The future of Russia

[Saras]

Serb rought to my attention a book which I still have to find and read, but the thesis in it is that Stalin and his brutality were necessary for Russias survival, and that (correct me if I'm wrong here, Serb) Russian history is doomed with a cycle of relative liberty replaced by tyranny and so on.

[Saras]

Personally I think this cycle theory is bull. Russians are people too, and they like to live well like other people do. So, I voted option 1. I think they also deserve a break

[laurentius]

Putin already is 'the great leader', and Russians have never stopped bullying their neighbourgs...
So my vote goes to option #2.

[FrustratedPoet]

Personally I think this cycle theory is bull.

Me too.

[Saras]

--"Russians have never stopped bullying their neighbours"

Yea, but some they can't touch anymore

[laurentius]

Maybe not touch but they can still do alot damage if they want to.

[Saras]

Not without damage to themselves, also.

[Ben Kenobi]

I vote that Russia becomes a puppet to a resurgent central asia.

Just like the good old days.

Seriously, the demographics are not good.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Saras
Serb rought to my attention a book which I still have to find and read, but the thesis in it is that Stalin and his brutality were necessary for Russias survival, and that (correct me if I'm wrong here, Serb) Russian history is doomed with a cycle of relative liberty replaced by tyranny and so on.
Personally I think this cycle theory is bull. Russians are people too, and they like to live well like other people do. So, I voted option 1. I think they also deserve a break

Not exactly Saras. Russians are people too of course, but we are different people. Russia isn't Europe and isn't Asia. It's not West or East. Russia is North. We live in the coldest country on this planet. Thanks to our climate the additional product produced by our peasants/workers was always/will be always lesser than in Europe for example. Summer is very short here, so agricaltural season is shorter than in Europe. Winter is long and cold and to surive the winter, they had to make huge surplace of lumber and food for domestic animals within short summer. So peasants had to work harder and always get much lesser than their European counterparts. The same with industry- it costs more thanks to climate (warm, light, construction, etc). So, in competition with Europenan countries Russia will always lose, thanks to additional expences and Europeans will always live better than Russians. Authors claims that after such periods when Russia is obviously loosing its competition with West, always comes period when comes external threat to existance of Russia, because Russia's neighbors see that it's week and try to grab somethin from it. Then when the bet is survival of our nation- comes period of our mobilization. During such period Russians works extremly hard almost for nothing, suffer, but complete their goal- destruction of external threat. After a victory comes period of relaxation and people start to live better, It last some time, untill the energy accumulated during mobilization is out. (I don't mean some cosmic energy, its such thing as infrastructure, education, technologies, etc)
Then Russia again lose competition and become weaker --> the weaker become Russia, the more external threat grows--> Everything repeats.
The authors points on three such big periods of mobilization (there were lesser periods of mobilization, but those three were the biggest):
1) The rule of Ivan IV, aka Ivan the Terrible.
2) The rule of Peter the Great.
3) The rule of Joseph Stalin.

I can't explain whole book, esp. using foreign language for that.
You can easily find it Saras:
http://oz.by/books/more.phtml?id=109430&partner=myminsk

It cost 60-85 rubbles. All that you lose if you will not like it is about 100 rubbles (with delivery) or so.

[Combat Ingrid]

How cute

[CerberusIV]

I found this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3410669.stm

It may not enjoy the catchiest title on the web: "The President of Russia for Citizens of School Age."

But once you click on the icon of the happy, smiling cartoon school kid you enter a Kremlin the like of which you've never seen or heard before.

The piped music sounds as if it would be more at home in a corporate video or a supermarket. Still, this is a fun, friendly, almost fluffy world of colourful cartoons and capers.

All designed to grab the attention of young Russians.

On this new website, you can visit Mr Putin's office - there you'll find a virtual Vladimir sitting with his back to you - click the cup of tea on his desk, and he'll answer some important questions.

No, not things like "Does democracy in Russia have a future?" or "When will the conflict in Chechnya finally end?"

Questions like these:

"Are you allowed to touch the President with your hands?" The answer - "no".

Or "Who's more important, the President or your mother?" Answer - "your mother".

And "What should you do if you love the president too much?" Answer - "just calm down."

Mind you, for those Russian schoolchildren who may already love their president a little "too much", this site is bound to be a hit.

There are plenty of photos of Mr Putin - playing judo, meeting the Queen of England, smiling with his favourite schoolteacher and posing with a string of animals, including his pet dog, a goat, and a horse.

The site explains what a constitution is, how important it is to serve in the army and recounts the history of the Kremlin.

But its main aim appears to be to turn Vladimir Putin into a children's superhero.

If not Superman, then at least a cyber star that most school kids would welcome as their president.

and found it worrying.

[Nubclear]

Do not insult the comrade Chairman

[Drogue]

Nearest to 1. I don't think they'll join the EU, but I think they will be economically more prosperous than they have been.

[VetLegion]

How does the author explain the relatively successful industries of Finland, Sweden, Canada, Island...?

The often mentioned theory that workers in cold climates are more productive than their counterparts nearer to the equator sounds far more convincing than the theory that production in cold climates is more expensive.

[Combat Ingrid]

Originally posted by VetLegion
How does the author explain the relatively successful industries of Finland, Sweden, Canada, Island...?

Because we are capitalist scum?

[duke o' york]

What can I do if I love the President too much?

[Bereta_Eder]

A very close relationship with the EU (next to actual member) while getting rid of UK will benefit everyone.

[General Ludd]

Russia will become universally prosperous and westernise and bully it's neighbors.

[Serb]

Originally posted by VetLegion
How does the author explain the relatively successful industries of Finland, Sweden, Canada, Island...?

They (two authors) simple prove with pure statistics that those countries are more warm than Russia.

The often mentioned theory that workers in cold climates are more productive than their counterparts nearer to the equator sounds far more convincing than the theory that production in cold climates is more expensive.

Yeah, right. From 1 tonn of seeds Russian peasant could grow 2, at best 3 toonns of bread, while European peasants could grow 10-15 tonns or so. So climate isn't important factor, right?

[DinoDoc]

I highly doubt that Finland is signifigantly warmer than Russia.

[Bereta_Eder]

Finland didn't have to do such huge spending on military.

[Combat Ingrid]

Besides, some of the most fertile Finnish land is nowadays occupied by Russia

[VetLegion]

Yeah, right. From 1 tonn of seeds Russian peasant could grow 2, at best 3 toonns of bread, while European peasants could grow 10-15 tonns or so. So climate isn't important factor, right?

What about soil? Croatian peasant has warm climate while his soil is mostly rocky and unsuited for agriculture. That is just give the example. If Russian climate is diasadvantageous (which is partly true, but also remember that wheat actually likes colder climates) it could have been (and will be) compensated by Russian comparative advantages - better soil, better efficiency and organization.

Are you aware that some of the types of wheat with best yield that are currently grown in Canada are of Russian origin?

Your claim that:

Russians are people too of course, but we are different people.

Is ridiculous, not because of political correctness, but because it doesn't follow from historical evidence and examples. Russians simply had bad luck with their systems of government.

If Russians are really different, how do you explain seamless integration of Russian emigrants in western societies such as USA or Europe?

[VetLegion]

And you are not alone with your "we are special" crap. Paiktis can perhaps confirm that Greeks also consider themselves to be part of west but also part of east as their culture had strong influences from the east (and they even claim to have quite some of their land in Asia ). However, Greeks did not extrapolate from that that they are destined to cycles of dictatorships followed by prosperity. Greek farmland is also next to naught.

Back to agriculture. Can someone confirm this: I am under the impression that throughout much of post-Roman European history, the Dutch have been the most productive farmers, despite their soil actually being pretty crappy and owing much to their superior efficiency and organization. Is this true?

[MrFun]

That first poll option seems unfairly skewed -- why can't a country become prosperous without Westernizing in every aspect??

[DanS]

Modern advanced economies don't rely on agriculture to any great degree, so it doesn't really matter that Russia has a short summer. It should not hamper Russia's advance. It's true that Russia has to spend a lot on energy. IIRC, Russia spends more than the US does per capita. That said, even energy shouldn't be an unduly large piece of the pie, once the basics of a sound economy are laid out. I'm reasonably optimistic about Russia's economic future.

I'm more concerned that Russia will fall into dictatorship. That's where Putin is leading Russia politically.

[MrFun]

Russia will fall back under the yoke of the revived Mongolian Empire!!!!!!!!

[Serb]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
I highly doubt that Finland is signifigantly warmer than Russia.

It is. I can't give you an average yearly temperature right now, I don't have this book right now. But it is warmer. And temperature it is not a single factor, the book says about others, but as I said I can't explain whole book within a couple of lines.

[Serb]

Originally posted by VetLegion


What about soil? Croatian peasant has warm climate while his soil is mostly rocky and unsuited for agriculture. That is just give the example. If Russian climate is diasadvantageous (which is partly true, but also remember that wheat actually likes colder climates) it could have been (and will be) compensated by Russian comparative advantages - better soil, better efficiency and organization.

Are you aware that some of the types of wheat with best yield that are currently grown in Canada are of Russian origin?

Look pall, I belive to statistic. Absolute majority of population of Canada llives in regions which by Russian standards considers as VERY warm clime. The Canada is the second largest country on Earth with population equal to population of Austria. It's population is several times lesser than population of Russia. Had Russia the same population which would live only in warm parts of the country- it would have been pretty much like canada, BUT th proble is that our population is MUCH greater- that we created much bigger civilization.

Your claim that:

Quote:

Russians are people too of course, but we are different people.

Is ridiculous, not because of political correctness, but because it doesn't follow from historical evidence and examples. Russians simply had bad luck with their systems of government.

If Russians are really different, how do you explain seamless integration of Russian emigrants in western societies such as USA or Europe?

Everyone is different. I don't claim that someone is better or worse. I just claim that people are different, as well as countries are different and cultures are different.
Is it ridiculous?

[Serb]

Originally posted by DanS
Modern advanced economies don't rely on agriculture to any great degree, so it doesn't really matter that Russia has a short summer. It should not hamper Russia's advance.

This book isn't about current time only- it's research of Russia history.

It's true that Russia has to spend a lot on energy. IIRC, Russia spends more than the US does per capita.

It's true, and aside you, for us its a question of surviaval. Currently its -34C outside. I doubt anyone can survive long in house without warm in such condition.

That said, even energy shouldn't be an unduly large piece of the pie, once the basics of a sound economy are laid out.

It's not only about energy. Construction cost much more here than for exampl in Germany, not to mention China or Taiwan. We had to dig our pipes much deeper, make our walls different, make basements stronger, etc, etc, etc.

I'm reasonably optimistic about Russia's economic future. I'm more concerned that Russia will fall into dictatorship. That's where Putin is leading Russia politically

Luckily for you Putin is not that kind of guy. Too bad for him.