Election 2004 "wargaming" - Page 2

Q Classic · March 3, 2004, 22:42

i'll play the world's saddest song on the world's smallest violin for you

monkspider · March 3, 2004, 22:43

While actual exchange of fire is unlikely, I think that a breakup of the union may be possible.

Q Classic · March 3, 2004, 22:43

and thus will end pax americana.

Boris Godunov · March 3, 2004, 22:44

Quote:

Originally posted by David Floyd
Even Pat Buchanan came out and said something along those lines, IIRC. .

IIRC, Buchanan was one of the first to say something was up with the numbers he got in Palm Beach and acknowledged those thousands of votes were meant for Gore, not him.

Nubclear · March 3, 2004, 22:44

Or if Bush gets elected.
Either way.

Imran Siddiqui · March 3, 2004, 22:44

jeez, monk.. you are as wacked in the head as Kucinich (I think I've said this before

).

David Floyd · March 3, 2004, 22:44

Again, why? I can't think of any state so overwhelmingly for Bush or for Kerry that they would have enough of a majority both able and willing to vote for secession. Makes no sense. I mean, some idiot actors (Alec Baldwin *cough* *cough*) might threaten to move away, but that'd be it.

David Floyd · March 3, 2004, 22:45

Boris, yeah that's my point - Bush is gonna lose Florida this time because all of those votes are going to swing over to Kerry.

Boris Godunov · March 3, 2004, 22:49

Quote:

Originally posted by David Floyd
Boris, yeah that's my point - Bush is gonna lose Florida this time because all of those votes are going to swing over to Kerry.

This is making a big assumption that Florida will be as close as it was last time. Last I read (granted, it was December), Bush was outpolling any of the Democrats there by a reasonably comfortable margin.

Q Classic · March 3, 2004, 22:50

i want the two party system to be destroyed.

Boris Godunov · March 3, 2004, 22:50

Quote:

Originally posted by Q Cubed
i want the two party system to be destroyed.

It wants to destroy you, too.

Q Classic · March 3, 2004, 22:53

which is why i must strike first. i refuse to vote, and i swear i will break the fingers of anybody who wants to. if nobody votes, they cannot be held liable for the behavior of people they didn't put into power.

Boris Godunov · March 3, 2004, 22:55

On the other hand, they can't complain about a situation they didn't vote to try and change.

I thought a perpetually moderate person would like the 2-party system? It does seem to encourage a good deal of moderation.

Nubclear · March 3, 2004, 22:59

2 party system encourages extremes. 2 of them, to be exact.

monkspider · March 3, 2004, 22:59

Are there any other states that went to the GOP last time that may go Democrat this time? Missouri perhaps, Tennesee? Florida maybe?

Ramo · March 3, 2004, 23:01

The biggies are Ohio, West Viginia, Arizona, Florida, and New Hampshire. Missouri and Tennessee are longshots IMO.

monkspider · March 3, 2004, 23:08

Thanks Ramo.

Ben Kenobi · March 3, 2004, 23:08

Nah.

Bush in a landslide.

You heard it here first.

Boris Godunov · March 3, 2004, 23:13

Definition of a landslide is more than a 10 percentage point difference. That ain't happening, no way. Whoever wins will win by, at the most, 4-5 percentage points.

Ramo · March 3, 2004, 23:14

Incidentally, Kerry's would win New Hampshire with a landslide according to the recent polls.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

And np monkspider.

Q Classic · March 3, 2004, 23:47

if this two party has create moderate policies, it has done so without thought, without planning, and without any sort of desire to help the citizenry. any moderate plans are accidents, and everything else is an abomination.

mrmitchell · March 4, 2004, 00:06

QQQ: What would you rather have then?

Guynemer · March 4, 2004, 00:09

Quote:

Originally posted by David Floyd
Guynemer,

I don't see how Bush can lose in Colorado, and I really don't think that Bush will win in New Mexico. Pennsylvania is a possibility - but wouldn't trade be a big issue in that state?

That's pretty much exactly what I said--highly unlikely for Kerry to win Colorado, with New Mexico and Pennsylvania being more-or-less toss-ups, but leaning toward the Dems.

-----------------------------------------

If I had to make a prediction now, Kerry wins the popular vote by 2-3%, holds onto all the '00 Blue states, picks up NH and WV--which I just now realized would give us exactly the same situation: 269-269.

Yikes.

Again, ultimately, not very likely when considering all possible combinations; however, I really think that this is the most likely specific state-by-state breakdown.

This is... troubling.

Kuciwalker · March 4, 2004, 00:15

How could anyone claim he was "illegitimate"? So we should just ignore the Constitution when you don't like it?

(Wait a second... people still claim the Supreme Court decision in 2000 was "illegitimate"... never mind)

Guynemer · March 4, 2004, 00:19

I don't think reasonable people would claim he would be illegitimate... they may use that word, but not mean exactly the definition.

It would be perfectly legitimate and Constitutional; however, and I think most people would agree with this, it would be highly "immoral," for lack of a better word.

DinoDoc · March 4, 2004, 00:19

How so?

monkspider · March 4, 2004, 00:19

Well put Guy.

Kuciwalker · March 4, 2004, 00:21

Quote:

Originally posted by Guynemer
I don't think reasonable people would claim he would be illegitimate... they may use that word, but not mean exactly the definition.

It would be perfectly legitimate and Constitutional; however, and I think most people would agree with this, it would be highly "immoral," for lack of a better word.

So he should just drop out if he doesn't get the popular vote?

Can he do that? If he and Cheney both resigned, the Speaker of the House would become president-elect, wouldn't he?

Guynemer · March 4, 2004, 00:24

Quote:

Originally posted by DinoDoc
How so?

It just strikes me as wrong that a vote by a partisan Congress would determine who became President, when the voting public has already made clear who won the popular vote.

I know it is Constitutional, and legal. But it would leave a dirty taste in my mouth.

Guynemer · March 4, 2004, 00:26

Quote:

Originally posted by skywalker

So he should just drop out if he doesn't get the popular vote?

Can he do that? If he and Cheney both resigned, the Speaker of the House would become president-elect, wouldn't he?

You're absolutely right.

That is exactly why this scenario bothers me so much.

DD--admit it. This scenario is at least somewhat likely, is it not? It shouldn't take a great leap of imagination to envision the EC shaking out in the way I describe.

Your candidate would end up winning, yes, by totally legal means. But wouldn't it make you feel a little... I really don't know what word I'm looking for, but I know you're more than smart enough to know what I'm driving at.