Did the Axis have any chance at all in WWII?

[David Floyd]

The answer is no. The Soviet Union was quite capable of finishing off Hitler by itself.

Not necessarily. Germany held over 40% of the Russian population, including much of their breadbasket, by the end of 1941. If they had taken Moscow in Operation Typhoon (which is reasonable if they had a couple more weeks of good weather given that they wiped out about 7/8s of Moscow's defenders in Typhoon), they would have been capable of taking Leningrad, Stalingrad, and the Caucasus in 1942, and pushing further into Russia.

[faded glory]

well, my grandfather was a german soldier. after the war, looking back and studying. he said dunkirk was the biggest mistake. 130,000 troops that went on to africa and DDAY.

[David Floyd]

130,000 troops

Try 330,000. But yes, not destroying the Brits was a mistake, although in historical context Hitler thought that by allowing the British to escape and preserving British honor he could secure peace.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Ned


Yeah, and in retrospect, it is probably one of the few ways Hitler could have won WWII. France and England may have even been on the same side as Hitler in that war given the politics of the time. Hitler would have invaded Russian in 1939! long before Russia would have had time to bring the T34 into production. It would have been a cakewalk.

Later, in exchange for "granting" Poland vast new lands in Russia, the Germans may have gotten back the corridor to Danzig and beyond.

Ned

The T-34 was already invented in 1939 and in 1939 Germany didn't have any Tigers or Panthers. Their tank forces consisted of Pzkwf1 mostly, which was a piece of crap with machine gun as prime weapon. So I don't see how it could be a cakewalk.

[Sava]

The Me-262's came too late because Hitler stalled their production because he wanted them to be fighter bombers. The first Me-262's rolled off the line in 1939. He ordered them to be converted into fighter/bombers. But he also didn't put too much stock in them because of political differences with the lead designer.

The Japanese and Germans were only 2-4 months behind the US in their production of their own atomic bomb. In fact, before the defeat of Germany, the US was far behind. The German scientists that were captured helped propel the Manhattan Project.

Had Germany gotten to Russia 3 weeks earlier, they would have crippled her. The SU didn't begin to gain the upper hand until after Stalingrad. The only reason they were able to push the Germans back was because Stalin had moved the tank producing industries to the East of the Urals. Had Germany taken Moscow, Stalin would have never been able to move the industrial facilities. The SU would have been conquered, Germany would have had the oil fields in the Caucausses, they would have met Japan over Asia, crushed China, and had more than a billion people under their control to be used as slave labor. Then, with the defeat of Russia, Germany could have put more into the Western front. With the Allies beaten back to the Atlantic, England would have fallen, and the US would have become victim to rocket attacks.

A massive naval and aerial arms race would have occurred between the US and Germany on a scale so large, it would be inconceivable. I doubt any sort of truce would have been called. Then, whichever side got nukes, would have won. And without capturing any German scientists, I think Germany would have won.

Needless to say, our world would be a very different place. I thank the millions who died defeating Nazi Germany. Without their sacrifice, I doubt my own relatives would have escaped and come to America to produce me, the greatest creation in the history of the world .

[David Floyd]

The T-34 was already invented in 1939 and in 1939 Germany didn't have any Tigers or Panthers. Their tank forces consisted of Pzkwf1 mostly, which was a piece of crap with machine gun as prime weapon. So I don't see how it could be a cakewalk.

True, but even in real life the T-34 was not used until the battle for Smolensk, the vast majority of Soviet tanks were useless T-26s, and German leadership, junior officers, NCOs, and individual soldiers, not to mention battle tactics were far better than the USSR's.

But a German invasion of Russia in 1939 surely would have failed for obvious reasons, and France and England never would have suported Hitler, given that they entertained ideas of a triple alliance with Russia in the mid-late 30s, although that was eventually discarded due to Russian military ineptitude, prior to June 23, 1941, at which time they made common cause.

[Sava]

Originally posted by David Floyd


True, but even in real life the T-34 was not used until the battle for Smolensk, the vast majority of Soviet tanks were useless T-26s, and German leadership, junior officers, NCOs, and individual soldiers, not to mention battle tactics were far better than the USSR's.

But a German invasion of Russia in 1939 surely would have failed for obvious reasons, and France and England never would have suported Hitler, given that they entertained ideas of a triple alliance with Germany in the mid-late 30s, although that was eventually discarded due to Russian military ineptitude, prior to June 23, 1941, at which time they made common cause.

Wow, David I used to think you were just another ignorant conservative, but apparantly you know your history

I'm not sure I agree with you though. Russia's industry was barely prepared to counter the German offensive. Had Germany not gotten stuck in the winter, the SU would have never been able to mass-produce T34's the way they did. The 1939 invasion would have worked if they got to Moscow fast enough. But you are right about France and England not supporting Hitler.

[David Floyd]

The Japanese and Germans were only 2-4 months behind the US in their production of their own atomic bomb. In fact, before the defeat of Germany, the US was far behind. The German scientists that were captured helped propel the Manhattan Project.

You couldn't be more wrong. Hitler actually did not even emphasize production of an atomic bomb, but rather wanted his "superweapons" such as the V-2 and Type XXI U-Boats, etc.

The US tested it's bomb in July 1945, only 2 months after Germany's surrender, proving that they were 99% finished prior to Germany's surrender. German scientists were better known for rocketry, and were a great help for the space program, NOT the Manhatten Project.

As for Japan, they put around $100,000 into their atomic program, did not have all the necessary materials, and never even attained a chain reaction.

[David Floyd]

The 1939 invasion would have worked if they got to Moscow fast enough

Absolutely. But they couldn't have gotten there.

First, in 1939, Germany only possessed enough supply reserves to fight short wars. Poland drained all of their offensive capability until they rebuilt, and a Russian campaign would have been much bigger. Also, the Pz1 was armed only with machine guns, and frankly would have been mauled by Russian armor in 1939. German tactical superiority would have helped some, but not enough. Germany would have run out of supplies for offensive war far before Moscow, even IF they won every battle.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Dom Pedro II

According to military historian John Keegan, invading three weeks earlier might not have helped either. In fact, Russia has TWO main natural defenses against invasion. One, is the infamous Russian winter, but the OTHER is the Russian spring.

We also have other two: a summer and an autumn.

[Serb]

Originally posted by David Floyd


Absolutely. But they couldn't have gotten there.

First, in 1939, Germany only possessed enough supply reserves to fight short wars. Poland drained all of their offensive capability until they rebuilt, and a Russian campaign would have been much bigger. Also, the Pz1 was armed only with machine guns, and frankly would have been mauled by Russian armor in 1939. German tactical superiority would have helped some, but not enough. Germany would have run out of supplies for offensive war far before Moscow, even IF they won every battle.

Agreed.
Hitler conquered almost entire Europe before he dare to attack the SU. Without industry of concquered Europe he has no chances against SU at all.

[David Floyd]

We also have other two: a summer and an autumn.

Which are easily offset by heavy German superiority in tactics, training, and leadership

[David Floyd]

Hitler conquered almost entire Europe before he dare to attack the SU. Without industry of concquered Europe he has no chances against SU at all.

Actually most of Germany's production came from within Germany, although Frenh factories produced things such as small arms and ammunition - that was insignificant, though. He lost to Russia because of the six week delay when he attacked Yugoslavia, US/British Lend-Lease, and going for Kiev instead of Moscow, in that order.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Jaguar Warrior

You misunderstood what I was asking. I think. I didn't mean "What would happen if the US wasn't in WWII." I meant Could Germany, Japan, and Italy have taken over the world with a bit more luck, or was heir loss inevitable.

I understood exactly what you were asking; I simply chose to answer a different question, since I don't think the Axis could have done it with all the major Allied powers taking part, and I didn't think that the discussion which would ensue from answering your original question would be very interesting...

[Serb]

Originally posted by David Floyd


Which are easily offset by heavy German superiority in tactics, training, and leadership

The armies which are superior in those fields then their enemy usaly don't lost wars to this enemy.

[David Floyd]

The armies which are superior in those fields then their enemy usaly don't lost wars to this enemy.

They do when the US supplies their enemy with the materials it needs to win and when its leader prevents the military from conducting a militarily sound campaign

[KrazyHorse]

The Japanese and Germans were only 2-4 months behind the US in their production of their own atomic bomb. In fact, before the defeat of Germany, the US was far behind. The German scientists that were captured helped propel the Manhattan Project

Yet another mistaken claim that there was some sort of dead heat to develop atomic weapons. The western Allied nations were light-years ahead of everybody else from 1941 onwards. The Germans never even got a reactor going, a crucial step that was achieved by Fermi at the U. of Chicago in 1942.

If the USSR hadn't been able to nick atomic secrets then it would have taken them until the mid-50s to develop one on their own, even with the much greater access to natural resources and lower drain on industry that they enjoyed versus wartime Germany.

[David Floyd]

Thanks for the backup, KH

That's one of the biggest WW2 myths - that Germany was on track for an A-Bomb.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by David Floyd


They do when the US supplies their enemy with the materials it needs to win and when its leader prevents the military from conducting a militarily sound campaign

The US supplied the USSR with ~10% of war materiel used in WWII. Russian production accounted for the bulk of their force.

[Ethelred]

Originally posted by Sava
The Japanese and Germans were only 2-4 months behind the US in their production of their own atomic bomb. In fact, before the defeat of Germany, the US was far behind. The German scientists that were captured helped propel the Manhattan Project.

What fantasy book did you get that from? The US had no captured scientists working on something like that. The only Germans working on the Bomb were Jews that had left Germany. It would be an act of insanity to allow enemies anywhere near the project. Heck they didn't even let Leo Szilard work on the Bomb itself after he finished the Manahattan Project in Chicago. General Groves was afraid he would help the Russians.

Germany had exactly on top notch physicist, Werner Heisenberg, left to work on the bomb. The US had English and American scientists and Jewish scientists from all over Europe. The only scientist that was stolen from Germany was Niels Bohr and he certainly didn't want to work on any German weapons projects.

The Japanese were even farther behind than the Germans.

[Serb]

Even less then 10%.
Different sources has differen figures, the most common 3-5%.

[David Floyd]

KH/Serb,

Lend-Lease war material was insignificant (although at the time of Typhoon the Russians had more US/Brit tanks than Russian ones).

What WAS significant was the logistical aspect of Lend Lease, which the Sovs weren't producing on their own and which was far more important than guns and tanks.

[David Floyd]

Eth, again, thanks for helping put that particular myth to rest

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ethelred
The only scientist that was stolen from Germany was Niels Bohr and he certainly didn't want to work on any German weapons projects

Technically, Niels Bohr was stolen from Denmark, which was enjoying German "protection" at the time...

The Japanese were even farther behind than the Germans.

That's the understatement of the year.

[David Floyd]

That's the understatement of the year.

Yup, considering their total wartime commitment was under $130,000 USD

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by David Floyd
What WAS significant was the logistical aspect of Lend Lease, which the Sovs weren't producing on their own and which was far more important than guns and tanks.

That's partly true. The USSR was producing its own railways, trucks, etc., but had suffered weakness in that sector of their economy since the early 30s.

[David Floyd]

That's partly true. The USSR was producing its own railways, trucks, etc., but had suffered weakness in that sector of their economy since the early 30s.

Yes, and another relevant point is that Russia's transportation system was nearly kaput by 1945, and without Lend Lease in the form of railway cars, etc., it would have been in BIG trouble.

Further, Russian infantry transportation was, to a huge extent, Lend Lease vehicles.

Not to mention "mundane" things such as boots, canned goods, etc.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Rogan Josh


Also, I think Germany didn't expect the UK's behaviour with that melgomaniac Churchill in charge. They offered the UK a fairly fair peace after the fall of France, which Churchill was stupid not to take. Instead Churchill prostituted his country to the US and the UK lost everything.

looks like y'all underestimated how much of a fighter Churchill would be...

[Ethelred]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Eth, again, thanks for helping put that particular myth to rest

The people working on the Bomb were worried about the Germans succeeding. It looks like Groves was playing on those worries.

[David Floyd]

looks like y'all underestimated how much of a fighter Churchill would be...

Yup, huge miscalculation.

The people working on the Bomb were worried about the Germans succeeding. It looks like Groves was playing on those worries.

Abolutely - Groves was definitely the man for the job.