There will always be counter stratregies. In a 1v1 game, I can always pick a civ that will match up against any other civ. This would be especially true for such a small map. Personally I have gotten kind of sick of swordsmen rushes, this is not civ to me. The biggest question in these games has been, "Do I have iron?". If not then I am usually screwed.
To answer your question, I would go with either the Aztecs or Greeks. The Aztecs can be early game monsters with their jag warriors, and I think the hoplite for defense against swordsmen and the added bonus of the associated GA would be nice too.
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