to madness, Ned.

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 16:47

i am talking hypotheticaly, and deliberatly ignoring WW2. What i want to know is, what would have happened IF they had been capitalist in 45.

As to modern china, it is already clear that US buissness' are getting angry as they are finding it hard to compete with cheap chinese exports, and there are lots of arguments about economic things bewteeen US and china that i don't really understand.

~Could this sort of thing, and much worse, have taken place withe a free market USSR? I think so, because, as i said earlier, their interests would be more liley to collide.

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 16:53

Quote:

Originally posted by Ned

Maybe. However, wasn't Hitler more of a reaction to the bad peace treaty than a reaction to communism?

Without the support of big business, his movement would either have never taken off or it would have been crushed by the government. The only reason the big capitalists let Hitler take over is that they were more scared of Marx than him.

Shogun Gunner · January 8, 2004, 16:53

When you calculate all of Russia/Soviet Union's natural resources, people and geographical advantages what you have is a fearsome competitor.

However, as with everything in life, people make the difference more than anything else. One of the reasons Germany whooped up so badly on Russia in WW2, was the strength of the NCO and lower ranking soldiers to make decisions and take intiative on the battlefield. The Russians had a highly controlled, structured command chain. This strongly limited their warfighting abilities.

So, a different political and economic enviornment would have greatly reduced many of the causes to Russian inefficiency and low production. So, yes there would be a tough competitor in a free-market Russia.

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 16:55

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
i am talking hypotheticaly, and deliberatly ignoring WW2. What i want to know is, what would have happened IF they had been capitalist in 45.

There would have been no Cold War if, some how, miraculously, the USSR became capitalist over night in 1945. The Cold War was the US attempt to contain the Communist threat. Instead Russia would have been just another dirt poor neo-colony ala China and India.

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 16:56

how do you reckon it would have changed the cold war, Shogun? Would there have been more chance of a shootin' war?

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 16:58

Quote:

Originally posted by chegitz guevara

There would have been no Cold War if, some how, miraculously, the USSR became capitalist over night in 1945. The Cold War was the US attempt to contain the Communist threat. Instead Russia would have been just another dirt poor neo-colony ala China and India.

your missing my point. What iu am trying find out is how different a cold war between a capiotalist USSR and USA have been, ignoring the fact that it was never going to happen. I don't give a **** about how likley it was to happen, I am going on the pretence that both were capitalist and running at a similar level of their potential.

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 16:59

Since you seem more interested in fantasy answers than real ones, Rasputrin would have awoken from the dead an started a magical cold war between him and the U.S. lead by the undead Hudini.

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 17:06

Would Hitler still have been a danger to the world if he had ruled Upper Volta?

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 17:11

Che, why do i get the feeling that you are a bit of a kill joy

Shogun Gunner · January 8, 2004, 17:34

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
how do you reckon it would have changed the cold war, Shogun? Would there have been more chance of a shootin' war?

I would agree with Ned, that the likelyhood of a shooting war would be greatly reduced. However, trade wars would be much more likely and very intense.

Today, there are lot of compliants of America being an only superpower. If the Soviet Union was free market, you would have America's biggest nightmare (even more than China). A very large country that could build an economy to rival or surpass America's...and an alternative to "the only superpower".

Russia would have an advantage over China in terms of rivaling America due to having a foot both in the West and in Asia.

Hard to specualte about specifics, but its an interesting question to ponder. What would you postulate, Andy-Man?

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 17:46

I would say that the rivalry would be incredibly tense, and i disagree with ned, because i htink the chances of ar would be increased, because now they really do have something to fight over. it owuld be over rice paddies in the 3rd world, but the european and south american econmies.

There would also be the very interesting issue of Soviet goods into american and vice versa.

War may not be liley, but i think sooner or later there probably would be one, as in this scenario there is no hope of the Soviet union 'collapsing'.

Things like contyaiment would also g out the window.

Shogun Gunner · January 8, 2004, 17:51

It is easy to see how "trading blocks" would develop. Politics would be hand in hand with economics. There are many examples in our planet's history of wars based purely in economic rivalry. Perhaps you are right.

I don't think the lack of a good economy was the reason a real shooting war didn't happen in the real Soviet Union. I would think the Russian cost/benefit analysis of conflict was never in the favor -- especially later when our supposed "missile gap" was corrected.

The Andy-Man · January 8, 2004, 17:55

In the real cold war, i don't think either side really ever wanted to fight. Neithe could have won, it would have been expensive and probably very unpopular.

The way i see it, both had alot to gain from being 'rivals' but nothing from a full blown war. Two capatalist societies are in a much worse position though, because they want the same (or similar) things

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 18:03

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
Che, why do i get the feeling that you are a bit of a kill joy

You phrased your question poorly. I tried to asnwer the question you asked, not the question you appear to have wanted.

Spiffor · January 8, 2004, 18:08

Quote:

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Would Hitler still have been a danger to the world if he had ruled Upper Volta?

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 18:11

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
War may not be liley, but i think sooner or later there probably would be one, as in this scenario there is no hope of the Soviet union 'collapsing'.

Talk of a capitalist USSR is as inane as a democratic Nazi Germany. It would be Russia. And Russia would still be in danger of collapsing, as it is today, and will be for quite some time.

Can we take modern Russia as a model for your thought experiment?

If so, Russia would be far more ruthless in this Cold War. Hwen pro-U.S. terrorists strike in Russia, Russia would reply in kind, as well as, as historically happened, clamp down internally.

Again, if history is any guide, war would be more likely, since the vast majority of all wars and armed conflicts betwen nations in the 20th Century were initiated by capitalist countries. The U.S. itself engaged in seven times the number of foreign military actions that the USSR did. So we could assume, that as a capitalist country, Russia would be more aggressive. War would probably break out in 1947 over Berlin.

notyoueither · January 8, 2004, 18:11

Perhaps the proper question would be how bad would a Cold War-like conflict between 2 industrialised, free market based, world powers be?

Very bad if you could actually get it going. The world economy would go into a tail spin as the other industrialised, capitalist nations were forced to choose sides and trade suffered massive disruptions.

The only thing that prevented the Cold War from becoming hot is that none of the leaders of either side were insane enough to initiate the end of human life on Earth.

chequita guevara · January 8, 2004, 18:13

Quote:

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
In the real cold war, i don't think either side really ever wanted to fight. Neithe could have won, it would have been expensive and probably very unpopular.

There were many in our government that really wanted a fight, probably in the Soviet government as well. Fortunately for the world, cooler heads prevailed.

Ned · January 8, 2004, 20:59

Quote:

Originally posted by chegitz guevara

Without the support of big business, his movement would either have never taken off or it would have been crushed by the government. The only reason the big capitalists let Hitler take over is that they were more scared of Marx than him.

For once, and perhaps for the last time, Che, I will agree with you on this point.