Machiavelli Institute : Surprises

[DAVOUT]

We must recognize that the AI is more imaginative than we anticipated.

- The Anglo-Greek war was not even considered ; and we do not know how and by what forces Newcastle was taken ; was it a wandering archer taking opportunity of a not garrisoned city (sort of one shot opportunistic strike) or an army followed by planned reinforcements ? Diplomatic and military implications would be extremely different.
- The Helleno-Aztech war was no more expected.
- We believed that the French would be unable with only 159 golds to bribe another civ against us, and they bribe two! How?
- We though that 33 golds were worth all problems created by a ROP with the Persians; we now see that cleaning our ground will make uselessly complicated the organization of our German and Persian fronts ; the workers that we will possibly earn will first be busy redoing the improvements pillaged.

Although the AI is still dumb, and even if the outcome is positive, the fact that the AI is able to oblige us to review all our plans in a hurry deserves a few minutes of auto criticism, and then we could search ways to envision more creatively the next AI moves.

Of course, this is not intended to be a trial, but a tentative understanding of what we did that we could have done better. For that, your comments and advices are necessary.

[MrWhereItsAt]

Well, Germany was annoyed with us, is geberally warlike and probably was just itching for a chance to take SOMEone on. Persia is a little mystery - they will soon lose more in our slave markets than they should gain (if we are careful). As for the other wars - who can say? We haven't been looking at them much except as distant trading partners. I can only guess that France was on good terms with both Germany and Persia for them to enter a war with so little possible gain (espec. Persia).

I guess we were lucky to get away with so long a peace when surrounded by so many potential enemies, but I don't think much could have been done without either a suspension of the war in France and an attack on another instead, in which case it is likely the other civ and France would have been the ones to be dragged in, or we could have stationed Swordsmen everywhere so we could hold off (but not counterattack sufficiently) whoever DID attack us first. France was the closest enemy, and one of the most dangerous to have sneak attacked us, so I think by taking it to them, we made the best possible choice given our production (in)capability.

[DAVOUT]

May I underline that the point of this thread is not to criticize what we did, but to analyse what we have not anticipated on a foreign relations point of view.

[GhengisFarb™]

I'm not a member of the Mach In but it shouldn't take much for Persia to agree to peace. We capture some slaves, make peace, and get out of that annoying ROP agreement. The Persia situation was nothing but good news!

[MrWhereItsAt]

Originally posted by DAVOUT
May I underline that the point of this thread is not to criticize what we did, but to analyse what we have not anticipated on a foreign relations point of view.

Err, did I do that???? I thought I was just saying "Hey, there's little we could have done otherwise".

It's my job to

1. Make vague promisees (not necessarily keep them)
2. To make excuses for everything
3. Play the game

In that order.

[wervdon]

Honestly, I think the fact that Persia and Germany got bribed into war with us is a good thing. I really suspect that one or both of them would of been declaring war on us within 30-40 turns anyways (they are both backstabbing war-like ai's). There's a good chance that it would of been a sneak attack when they did as well, which would of caught us more unprepared than we are now. At least this way, they jumped in ahead of schedule and don't have massive armies at our border already ready to go.

[DAVOUT]

Unfortunately that does not prevent any further attack, or at least we should not let us believe that NOW.

[Robber Baron]

In retrospect, at least, we could have expected Germany to jump in. Bismark tends to take advantage of third party wars to move against the player civ, in my experience. Really, I'm surprised the Germans didn't move against us sooner. This is very much in character.

And, as things turned out here, actually quite advantagous. Now we get to strike against Persia while she is in the throes of anarchy -- should be short war, with possibly some tribute. At any rate, we can take the opportunity to raize Sidon without (I predict) incurring a long, costly war as a result.

As for the Aztecs and English, again, these are expansionist civs, and they tend to roam around looking for battles. I'm glad we're not involved in this round. Hopefully it will weaken both of these powers.

[Inverse Icarus]

the AIs are now realizing what I said long ago, there is no chance for peaceful expansion on this continent.

they just got their armies and noticed what they can do, thats all.

[Aro]

Originally posted by Robber Baron
In retrospect, at least, we could have expected Germany to jump in. Bismark tends to take advantage of third party wars to move against the player civ, in my experience. Really, I'm surprised the Germans didn't move against us sooner. This is very much in character.

Germans. Argh! Well, Otto did not surprise me, and I agree with Robber Baron, I was expecting they jump over us sooner.
If we can finish the French war soon, Persia will not be a problem at all, they have many settlers in our territory (at least two), what mean slaves. Their military is weak.
People are saying that Germany is unprepared for this war, but I’m not so sure… In my games, they are prepared for war all the time. They have iron. Annoying.
The point is: we can fight in two fronts for a little, but we cannot afford this for a long time. And I’m still worried about our defenses in the east front.

[Togas]

This is a discussion about surprises and mistakes made. So I'll lay out both.

Surprises:
Persia declared war on us. This Institute felt that the RoP would make it more costly for Persia to declare war. There was also the general belief (which I feel was true) that Persia was still in Rex mode because it had sent three settler stacks into our territory and was in the midst of Anarchy as it is becoming a Republic.

Mistakes:
The popular notion that RoPs deter war and can result in profit.

Conclusion:
No one can present proof that the AI even factors in the cost of breaking a RoP into their war equation, and given the very small sum it took to convince a nation in anarchy with an RoP with us AND a Republic to attack (note: Attack occured after we seized money from the conquest of Paris and Orleans, and I wish I knew how much we took, as it might tell us how much it ultimately cost to drag them into war), I think we need to ultimately conclude that RoPs are worthless for promoting peace. With an opportunistic Civ like Persia or Germany, a RoP might even make it LESS likely that peace will occur as it will give them a chance to sneak attack us.

The "RoPs for Profit" idea is just playing Russian Roulette, as it invites other civs to come play in our backyard and, at the least, interfear with our workers, and it rarely produces more money than we ordinarily make in a single turn. That idea must be disguarded as well.

As for the Aztecs declaring war on Greece, they were the only nation that England could afford.

As for why Greece picked England, we can only speculate. We do not have enough information.

As for why Germany didn't get involved in the Greco-Anglican war, who can say. Neither side could afford them ... but France COULD afford them. Perhaps they wanted to go to war with us all along (the Munich situation), but France urged them to go in sooner than they anticipated. As Germany will soon find out, that greedy decision was a grave mistake.

--Togas

[GePap]

I agree generally with Uber: the A.I. has gotten wise to our warlike and expansionist aims. We have been planning some sort of war against everyone around us daily. The A.I. doesn't plan much, but it is not stuid enough to fail to see the danger we pose to everyone.

I think the RoP with Persia was a gain. We got 33 gold, and have significant Persian assets within easy striking range. U and until Persia gets iron, they will remain weak.

I have been clamoring against the Germans for a long time, and I do think they are a threat. I would not be surprised if a dangerous German army shows up in our doorsteps. They could probably outproduce us long term, so using the troops we have now effectively will be key.

I must add that we are forgetting the biggest actor not involved, Rome. They have cities close enough to the action (France and Greece) and are big, have all the needed resources, and are the only civ, along with Greece, to make our military look 'Average'. We have to try to keep Rome out of this war, at least, out of war with us. If Rome goes to war with us and gets a RoP with France, they can threaten Paris and our French gains, hold up armies needed in the east, and we are too far from their heartland to strike at them in any time.

[ManicStarSeed]

I think that one of the reasons this happened relates to our crappy starting position.. lemme 'splain...

One ...we are one of the biggest nations around.(due to conquest)
Two ... proved ourselves to be aggressive.
Three.. we are virtually unable to provide anything of use (resource/lux) to any of the AIs due to our lack of surplus resources. If we were able to woo the other nations around us, they would have turned a blind eye to our "transgressions" against the French.

Four... There all annoyed with us.

In short, the AI's have no need for us. We take up space that they want. It is to the AI's advantage to see us whittled down. It knows that ganging up on is it's best hope. That is why France got these nations to declare war for so little.

Simply.. we appear too much a threat without apparent benefits to the AI's

If we laid low untill the Aztecs were the biggest and the badest, least popular, it would be a little different. Unfortunatly it would have made things more difficult in the end.
...
just my 2 cents
Mss

[GhengisFarb™]

HEY PEOPLE! Germany may STILL get involved with the Greco-Lizzie War, in fact it would be easier for them to wage that one with their roads and offer more resources to be gained. Currently they have to march over the "Thick as Fleas" Mountains to get to us. I still advocate quick attacks and offers of peace as our optimal alternative.

[Shiber]

I just wish Greece would connect Mycenae already so we'll be able to trade our surplus dyes with them to gain some gpt, as well as postpone Greece's declaration of war against us, which will come sooner or later anyway.

[GodKing]

Guess it is just time we kill all of our neighbors

Other than declairing war on france, which many people (peace lovers included) felt we had to do, I do not see any way we could have avoided this.

Perhaps we should have taken america out compleatly first. Perhaps we could have focused on ourselves for the next 50 turns. Just tossing out ideas for next time.

I agree with much of what togas wrote above.

[ManicStarSeed]

Originally posted by GodKing
Other than declairing war on france, which many people (peace lovers included) felt we had to do, I do not see any way we could have avoided this.

I agree. The only way we could have avoided this was to stay huddled in our lil' ole jungle, build up our cities and be nice to all. Clearly that was not really an option with the AIs out REXing us and gobbeling up the prime real estate, we had to do something to remain competitive.

The war on the americans seemed to sour attitudes torwards us.

Attaking France was the last straw for the AI.

We are strong for our actions. We are honorable and the AI hates us for it. This is why we are in this situation.

Our only "issue" is that we are stretched a little thin.
With a little careful action, we can meet ALL our war objectives and defend ourselves.

The AI (france) is banking on us scattering our forces to the other front. It is a gambut. Persia and Germany will pay. In the future Persia will have problems because of it (RoP infringmnt).

All is good
Mss