The Power of Multi-stage Deals

[nbarclay]

As most of us know, having more luxuries makes additional luxuries worth more. What is less obvious, however, is that the AI is not programmed to factor that difference in when multiple luxuries are traded in a single deal.

Imagine if an AI has five luxuries and you want to sell it three more. The next luxury it obtains will produce three happy faces, so if you try to sell the luxuries all at once, it will value all three as if they would each produce three happy faces. But if you make each deal separately, you get a 3-happy-face value for the first luxury and a higher, 4-happy-face value for the other two. (Conversely, if you're buying, you want to obtain all three luxuries in a single deal so you pay the lower price for all of them.)

That's the simple case, but it can also be possible to split up more complex deals in order to get full price for all your luxuries. For example, in the current Apolyton University game, I wanted to make a deal with France to continue getting my eighth luxury from them. After looking at possible deals, the only prctical way I could get that luxury was to trade all three of the luxuries I had that France wanted. In a straight-up deal, France was willing to give me a small amount of gold per turn, but not as much as they could afford.

So instead of handling the matter in a single transaction, I handled it in three steps. First, I traded one of my luxuries plus gold per turn and a little gold up front for France's luxury. Then, not knowing for sure exactly how many luxuries France already had, I made two separate deals selling France my two luxuries for gold per turn and a little up-front gold. In each deal, I spent some time figuring out what the best deal France could possibly be persuaded to accept was because I wanted to squeeze as much as I could out of them. (I tend ot be a bit nasty to AIs in that regard.) The end result was that I got a few more gold per turn out of France than I could have otherwise - all they could afford, as it turned out.

Note that giving a civ gold per turn and expecting to get it back in a later deal in your same turn only works if the civ already has spare gold per turn when you start setting up the transaction. Otherwise, the AI most likely won't be willing to give the gold per turn back. But I'm almost positive that the same trick could work using cash up front if you have enough.

I've also used multi-stage where I give an AI gold or gold per turn and then get it back in another deal the same turn in other contexts. For example, sometimes you have a good tech lead but there are not enough techs that you can trade at any one time to get what you want because of prerequisite requirements. Making up the difference with gold or gold per turn and then getting the gold back selling the later tech can provide a way out of that situation. But again, remember that if the AI isn't already willing to provide gold per turn in a deal, it most likly won't be williing to give back gold per turn you give it no matter how much what you offer in the later deal is worth. More complex multi-stage deals are also possible, for example, if a player is two techs ahead on one branch of the tech tree and has reason (for example, a wonder notification pop-up) to believe that an AI is two techs ahead on another branch.

By the way, I hope everyone knows that when you ask an AI what it will give you for something, it rarely offers the most it would be willing to pay. I've even had occasions when all an AI would offer me for a tech was a world map and maybe a handful of loose change but the AI would be willing to give me a tech for the tech if I proposed the deal. A fair amount of trial and error is needed to determine what the most an AI is really willing to pay is. (I hope in Civ 4, they change things so players don't have to engage in that bit of rather tedious micromanagement in order to get the best deal they can.)

Nathan

[ducki]

By the way, I hope everyone knows that when you ask an AI what it will give you for something, it rarely offers the most it would be willing to pay.

I'm sure it's common knowledge, but just in case it's not...
The flipside of this is also true - they ask a lot more than they will accept in a "what would you need" query. They try to fleece you coming and going.

I hope in Civ 4, they change things so players don't have to engage in that bit of rather tedious micromanagement in order to get the best deal they can.

Another bit of tediousness I could do without would be to not have to click "Lump Sum" and "Per Turn" twice for each attempt to see what the AI will accept/give - having to play highball-lowball is painful enough as you mentioned, but at the very least, let me modify the value in the offer window, don't make me offer/ask, be turned down, remove gold from the table, click, type a new offer, repeat. If the interface was better, the haggling wouldn't be so much of a pain, IMO.

[Tall Stranger]

Interesting analysis, Nathan. I think somewhere at the back of my head I suspected that the AI acted this way, but it's nice to hear it confirmed.

A couple follow-up questions:

1. You said that the AI won't factor in the gpt you pay it in the first trade into the total amount of gpt it will offer. I want to make sure I understand what you're saying. Suppose the AI is making 50 gpt before your first trade, and that in the first trade you provide 20 gpt for a lux. Are you saying (as I assume) that the most the AI will ever offer in a trade is 50 gpt?

2. If so, did you check to see if leaving the diplomatic screen (and then recontacting the AI) changes the amount it will offer? Essentially, I'm wondering if the game recalculates the AI's gpt income upon exiting the F4 screen. In other words, upon exiting F4, does the AI make subsequent deals as though it has 70 gpt income, rather than 50? If so, you may be able to get all "your" gold back.

[Hermann the Lombard]

Originally posted by ducki The flipside of this is also true - they ask a lot more than they will accept in a "what would you need" query. They try to fleece you coming and going.

Far be it from human negotiators to do the same thing... One I found aggravating last night (in late game AU501) was when Smoke-Jaguar offered 8gpt for a luxury, and my first thought was to milk him for a bit more, and my second thought was "the heck with it, I'm tired, just take the offer." Dear old S-J irately rejected his own offer.

Originally posted by ducki Another bit of tediousness I could do without would be to not have to click "Lump Sum" and "Per Turn" twice for each attempt to see what the AI will accept/give - having to play highball-lowball is painful enough as you mentioned, but at the very least, let me modify the value in the offer window, don't make me offer/ask, be turned down, remove gold from the table, click, type a new offer, repeat. If the interface was better, the haggling wouldn't be so much of a pain, IMO.

ABSOLUTELY!!!

See GalCiv for a much better way to do it. You have a slider for cash to offer as well as a box for typing the offer. When you're below the acceptance threshold, the text is yellow, when the text turns green the offer is acceptable.

[anarchie]

Right-click on the gold that is on the table to change the value.

[ducki]

OMG that is brilliant!
(Manuals? We don't need no steenkeen' manuals!)

Thank you sooooo much anarchie! (how many turns? )

[Fosse]

Great post, Nathan.

It's true we all should have known this, but I for one never considered breaking up luxury trades in a single turn.

I'm not always a big fan of fleecing the AI, since I hate when they poop out on me, but you can bet that I'll be extorting like crazy when I'm behind in the game.

[Aqualung71]

Originally posted by nbarclay
Note that giving a civ gold per turn and expecting to get it back in a later deal in your same turn only works if the civ already has spare gold per turn when you start setting up the transaction. Otherwise, the AI most likely won't be willing to give the gold per turn back.

Yep. I did a deal like that last night in the AU game with Byzantium. I sold her Monotheism for Feudalism and gave her about 24gpt. I could then sell her Theology (on the same turn, but after the first deal was concluded) for Republic, and she gave me back something like 13gpt. It was clear she started with a gpt deficit, because I got the "they would never accept that deal" for anything above 13, meaning they didn't have enough income at their current research settings (as opposed to it being too expensive).

[Arrian]

I did a deal last night in a game I've been playing on-and-off, a turn here and a turn there, which makes me wonder...

I sold Democracy to 2 civs. Germany and the Dutch. The Dutch had 2 luxuries to give me, and a little gold. The Germans, OTOH, offered up 175gpt!

This is smallish AI civ on a standard map/8civs/monarch game, that has *just* reached the industrial age. 175gpt is an absurd sum. Not one of the other AIs (France, Sumer, India, Russia) could offer up a single gpt.

Clearly, Germany sold a tech around and was sucking up a lot of gpt from other civs. Hence their ability to pay me so much. I only took 160gpt, though, because I don't actually want to fight Germany, and I hope that leaving them 15gpt of "play" will prevent them from declaring war due to bankruptcy.

And then I realized... I sold them a government tech. They (and the Dutch) went into anarchy the moment I sold them Demo (on my turn, the fookers).

Unless the Germans were really pulling in 160gpt from other civs, there is a problem. I also took all of their spare cash, so they have zero in the kitty.

I saved the game and quit. Think when I load it back up, I'll get a declaration of war next turn?

-Arrian

[Aqualung71]

Originally posted by Arrian
Think when I load it back up, I'll get a declaration of war next turn?

-Arrian

Well, I'd say it's a pretty good assumption, but given that the AI isn't very bright, who can tell?

On your point about leaving them 15gpt spare, perhaps you can clarify something for me. I often give the AI gold (or gpt if I don't trust them) to improve their attitude of me. For some reason I've always had the impression that selling them techs cheaply doesn't improve their attitude towards you (I think I read that somewhere once and my tests have supported it so far), so I make a habit of extracting full price, and then gifting them some back. Any thoughts?

[Arrian]

My thoughts: you're smarter than I am.

I should have taken the full 175gpt, and gifted back 15gpt. That would have positively impacted their attitude towards me, at least.

The main goal was to prevent a DoW due to bankruptcy, of course, but improving their attitude would be a nice extra.

I haven't touched the game since, so I still don't know what will happen (was playing a game my gf and I started as the Byzantines, in which we've had ABSURD luck with SGLs. 3 of them, and we're only in the middle ages. Free Sun Tzu, Sistine, and Bach. ).

-Arrian

[vmxa1]

I am not sure about selling them tech cheap, but accepting their first offer was said to be a method of getting better attitudes.

I like the idea of taking all you can and then gifting them back something. This is similar to seeing they have only a small amount of money and so you give them a gift of gold. Then you make the trade. You now get your gift back, but the AI is very much more inclined to be happier with you.

[Aqualung71]

I'm going out on a limb here, because it was quite some time ago and I can't remember exactly where I read it, but......I have a feeling the maximum you can gift the AI in any turn to improve attitude is 50g (not sure how that translates to gpt, if at all).

I know there's a thread on this somewhere because that's where I got the original information (also about selling techs cheap not helping their attitude towards you).

[vmxa1]

Never heard about a max amount, but I know there is a min value of 10g to get any appreciation.

[vulture]

The maximum to improve attitude is 100 gold. Each 10 gold gives you +1 attitude, to a maximum of +10. It declines at the rate of 1 per turn. If you give more than 100, you get several turns at +10. E.g. if you give 200 gold, rather than starting at +20, and working down to +1 20 turns later, you start at +10, stay there for 10 turns, and then go down 1 per turn until it's all gone.

For gpt gifts, the full amount is credited to you immediately: 5 gpt for 20 turns gives you a bonus equivalent to a cash gift of 100 gold (which means that it runs out in 10 turns, while you are still paying for another 10 after that). Giving small amounts like 1 gpt don't do much for you (20 gold equivalent: +2 attitude this turn, +1 following turn, back to normal after that). OTOH something like 15 gpt (== 300 gold up front) gives you 20 turns at +10, and then the last 10 after that, so the benefit can last considerably longer than the period you pay the cash for.

[vmxa1]

That is interesting, I had not heard that before.

[Aqualung71]

Thanks Vulture, very handy to know. Is there a comprehenvisve thread on this somewhere? ie, how many attitude points are required for each level and what the negative attitude contributors are?

[anarchie]

It's something like -100 to -11 = furious, -10 to -1 = annoyed, 0 = cautious, 1 to 10 = polite, 11 to 100 = gracious.

[badams52]

Originally posted by Thriller
Thanks Vulture, very handy to know. Is there a comprehenvisve thread on this somewhere? ie, how many attitude points are required for each level and what the negative attitude contributors are?

For some reason, we've always linked to that other site's article on AI attitude:

http://www.civfanatics.com/civ3acad_ai_attitude.shtml

Bamspeedy did a wonderful job on it. We have a previous thread here devoted to Bamspeedy's work, but it's burried by now.