Socialist claim victory in Spain

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Spiffor
I wouldn't build an arguments solely a grounds as shaky as last week's polls. Really.

I am not really trying to build an argument. I am simply trying to point out that the time frame between the bombings and the elections may have swayed the vote. AQ obviously knew when the elections were and were obviously trying to have some effect. Based upon the evidence at hand, it is likely that they did. Weather you consider the polls valid or not, in the abscence of controverting data, they must be considered. Weather or not this evidence is compelling is the source of the debate and a question that everyone in a democracy should ask themselves.

Precedent and perception often walk together. If AQ percieves that they were successful in advancing their cause, then I can see targeting elections as an event soon to follow. If the people in a democracy become terrorized on election days then surely we have all lost.

Again, I am not trying to build a case, but rather raise an issue that is well worthy of consideration regardless of anyone's politics.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by PLATO
Precedent and perception often walk together. If AQ percieves that they were successful in advancing their cause, then I can see targeting elections as an event soon to follow. If the people in a democracy become terrorized on election days then surely we have all lost.

Again, I am not trying to build a case, but rather raise an issue that is well worthy of consideration regardless of anyone's politics.

This is true, and even though I am very proud of the Spanish people for having ousted the liars and manipulators of the PP, I'm worried by the way Zapatero brought the Iraq issue right in the wake of his election, and of the attacks.

This is an extremely wrong signal, and I think he should have stopped to think a bit before opening his mouth.

[Drake Tungsten]

MADRID, Spain (CNN) -- One of the five men arrested in connection with the deadly Madrid train bombings has links to the plotters of an al Qaeda-linked bombing in Casablanca last year, CNN has learned.

The May 2003 suicide attacks in Casablanca killed nearly three dozen people.

Spanish authorities have arrested five people in connection with the Madrid bombings: three Moroccans and two Indians.

One of the men, Jamal Zougam, 30, has ties to two brothers who have been charged in connection with the Casablanca bomb plot, according to a Moroccan government official.

Zougam is also believed to be a follower of Imad Eddin Barakat Yarkas, the alleged ringleader of al Qaeda in Spain, according to a Spanish court document.

All five are being held incommunicado under Spain's anti-terrorism law, which requires they be charged within five days of their detention.

Authorities said investigators tracked the men through a cellular telephone and a pre-paid telephone card found in a backpack containing explosives that was found shortly after Thursday's attacks.

CNN also has obtained a document posted on an Internet message board analysts believe is used by al Qaeda and its sympathizers that spells out the terrorist group's plan to separate Spain from the U.S.-led coalition on Iraq.

The strategy spelled out in the document, posted last December on the Internet, calls for using terrorist attacks to drive Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's Partido Popular from power and replace it with the Socialists.

That was expected to drive a wedge between Washington and Madrid and result in the withdrawal of Spanish military forces from Iraq.

"We think the Spanish government will not stand more than two blows, or three at the most, before it will be forced to withdraw because of the public pressure on it," the al Qaeda document says.

"If its forces remain after these blows, the victory of the Socialist Party will be almost guaranteed -- and the withdrawal of Spanish forces will be on its campaign manifesto."

That prediction came to fruition in elections Sunday, with the Socialists unseating the Popular Party three days after near-simultaneous bombings of four trains killed 200 and shocked the nation.

Ninety percent of Spaniards had opposed Aznar's staunch support for the U.S.-led war against Iraq, and some have blamed Aznar's policies for the train bombings.

Prime Minister-elect Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Monday he wants the 1,300 Spanish troops in Iraq to return home by June 30 if the United Nations "doesn't take control of Iraq."

"I think Spain's participation in the war has been a total error," he said. (Full story)

Adding to the investigation is a videotape in which a man claiming to be a military spokesman for al Qaeda in Europe says the terrorist network was behind the bombings.

In the United States, Asa Hutchinson, the undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security, said the Madrid bombings had the fingerprints of al Qaeda.

"We do know that there is a connection to al Qaeda. We have verified that," he told CNN. "At this point, there clearly is some link and we're going to continue to see the depth of that."

However, another administration official would only say Islamic fundamentalists remain high on the list of suspects.

"Things are slightly leaning towards Islamic fundamentalist responsibility, as opposed to pure ETA or al Qaeda," one senior administration official said.

ETA is a Basque separatist group that has been fighting for more than three decades for an independent state. The group is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

The U.S. intelligence community is considering the possibility that the bombings may have been carried out by a number of people with various ties to terrorist groups, the senior administration official said, adding that theories include the following possibilities:


Islamic fundamentalists with support from ETA;


Islamic fundamentalists with close ties to al Qaeda, although not necessarily "card-carrying members of al Qaeda"; or,


Members of ETA or al Qaeda.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said he was confident Spain would continue to play a significant role in the war on terrorism.

"Terrorism has to be defeated," he said. "I don't think the Spanish people are any more inclined to give any encouragement to terrorists or to give terrorists the slightest impression that they are not going to be engaged fully by the Spanish government -- no matter who is prime minister."

Powell added that he was not sure if the Madrid bombings affected the outcome of Sunday's elections: "But the one thing I'm quite sure of is that Spanish people remain committed in the war against terrorists."

In the wake of the bombings, Spanish Interior Minister Angel Acebes announced Monday that a European Union anti-terrorist conference will be held Friday in Madrid.

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/eu...est/index.html

Al Qaeda must be ecstatic; it only took one blow for them to achieve their goals. God help all of you in Europe...

[Ned]

Originally posted by molly bloom



I see. The Right and the Conservative Spanish government say the attack was the work of E.T.A.- all this despite E.T.A.'s denial, and an admission of guilt from an organisation linking itself to Al Qaeda and Moroccan Islamic extremists.

All this misinformation in a mere 48 hours, despite no conclusive forensic investigation.

Do you think the Right has oracular or telepathic powers we don't know about, Ned?

The gov't. annouce the al Qaeda tape and the arrests of the Morrocans prior to the election.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Al Qaeda must be ecstatic; it only took one blow for them to achieve their goals. God help all of you in Europe...

It's official- the Tungsten continuum has been overwhelmed by the Nedaverse.

Oh Ned-

'Spain Announces Five Arrests in Bombings

MADRID, Spain (AP) - Spain's interior minister Saturday announced the arrest of five suspects in the Madrid bombings, including three Moroccans.

The other two suspects had Indian passports, a ministry spokesman said.

The five were arrested in connection with a cell phone inside an explosives-packed gym bag found on one of the bombed commuter trains.

The suspects ``could be related to Moroccan extremist groups,'' the minister said. ``But we should not rule out anything. Police are still investigating all avenues. This opens an important avenue.'' '

The doorman saw the men get out of the van and ``walk toward the train carrying backpacks and he was struck by the fact that they were wearing ski masks when the weather was not suited for that kind of clothing,'' the official said.

``It is one of the main focuses of the investigation,'' the official said. ``It is very important.''

A London-based Arabic newspaper also received a claim of responsibility in al-Qaida's name that called the attack ``part of settling old accounts with Spain, the crusader, and America's ally in its war against Islam.''

The attack's lethal coordination and timing - 10 explosions within 15 minutes - suggested al-Qaida. But the compressed dynamite used in the backpack bombs is an explosive favored by the Basque separatist group ETA.

ETA issued an apparently unprecedented denial Friday, saying it had nothing to do with the bombings. It has claimed responsibility for more than 800 deaths since 1968 in its fight for an independent state in the northern Basque region.

If ETA is deemed responsible, that could boost support for Mariano Rajoy, Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar's hand-picked candidate to succeed him as prime minister. Both have supported a crackdown on ETA, ruling out talks and backing a ban on ETA's political wing, Batasuna. '

Gosh, wonder why the party in power were blaming E.T.A. before the arrests of the Moroccans and Asians, only a day before the election?

[Drake Tungsten]

It's official- the Tungsten continuum has been overwhelmed by the Nedaverse.

Only a complete moron would think that Al Qaeda isn't ecstatic about this turn of events.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by PLATO
Weather you consider the polls valid or not,

Yeah, all of this is quite cloudy.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Only a complete moron would think that Al Qaeda isn't ecstatic about this turn of events.

I don't think it will change much for them. It's not like the PSOE would not have supported the war in Afghanistan.

[Ned]

Molly, I have no doubt that I would be angry with the PP for such stupendous stupidity for trying to deny the obvious: that al Qaeda was involved. But that does not change the essence of what happened. Al Qaeda attacked because Spain supported the Coalition in Iraq. It's very purpose was to influence the elections to elect the socialists who said they would withdraw from the Coalition. Al Qaeda succeeded.

They will now have major incentive to continue to focus attacks on the Coalition during elections in order to elect anti-Coalition parties. They will also use this success as a major recruiting tool in the future.

The fate of Iraq is also jeopardized in a major way. The presence of Spanish forces helping the Iraqi people was important if not critical. The people of Iraq may lose confidence in the Coalition and may be more willing themselves to do the bidding of al Qaeda.

This whole series of events is a major, major defeat for the West and a major victory for al Qaeda.

[Tripledoc]

The kill ratio is still very much in the socalled West's favour.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


Yeah, all of this is quite cloudy.

What's your point?

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by Ned
They will now have major incentive to continue to focus attacks on the Coalition during elections in order to elected anti-Coalition parties. They will also use this success as a major recruiting tool in the future.

No, attacking Iraq only helped Al-Qaeda recruitment. Not going there would have hindred their cause- for now.

(Yeah, I do think that in the long run a succesful Iraq might help in the war against Al-Qaeda, but not until a few years)

[Ned]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


I don't think it will change much for them. It's not like the PSOE would not have supported the war in Afghanistan.

Oncle, we you not arguing just a few days ago that the attack was not about Afghanistan, but about Iraq?

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by PLATO


What's your point?

I was just teasing you because you said "weather or not".

[Ned]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


No, attacking Iraq only helped Al-Qaeda recruitment. Not going there would have hindred their cause- for now.

(Yeah, I do think that in the long run a succesful Iraq might help in the war against Al-Qaeda, but not until a few years)

Do you think Kerry ought to applaud Spain's withdrawal from the coalition?

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by Ned
Oncle, we you not arguing just a few days ago that the attack was not about Afghanistan, but about Iraq?

Oh, not so fast. I said that it could have been about Iraq- I was only supposing this in order to play upon my 'morality check', but not categorically asserting it.

The fact is, attacking Iraq did nothing to hinder Al-Qaeda. In fact, it probably helped recruitment. If Madrid's attacks are related to this, then it is because it was seen as an aggression against Muslims, but not directly against Al-Qaeda's infrastructure.

[Oncle Boris]

Originally posted by Ned
Do you think Kerry ought to applaud Spain's withdrawal from the coalition?

They announced that they would withdraw?

My stance on Iraq, is that I think whether you agreed or not with the war in the first place, America should fulfill the duty it has undertaken- and with the help of the UN, if possible, to repair the diplomatic mess.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


I was just teasing you because you said "weather or not".

I never can get that one right!

[MOBIUS]

Actually I think it can be argued that Aznar and the PP made it more likely for Spain to be attacked...

By attacking Iraq instead of finishing Al-Qaeda vital resources were (and still are!) tied up in a pointless sideshow when they could have been used hunting down and destroying Al-Qaeda to the ends of the earth!

Just think what position Al-Qaeda might be in now if all the resources wasted on Iraq had been brought to bear on OBL and pals?

Would they have even been able to have mounted this bombing if they hadn't been allowed to regroup!?

Well...?

Personally I think that is the REAL crime!

[Drake Tungsten]

Actually I think it can be argued that Aznar and the PP made it more likely for Spain to be attacked...

Of course they did. Aznar's support for the US brought Spain to the attention of Al Qaeda; if he had abandoned the US like so many of our other European "allies", Spain might've been able to fly under the radar.

Just think what position Al-Qaeda might be in now if all the resources wasted on Iraq had been brought to bear on OBL and pals?

I doubt it would've made much difference. We can't easily get to Bin Laden because of political concerns vis-a-vis Pakistan, not because of any lack of resources.

[PLATO]

MOBIUS,

AQ has expended vast amount of resources in Iraq as well. It has been demonstrated by captured documents that they have focused on disrupting coalition efforts there. Your argument could just as easily be made in reverse.

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

Quote:

It's official- the Tungsten continuum has been overwhelmed by the Nedaverse.

Only a complete moron would think that Al Qaeda isn't ecstatic about this turn of events.

Oh, so that isn't your line of thought then?

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by Tripledoc
The kill ratio is still very much in the socalled West's favour.

That is soooo West- morland of you.

[Alexander's Horse]

Don't feel bad about the Socialist victory. Look on the bright side - Fez made a complete fool of himself again.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


They announced that they would withdraw?

My stance on Iraq, is that I think whether you agreed or not with the war in the first place, America should fulfill the duty it has undertaken- and with the help of the UN, if possible, to repair the diplomatic mess.

Unfortunately, they said they would withdraw. I can hardly think Kerry would be pleased by this as even he has agreed that we need more international support in Iraq.

[Ned]

I just saw Clark on Scarborough. He may presage what Kerry has to say.

He disagreed that the Spanish election had anything to do with appeasement of al Qaeda. He said that what it does illustrate is that Bush has been focused on the wrong issues and that we should strengthen our laws, define terrorism and should cooperate better on intelligence. He again asserted that Iraq had (has) nothing to do with al Qaeda, but does agree that we cannot withdraw.

He denies that the Spanish elections will make attacks against other coaltition partners more likely, especially to influence their elections.

Clarks comments are very similar to the comments we have heard here from the Kerry supporters.

[Giancarlo]

Well some here must be estatic that AL Qaeda won a victory. Particularily Sava.

[Alexander's Horse]

A victory for common sense is all it was. Made my day.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Giancarlo
Well some here must be estatic that AL Qaeda won a victory. Particularily Sava.

You know Giancarlo, what I find simply amazing is the denial by the left that the attacks, their association with al Qaeda and Spain's involvement in Iraq did not influence the election. They clearly did given the pre-attack polls showing the PP way ahead.

What this shows is that the left is feeling very vulnerable on this issue.

[Giancarlo]

Well some seem to think that some how the Popular Party was responsible. They are the arrogant, misinformed idiot. There is an election in two years for the seats, and I believe this government will collapse by then.