Infogrames stock plummets 27% today...

DanS · September 21, 2001, 16:00

http://investor.stockpoint.com/quote...e=&Symbol=IFGM

Does anybody have any idea of the reason? Obviously, this is a HUGE deal and underscores how tough this business can be.

Obviously, Civ3 will represent a good portion of Q3 and Q4 revenues. Anybody have information on the status of the game, before we start speculating?

Dida · September 21, 2001, 16:09

Dow and the NASDAQ are both down close to 14% this week, all those Blue chips are losing big time. Infogames is only a little tiny thing that goes with the flow.

Skanky Burns · September 21, 2001, 16:13

Seems like a good time to invest in them then. Assuming they survive until Civ 3 is released, they should be raking it in then. But then again, im not an accountant or anything...

Darkknight · September 21, 2001, 16:18

Yeah I think a lot of people are selling all their Western technology shares and buying up oil and weopon shares.
Petrol just went up 4p today! 1p yesterday!

That's unleaded, diesel you'd expect to go up more but it isn't?
If you buy a load of infogames shares now then you should get a load when civ3 and MOO3 release. MOO3 is infogames isn't it.
though Europa Universalis 2 is being released at the same time and is supposed to sell a lot more then civ3!
EU sold so little cause it was online to download the day it was released

No Cd needed

though I can't find a site that has it after NewYork and now with Nimda

DanS · September 21, 2001, 16:46

The markets were down 14% the last week, but Infogrames was down about 50% overall. 66% decline in September alone. That's smoke! So what's the fire?

GT interactive isn't doing as well as they thought--is this going to tank the whole company? Sure hope Firaxis has a good contract...

Slax · September 21, 2001, 17:18

Oops. Thought there was an announcement about MP...

faded glory · September 21, 2001, 17:41

Guys Stocks are big trouble for the company. The Stocks are like merit badges, the higher the price, the higher the capital.

This is not good news for any of you wondering. If it goes down another, oh say, 50-70% of its current value. You can kiss Civ3 goodbye for some time...

Yes Infrogames is a spec on a elephants ass. And has no choice but to go with the elephant. If the trend continues, it will scare investors away further.

But I think the market will recover. A few weeks the stocks will have bounced back...the money will be flowing again. I doubt Infogames will lose as much value as I said. But hey, if the downturn persists, nobody knows.

isaac brock · September 21, 2001, 17:58

oh, you're right... we can kiss civ3 goodbye. Because it makes sense for them not to release a game that they expect to sell tons of copies of.

I think if they're losing money they'd want to release civ 3 faster, not slower. Don't make everyone so upset over your childish and irrational opinions.

Dida · September 21, 2001, 18:00

Civ3 is so close to completion it's suicide for Infogames not to release it.

dennis580 · September 21, 2001, 18:06

I hope this won't jepordise the Civ3 expansion pack.

DanS · September 21, 2001, 18:11

"Don't make everyone so upset over your childish and irrational opinions."

Isaac: ease up, cowboy. Take that crap elsewhere, please.

FG is right in that a drop this precipitous (66% in less than a month!) can have a very real impact on Infogrames' ability to find additional cash and to do business with its retailers, distributors, and publishers. And that can have a very real impact on its ability to publish games--otherwise the stock wouldn't have dropped so precipitously.

Wittlich · September 21, 2001, 18:17

Hmm, some food for thought...Thanks for the update DanS.

isaac brock · September 21, 2001, 18:22

I'm sorry. where would you like me to take my crap?

Yes, it could affect infogrames' ability to publish games. I believe it will mostly set back the games that aren't as important to their livelihood. Whether my comments are crap or not, I don't think there's any reason to aggravate people with wild speculation based on flimsy evidence.

DanS · September 21, 2001, 18:22

Wittlich: I'm looking for information. A 27% drop in one day has some news attached to it.

Isaac: people will come to their own conclusions. Let them. Thanks.

PGM · September 21, 2001, 18:25

IMO Infogrames' market value variation will not interfere with Civ3. This project is 99% ready and a simple delay on the release would prove disastrous to this year's sheet balance and thus reflect even more in the stock value. However, future projects, if the course of events remains unchanged (not likely), might be affected.

isaac brock · September 21, 2001, 18:28

Pay close attention to PGM, sons. He speaks the truth passed down to him by the grace of a loving, benevolent god.

DanS · September 21, 2001, 19:03

"This project is 99% ready and a simple delay on the release would prove disastrous to this year's sheet balance and thus reflect even more in the stock value."

PGM: so true. Considering this is the case, there are few other places to look for bad news of such magnitude. Civ3 may represent some 20% of Infogrames' revenue for the next couple of quarters, and upwards of a quarter of their publishing revenue. (I'm talking here about the US subsidiary, which is publishing Civ3 and which has the ticker posted above).

Urban Ranger · September 21, 2001, 20:05

Hm, what about SidGolf?

TCO · September 21, 2001, 20:17

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
The markets were down 14% the last week, but Infogrames was down about 50% overall. 66% decline in September alone. That's smoke! So what's the fire?

GT interactive isn't doing as well as they thought--is this going to tank the whole company? Sure hope Firaxis has a good contract...

DanS,

1. I expect the sftware stocsk to get hit harder than the market as a whole.

2. It could just be one of those days today for Infogrames.

3. If there is a specific cause for the drop...do you know if they are covered by any analysts? Market cap is quite small...

TCO · September 21, 2001, 20:19

Quote:

Originally posted by isaac brock
oh, you're right... we can kiss civ3 goodbye. Because it makes sense for them not to release a game that they expect to sell tons of copies of.

I think if they're losing money they'd want to release civ 3 faster, not slower. Don't make everyone so upset over your childish and irrational opinions.

And we did see a speedup wrt to Civ3 and some more financial oriented (vice "art" decisions) wrt MP.

DanS · September 21, 2001, 20:20

I thought SidGolf was being published by EA.

GP: re the vice art, thinking about the revenue model of the Ultima Online series makes me want to lock up my wallet and lose the key wrt Civ3 mp...

As to the market cap, the Wilshire 5000 didn't experience any particular crunch. But true--any number of things could have happened. Just look at Disney yesterday...

TCO · September 21, 2001, 20:41

Just think if Markos got paid a couple bucks an hour per person on-line here. At 100 persons/hour (average) that works out to $200/hr. Assume 80% collection cause of down-time, non-paying helpers, and slop. That's 160/hr. Times 8760 hours. That's 1.4 million/year!! Even at a dollar an hour, that's .7 mil/year!! I think they could do away with the ads then. Pay for better server hosting. Include the software costs, et. al. And spend more time, fixing stuff on the site.

TCO · September 21, 2001, 20:42

They are doing MOO3, no?

Moral Hazard · September 21, 2001, 20:44

IFGM is a loser. Two things they're software as GP pointed out and they haven't turned a profit in the last two years, but their stock price stayed pretty much level through out until recently. They're also primarily PC (72%) instead of consule which hurts. Basically they needed a good beating. 2.61 may be a bit low but 11 was way to high.

Eidos is also getting beaten for similar reasons. In fact the two's price patterns are very similar.

I often invest in game companies so I did research on them a while back.

DanS · September 21, 2001, 20:44

And I would have to sell my left nut for medical research! Just say no to the alternative revenue model!

faded glory · September 21, 2001, 20:47

Quote:

Originally posted by isaac brock
oh, you're right... we can kiss civ3 goodbye. Because it makes sense for them not to release a game that they expect to sell tons of copies of.

I think if they're losing money they'd want to release civ 3 faster, not slower. Don't make everyone so upset over your childish and irrational opinions.

And just how are you going to ship out millions of copies when you have no capital

Pull it out of yer arse?

You think distrubors are retailers are going to say "We will take it for free, just promise us it sells good!"

Hah

I know what im talking about mr.Brock. You dont!

TCO · September 21, 2001, 20:50

Oh, come on!! Software costs very little to produce and duplicate. The costs are in the development. They will ship a selling game. At that point it's got a huge contribution to earnings. And even if they were in extremis, they would just sell the license to smoebudy else.

TCO · September 21, 2001, 20:52

Anybody interested in my Apolyton revenue model?

Moral Hazard · September 21, 2001, 20:56

Quote:

The costs are in the development

They're actually in marketing if the financial statements are to be believed. Civ3 will be fine, but what about Civ3MP.

DanS · September 21, 2001, 20:56

GP: are you baked?!

It would just be a license for MarkG and DanQ to sit around on their asses all day watching TV and waiting for the checks roll in.

Then you would never get branching threads!