Iowa

[POTUS]

You are thinking of Clark and Lieberman.

[Shi Huangdi]

Originally posted by POTUS
It is only beginning, we won't know the final results until much later.

Over half of the precincts are in, it looks a little too late for Gephardt and Dean. Kerry has an advantage, we'll have to see if he or Edwards pulls it out.

Kerry 37%
Edwards 33%
Dean 18%
Gephardt 11%

[Ben Kenobi]

From the entrance polls:

Why Edwards does well in Iowa.

Total / Dean / Edwards / Gephardt / Kerry / Kucinich


Cares about people like me 22 15 41 17 22
Takes strong stands on the issues 29 31 23 7 26 10
Has the right experience 15 5 2 18 71
Can beat George W. Bush 27 21 30 6 37


41% for of the people feel Edwards cares about them, higher than Kerry, while 71% of the group looking for experience, sees Kerry with the right experience.

Dean leads with 31% saying that he takes strong stands on the issues, but trails both Kerry and Edwards when people consider whether he can beat Dubya.

That 41% is huge for Edwards, the only category he polls ahead of Kerry.

[DanS]

Gephardt's gotta remove himself from this race, if he can only get 4th in a neighboring state, where there are no other real Midwestern candidates. That's a pretty piss-poor showing.

[Ben Kenobi]

Kerry 37%
Edwards 33%
Dean 18%
Gephardt 11%

Dean's gotta get 60% of the remaining ballots, and has to hope the rest continue to split between Kerry and Edwards and Gephardt for him to have a chance.

[Winston]

Originally posted by DanS
Gephardt's gotta remove himself from this race, if he can only get 4th in a neighboring state, where there are no other real Midwestern candidates.

Plus he won the Iowa caucus in 2000. That's quite a fall to take.

[Ben Kenobi]

And why Dean did poorly. It's the economy, stupid.

Total / Dean / Edwards / Gephardt / Kerry

Economy/Jobs 29 16 34 12 33

Dean gets 16% of the 29% citing the economy as their primary concern. Edwards and Kerry are nose to nose.

[Shi Huangdi]

And we have a projected winner, Kerry will get the most delegates tonight.

[DanS]

Winston: ITYM, Gephardt won in '88, rather. But the point is still valid.

[GePap]

If these results hold, the big losers are:

1.Gephardt- basically out of the race
2. Dean- his "frontrunner" status is questioned, makes New hampshire a must.
3. Lieberman- not running here anyway, but he has essentially become the anti-Dean candidate. If Dean is not the pressumed front runner, what the hell does he do?

Big Winners:
1. Edwards-biggest single jump up- never seen as a front runner, now has a chance
2. Kerry- makes him competative again in New Hampshire, shows his war experience resonates.

Mixed:
Clark- A huge dent in Dean is good for him, but a big surge in Kerry might sap more people from him than Dean.
Kucinich and Sharpton- were not going to do well anyway, so who cares.

[Edan]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
From the entrance polls:

Why Edwards does well in Iowa.

Total / Dean / Edwards / Gephardt / Kerry / Kucinich


Cares about people like me 22 15 41 17 22
Takes strong stands on the issues 29 31 23 7 26 10
Has the right experience 15 5 2 18 71
Can beat George W. Bush 27 21 30 6 37

37% feel Kucinich could beat Bush? 71% feel he has the right experience?

That's got to be a typo, no? Or am I just reading it wrong?

So, assuming Gephardt drops out, who does he endorse?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Edan
So, assuming Gephardt drops out, who does he endorse?

A fellow legislator most likely, either Lieberman or Kerry I would say: though he could always jump in for Clark.

[Ben Kenobi]

Edan:

I suck at graphs.

First number in each row is the total.

Second number in each row is Dean, etc.

Kucinich is 6th, but I only included one section where he polled in double digits. All the others, he had no effect on the overall outcome.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3762614/

Is the link to the exit polls, so you don't have to look at the poor attempt at a graph.

[Whoha]

hes not likely to endorse Clark considering his stance on trade.

[Shi Huangdi]

Gephardt has officialy confirmed he will drop out.

[mrmitchell]

Gephardt has officialy confirmed he will drop out.

Is he endorsing Sharpton?

[MrFun]

Just turned on CNN now and found out what many of you already knew from earlier -- Kerry won!!

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha
hes not likely to endorse Clark considering his stance on trade.

No one shares his stance on trade.

[Ben Kenobi]

Is he endorsing Sharpton?

[Joseph]

Originally posted by GePap
If these results hold, the big losers are:

1.Gephardt- basically out of the race
2. Dean- his "frontrunner" status is questioned, makes New hampshire a must.
3. Lieberman- not running here anyway, but he has essentially become the anti-Dean candidate. If Dean is not the pressumed front runner, what the hell does he do?

Big Winners:
1. Edwards-biggest single jump up- never seen as a front runner, now has a chance
2. Kerry- makes him competative again in New Hampshire, shows his war experience resonates.

Mixed:
Clark- A huge dent in Dean is good for him, but a big surge in Kerry might sap more people from him than Dean.
Kucinich and Sharpton- were not going to do well anyway, so who cares.

Kucinich should drop after NH.

Sharpton will wait until the NY, NJ, Phily and Penn, Balt. and Maryland, South and North Carolina just to see how many delegate he will have so he can be a speaker at their convention. (His 15 min of flame).

[GePap]

While the extremely and endless negative press certainly weakened Dean significantly, as well as his overemphasis on his anti-war opposition (he would do much better to speak of his record as governor), I am at a loss to see why gephardt tanked so drastically. Dean was polling at 22 % and went down to 18%- that a loss of 4. Gephard was polling at 19% and wen to 11, a loss of 8. It seems the unions stayed home, and that his signle minded attacks v. Dean ignored the other challenges.

Well, now onto a real primary as opposed to this freaky circus, New Hampshire.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

It's easy to predict polls when it's already happened

Official CNN tally:

(Candidate
Vote% Delegates)

Kerry
38% 7
Edwards
32% 6
Dean
18% 3
Gephardt
11% 0
Kucinich
1% 0
Clark
0% 0
Uncommitted
0% 0
Lieberman
0% 0
Moseley Braun
0% 0
Sharpton
0% 0

This is huge. It was supposed to be a two-way race between Dean and Gephardt.

[Whoha]

actually Gepap, some of the others have waffled back and forth about looking at the trade agreements again, Clark has declared himself in the free trade corner.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by GePap
If these results hold, the big losers are:

1.Gephardt- basically out of the race
2. Dean- his "frontrunner" status is questioned, makes New hampshire a must.
3. Lieberman- not running here anyway, but he has essentially become the anti-Dean candidate. If Dean is not the pressumed front runner, what the hell does he do?

Big Winners:
1. Edwards-biggest single jump up- never seen as a front runner, now has a chance
2. Kerry- makes him competative again in New Hampshire, shows his war experience resonates.

Mixed:
Clark- A huge dent in Dean is good for him, but a big surge in Kerry might sap more people from him than Dean.
Kucinich and Sharpton- were not going to do well anyway, so who cares.

Excellent analysis IMO. Kerry becoming the front runner will spell the end for Clark. (Just my little prediction)

[GePap]

The nature of the caucases hurt Dean most. Gephardt was supposed to have all this appeal, but his anti-trade platform does not seem to have gone over with the middle classes and the Unions failed to show up, it seems. The nature of the caucauses helped Edwards the most.

The thing is, no senator has won the white house in over 90 years. At the same time, no president who lost the popular vote and won was ever re-elected. If a senatro ends up being the dem candidate, I wonder which trend will hold?

[mrmitchell]

**** Gephart sucked.

(Yes, I did indeed only post that so I could show a legitimate example to have '****' and 'suck' within 2 words of each other )

[Jaguar]

Kerry's got really good chances in New Hampshire now. Edwards is close to having a lock on South Carolina Which means that Clark is kinda screwed.

Lieberman is really screwed. He did this big song and dance about how he's electable, unlike Howard Dean, so people should vote for him. But Kerry just doubled Dean's numbers, so he's been anointed as the "electable frontrunner."

I predict a three-man race of Kerry, Edwards and Dean. Edwards will look weak in New Hampshire but win South Carolina.

[PLATO]

GePap, To what do you attribute a large turnout combined with the failure of the unions to produce? Could this be interpreted as a positive statement on the economy?

[GePap]

Originally posted by PLATO


Excellent analysis IMO. Kerry becoming the front runner will spell the end for Clark. (Just my little prediction)

Clark can always claim that a "liberal form Massachusetts" simply can not compete in the south, and that his war experience is just as god as Kerry's, so pick me. Of course, the democracts can kiss the south goodbye no matter who they run- they are only competative in Florida, and that is all that matters in the south for the Dems.

The thing is though, Edwards is still following the campaign finance system- he will not have the money to compete with Bush. Dean has money, and kerry can tap his wife.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by GePap


kerry can tap his wife.

Seriously, I think I have heard it reported that he is legally barred from using her $