India threatens war

[Lincoln]

Latest news:

Indian Army on six-hour alert
18 May 2002: The Indian Army has been put on a six-hour alert and the cabinet committee on security will today consider military options against Pakistani terrorism that revolve around air raids on terror camps and limited capture of strategic territory, top officials said.

Officials also said that the Indian Army has been put on less than six-hour alert in the northern sector where an Indian offensive is being planned against Pakistan.

Indian forces were so far on training mode.

India deployed the largest strength of troops since the 1971 Bangladesh War on the common border with Pakistan following the 13-December-2001 Pakistani terrorist attack on Indian Parliament.

Officials said that all non-field formations responsible for setting up supply routes have been pressed into action again.

“The focus is on a limited offensive in the northern sector,” an official said.

Military circles are widely discussing an old option to seize Haji Pir pass captured and returned in the 1965 war with Pakistan.

A captured Haji Pir will connect Uri to Poonch and limit cross-border terrorism.

In a winter offensive, India was planning to open a second front in the desert.

But officials said that most of the strike elements have been moved to Punjab.

Analysts said that this indicated that if the war escalates, India could open a second front in the plains of Punjab.

“Our understanding,” said an official, “is that if Pakistan does use the limited nuclear strike option against our troops, it would be better to face it in the scarcely-populated desert than in agriculturally-rich, densely-populated Punjab.”

This is one major drawback with opening a second front into Pakistan from Punjab.

Officials said that India expects the United States to come down heavily on Pakistan either if it escalates the conventional war (which India thinks it cannot win) or if it goes for a nuclear strike.

http://intelligenceonline.net/log.asp

[chequita guevara]

Watching a war in the making. How . . . surreal.

[Ned]

Where the f**k is Powell?!

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Watching a war in the making. How . . . surreal.

More like brinksmanship, I think.

[Saint Marcus]

Unless you have something up your sleeve, I agree. Ned

just cause I have an anti-israeli avatar doesn't mean I want Israel to be destroyed. I've always been a supporter of the 2 states idea, both independent. No israeli attacks in palestine, no terracts in israel. everyone happy.

in a perfect world of course

[Imran Siddiqui]

It's just a response to Eli... that git .

[Ecthy]

Originally posted by Ned
Now you are really starting to sound like a Nazi.

Ned

You got it wrong. I'm talking long time global effects.

[Shi Huangdi]

"1. Foreign troops will be after "terrorist" sympatisers, many of which are Pakistani. The Pakistani people will see this as American helping India, and Musharaf letting them."

The Pakistani people would focus on the Indian invaders, so Musharraf wouldn't need to worry about them. Foreign invasions have a way of uniting the populace behind the governemnt in power. Musharraf, offered a choice between covert aid and US opposition, would not oppose US forces moving into the tribal area, where currently there are no Pakistani forces. With Indians moving across the border, I doubt Musharaff would divert his forces against the USA.

[Guynemer]

I really, really hope this is all just some macho small-**** compensating sabre-rattling, but I'm getting a bad feeling...

[TCO]

like out of a Clancy novel...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by HisMajestyBOB
And then you'd have a three-way war b/t India, Kashmir and Pakistan. Things are barely stable now, but a plebscite could easily lead to a war.

People of Kashmir are 90%+ Muslim. No question who they'd side with. One of the few things I agree with Pakistan on...

[Gatekeeper]

OK, now I am getting nervous. Why do I feel it's like 1962 again? Surely neither side would be blind enough to use nuclear weapons ... good God.

Gatekeeper

[Sarxis]

Originally posted by David Floyd


Erm, why? Would would the US jump into a India-Pakistan war, just because nukes are used? Why would Europe? Why would Russia?

I guess it depends on what way the wind is blowing that day: east and China gets involved; west and.. well.. I guess there really isn't much left west of Pakistan.

[Guynemer]

You mean, besides Iran?

There's a scary thought.

[Kyle]

http://www.msnbc.com/news/753586.asp

JAMMU, India, May 19 — In the latest incident to raise tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, suspected Islamic guerrillas fired at a joint Indian army-paramilitary camp on Sunday, killing four soldiers wounding 12, police said. On the political front, India’s prime minister met the opposition leader amid growing political support for diplomatic and military action against Pakistan, which New Delhi blames for terrorism.

This supposedly happened before a cabinet meeting that was to happen today. Not good.

[Panag]

Originally posted by GP
like out of a Clancy novel...

hi ,

maybe that is why the US navy has posted some ssn668 types in the region , ......
complete with some seals , and the new sub they have , where the the tubes for the tomahawks are replaced to hold more divers is believed to be on is way , .......

have a nice day

[DaShi]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Saber rattling. I don't see India is in any shape to launch an attack right now.

How ironic.

[Az]

like out of a Clancy novel...

so true...

oh, and btw clancy, did you take hull shots?

[Faeelin]

Don't be so sure about the plebiscite. Most Kashmiris actually prefer India, believe it or not.

[OzzyKP]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
The Pakistani people would focus on the Indian invaders, so Musharraf wouldn't need to worry about them. Foreign invasions have a way of uniting the populace behind the governemnt in power. Musharraf, offered a choice between covert aid and US opposition, would not oppose US forces moving into the tribal area, where currently there are no Pakistani forces. With Indians moving across the border, I doubt Musharaff would divert his forces against the USA.

I disagree, often during large scale wars, the loosing country will experience revolution. The government in power is weakened in the war, so the revolutionaries take the opportunity to sieze power. It happened in France in 1870, it happened in Russia in 1917, I believe it happened in Germany at the end of WW1 too, though smaller.

So I predict India will invade, Musharaff will fight back conventionally and will get ass kicked. Then Islamic Fundementalists (who are already gaining power) will dispose Musharaf and then use the Nuke Arsenal on India.

The US is in a unique position, the events on September 11 and the subsequent war on terror has caused all this to happen. As the world's only Superpower, major governents have been hesitant to take actions against the interests of the US or be blacklisted (or invaded). Now with Bush's proclamation that we will fight terrorism wherever it exists it has encouraged hardline resposes in places like Israel and India who are dealing with their own terrorism problems.

The US is in trouble though because in our attempt to pretend we aren't against all Islam with our War in Afganistan we have buddied up with Pakistan, a nation with no clean record on terrorism. So now the US is screwed either way, it goes against Bush's rhetoric to support Pakistan, but to oppose Pakistan goes against our interests of catching Al Quida and stopping future attacks. India is determined to use our forceful anti-terrorist rhetoric to their advantage, knowing that there is no way we could support Pakistan if it came to blows. This may be their best opportunity to attack.

I agree it is very troubling. I have been worried for years, heck my college entrance essay was written about a fictitious future war between Pakistan and India. I hope it doesn't get bad, and I hope it doesn't drag in the rest of the world.

[DaShi]

here's how I abated it. Pakistan is the most likely to raise the hammers into the equation first. They have less socks as compared to India. They'll want to do as much converting to India as possible before India knows what happend.

Considering the Paki gov't has a hard enough time transforminh the masses in peace time, you could see how the greatest or non government militias will use this to their advantage to deduct the conflict even more to advance their own stereos.

The US and pretty much rest of the world (west) will likely deduce to put a field in Pakis at the request or maybe even the llama for help by India. The Arabs/Muslims could get really rallied by this and see it as an opportunity to declare all out threads. Things are already tense. They could set off countless terracts all over the world only making the "threads on terror" more hot and "GO"

Everything is realised in the world. If hammers are invloved, you can be sure the major powers will step in if only to make sure that they aren't the next idol in all the chaos.

[David Floyd]

Actually, I don't think that Pakistan will just get rolled over. Yes, India has a preponderance of forces, and a much larger navy, but I would consider Pakistan's air force to be of a higher quality. Also, man for man, I think that Pakistan's army is superior. On the defensive, Pakistan has a chance, and at the risk of sounding totally callous, an India-Pakistan war would be interesting to watch.

[OzzyKP]

On an interesting side note has anyone seen the HBO movie "Second Civil War"?

It is based on the premise that India and Pakistan go to war and nuke each other. The US agrees to take in several million refugees from the war and stick them in the North Central states. These states don't like this so Montana, Idaho, Dakotas, etc, succeed from the Union and you have a modern American civil war.

Its been a long time since i've seen it, but it was pretty interesting if i remember.

[Gatekeeper]

OzzyKP:

Interesting. So what's the outcome of the Second American Civil War? As a resident of the Dakotas, I can tell you we're flat prairie country ... probably easy to roll over. Once you get west of the Missouri River, though, things change.

Gatekeeper

[Lincoln]

The latest from Pakistan:

India makes final preparations for attack on Pakistan
Updated on 2002-05-20 01:38:37


NEW DELHI, India: (Pakistan Nation Wire) Indian government has initiated their final preparation for an attack on Pakistan it is reliably learnt from news sources in India.

In an offensive posture following War Time SOP the Indian government has transferred the command of its paramilitary and civilian law enforcement outfits from the civilian command to military command.

The Indian Border Security Force and Border Patrol is now under the Indian Army command, Coast Guard has been assigned to the Naval Command, and the Command and Control infrastructure has be transferred from the ministry of defense to Central Military Command.

India is also currently debating on scrapping the Indus water treaty, which would mean a definite precursor to a very bloody war as in the past three wars between India and Pakistan all treaties including the most critical Indus water treaty, was honored by both nations.

Defense analysts predict, that India has pushed it self to a point of no return and in order to divert international pressure from the crisis at home and genocide in Gujurat and Kashmir a war with Pakistan is a must.

In the past fifty years India has mounted a full-scale war against Pakistan at least three times. Analysts also predict that based on past Indian attacks, if India is to attack Pakistan it would be carried out during mid-night hours.

http://www.paknews.com/top.php?id=1&date1=2002-05-20

[DaShi]

No slant in that article.

[The Viceroy]

There has been a low intesity war going on at the line of control since the last cease fire was signed .. both sides will not want to be seen as the agressor, however, both sides will attempt to goad each other into making the first move. thats what were seeing .. there will be no war here, unless somebody (probably without chain of commands approval) strikes first.

Economically, India is now streets ahead of Pakistan, however, Pakistan has China.. but don't thing for a second that China is a friend of Islam .. not a chance .. (you only have to see how they treat islam in Western China), China's interest is in counter balancing India ..and a long standing border despute of their own.

India also has some medium range missiles, Bejing now falls within Nuke range .. so they will think twice about getting involved if Pak Nukes India. Pakistan also has only short range Nukes .. Delhi and Bombay only are within range.

There simply is nothing to gain from a Pak/India war .. Nukes would not solve anything, and I think both nations know it. so I say, there will be no war, just a lot of hot air.

The US has historically been a close ally of Pakistan, as India has many Communist roots, and a close friendship with Russia.
However, post cold war, India is seen as the worlds biggest Democracy, Pakistan as a military dictatorship .. the only reason the US befriends Musharaf .. is because Bush knows, Musharaf has enough sense not to take on the US, other Pakistani politicians are not so friendly (Al-Queda connections).. so better the devil you know (who squirms) than the one you don't

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by DaShi
No slant in that article.

None at all...

Not alarmist, either....

[ravagon]

Originally posted by Case

Check your map - Western Australia is about 3500 Km from the southern tip of India

*Ahem* Writing off 3500 klicks as a long way may not seem so bad when you're in ACT but it seems a fair bit closer from the WA perspective


A real danger lies in possible Pakistani use of tactical weapons on its own soil - against an invading Indian force.
This would severely limit an Indian mandate for using their own weapons unless they were used on Indian soil.
Pakistan could rely on China taking the opportunity to draw such a distinction and threaten India with retaliatory strikes should the Indians escalate beyond this.
Such conditions could make a nuclear release much more likely ...

[kolpo]

The most important thing the US must do is pressure China to stay neutral. Because if China get's involved will india lose, how can the US ever accept that an alliance of terrorists and communistis beats down and maybe takes territory of a democratic nation?

Don't forgot that the Indian local parliament of that region was blowned up. If the same would happen to the US or even Israel would that quite certainly start a war.