Socialist claim victory in Spain

[Agathon]

Originally posted by PLATO


Say we all left. Then what, genius?

You don't have to leave. You just have to go to Kofi Annan cap in hand and say, "we will give you absolute control and you sort out the transition".

You'd be surprised at the support that would get. Canada would fall all over itself to help as would Mexico and your other friends. Al Quaeda would lose big time if that happened.

A problem shared is a problem halved.

[jasev]

OK, I'm going to bed now. I must be in class in 8 hours and I really need to sleep.

Good night to everybody. Even to OliverFA.

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by PLATO


Please explain a bit further how you think that this line of postulation would lead to the conclusions you draw. I am really curious as to the corelations that you are drawing to gain these conclusions. (Unless of course that was just a troll )

Well I couldn't help thinking that the Spanish people (like the British) have lived with the knowledge and the effects of terrorism for years:

'
1959

Euskadi Ta Askatasuma (Basque Homeland and Freedom) is established as Spain enters the 20th year of General Franco's fascist dictatorship.
The Basque language has been banned, its culture suppressed, and intellectuals imprisoned and tortured for their political and cultural beliefs. Eta's founders are students dissatisfied with the moderates in the existing Basque Nationalist Party, the Partido Nacionalista Vasco, or PNV.

1961

The only armed group to emerge during the Franco years, Eta attempts its first large-scale operation, the derailing of a train carrying civil war veterans travelling to San Sebastian (Donostia in Basque) to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the start of the Spanish civil war.

The attempt fails, and police respond with road controls, arrests, house searches and the widespread use of torture.

1968

The group commits its first murder. Meliton Manzanas, the San Sebastian police chief, is the victim.

1973

Eta registers its most spectacular success, assassinating Admiral Luis Carrero Blanco, the prime minister and Franco's most likely successor. The group tunnelled under the road used by the admiral on his daily route from mass, mining it and blowing his car over a four-storey building.

1974

Eta is blamed for a bomb attack on a central Madrid bar frequented by police officers. The attack kills 12 people and seriously injures 69.

1975

Franco dies, and Juan Carlos, the grandson of Spain's last ruling king, takes his place.

1978

Spain's new democratic constitution gives autonomous powers to a Basque government in the provinces of Alava, Vizcaya and Guipuzcoa, with a parliament, police force, control over education, and tax-raising powers. Eta's political wing, Herri Batasuna, is founded to press for full independence for the three provinces and neighbouring Navarre.

1979

Madrid's airport and two railway stations are the target of simultaneous bombings, causing six deaths and 130 injuries.

1980

118 people are killed in what is Eta's bloodiest year to date.

1983-87

Gal, the anti-terrorist liberation group, is set up to fight a dirty war against Eta. Its agents carry out assassinations of known Eta members (and several who were not), kidnappings, bombings and torture, killing 27 people during the 80s.

1987

21 shoppers are killed when a bomb hits a Barcelona supermarket. Eta apologises for a "mistake."

1988-95

Judge Baltasar Garzon begins to look at links between the government and Gal. It emerges that Gal groups were made up entirely of mercenaries recruited by two policemen using public funds. The prime minister, Felipe Gonzalez, denies that he authorised their actions, but the scandal taints the ailing administration.

1995

The Popular Party (PP) leader, Jose Maria Aznar, is saved from an Eta car bomb by his car's armour plating. Police foil a plot to kill Juan Carlos in Majorca.

1996

The PP defeats the Socialist Party (PSOE) in the general election, and Mr Aznar becomes prime minister.

1997

Demanding that Basque prisoners are moved closer to home, Eta kidnaps and kills a Basque councillor, Miguel Angel Blanco. Six million Spaniards demonstrate against Eta on the streets. The year ends with 23 leaders of Herri Batasuna being given seven years in jail for collaborating with Eta, the first time any members of the party have been jailed for their links to the group.

1998

Eta announces its first indefinite ceasefire. A former interior minister, Jose Barrionuevo, is jailed for ten years for his part in the Gal operation.

1999

Eta ends its ceasefire, blaming lack of progress in talks with the Spanish government.

2000

A January car bombing, that kills an army officer in Madrid, marks a return to violence.

Over the following months, one PSOE, one Basque and two PP politicians are killed in car bomb and shooting attacks in the Basque region and southern Spain; a newspaper columnist, Jose Luis de la Calle, is shot dead; and four suspected Eta members are killed when their car, loaded with arms and explosives, blows up in Bilbao.

2001

Eta announces that visitors to Spain are "legitimate targets".

2002

Bomb blasts hit several tourist resorts as an EU summit is held in Seville and a court suspends Batasuna for three years because of its suspected links with Eta

2003

An indefinite ban is imposed on Batasuna party and both the EU and US declare it a terrorist group. Twin bombs hit Benidorm and Alicante; there are further blasts in towns in northern Spain.
Suspected Eta leaders are arrested in a series of police raids in November and December. The suspected logistics chief, Ibon Fernandez Iradi, is captured in the French town of Mont-de-Marsan.

2004

In a move much denounced by Spanish politicians Eta declares a ceasefire in eastern Catalonia. The Catalan region's Socialist president, Pasqual Maragall, said it was "perverse to use death to divide the peoples of Spain". '


Governments aren't thrown out of office willy nilly because some disgruntled group of sociopaths set off bombs, or assassinate Prime Ministers, cabinet minsters or chiefs of police.

I suggest that you consider the Spanish people might have the same degree of intelligence as any other human beings and might act not in reply to a chance event, but with discretion and with their political wits about them.

[Agathon]

Moreover, this whole terrorism problem is not that hard to solve. If the US leans on Israel and forces a settlement (which wouldn't be that hard) the chief gripe of most of the world's Muslims would disappear and Al Quaeda would lose most of the support it has.

AQ feeds of the perceived unfairness of Western countries (esp. the US) with regard to the world's Muslims. Remove that, and you've removed most of the problem.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by joncha


Say y'all never messed around there in the first place. Would we even be dealing with this mess now?

What's your point? It's happened, now we have to deal with it. We can't undo it, so we have to make decisions on how to deal with it best.

[germanos]

Ehrrrmm...

Not so easy, as the US would ALSO have to pay its due's, AND it would have to place peace-keepers under UN command, just like the rest of the world would do.


NO,no, Agathon, it's not THAT easy to do...

[jasev]

Just a thing before I go to bed:

The only armed group to emerge during the Franco years, Eta attempts its first large-scale operation, the derailing of a train carrying civil war veterans travelling to San Sebastian (Donostia in Basque) to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the start of the Spanish civil war.

Oh, no, not at all. There was a lot of armed organizations that time: FRAP, GRAPO and many more. It's just ETA was the most important. When democracy arrived, almost every band left the violence (even the moderate wing of ETA), just ETA and GRAPO remained.

[Niessuh]

This victory is a triumph of tolerance and dialogue opposed to furious revenge and the demagogic use of the terrorism. It is a pride to feel that the people who surround you are much more intelligent of which you thought, and that the reason wins against the control of mass media. Spain returns to Europe. And it is a pleasure that this happens right when the entire world is watching us, this can be a point of flexion to this painful world.

I just feel worried about the economy, but fortunately the spanish people thinks that there are more important things in life than money

[Bereta_Eder]

Originally posted by Niessuh
This victory is a triumph of tolerance and dialogue opposed to furious revenge and the demagogic use of the terrorism. It is a pride to feel that the people who surround you are much more intelligent of which you thought, and that the reason wins against the control of mass media. Spain returns to Europe. And it is a pleasure that this happens right when the entire world is watching us, this can be a point of flexion to this painful world.

I just feel worried about the economy, but fortunately the spanish people thinks that there are more important things in life than money

[The Emperor Fabulous]

PLATO: What I find really interesting is that the conservatives are thrown OUT of power after bombings. In this country, if another bombing takes place, even though they may have hidden information that would have saved lives, the conservatives would win.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by molly bloom


Well I couldn't help thinking that the Spanish people (like the British) have lived with the knowledge and the effects of terrorism for years:

That was some good info. Thanks!


However, it does not address my question to you in the context of how the proximity of the attacks to the election may have caused a reactionary vote nor how that relates to the earlier examples that you sited.

[Ted Striker]

I do actually agree with Sava

It's time for the US to stop coddling Israel

But at the same time the Arabs AND THE EUROCOMS need to stop coddling Palestine

However I don't know how secure I would feel with the UN overseeing Iraq. The UN has absolutley no teeth and the place would turn into chaos overnight.

In any case, the Spanish people have made their decision, they are free to do whatever they want

Though I find it hypocritical of many Eurocoms complaining about US interventionism

[Agathon]

Originally posted by germanos
Ehrrrmm...

Not so easy, as the US would ALSO have to pay its due's, AND it would have to place peace-keepers under UN command, just like the rest of the world would do.


NO,no, Agathon, it's not THAT easy to do...

If you want to solve the problem you have to give something up.

What makes the US so special? If the US wants to exempt itself from the rules that apply to everyone else, then it will pay for doing so. If you treat everyone else with contempt, they are not going to want to help you - it's THAT simple.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous
PLATO: What I find really interesting is that the conservatives are thrown OUT of power after bombings. In this country, if another bombing takes place, even though they may have hidden information that would have saved lives, the conservatives would win.

I do think you are correct. My take from what I have been reading here is that the conservatives may have been perceived as the source of Spain being targeted. This would most likely never be the case in the US. The opinion that the vote was based on the misinformation campaign carries validity. A one week swing in the polls over the conservative position on the Iraq war caused by a terror act does not imo. For that to be the source of the swing would be a purely reactionary and not policy vote.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Ted Striker
I do actually agree with Sava

It's time for the US to stop coddling Israel

But at the same time the Arabs AND THE EUROCOMS need to stop coddling Palestine

However I don't know how secure I would feel with the UN overseeing Iraq. The UN has absolutley no teeth and the place would turn into chaos overnight.

In any case, the Spanish people have made their decision, they are free to do whatever they want

Though I find it hypocritical of many Eurocoms complaining about US interventionism

I SOOO agree with everything posted here. Good post Ted.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Agathon


What makes the US so special?

Ability, logistics, money.

Next question.

[molly bloom]

Originally posted by jasev
Just a thing before I go to bed:



Oh, no, not at all. There was a lot of armed organizations that time: FRAP, GRAPO and many more. It's just ETA was the most important. When democracy arrived, almost every band left the violence (even the moderate wing of ETA), just ETA and GRAPO remained.

GRAPO was founded in 1975, not long after Franco died, if I recall. Can't remember who FRAP were though.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Ted Striker

However I don't know how secure I would feel with the UN overseeing Iraq. The UN has absolutley no teeth and the place would turn into chaos overnight.

It would have plenty of teeth in this case. The UN is only as strong as its member states.

The Europeans, for their own reasons, want to engender multilateralism. That means making the UN look good.

It's in the interest of the US to spread the load, it is not in their interest just to walk away. The US itself is in the position to put a large number of "teeth" behind the UN.

But as long as the necon fantasy that the US can actually run the world unilaterally holds sway in Washington this won't happen. And it's a pity, since it reduces American influence in the world and does not play to the country's strength.

I don't admire Bush senior that much, but in my view he showed himself to be a master politician with respect to the first Gulf war. He managed to get his own way and get almost everyone on side - AND it cost him almost nothing, since others paid for the war.

Wake up and smell the coffee. If you really want to stop terrorism, you don't use that as an excuse to settle old scores and accrue power to yourself. The Iraq thing was a mistake and will haunt international politics for years to come.

It boils down to:

1. The US gains little but grief for its one sided stance with regard to Israel and Palestine.

2. The US gains little but grief by being excessively unilateralist.

3. The US gains little but grief for its two faced attitude towards Arab tyranny.

4. Certain groups in the US gain much from the above, but they are clearly not the majority.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by PLATO


Ability, logistics, money.

Next question.

OK - then the answer to that is "you're on your own and don't come crying to us when it doesn't work."

The fact is that you don't have the domestic political will or the military might to run the world. Your voters care about domestic issues first and foremost and would quickly vote out a government that tried to spend the money required to make this fantasy come true.

In short, as Niall Ferguson recently argued, you suck at being Imperial. You don't have the learning or the will to do it. So why pretend?

[Winston]

This seems like a big mistake by the Spanish voters, attempting to appease a terrorist organization in the hopes of avoiding further attacks.

"I've got it, if we vote for a change in government to one that won't take a hardline approach toward international terrorism, and then hide under some coats and keep REAL quiet, maybe this will all go away. Then, hopefully the next time they blow people up, it'll be somebody other than us."

I'm sorry to say, but I'm afraid that presented with a similar event, many of my own countrymen would think along those same lines. Most Europeans just have no spine when dealing with the harsh realities of the World we live in. They'll act like headless chickens when things heat up.

It's so sad.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Agathon


It would have plenty of teeth in this case. The UN is only as strong as its member states.

The Europeans, for their own reasons, want to engender multilateralism. That means making the UN look good.

It's in the interest of the US to spread the load, it is not in their interest just to walk away. The US itself is in the position to put a large number of "teeth" behind the UN.

But as long as the necon fantasy that the US can actually run the world unilaterally holds sway in Washington this won't happen. And it's a pity, since it reduces American influence in the world and does not play to the country's strength.

I don't admire Bush senior that much, but in my view he showed himself to be a master politician with respect to the first Gulf war. He managed to get his own way and get almost everyone on side - AND it cost him almost nothing, since others paid for the war.

Wake up and smell the coffee. If you really want to stop terrorism, you don't use that as an excuse to settle old scores and accrue power to yourself. The Iraq thing was a mistake and will haunt international politics for years to come.

It boils down to:

1. The US gains little but grief for its one sided stance with regard to Israel and Palestine.

2. The US gains little but grief by being excessively unilateralist.

3. The US gains little but grief for its two faced attitude towards Arab tyranny.

4. Certain groups in the US gain much from the above, but they are clearly not the majority.

While you make some good points, and I'd like to see the UN succeed just as much as anybody, they have an absolutley horrible track record.

The last "successful" UN campaign that took place was in Korea.

And here, over 50 years later, the issue is still unresolved.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Ted Striker


While you make some good points, and I'd like to see the UN succeed just as much as anybody, they have an absolutley horrible track record.

The last "successful" UN campaign that took place was in Korea.

If MacArthur hadn't been so gung ho, that would have been solved. The near success was entirely due to strong backing from the US.

And here, over 50 years later, the issue is still unresolved.

But now there is no Cold War. The world is a lot different than it used to be. For example, China would much rather trade with the US than fight it.

[Niessuh]

Originally posted by Winston
This seems like a big mistake by the Spanish voters, attempting to appease a terrorist organization in the hopes of avoiding further attacks.

"I've got it, if we vote for a change in government to one that won't take a hardline approach toward international terrorism, and then hide under some coats and keep REAL quiet, maybe this will all go away. Then, hopefully the next time they blow people up, it'll be somebody other than us."

I'm sorry to say, but I'm afraid that presented with a similar event, many of my own countrymen would think along those same lines. Most Europeans just have no spine when dealing with the harsh realities of the World we live in. They'll act like headless chickens when things heat up.

It's so sad.

Spain has been fighting in first line against the terrorism for forty years. This is a punishment to a government who has tried to obtain benefit from that.

Blind aggression is the greatest proof of fear and lack of understanding.

[Agathon]

Good post Niessuh.

[molly bloom]

So far the notion that Spain's electorate ushered in the Socialist Party because of, or mainly due to the terrorist attack, is just supposition.

One might as well look at the sale of white goods and and say- 'clearly, increasing numbers of purchased washing machines cause a rise in the breast cancer rate'.

Those in favour of the 'rewarding terrorism' argument have yet to show any correlation- wishful thinking isn't enough.

And please- let's not anyone attribute it to the mercurial 'Latin' temperament.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by molly bloom
So far the notion that Spain's electorate ushered in the Socialist Party because of, or mainly due to the terrorist attack, is just supposition.

This is the point I was hoping to see debated here. Was the election the result of the terror attacks or would these results have been obtained in any event. If they are the result of the terror attacks then surely this is a dangerous precedent.

[PLATO]

Originally posted by Agathon


OK - then the answer to that is "you're on your own and don't come crying to us when it doesn't work."

The fact is that you don't have the domestic political will or the military might to run the world. Your voters care about domestic issues first and foremost and would quickly vote out a government that tried to spend the money required to make this fantasy come true.

In short, as Niall Ferguson recently argued, you suck at being Imperial. You don't have the learning or the will to do it. So why pretend?

I agree with a lot of what you say. However, I don't believe that the UN has even the level of will that the Us has. Time after time, they have shown that they are willing to go through the motions without achieving hard results.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by jasev


¿Could we argue that the victory of the republicans in the congress elections (2002?) was a result of 9/11?

you could, but the democrats were just lamers for 2002, they had no message what so ever. Besides, Republicans held control of the congress and senate in 2000(before the Jeffords switch), so no real power changed hands. now if the elections for house and senate had occured right after 9/11 and there was a 2/3rds super majority in both houses rather then the barest hint of a majority then there would be a case.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by PLATO


I agree with a lot of what you say. However, I don't believe that the UN has even the level of will that the Us has. Time after time, they have shown that they are willing to go through the motions without achieving hard results.

They do right now and that's what matters. Now is a chance to prove that it works and get everyone on side. More importantly it would be a way for countries like Canada to be able to support the US with the full support of their population.

[Thorgal]

This is the point I was hoping to see debated here. Was the election the result of the terror attacks or would these results have been obtained in any event. If they are the result of the terror attacks then surely this is a dangerous precedent.

There has not been a significant change in the intention of vote. The Popular Party has obtained approximately the same number of votes that in the year 2000. It is only that the Spanish Socialist Party has obtained many more votes due to a higher participation in these elections.
This extra electorate is mostly left people disillusioned with the Spanish Socialist Party that does not use to vote normally, but that due to the prepotence and lies of the Popular Party, have encouraged themselves to vote.