Science: Predictions & What to research next

[Shiber]

We've finally reached the point where we can actually compete with the AI in the field of scientific research. Science-related decisions are becoming more important, and I think we should start a serious public discussion about how we want to use Medicine once its researched, what we should research next and how the near future might look like.
Allow me to begin the discussion by making the following observations:

* We are currently researching Medicine in hopes of completing it before any AI does and then selling it for a lot of money. However, Medicine is still 4 turns away from completion and the chances for us to be the first to complete it are looking slim, though it is always good to have high hopes for the future.

* I predict that we will finish Medicine the same turn that one of the tech leaders will, so we won't be able to sell it to one of the leading countries since they'll all buy it immediately. However, we'll be able to exchange it in return for Nationalism with one of the lesser powers that has Nationalism but won't be able to afford to buy Medicine from the tech leaders who already have Nationalism.
In simpler terms, I predict that we will be able to exchange Medicine for Nationalism but won't make much in terms of money.

* In case Medicine is discovered before we are able to finish researching it on our own, we must buy it immediately so that we can begin researching Communism or Espionage immediately. The reason behind this is that most AIs will probably be racing towards Sanitation or more likely Steam Power, which is a popular choice since it's practically one of the best techs in the game. If we manage to get Communism or Espionage first, we might be able to exchange it for Steam Power and some cash and maybe sell it around as well.

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Any comments on my observations or observations of your own will be appreciated and greatly contribute to this important public discussion.

[roadcage]

If only this were true! By my estimates we are now about on par with Otto beakerwise, but to pull away we need to exceed the COMBINED beaker power of AI's on current Tech because they sell to each other for a fraction of what they charge the hoomans.

Be prepared to continue the study the price down strategy for a while.

[joncnunn]

I concur with Shiber.

I note that it's Sanitation plus cash for Steam Power on that deal, but we can make up that cash selling Sanitation to the tech leaders.

[Shiber]

Roadcage, our goal is to research faster than the AI, and to achieve that we must have a greater beaker output than the AI with the highest beaker output, and we need to start researching every tech before the AIs get a chance to.
Don't worry, I believe our time will come sooner than you think.

[Thud]

Our situation almost makes me feel like I've actually been doing something for the past 2 months

Yes, go for Sanitation.

Drat, now I've gone and revealed that I can post again. (I live in New England, didn't have power; storm) Now I'll actually have to start to do things as SMC.

[Aggie]

I will soon as a statement on research I am currently analyzing the situation.
Aggie

[realpolitic]

Originally posted by Shiber


* In case Medicine is discovered before we are able to finish researching it on our own, we must buy it immediately so that we can begin researching Sanitation immediately. The reason behind this is that most AIs will probably be racing towards Steam Power, which is a popular choice since it's practically one of the best techs in the game. If we manage to get Sanitation first, we might be able to exchange it for Steam Power and some cash and maybe sell it around as well.

I think a better altenative is finishing the reasearch unless it's developed so early that the cost of purchase is less than developing, then use it to purchase Nationalism. Then develop eighther Communism or Espionage, withever conscenus believes is the lower priority for AI..If we're not at war with Germany, and most other civs are Democratic, my experience is that Communism is a lower priority.

[Shiber]

Double post.

[Shiber]

You're right about researching Communism instead of Sanitation. From my experience it's the least attractive research goal and there's an excellent chance that we'll be the ones to research it first.
I've changed the top post accordingly.

[joncnunn]

Sanitation, Communism, and Episoage are all dead end techs with no other tech after it.

I'd sugest that the order to discover them be:

1. Sanitation
2. Communism
3. Episoage

[Shiber]

It'd be great if we can discover Sanitation first, but I'd go for either Communism of Espionage as a research goal because Sanitation is a popular tech by the AI while Communism and Espionage are often neglected, thus giving us a better chance to be the ones to discover it first.

[E_T]

Get Medicne and trade it for Nationalism. Work on Steam Engine & Industrialization next, while the AI goes for Sanitation (growth driven, remember), Espianoge & Communism. While we research Electricity, built (with a possible prebuild) Sufferage (or use it as a prebuild for Darwin) and trade the A.I. for the other stuff.

By that time, Germany will be in ruins and England might be at war with us.

E_T

[joncnunn]

If we reserach Sanitation in 4 turns after getting Medicine, we probably beat the AI to it.

With a 4 turn delay reseraching Communism, the AI beats us to Sanitation.

Espionage is so neglated that we could discover several techs before coming back to it and still be the first.

[Shiber]

I doubt that we can research Sanitation in 4 turns. It costs 20% more beakers than Medicine.
I'd rather see us research Espionage and then exchange it for other techs such as Sanitation and sell it for money to the rest.

[E_T]

Please, oh Please give me Railroads & Factories.....

E_T

[Shiber]

Gladly. We'll exchange medicine for nationalism and lots of cash and gpt, and we'll then exchange espionage (which we will research next) for railroads and probably sanitation. From there the road to industrialization is short.

[ManicStarSeed]

I do not know about this....

My experience tells me that the AI values nationalism more than any tech of the age. I have never gotten nationalism for medicine. Now I am playing 1.29 so it might be different, but I have said it in Aggie's thread, the AI is real lopsided in regards to nationalism. It values it very highly. Ill bet that steam power, medicine, 1500 lytons + 20 GPT might convince it (even a lowly civ).

Like I said, it could be that I play 1.29. I hope so.

Mss

[roadcage]

ManicStarSeed, I have similar experiences. Why they value it so highly does not make sense. But they do!Actually, I NEVER study Nationalism, it just slows down my drive to Replaceable Parts. And it is always available at peace negotiation time.

[realpolitic]

Originally posted by ManicStarSeed
I do not know about this....

My experience tells me that the AI values nationalism more than any tech of the age. I have never gotten nationalism for medicine.
Mss

Yes, but all the scientific civs who are in the Middle Ages will have it, along with the civs who bought it from them, and that should drive down the price .

[Togas]

Originally posted by roadcage
Actually, I NEVER study Nationalism, it just slows down my drive to Replaceable Parts.

I thought I was the only one who did that.

My first tech is always Steam Power, followed by Replaceable Parts. Gives me twice-as-fast workers to build my Continental Railway. I later trade Replaceable Parts for Industrialization, Medicine, and/or Nationalism. I then bee-line to Electricity for Hoover.

--Togas

[ManicStarSeed]

Originally posted by Togas


I thought I was the only one who did that.

My first tech is always Steam Power, followed by Replaceable Parts. Gives me twice-as-fast workers to build my Continental Railway. I later trade Replaceable Parts for Industrialization, Medicine, and/or Nationalism. I then bee-line to Electricity for Hoover.

--Togas

Yep That's what I do

[Arnelos]

I have the same strategy when playing on Monarch level and below... on EMPEROR level, things might be a bit more hairy...