Iranian Conservatives Disquallify Reformist Candidates & Reformists Boycott Gov't

[Ramo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/12/in...st/12IRAN.html

A new power struggle engulfed Iran's government on Sunday when a hard-line Islamic religious authority disqualified half the 8,200 candidates in parliamentary elections next month, provoking outrage among reformers who accused their conservative rivals of trying to steal the vote.

Rejected candidates included a brother of the reform-minded president, Mohammad Khatami. More than 80 current members of the 290-seat Parliament were rejected, including two prominent feminists, two deputy speakers and six leaders of important parliamentary commissions. Many had been outspoken critics of Iran's strict Islamic religious political system and its treatment of dissenters and diverse views.

The religious authority, the 12-member Guardian Council, had disqualified some candidates in previous elections and had blocked many reform bills passed by Parliament in recent years. But the number of disqualifications for the Feb. 20 elections represented the most drastic action the council has taken against reformers in the country's parliamentary history.

Nearly 60 [BBC says 70] reformist members of Parliament held a sit-in at Parliament on Sunday to protest the action. Ali Shakourirad, a lawmaker on the disqualified list, told reporters that the group intended to continue the sit-in until the disqualifications were reversed. If not, he said, "we will take further steps in our protest."

BBC adds:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3387997.stm

The reformist-dominated interior ministry says the decision is illegal.

[...]

The provincial governors, who are responsible for administering the elections in their areas, have said they will resign in a week if what they call the conditions for a free and fair election are not met.

The governors are appointed by the interior ministry which says it will not take account of the disqualifications.

Is this the beginning of a revolution?

[monkspider]

Well, this is the most noteworthy event of the new year.

[Ramo]

Yep. Exciting times we live in, n'est pas?

[monkspider]

Indeed. Poor Persia has been an eventful year so far. The deadliest earthquake in a long time, and now a possible revolution!

[Boris Godunov]

revolution! I hope the people finally rid themselves of their shitty government.

Same goes for Iran!

[PLATO]

Hmmm...

Many implications and possible outcomes. To early to tell if this is good or ill.

[DinoDoc]

Where is this Persia ms keeps talking of?

[Ramo]

In between Sumeria and Harappa of course.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Ramo
In between Sumeria and the Harappa of course.

even I knew that

[DinoDoc]

You're one up on me.

[Ramo]

Anyways, will the population follow suit? The Reformist politicians didn't really take a really strong stand by boycotting gov't when the student demonstrations were being repressed. So is the public still willing put its neck on the line for the politicians? I mean, voter turnout last election was rather low.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Is this the beginning of a revolution?

Hopefully, but unlikely.

[monkspider]

I always thought that the fundies weren't too popular with the masses, so this could be their desperate, last-gasp attempt to hold back the tide.

[Shi Huangdi]

AFAIK the army is still conservative. Even if the people do rise up, the fundamentalists should retain power. They believe what they are doing is mandated by God and won't back down.

[OzzyKP]

Revolution!

[BeBro]

Originally posted by monkspider
I always thought that the fundies weren't too popular with the masses, so this could be their desperate, last-gasp attempt to hold back the tide.

Hm, would be cool, but from the protests last year I got the impression that it´s still pretty split - pro-democracy on the one side, pro-islamic-fundies on the other.

Would be also interesting to know if there are huge differences between rural and urban people in this aspect.

[Ramo]

Hm, would be cool, but from the protests last year I got the impression that it´s still pretty split - pro-democracy on the one side, pro-islamic-fundies on the other.

The public is overwhelmingly supportive of a more democratic government. That's why their representative legislature is consistently controlled by the Reformists by large majorities - although frustration at undemocratic institutions in preventing reform among the public as well as frustration at the Reformists in not backing the students have recently reduced their power in parliament.

AFAIK the army is still conservative.

The main problem are the Revolutionary Guards. It's conceivable that a large portion of the army might dissolve. Probably not a majority, but that might be enough. After all, popular revolutions have succeeded without the army completely dissolving. It'll probably be bloody, but that doesn't mean it'll fail.

[Seeker]

Your post seems to imply that the 'Persian' interior ministry (read: military police)was pro-reform. That seems unlikely, is it true?

[Ramo]

The BBC is saying it. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't write something blatantly wrong in a major article.

And actually, the military courts were involved in prosecuting policemen who were attacking students.

[Shi Huangdi]

Hmmm, that could be interesting, the military police could be used to arrest the government.

"The main problem are the Revolutionary Guards. It's conceivable that a large portion of the army might dissolve. Probably not a majority, but that might be enough. After all, popular revolutions have succeeded without the army completely dissolving. It'll probably be bloody, but that doesn't mean it'll fail."

It'd be really, really, tough. I can fully see a middle eastern Tianamen Square repeating itself here.

[yaroslav]

I wish this could be the beginning of a revolution, and I know how the population (specially the young people, whose number is very high in Iran) feels about the fundies, but I doubt it

[Ramo]

Update:

Ayatollah Khamenei said that if there were a large number of questionable disqualifications, he would use his constitutional powers to try to redress the situation.

"At this stage we have legal channels and everyone should act based on law," he said in comments carried by state radio.

"If it gets to the point that it becomes sensitive and requires a decision... there is no doubt that I will step in and act in accordance with my judgment and duty, as has been the case in the past."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3389285.stm

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Revolution!

Have I mentioned recently how much I like you.

[Ramo]

It's interesting that Sistani resumed his demand for democratic elections in Iraq yesterday (which he pretty much called off a month ago after he failed to pressure us or the IGC into doing so). Perhaps he was inspired by the actions of Iranian reformists?

I can almost like the guy.

[GePap]

This is a huge test for Khatami..if he fails in overturning this, faith in him as the leader of the reformists will wane greatly. The question is how unpopular Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants to be: he does have the power to overturn the decision, but of course, he put the guys in the council in power, and he got to the top through political plays and not clerical seniority.

The people appear apathetic right now.

[Ramo]

Looks like Khatami has taken the plunge:

Vice-President Mohammad Sattarifar has warned that the government may resign if there is no resolution, reports say.

The BBC's Jim Muir says this did not amount to a specific threat, but was a clear sign of possible consequences.

Hardliners, however, are urging the unelected body which vets candidates to uphold its ban on more than 2,000 supporters of reform from standing.

The conservative Council of Guardians is now considering appeals against its own vetoes on the would-be candidates.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3391969.stm