May 7, 2002, 20:13
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#31
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King
Local Time: 19:11
Local Date: October 31, 2010
Join Date: Jul 1999
Posts: 1,262
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Oh, and what's this about wanting to test something out on the zone? Are you full of **** or what?
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May 7, 2002, 21:34
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#32
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King
Local Time: 00:11
Local Date: November 1, 2010
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 1,721
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Quote:
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Originally posted by rah
In three attacks, anything is possible, I've seen weirder many times. Still isn't strong enough. Without the prior saves, there's not much to be proved. And I assumed by now someone else would have reported building a non-vet after LH, but I guess it hasn't been long enough. Maybe you should post it in the strat section to see if any of the SPers have experienced it.
Rich
Heck saturday Epik sent vet crusaders against my vet phal fortified on river forest. He attacked two or three times and lost everytime. The next turn I sent my vet crusaders against his vet phal fortified on river forest. Killed three of them and then the subsequent elephants without losing an attacker. Go figure. S**T happens. Not enough attacks for probability to even out.
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haha... well trust me i know math, and if its truely random, then the chance of 3 vet ships winning in a row is 1/1000
__________________
Join the army, travel to foreign countries, meet exotic people -
and kill them!
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May 7, 2002, 21:37
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#33
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Just another peon
Local Time: 19:11
Local Date: October 31, 2010
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: who killed Poly
Posts: 22,919
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Quote:
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Originally posted by markusf
haha... well trust me i know math, and if its truely random, then the chance of 3 vet ships winning in a row is 1/1000
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Is that "New Math"? 
RAH
I did just try to download that zip file and it said not found.
__________________
The OT at APOLYTON is like watching the Special Olympics. Certain people try so hard to debate despite their handicaps.
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May 7, 2002, 21:52
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#34
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King
Local Time: 00:11
Local Date: November 1, 2010
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 1,721
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downloads fine, its a zip file.
__________________
Join the army, travel to foreign countries, meet exotic people -
and kill them!
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May 7, 2002, 22:05
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#35
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Just another peon
Local Time: 19:11
Local Date: October 31, 2010
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: who killed Poly
Posts: 22,919
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Must be my netscape settings, I'll try it from work
__________________
The OT at APOLYTON is like watching the Special Olympics. Certain people try so hard to debate despite their handicaps.
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May 8, 2002, 08:48
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#36
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Just another peon
Local Time: 19:11
Local Date: October 31, 2010
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: who killed Poly
Posts: 22,919
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Yep, it must have been the settings, I tried it from work using ie and had no problem. I'll bring it home and check it latter.
RAH
__________________
The OT at APOLYTON is like watching the Special Olympics. Certain people try so hard to debate despite their handicaps.
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May 9, 2002, 11:36
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#37
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Prince
Local Time: 01:11
Local Date: November 1, 2010
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: of the Sarzaneers
Posts: 429
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Quote:
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Originally posted by markusf
haha... well trust me i know math, and if its truely random, then the chance of 3 vet ships winning in a row is 1/1000
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Markus, I tried to make some calculations (attacker 1.5 defender 1) and I've got these results:
Vet wins (on 4 attacks) - % probability
4 - 13%
3 - 34.5%
2 - 34.5%
1 - 15%
0 - 3%
 Did I miss anything? (but I've never had a deep analisys of the combat system)
And the results are conforting... not 1/1000 prob but 3%... I know... but it happens... 
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May 9, 2002, 12:05
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#38
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Just another peon
Local Time: 19:11
Local Date: October 31, 2010
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: who killed Poly
Posts: 22,919
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Hmmm, why did you calculate it on 4 attacks when markus said 3 ships? I must have missed something.
__________________
The OT at APOLYTON is like watching the Special Olympics. Certain people try so hard to debate despite their handicaps.
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May 10, 2002, 04:50
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#39
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Prince
Local Time: 01:11
Local Date: November 1, 2010
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: of the Sarzaneers
Posts: 429
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Quote:
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Originally posted by rah
Hmmm, why did you calculate it on 4 attacks when markus said 3 ships? I must have missed something.
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Quote:
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Did I miss anything? (but I've never had a deep analisys of the combat system)
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...  apparently I did  .
Here are my results on 3 attacks:
Vet win - %
3 - 22%
2 - 43%
1 - 29%
0 - 6%
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May 10, 2002, 12:10
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#40
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King
Local Time: 00:11
Local Date: November 1, 2010
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 1,721
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Messer Niccolò
Markus, I tried to make some calculations (attacker 1.5 defender 1) and I've got these results:
Vet wins (on 4 attacks) - % probability
4 - 13%
3 - 34.5%
2 - 34.5%
1 - 15%
0 - 3%
Did I miss anything? (but I've never had a deep analisys of the combat system)
And the results are conforting... not 1/1000 prob but 3%... I know... but it happens...
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Well i think that 1.5 vs 1 is bs.. Go into cheat mode, create 20 vet ships vs 20 non vets. Your chance of winning is about 2 in 20. Using the combination formula you can then predict what your chances are of winning 2 in a row, followed by 3 in a row. If the chance of winning is truely random. This is the probability of 3 distinct vet ships losing to 3 non vet ships. Imagine having a deck of 10 cards, 3 non vet ships winning a battle, is the same probability as you picking the ace of spades 3 times in a row from the deck
(2) 1/10* 1/10 = 1/100
(3) 1/10 * 1/10 *1/10 = 1/1000
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