It doesn't affect combat chances for as far as i have noticed.
Be sure not to attack across rivers, and before attacking check that the city is not build on a hill.
For building cities yourself goes the same. try to build them at riversides and on hills if possible without giving up on resources.
I just find the random chances to be a little weird. You can indeed win/lose battles that are almost impossible to happen, but it can happen both in your advantage and disadvantage. Since i don't like luck in games, i don't like this randomness.
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