Iowa

POTUS · January 19, 2004, 18:10

What do you think is going to happen tonight?

Nubclear · January 19, 2004, 18:13

Kucinich!

Monk · January 19, 2004, 18:18

Kerry's gonna win.

Winston · January 19, 2004, 18:19

Kerry
Gephardt
Dean
Edwards

Monk · January 19, 2004, 18:27

McGovern seems to have endorsed Wesley Clark. Does this turn the tide?

Whoha · January 19, 2004, 19:02

I think it will be Gephardt.

JohnT · January 19, 2004, 19:11

I'm voting for Edwards. At least as far as this poll is concerned.

Ben Kenobi · January 19, 2004, 19:13

Seems Kucinich will throw his votes over to Edwards.

All I can say is that I'm glad I'm not a Democrat.

Verto · January 19, 2004, 19:19

Kerry is leading at the moment, but that will probably change.

POTUS · January 19, 2004, 19:22

Gephardt
Kerry
Edwards
Dean

titansfan216 · January 19, 2004, 19:28

Edwards
Kerry
Dean
Gephardt

Whoha · January 19, 2004, 20:27

damn this poll is close to turning into the real vote tallies.

Ned · January 19, 2004, 20:50

I have a gut feeling that it will be Edwards.

Edan · January 19, 2004, 20:52

From this article, it sounds like Dean and Edwards might be at a slight disadvantage because of how Iowa runs their messed up primaries...

Quote:

If the "winner" anointed by the media is determined by the delegate count rather than the raw count, who's likely to get screwed? Do the math. Edwards is hovering just above 15 percent in most statewide surveys. That means that in a lot of precincts, his supporters are likely to fall just below the viability threshold and be disbanded, earning zero delegates. Dean could be shortchanged by the turnout-based allotment of delegates to each precinct. If, as advertised, Dean brings in people who had previously given up on voting, the low turnout caused by their absence from the last election in that precinct will diminish the number of delegates they can earn in this election, no matter how many of them show up.

Shi Huangdi · January 19, 2004, 21:00

I suspected Gephardt at first, but he seems to split in the polls. Dean seems to have the advantage, being only 3 points down with a stronger organization.

Winston · January 19, 2004, 21:07

From over here, it looks as if Iowa Democratic Caucus is just a euphemism for the much more accurate Iowa Democratic Circus.

But of all the trained seals, I still view John Kerry as being most likely to get the biggest applause of the night.

PLATO · January 19, 2004, 21:11

Quote:

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
I suspected Gephardt at first, but he seems to split in the polls. Dean seems to have the advantage, being only 3 points down with a stronger organization.

?? Gephardt has the strongest organization by far. The Union organization is at his disposal plus he has been campaigning in the state for 15 years.

PLATO · January 19, 2004, 21:19

The news is reporting a huge turnout. This appears to be working to the detrement of those with the big organizations

Shi Huangdi · January 19, 2004, 21:27

"?? Gephardt has the strongest organization by far. The Union organization is at his disposal plus he has been campaigning in the state for 15 years."

Yes, but Dean's is stronger then Kerry's

Foxnes just released the entrance polls:

Kerry 29%
Dean 22%
Edwards 22%
Gerphardt 16%

Keep in mind this could well change, as at caucuses people actually discuss the candidates and can change, and 40-50% of people have said their minds are not maid up. Still, Kerry has a pretty substantive lead and it will be hard to knock him off.

POTUS · January 19, 2004, 21:29

No, most of the turn-out is union members driving people who normally don't attend to the cacuas.

SlowwHand · January 19, 2004, 21:31

Poll Finds Kerry Leads Tight Iowa Race
20 minutes ago

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democratic presidential candidates vied for victory Monday across the chilly precincts of Iowa, the first step in the battle to face President Bush (news - web sites) this fall. John Kerry (news - web sites) was leading in preliminary results of an Associated Press survey of Iowa Democrats taken as they entered the caucus sites.

The survey showed John Edwards (news - web sites) and Howard Dean (news - web sites) battling for second, and **** Gephardt (news - web sites), the winner of the 1988 caucuses, trailing.

Shi Huangdi · January 19, 2004, 21:35

Internal polls are showing Edwards begin to pull ahead of Dean. If Dean finishes 3rd place here, it would be devestating for his campaign.

Shi Huangdi · January 19, 2004, 21:41

More entrance poll numbers are:

Kerry 31%
Edwards 24%
Dean 21%
Gephardt 15%

Things are looking really bad for Dean and Gephardt.

Shi Huangdi · January 19, 2004, 21:48

With 20% precincts in:

Kerry 34%
Edwards 31%
Dean 18%

PLATO · January 19, 2004, 21:50

IMHO Edwards has the best chance against Bush.

POTUS · January 19, 2004, 22:01

He has no experience.

DanS · January 19, 2004, 22:04

Very interesting results. Edwards is clearly a huge winner here. Kerry will get a big boost going into New Hampshire. The presumptive front-runners got hammered.

It just goes to show that politics is very unpredictable and that's why we all go out to vote.

POTUS · January 19, 2004, 22:06

It is only beginning, we won't know the final results until much later.

SlowwHand · January 19, 2004, 22:08

Gephardt didn't visit Iowa.
Who else blew off all of Iowa, besides MrYouknowwho?

DanS · January 19, 2004, 22:10

44% of the precincts have reported. That and the entry polls are a pretty good indication.

Gephardt was given no respect, apparently. What happened to his labor legions?