The World Tomorrow

[Nubclear]

I've been thinking about the future as have most of us...and I've been dying to know what Apolytoners think is going to happen in the future. Is India/Pakistan going to nuke Pakistan/India? Will China get involved? Whats going to happen to America? Will Europe merge to become a superpower?

Sure, everyone has said at one point or another what they think will happen, but I wanted to collect them into one thread.

[Starchild]

Hang on, cause it's gonna be a weird and wild ride.

[Mr. President]

There'll be instability for a few years and then things will quieten down again; a little like what happened in the last century. A lot of countries won't survive and there may be some new ones coming up - Abkhazia, a united Ireland, West Papua, and Aceh are ones I would advise you to watch for.

[Provost Harrison]

I would like to see a united Europe. Global socialist revolution would be better, but I'm not holding my breath on that one in the near future

[Seeker]

-The older radical generation of the 60s and 70s in Muslim countries will die off, and the younger Westernized generation will usher in a new era of democracy.... (25-30 years)

-Same thing in China, except that the old regime tries to distract them by attacking Taiwan....the young, underpaid Army revolts and China ends up joining Taiwan. The resulting New China gives quasi-independence to Tibet.
(50-100 years)

-Ukraine, Byelorussia, and Kazakstan end up gradually being readsorbed by Russia in a peaceful process with mostly economic motivations...(50 years)

-Space Exploration will be largerly abandoned by the US. China will pick up the exploration of space where the USA left off. (20 years)

-The USA will gradually become more and more ossified and decadent in its political structures, coming to ressemble the ritualistic political theater of the later Manchu Empire. (process over 200 years)

-Ireland unites. (30-40 years)

-South Africa rejuvenates in a new spirit of national racial reconcialiation and individual responisiblity. It comes to ressemble a European social democracy. Quaddafi dies, and Libya joins SA as the moral leaders of the newly regenerated OAS. Together, they battle lawlessness and corrupt despotism in Zimbabwe, Sudan, Egypt, and Congo. This leads to a new African 'renaissance'. (100 years)

-A non-violent political movement of 'New Marxism' sweeps South America. It is met with brutal repression by the US backed juntas. The US is indirectly involved in the massive politcal suppression of subversives in the Americas for years. (Indefinite)

-The Canadian political structure continues to decentralize. There is no more Canadian Army. Canadians and Australians become the most international people, with huge immigration and most of the population working in 'international' jobs.

-This new cosmopolitanism leads to a rejuvenated UN. Faced with an intractable and hidebound US, the UN is radically reformed. The old 5 'Allies' no longer have veto powers, and there is a standing rapid reaction force under independent command. The USA withdraws from this new body.

-Gradually, the New UN enables and assists undeveloped economies with increasing living standards, raising wages, and environmental regulations. This 'New Globalization' increases world prosperity. (200 years)

-Eventually, under waves of immigration, social ferment, and generational change, the USA re-joins the world community as an enlightened liberal champion of freedom and human rights. Repudiating their past, the new US works closely with the world in international security issues. African chaos is finally reigned in. The world economy is liberalized everywhere, even the US no longer subsidizes its agricultural industry. This leads to a boom period in the third world.

-Finally, after many abortive 'flags and footprints' missions over the past centuries, the new US leads the world in establishing a real permanent human colony in space. (300 years)

-Then the AIs take over and confine us all to a Matrix like world. Humans live on only because their brains provide a source of cheap data processing and storage. In underground bunkers, the remnants of humanity loll in vats, having the pleasure centers of their brains continually stimulated artficially, we are the perfect slave population for the Godlike intelligences we created in out image. (1000 years. Maybe.)

[Starchild]

My prefered scenario: AI's and nanotech come to fruition midway through the 21st century. Humans can either bootstrap themselves up, or get a hand up from the AIs, to similar levels of intelligence. We live in peace as gods forever and ever.

My worse scenario: AI's and nanotech come to fruition midway through the 21st century. Humans can either bootstrap themselves up, or get a hand up from the AIs, to similar levels of intelligence. Ascension doesn't change basic human nature and the rest of time is spent in horrific wars between gods, fighting with nanotech and abilities beyond our understanding.

My "I can live with this scenario": Technology doesn't advance as quickly as I'd like. Steady improvements push the average lifespan to past a century. This delays scenarios 1 and 2 for about 150 years.

[Seeker]

I think you overestimate our scientific abilities.

I think major practical technical breakthroughs are revolutionary rather than evolutionary, so 'sci-fi' scenarios are probably not going to happen in nearby times, because we're just to damn satisfied and stable. And we lack a real frontier.

I think we'll see the quality and speed of all forms of digital entertainment increase greatly in the near future.

[Skanky Burns]

Communication will increase exponentially, to the point where people will be able to communicate with each other through chips implanted in them.

[David Floyd]

I see no one agrees with the "Clash of Civilizations" theory

[Kepler]

Technology doesn't "change" anything of importance -- human behavior is conditioned by instincts millions of years old and institutions thousands of years old.

10 years: Gradual overextension of US military as longterm commitments aggregate.

25 years: Mass migrations to cities in third world countries and fluid global capital results in spectacular successes and failures as various economic models are experimented with.

50 years: Huge, eduated Asian populations dominate world labor markets, causing "Western" economies to coalesce into a specialized high technology service provider. Weapons and medicines are principle outputs.

100 years: Too far out for any useful prediction. Let's try not to kill ourselves off.

[Caesar the Great]

AIDS kills cripples economies of many sub-Saharan nations, US, China etc "recolonize" primarily seeking natural resources (20 years)

UN becomes more and more powerless as regional blocs strenghten (20 years)

China attacks Taiwan, US becomes more and more politically isolationist while continuing to expand its economic intervention in foreign nations (20 years)

Nuclear weapon is detonated somewhere, either in US or Europe by Muslim radicals... within 100 years the only place you'd find a Muslim is in a textbook (20 years)

India and Pakistan solve the world's overpopulation problems (20 years)

Russia finally acquires technology to drill for oil under the ice, unfortunately only an elite few benefit from this due to widespread corruption (20 years)

Aussies conquer the world (when pigs fly)

[C0ckney]

Originally posted by Seeker
-Same thing in China, except that the old regime tries to distract them by attacking Taiwan....the young, underpaid Army revolts and China ends up joining Taiwan. The resulting New China gives quasi-independence to Tibet.
(50-100 years)

-Ireland unites. (30-40 years)

not a chance.

-South Africa rejuvenates in a new spirit of national racial reconcialiation and individual responisiblity. It comes to ressemble a European social democracy. Quaddafi dies, and Libya joins SA as the moral leaders of the newly regenerated OAS. Together, they battle lawlessness and corrupt despotism in Zimbabwe, Sudan, Egypt, and Congo. This leads to a new African 'renaissance'. (100 years)

(that was satire, right..?)

[Case]

Aussies conquer the world (when pigs fly)

Coincidentally, the Australian Air Force's pride and joy, the F-111 bombers, are nicknamed 'pigs'

[Skanky Burns]

Like an Aussie could be arsed to rule the world though - not worth the effort.

[Case]

Like an Aussie could be arsed to rule the world though - not worth the effort.

And if we ruled the world who would we have to thrash in sporting competitions?

[Seeker]

"-South Africa rejuvenates in a new spirit of national racial reconcialiation and individual responisiblity. It comes to ressemble a European social democracy. Quaddafi dies, and Libya joins SA as the moral leaders of the newly regenerated OAS. Together, they battle lawlessness and corrupt despotism in Zimbabwe, Sudan, Egypt, and Congo. This leads to a new African 'renaissance'. (100 years)"


yeah...it was satire....

but I am an optimist, and eternally hope against hope that the Human Spirit will somehow overcome itself.

[C0ckney]

can't say i share your optimism but it's a nice world view

[Sandman]

10 years: New migration patterns emerge, Japanese people start emigrating across the world, Latin Americans emigrate to the EU, especially Spain. The EU becomes more united, but also more unstable. The US becomes more authoritarian and religious. The Republicans are still in power. India and Pakistan have a 'hotline' installed, making future conflict unlikely.

25 years: Space exploration is still nowhere. A popular movement aimed at restarting the space program is launched across the world. China is pretty much the same as ever. India enacts a one-child policy. After investing billions in fusion power, it is abandoned as unworkable. Nanotech and AI are also dispensed with as impossible dreams.

50 years: The space program movement has run it's course, leaving humans settlements across the solar system, with an Earth starved of inspiration and resources enters a prolonged period of decadance, fueled by total-immersion computer games.

[Datajack Franit]

50 years: european population shrinks to 150 millions due to demographic collapse- same happens in japan, north america

70 years: asian countries and russia rule the world

100 years: europe and US turn into islamic dictatorships

150 years: BOOOM!

[Buck Birdseed]

Originally posted by David Floyd
I see no one agrees with the "Clash of Civilizations" theory

The jacket cover carries a quote by Kissinger saying how accurate he thinks the book is. I think that says it all really.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Seeker
-Same thing in China, except that the old regime tries to distract them by attacking Taiwan....the young, underpaid Army revolts and China ends up joining Taiwan. The resulting New China gives quasi-independence to Tibet.
(50-100 years)

My take is Taiwan will reunify with the PRC within 20 - 30 years.

[Saint Marcus]

50 years: european population shrinks to 150 millions due to demographic collapse- same happens in japan, north america

70 years: asian countries and russia rule the world

hmm...Russia's population is rapidly decreasing, far more rapidly than that of any other nation.

[Saint Marcus]

one thing that will happen: democracy will end, dictatorship will replace it. Just as Aristotle predicted, democracies are inherently instable and when faced with massive setbacks, it will look for a strong autocratic leader to rule the country.

This will first happen in Russia, and other new or less developed democracies. Sooner or later, the USA will follow, and eventually most of Europe too.

[Datajack Franit]

hmm...Russia's population is rapidly decreasing, far more rapidly than that of any other nation.

True, but history has shown that emigrated population always come back to its homeland when the economic conditions improve

There are MANY russians who fled russia in these years that could come back as soon as it becomes again a world power

[Saint Marcus]

why not the same for the USA, Japan or Europe?

and Russia can't be a world power with the current demographic trend

[Odin]

10 years: "War on Terrorism" comes to a close. Saddam assasinated, Iraq becomes democracy. Consevatives get more control of US government. EU, China, and Japan becomes more powerful.

25 years: US government collapses, Liberals take control of govenment, stengthens seperation of church and state and socializes healthcare, insurance, and the utillities. Electoral College abandoned. Secular, democratic ME nations (Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Iraq) force religious nations to give up power and create secular republics in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Sudan. Moon colonization begins. Manned mission to Mars. Complex life found on Jupiter's moon Europa, microbes found on Mars. Hydrogen Fusion pefected.

50 years: average life span is 100 years. Cure for AIDS found. Terraforming of Mars begins. World population stablizes at 12 billion, starts to shrink. Afican nations become economic powerhouses. Ailen radio signals found.

100 years: Population drops to 8 billion. Enviroment starts to recover

500 years: World population steady at 1.5 billion. Terraforming of Mars completed.

[Stefu]

Whether 10, 50 or 100 years from now, the world will be a wealthier, less hungry, less thirsty, less diseased, more advanced, more enlightened and yes, even less polluted, place than now.

Russia and China will evolve into "kekkonocracies". A word you haven't heard before, most likely because I just made it up, it refers to Finland's former president Urho Kekkonen who stayed in power for 25 years (maximum limit is 12 years, but Urho wasn't beholden by petty regulations) and pretty much did what he wanted. The countries will be democratic, though not necessarily how we view democracy, as there are rules but the leaders don't feel too beholden to them. Economic systems will be rather capitalist, and hey, at least trains run on time. Ruling parties will be nationalist, populist, rightish parties, in Putinist vein - in China, the party will be pretty much the continuation of current Communist party with a new name and new stated goals. Vlad Putin might still rule Russia. In any case, both countries will still have their problems, but be rapidly gaining on First World when it comes to wealth of the people.

Arab world will experience some sort of an Islamic reformation at some point. There will be a focal person on this, a cleric or something. The reformed Islam will be rather more Westernized and West-tolerant than the fundamentalism - kinda like the current Islamic moderates, but more of a movement with clear views and goals. In any case, as soon as the reformation gains strenght, expect for fundies to be less concentrated on evils of Zionist conspiracy and more on evils of traitor "Moslems" as they view them.

Africa will still be rather a basketcase - but improvement will happen. Slowly but surely, some African countries will start to lift themselves from morass.

The "Third Left" will get going. As "First Left" was the liberal movement starting with Locke, Jefferson and boys in the 18th cent and the "Second Left" the socialism of 19th cent onwards, the "Third Left" will be bit like feminism for women, or socialism for the working class, but extended on all walks of life. Social engineering to make all the groups equal. Think about Snapcase, but less meandering, clearer and more concise. (I mean, has someone got the complete image of what the hell Snapcase's ideology is all about? I don't think even Snapcase gets it completely.) There's going to be a some kind of a book or a tract or something putting the "Third Left" ideology in words people can understand and, above all, proposing clear ways to build a new society. Third Leftist movement's backbone will be the immigrants to Europe and America and generally all sort of minorities. The social democratic parties of the first world will continue to become centrist and lose their influence, eventually becoming a centrist movement between the Right and the (new) Left, representing the middle class.

[Flandrien]

Hydrogen will replace fossil fuel.
This hydrogen will be produced with huge solar power stations in former OPEC countries.

[Lord Merciless]

In 100 years, all of you will be dead.

[Datajack Franit]

Why, I could live up to 120 years