The Economist: Let the Dollar Fall - Page 4

Giancarlo · February 17, 2004, 01:04

Quote:

Originally posted by el freako
I would like to see such indicators, Spain's economy is around 60% the size of Italy's - if the gap in the underlying growth rate is maintained (1.3% during 1994-03) then it will be in the late 2040's that Spain passes Italy.
Spain's GDP per head is 88% of Italy's, at the current difference in underlying growth rates per head (2.3% for Spain, 1.4% for Italy) it will take until the mid 2020's for Spain to catch up.

Okay thanks for clearing it up. I was talking about the GDP per capita (or per head).

el freako · February 17, 2004, 01:13

Quote:

Originally posted by Fez

Okay thanks for clearing it up. I was talking about the GDP per capita (or per head).

So was I when I said,

Quote:

Originally posted by El Freako
it will take around half that time for Spains average income to reach western european levels

In the original post which you obviously didn't read properly.

Giancarlo · February 17, 2004, 01:15

Quote:

Originally posted by el freako

So was I when I said,

In the original post which you obviously didn't read properly.

Sorry I didn't notice you said that.

Please take it easy on me tonight. I'm signing off... my stomach is just killing me... I knew I shouldn't of eaten that vanilla ice cream. Damn lactose intolerance. Runs in the family. Anyways, have a good day... and as always, back to the topic.

el freako · February 17, 2004, 02:35

Okay, no problem.

And I really hope you feel better soon

Giancarlo · February 17, 2004, 02:37

Quote:

Originally posted by el freako
Okay, no problem.

And I really hope you feel better soon

Ehhh.. feel better now.. but it is still bugging me. Better get to bed.. later.

Tingkai · February 17, 2004, 02:46

Quote:

Originally posted by Oerdin

Eventually they will have no choice but until they hit the economic wall they will continue to buy dollars in an attempt to devalue their own currencies thus improving their own exports to the US.

China and Japan are not buying US dollars to "devalue their own currencies". The renminbi is officially peg at a set rate and the Yen is unofficially pegged within a tight margin.

The two countries have resisted American calls to allow their currencies to rise in value against the greenback.

Also, the US dollar is being devalued, hence its decline against most major currencies.

Tingkai · February 17, 2004, 03:05

Quote:

Originally posted by Kidicious
Let the Dollar Fall
I think this is interesting. People here at Poly seem to be in two camps. The conservative camp believes in a stronger dollar and a balanced budget for the US. The other camp wants fiscal stimulus and a weaker dollar.

Seems to me that most conservatives are saying that budget deficits don't matter. They also prefer a weaker dollar because it creates jobs and more jobs boost their chances of being re-elected.

However, the cost of pushing the dollar down is that imports cost more.

Quote:

Originally posted by Kidicious
The Economist calls for a weaker dollar and a balanced budget though.

There's a major flaw in the Economist's logic. If there is a balanced budget then there is less foreign debt for the US. This would reduce the current account deficit and remove the weakness of the dollar.

The dollar is weak because of Bushie's reckless overspending. If return to good fiscal management would strengthen the dollar.

Tingkai · February 17, 2004, 03:07

Quote:

Originally posted by Kidicious

Everyones economy seems to be on the edge of colapse. No one can afford our goods, because it costs more than dollars to imports goods. It costs jobs, as we well know here in the US. It appears that globalization isn't working. Protectionism isn't the answer either. We are probably just screwed.

Are you saying that the weaker US dollar makes it more expensive for other countries to import American goods? If you are saying this then you are wrong.

Az · February 17, 2004, 03:55

good for spain on the 0.6% population growth. They're maintaining a balance close to perfect.

Giancarlo · February 17, 2004, 03:56

Quote:

Originally posted by Azazel
good for spain on the 0.6% population growth. They're maintaining a balance close to perfect.

My stomach is still bugging me.. maybe it was food poisoning.

Anyways, perfect? So you think our capitalist state is close to perfect? Good.

I do too.

Az · February 17, 2004, 04:07

way of taking my words out of context.

I said your demographics are close to perfect.

CharlesBHoff · February 17, 2004, 04:39

Patrick J. Buchanan book the Death of the West is proven correct. The UN and Pat use 2.1 baby per woman per her baby bearing years as replacement rate.
Percentable can be missleading which would rather have 1% of 1 million dollar or 20% of 100 dollar.

The fertility rate of Eupore:
England for nonmuslim is 1.66 for muslim 3.00
Russia is 1,17
Spain is 1.07
Italy is 1.2
Czech is 1.2
Romania is 1.2
Germany is 1.3
Europe for unlist nation except for muslim Alania which have 4.00 rate. Other euporean nations 1.4

Italy was below replacement rate for 25 year what wrong with those Italion woman.

Giancarlo · February 17, 2004, 05:06

Quote:

Originally posted by Azazel
way of taking my words out of context.

I said your demographics are close to perfect.

I am just twisting your words to my advantage.

CharlesBHoff: Pat Buchanan is perhaps the most unreliable person you could turn to. That is like asking Pat Robertson or even Fred Phelps about gay rights. He is a raving lunatic.

In Spain, we have a steady population growth, not declining as was proved. So your numbers are off. The problem with Italy is Italian women wait till too late to have children.

Tingkai · February 17, 2004, 05:55

Quote:

Originally posted by CharlesBHoff
The fertility rate of Eupore:
England for nonmuslim is 1.66 for muslim 3.00
Russia is 1,17
Spain is 1.07
Italy is 1.2
Czech is 1.2
Romania is 1.2
Germany is 1.3
Europe for unlist nation except for muslim Alania which have 4.00 rate. Other euporean nations 1.4

Italy was below replacement rate for 25 year what wrong with those Italion woman.

Italy? What about Spain. Those Spanish men are having a problem delivering the goods.

Of course, if we rely on your number, the solution is to bring in more muslim immigrants. But a better solution is to allow more Chinese immigrants. They'll show you how to get the job done.

el freako · February 17, 2004, 06:40

Quote:

Originally posted by Tingkai

Italy? What about Spain. Those Spanish men are having a problem delivering the goods.

Of course, if we rely on your number, the solution is to bring in more muslim immigrants. But a better solution is to allow more Chinese immigrants. They'll show you how to get the job done.

Actually the rate for China is around 1.8

The best are black africans who have a TPFR of between 5 and 8

Tingkai · February 17, 2004, 07:00

Quote:

Originally posted by el freako
Actually the rate for China is around 1.8

Which is still much higher than the Euros.

China has a birth rate of 16 per 1,000;
Spain has a measly 9/1,000

Besides, with Chinese immigrants you'll get lots of hard-working entrepreneurs.

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 11:13

Quote:

Originally posted by Tingkai

Are you saying that the weaker US dollar makes it more expensive for other countries to import American goods? If you are saying this then you are wrong.

No, importing goods costs jobs, as well as dollars. That's my comment.

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 11:21

Quote:

Originally posted by Tingkai
There's a major flaw in the Economist's logic. If there is a balanced budget then there is less foreign debt for the US. This would reduce the current account deficit and remove the weakness of the dollar.

The dollar is weak because of Bushie's reckless overspending. If return to good fiscal management would strengthen the dollar.

Monetary policy is the biggest factor determining the strength of the dollar. The deficit could be much larger and the Fed could raise interest rates and cause the dollar to strengthen. I think the Economist worries about the ability of the US govt to continue borrowing in the future when they really need it. I don't agree with them though.

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 11:24

Quote:

Originally posted by Tingkai

China and Japan are not buying US dollars to "devalue their own currencies". The renminbi is officially peg at a set rate and the Yen is unofficially pegged within a tight margin.

The two countries have resisted American calls to allow their currencies to rise in value against the greenback.

Also, the US dollar is being devalued, hence its decline against most major currencies.

If the dollar is being devalued, and the remnimbi is pegged to it then the remnimbi is being devalued also.

el freako · February 17, 2004, 11:56

Quote:

Originally posted by Tingkai

Which is still much higher than the Euros.

Surely you mean higher than some european countries.
France and Ireland have a higher TPFR than China.

Quote:

Originally posted by Tingkai
China has a birth rate of 16 per 1,000;
Spain has a measly 9/1,000

The birthrate is not the sole determinant of population growth - you also need to look at the deathrate.

Whoha · February 17, 2004, 12:13

Quote:

Originally posted by Kidicious

No, importing goods costs jobs, as well as dollars. That's my comment.

And that attitude is why we should stop trading with them. They can easily buy from us without taking their own jobs because they have MASSIVE trade surplusses with us, and it will not hurt local business or take money out of their economy. And with that kind of trade both sides gain, however what we have now is not it.

el freako · February 17, 2004, 12:19

China does run a large trade surplus with the US, but it's overall surplus is much lower.
So surely that means that the US get's higher exports to some of the intermediate countries?

Looking at trade as a zero-sum game is daft (and was disproved around two centuries ago)

CharlesBHoff · February 17, 2004, 14:37

Quote:

Originally posted by Giancarlo

I am just twisting your words to my advantage.

CharlesBHoff: Pat Buchanan is perhaps the most unreliable person you could turn to. That is like asking Pat Robertson or even Fred Phelps about gay rights. He is a raving lunatic.

In Spain, we have a steady population growth, not declining as was proved. So your numbers are off. The problem with Italy is Italian women wait till too late to have children.

England for one year have 3.0 babies per child bearing non-muslim but that was a flute. Long term the outlook is different for England and Spain. Japon have than worst rate than any European nation. China is than special case as Mao went against the advice of his long term advior and friend to not control China birthrate in fact Mao encought woman to have more babies.

Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 14:40

Quote:

Originally posted by Whoha

And that attitude is why we should stop trading with them. They can easily buy from us without taking their own jobs because they have MASSIVE trade surplusses with us, and it will not hurt local business or take money out of their economy. And with that kind of trade both sides gain, however what we have now is not it.

Just because the have a trade surplus with us doesn't mean that they don't suffer from unemployment. In fact they do suffer from unemployment. It's probably higher than in the US.

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 14:42

Quote:

Originally posted by el freako
Looking at trade as a zero-sum game is daft (and was disproved around two centuries ago)

Only under ideal conditions which almost never exist. Sometimes it's win-win and sometimes it's zero-sum. There is no law.

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 14:44

Quote:

Originally posted by CharlesBHoff
Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

More babies may stimulate some consumer spending too.

Whoha · February 17, 2004, 15:44

Quote:

Originally posted by el freako
China does run a large trade surplus with the US, but it's overall surplus is much lower.
So surely that means that the US get's higher exports to some of the intermediate countries?

Looking at trade as a zero-sum game is daft (and was disproved around two centuries ago)

it IS a zero sum gain when its only 1 way trade. The whole basis of Ricardo's free trade theory was comparative advantage, not absolute advantage.

JohnT · February 17, 2004, 15:59

Quote:

Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

Hell, I've got one kid, the wife doesn't work and nobody bothers to pays us. How hard is it to learn Japanese anyway?

Kidicious · February 17, 2004, 16:08

Quote:

Originally posted by Whoha

it IS a zero sum gain when its only 1 way trade. The whole basis of Ricardo's free trade theory was comparative advantage, not absolute advantage.

Theoretically 1 way trade could be win-win, but in reality, and from a purely economic stand point, never is.

Drake Tungsten · February 17, 2004, 21:54

Quote:

Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

I wonder if I would qualify for this. The Japanese government wants babies, but I'm not sure if they want hakujin ones...