The future of Russia

[DanS]

This book isn't about current time only- it's research of Russia history.

Yes, but I was implying that history won't inform us about Russia's future too much in this regard. Agriculture contributes about 1% of the US economy, for instance. And we export a lot.

It's true, and aside you, for us its a question of surviaval. Currently its -34C outside. I doubt anyone can survive long in house without warm in such condition.

Yes, you are right. I would only point out that overall, energy is less of a problem than you might think, once the overall economic situation settles down. Energy of all types contributes only about 3% of the US economy, for instance.

It's not only about energy. Construction cost much more here than for exampl in Germany, not to mention China or Taiwan. We had to dig our pipes much deeper, make our walls different, make basements stronger, etc, etc, etc.

I would merely point out that others have their own particular considerations with construction and seem to do OK. The Japanese build their buildings to withstand drastic earthquakes, for instance. The Russians are no less ingenious than the Japanese and can solve their own puzzles.

Also, I suggest that the difference in construction and maintenance costs is likely not as great as you think. Building a skyscraper in the US costs on the order of $230 a square foot, only about double what it takes to build a single-family home (about $110 a square foot, depending on where you live). In most parts of the US, one is constructed of wood and is the flimsiest of construction. The other is built of steel, concrete, and glass where mother nature doesn't intrude.

FYI, construction contributes about 8% of the US economy and 12% of the Japanese economy. But they do a lot of stupid make-work government construction.

Anyway, you've only considered about 10-15% of a modern economy (energy, agriculture, construction). As long as Russia reorganizes its economic life sufficiently, these factors shouldn't hold back Russia unduly, even if these areas are double or triple the size versus other advanced countries.

Luckily for you Putin is not that kind of guy. Too bad for him.

I hope so. Because it appears from the outside like dictatorship is being offered to him.

[DanS]

Oh, I guess you have to add in the costs to save all the wayward beer in Omsk.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/20/news...reut/index.htm

[Lancer]

Putin will rule with an iron fist over this third rate, empire wannabe slavic slum . The last of Rome is in decline and the only fight left in them is for the scraps.

The Rooskies are not 'them' any longer, and the Chinese aren't 'them' yet. The problem here in the US is that we are themless, though the Frenchies are applying for the job, however lacking everything needed except extraordinary bad manners.

[Ned]

I think Russia will become prosperous. I do not think they will join the EU. They are not that stupid.

[Seeker]

"How does the author explain the relatively successful industries of Finland, Sweden, Canada, Island...?" (vs Russia)

well you know what I think....

And comparing average temperatures in Russia and Canada is silly. Just like in Canada, few people live in the permafrost areas. Just because Siberia is bigger than the North-West Territory doesn't mean you should draw some conclusion about how (potentially) productive a territory is.

Further, Arctic lands may not be good for farming or living on, but they tend to be filled with lots of raw resources other countries want (wood, minerals, gas, etc etc). I don't imagine that Siberia is significantly poorer than the Northwest territory in being a 'bonanza' for mineral and gas resources.

The sad thing is that DESPITE being blessed with tremendous natural advantages, Russian culture has made them suck. They drink too much, are too depressed or fatalistic, not idealistic enough.

[Ned]

Seeker, being morose and drinking too much are sympthoms of a communist slave, er, .... worker who has no future.

[Seeker]

"being morose and drinking too much are sympthoms of a communist slave"

They were like that during Tsarism, but had religion to moderate it.

And it's been more than a decade since communism in russia, what's the new excuse?

EDIT: ...and look at the Czechs and Lithuanians...heck look at China's east coast...it's NOT 'the effects of communism' it's Russian culture.

[Nubclear]

I'm tempted to bite your troll, Seeker.

[Ramo]

In the short term, Putin getting more dictatorial powers doesn't seem too unlikely.

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by Saras
Serb rought to my attention a book which I still have to find and read, but the thesis in it is that Stalin and his brutality were necessary for Russias survival, and that (correct me if I'm wrong here, Serb) Russian history is doomed with a cycle of relative liberty replaced by tyranny and so on.

There is nothing new in this thesis. There is a strong view of Russian history, which strongly influences Russian politics, that Russia needs "a strong leader".

Thus Stalin identified himself as much with ruthless Tsars like Ivan the Terrible as with Lenin.

[Saras]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse


There is nothing new in this thesis. There is a strong view of Russian history, which strongly influences Russian politics, that Russia needs "a strong leader".

Thus Stalin identified himself as much with ruthless Tsars like Ivan the Terrible as with Lenin.

Exactly no new. What's new (at least to me) is an attempt to "scientificize" the cycle.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Seeker
"being morose and drinking too much are sympthoms of a communist slave"

They were like that during Tsarism, but had religion to moderate it.

And it's been more than a decade since communism in russia, what's the new excuse?

EDIT: ...and look at the Czechs and Lithuanians...heck look at China's east coast...it's NOT 'the effects of communism' it's Russian culture.

Habit?

[The Mad Monk]

http://www.weather.com/outlook/trave...om=search_city

Umm...why is the current weather in Omsk..."smoke"?

[Serb]

I don't know where they get this "smoke". from my window I see clouds and sun, no smoke.

[The Mad Monk]

Maybe it's this?

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2....1568&PageNum=0

Fire hits auto depot in Russia city

19.01.2004, 10.52

OMSK, January 19 (Itar-Tass) - An intensive fire has broken out at one of auto depots in Omsk.

Twenty-nine firefigthing crews have been rushed to the site.

Five garages with city buses are ablaze, and there is a danger to adjacent rooms.

Six Icarus buses have burned down.

There have been no immediate reports about victims.

The fire-fighters are working in a heavy smoke-out and at risk of explosion of fuel tankers.

The fire was reported at 4:12 Moscow time on Monday.

Ambulance cars are coming to the incident site that is cordoned off by police.

[Serb]

Never heard about that before (I didn't watch many local news recently) and didn't notice any smoke during last two days. It's a big city with population about 1,5 million. So, if something is burning on the other cide of the city, it's not necessary I should know about this.

[TheStinger]

Originally posted by paiktis22
A very close relationship with the EU (next to actual member) while getting rid of UK will benefit everyone.

Still gutted that the UK helped stop Stalin take over your sun filled paradise

[Saras]

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
http://www.weather.com/outlook/trave...om=search_city

Umm...why is the current weather in Omsk..."smoke"?

You need to ask?

[Cruddy]

Sorry Saras. Couldn't tick any of the possibilities because I don't think any of them are likely.

Russia will become universally prosperous and westernise and join EU, etc.

Yeltsin made it plain he would love to join the EU. The problem is that it would bankrupt the EU and lead to massive inflation inside Russia - hardly a recipe for prosperity. Also, "universally" prosperous means no poor people. Given Russia's climate, it's no wonder they're not exactly Brazil when it comes to being poor but cheerful.

HOWEVER, I think this is closest to where Russia's future lies, if only it can boost the levels of the middle classes (anaethema to many ex-Communists) withouth stamping on the face of the poor.

Russia will slip into dictatorship and bully its neighbors

Like it isn't bullying Chechnya now? However, this is a popular move within Russia, and not the result of a dictatorship.

I think Russian's, having been bitten so hard by Bolshevism, are not about to go down the autocratic route - at least not to the extreme.

Russia will recreate USSR

This is the most unlikely thing for the above reasons.

Russia will become a banana republic

Just about possible if global warming goes that far .

In short - I think Russia has a bright future if it can maintain excellence in space, in mineral production and in political diversity.

The tricky bit is to get the foreign exchange in without exporting large amounts of weaponry which can cause instability outside of Russia and hence lead to instability inside Russia.

[Aivo½so]

I like to hope that Russia has a bright future so I ticked the first option. The "coldness theory" doesn't sound plausible to me. The fatalism typical of Russians shines through.

[The Vagabond]

There is a fundamental inconsistency in your poll, Saras. Things like becoming prosperous and westernized, bullying the neighbors, and recreating the USSR are not incompartible! On the contrary, they should all be realized simultaneously on a complementary basis!

[The Vagabond]

Like it isn't bullying Chechnya now?

Chechnya is not a neighbor! It's a part of the Russian Federation. Therefore, this doesn't fall under the "bullying the neighbor" category in Saras' poll.

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Seeker
The sad thing is that DESPITE being blessed with tremendous natural advantages, Russian culture has made them suck. They drink too much, are too depressed or fatalistic, not idealistic enough.

Yeah, right. Just grabbing money can't make Russian man happy. He needs to know everything is part of a greater cause.

[Ben Kenobi]

They were like that during Tsarism, but had religion to moderate it.

So restore religion, and you satisfy Russians? Not that far-fetched. Solzhenitsyn maks a similar conclusion.

[Bereta_Eder]

Originally posted by TheStinger


Still gutted that the UK helped stop Stalin take over your sun filled paradise

Thanking you for supporting brutes that made Greece a macarthian like state for decades? No thank you. I'd rather thank those who fought for democracy for this little piece of land throughout the end of WW2.

[Ecthy]

which must be why Greece became a proper democracy directly after the war

[Mr. President]

I think Russia will recover most of its Soviet-era power in time.

[Alexander's Horse]

If Greece was given back to Turkey that would solve a lot of arguments.

[Odin]

Too cold for agriculture? The climate of Moscow is almost identical to northern Minnesota, and we don't have any problems growing wheat, corn, beets, beans, sunflowers, soybeans, carrots, apples, strawberries, cherries, and grapes (yes, Minnesota has a few small wine makers).