The Compromise of 210 BC *Everyone Read*

[Shiber]

I'm not sure either, I need more case studies to satisfy my doubts. However, at the moment this is the best theory we have and the numbers confirm it. I suggest we apply the scientific method and make this our paradigm until we find a better theory.

[adaMada]

Originally posted by Apocalypse
We won't be some backwards civilization for ever. In 30 or 40 turns we will have a chance to be significantly more developed.

I think this may be one of the most important points in this chat...

Apoc's plan is forward looking in that we plan to be building up our Economy soon. Once we do that, then researching techs on our own will be feasable, and the techs Apoc has set out for us to research are where we should go then. The tech trades discussed will probably not be taking place for the next fourty turns anyway (which should be enough time to at least start on getting our economy rolling), which is the earliest I could see the AI getting Chilvary (probably later than that, actually).

We should think of this as more of a long term plan that works on the idea that we'll be improving our situation as soon as these wars are done. Hopefully, as a part of that, we'll be able to research techs at a decent rate.

-- adaMada

[Apocalypse]

First I feel the need to respond to DAVOUT's comment. I am not trying to make a power grab. My job is to look at the situation we are, assess the needs of the various factions in the government, and try to come up with a plan that can fulfill the most people's needs. This is working with other ministers to get a compromise through.

Togas: The plan is to also buy Theology immediately if possible. Keep in mind we can use one tech to help pay for the other.

MrWhereItsAt: I am not yet sure what the slider should be at. I haven't seen how it would look under Monarchy. Theoretically it would be best to keep a significant cash flow, but not be as low as 10% anymore.

[Apocalypse]

About the cost...

We must start doing some real research or we'll go bankrupt. I would love if we could continue at 10% but that isn't an option in the Middle Ages.

[Shiber]

I am SUCH an idiot. Feudalism costs 1,240 beakers, I got the cost factor for Feudalism all wrong. Here are the new numbers which IMHO prove that the minimum amount of beakers you can produce each turn is 1/40 of the total cost in beakers:

Cost of Feudalism in beakers: 1,240. Beakers are produced by either transforming citizens to scientists (which produce 1 beaker per turn) or directing money to science (1 beaker per turn for every gold coin directed to science).
Amount of money we paid to France: 371g + 10gpt, or assuming that 1gpt = ~16g as a lump sum (a newer figure based on some experiments I've made) we paid 531g. That's ~43% of the total cost of Feudalism.
Amount of turns left to complete Feudalism before we bought it: 13, or 32.5% out of 40 turns.
Since buying a tech costs more money than researching it yourself (when buying a tech you pay extra because you get it now, whereas when you research it yourself you have to wait), it makes perfect sense.
Conclusion: so far, my paradigm stands where all other proposals made so far fail.
Feedback: yes, I'd like some. If you have found a mistake in my calculations or have a better paradigm to suggest, I'd love to hear it!

[Proserpine]

Leaving aside the science cost question, Apoc your plan seems reasonable. I support it as written

[vulture]

Shiber: I made a quick scenario with the editor to test this. 2 civs, standard size map. I gave Rome (player) the standard starting techs (which include alphabet) and Egypt the same plus writing. I also set it so that I was in contact with Egpyt from the start. I gave Rome lots of gold, and then looked at how the cost of buying writing changed over time. Two runs through - one with Rome producing 1 beaker per turn, the other with 3 beakers per turn. Cost of tech is 128 beakers in this case, so in both runs the research time is 40 turns. Initial cost of buying the tech is 192 gold. Below are three columns of data. First column: no. of turns left to research tech; 2nd column: cost when science produces 1 beaker per turn; 3rd column: cost when science produces 3 beakers per turn.

40 193 193
39 191 189
38 190 184
37 189 179
36 187 174
35 185 170
34 184 166
33 183 161
32 180 157
31 179 151
30 177 147
29 176 143
28 174 138
27 173 134
26 172 128
25 170 124

So after 15 turns of research, researching 1 beaker per turn has lowered the cost by 23 gold, while researching at 3 beakers per turn has lowered the cost by 69 gold. In both cases there are still 25 turns to go. I didn't see much point continuing past this, as the pattern was already pretty obvious.

In the Feudalism case, I guess your beaker production was actually pretty close to 1/40th the cost of the tech per turn (BTW did you factor in the reduction in number of beakers needed due to the fact that the tech is known by other civs - you didn't explicity mention it).

But I stand by my earlier claim: setting to research something in 40 turns won't necessarily lower the cost of buying it appreciably, unless you really are close to genuinely researching it in 40 turns (rather than using 1 scientist and the 40-turn cap).

[Shiber]

Originally posted by vulture
In the Feudalism case, I guess your beaker production was actually pretty close to 1/40th the cost of the tech per turn

Actually it was more like 1/600th of the cost.
Anyway, I see you were right. I'm glad we finally have a theory on this that is based on an experiment that is free of any outside influence. In Feudalism's case the cost was probably lowered because a few civs (I think two or three of the known civs) already had Feudalism and I simply did not know how to factor that in, and as I said I was waiting for someone to propose a better model based on a better experiment. You did just that.

[trickey]

I like that plan alot apoc, i like any plan that includes chivalry asap

[Donal Graeme]

This brings up an interesting point. Exactly how does the AI code for trades anyway? Does anyone know code who could possibly examine what Firaxis has the AI work of? Understanding that would go a long way toward balancing the cheating AI. Of course, the ethical questions involved... and the fact that that is almost cheating... Gonna take some thought.

edit: Vulture, that game that you made to test your hypothesis? Would it be possible to set it up with another AI player, to see the effects that multiple trade partners has on price? That would be really helpful.

[Shiber]

If you ask me, experimenting with mock games is ok but the moment you take a peek at the code, you're cheating.

[DeathByTheSword]

agreeing with the plan here apoc

[Apocalypse]

Listen, I predict we can obtain either Theology or Chivalry in the next few turns. I want to know if this affects anything.

[DAVOUT]

Originally posted by Shiber
I'm not sure either, I need more case studies to satisfy my doubts. However, at the moment this is the best theory we have and the numbers confirm it. I suggest we apply the scientific method and make this our paradigm until we find a better theory.

I checked : 1 beaker = 1 gold, its true.

So we can name your finding the Shiber Paradigme.

Research : Do it yourself !

[Shiber]

No, vulture proved me wrong. Read his posts with the columns and stuff.
I was especially surprised to see that researching a tech costs more than buying it. I guess this changes when you have libraries (and further when you have universities and research labs) in most of your cities because then you produce more beakers for the same amount of gold and research becomes justifiable.
But that's only a guess, we'll need to test that too. I'll run an experiment tomorrow, right now it's late and I don't think straight.

[vulture]

In that test, buying the tech cost 193 gold, while researching took 128 beakers. So researching is more 'efficient' in that sense (though not in others).

But...

I had a look at how the cost varies with no. of civs you have contact with who have that tech. I did a test with 5 other civs, and one with 9 other civs. The details of what is going on are a little obscure, but essentially it works like this:

If no-one has the tech, you have to research the full quota of beakers (192 in the case of writing in my test). If you have contact with all the civs in the game, and they all have the tech, the cost in beakers is half of the full cost. In between it varies linearly. So if there are civs in a game, and you are in contact with M of them that have the tech, the cost in beakers is multiplied by (1-M/(2N)). So with 16 civs in game, 8 of whom you have contact with and who have the tech, then the cost to research it is reduced to 75% of the full cost. This is all for the cost in beakers of doing your own research.

The cost for buying the tech (ignoring slight variations due to the attitude of the civ you are bargaining with) is less, contrary to what I just said at the start of this post, UNLESS only one civ has the tech. Basically, the cost in gold is 3/4 the cost in beakers. But if 1 civ has a monopoly on the tech, the price you have to pay is doubled (1.5 times the cost in beakers).

There seem to be some other factors involved as well, but the above is pretty close. Here are some data for a test with 5 AI civs. First column is no. of civs I have made contact with, second is the cost in beakers to research the tech myself, lastly is the cost in gold to buy the tech of the Persians (who were annoyed with me - the price for polite civs was systematically 2 gold less).

0 192 -
1 175 260
2 155 116
3 136 103
4 117 90
5 96 76

The cost in beakers isn't exact, as it can't be determined precisely when you need 39 turns at 3 beakers per turn - it could be 117-119 with the same result (for example).

[Shiber]

Oh, you were playing in a TINY map, that explains it. I actually looked at the data and thought this proves that techs cost less to buy than to research.

[Shiber]

Okay, so now we have know that techs can be as expensive as 50% more gold than the price of the tech, as cheap as 50% of the full price of the tech (if you haven't begun to research the tech yet) and that each beaker you've researched saves you 1.5333 gold coins off the price that the AIs charge for a tech (before applying any discounts related to how many civs you have contact with have the tech). We also have a formula for calculating the discount in the tech given the number of civs you have contact with and how many of those civs already has the tech.
We've really made a lot of progress!

I'm off to bed. Tomorrow I'll try to run a mock game and annoy a civ by demanding tributes and another where I'll appease another civ by giving them tributes and then see what kind of effect their attitude has on the price of a tech.

Edit: I forgot to mention that a city with a library saves you 1.3 gold coins for every gold coin you invest in research (+50% to beaker output for the same investment in gold, and same for other science improvements), and cities with universities and research labs save you 2.06666 and 2.83333 gold coins for every gold coin you invest in research in that city.

[Shiber]

Another interesting discovery: in a situation where you're buying a tech from an AI who is the only known civ to have that tech and you haven't got a single library in your cities (let alone universities and research labs) it actually becomes cheaper to buy the tech than to invest money in science to research it yourself after you've collected 93.75% of the beakers needed to complete the project. Unfortunately this is of no use to us...

[adaMada]

Originally posted by Apocalypse
Listen, I predict we can obtain either Theology or Chivalry in the next few turns. I want to know if this affects anything.

Noo... but if you have some plan for doing it, you should PM it to either me or Togas so we can check that there's nothing else against it and make sure it gets done. (You might have already told Togas and I might just be out of the loop, ).

-- adaMada

[Apocalypse]

I haven't told anyone except through this thread and the one I created this afternoon. I'm too lazy for pms.

[adaMada]

Yea, just saw the other thread. That's good enough .

-- adaMada

[Donal Graeme]

Fascinating. Early in the game it is more cost-effective to trade for techs and have the science slider bar set to 10%, then to research the tech. The money you save from trading rather than putting into science allows you to build more libraries and Universities and in the process you end ahead of where you would be if you had only researched. The only problem is that you have to be behind the curve for this to work, something that can be a major disadvantage militarily.

[Apocalypse]

I'm going with the compromise.

[adaMada]

Awsome . Go for it .

-- adaMada

[Panag]

hi ,

nice , lets go for this "compromise"

have a nice day