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Actualy from every game ive seen programing AIs have only had a limmited success in trying to adapt to and predict real player behavior over the long haul. Basicaly if the AI gets Overall peacefull behavior and Tec-resorce-siecne-cultural traeties with you, it realy does not expect you to break them untill you (abruptly) Do. the best it can do is a kind of half assed Expect the best/prepare for the worst mode when dealing with players who have been "kind" to it, and adopt a "Expect the worst, prepare for the worst" when you have not.
For example during Development they(the designers) may think that (say) Teck Culture3 is a fairly mild teck, and code the AI to automaticaly jump at any higher level Teck that may be offered in for it by any semi-freindly player/ai entity that it is not currenly resurching.
But long term gamers may know that going for (say)Happyness3a is a waist of R&D resorces when its availble(during the third era) becuase the level of troops needed to keep your cities safe from invasion also keeps the citizens in line, but is Criticaly necisary for a Govement4d (forth era governent subtype)to keep the folks back home happy while you go off on a war of domination, and is part of your plan to turn a bunch of their city-states into your private Libenstom(after all you may have given them War4c(Dreadnaught era Battleships, for it(ie the single most expesive 4th era tec unit-item to build and maintain ), but buy the time the AI can actualy can Finish building even ONE Dreadnaought, you will have overrun most of the ports capable of building one, and have blocaded the rest. if you have been behaving in a Nutral-freindly manor to it, it will not even suspect untill its too late that you are about to take it out.
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