Was Stalin preparing for an attack on Germany before Hitler struck first?

Lancer · December 31, 2002, 10:28

I've read that Stalin had been building up forces on his frontier for some time. Was he planning something?

Dauphin · December 31, 2002, 10:29

Yes.

Arrian · December 31, 2002, 10:44

Actually, as I understand it, the opposite was true. Stalin was given intelligence reports indicating that the Nazis were preparing to attack, but he ordered his frontline divisions NOT to move up to the border and fortify their positions, for fear of "provoking" the Nazis.

EDIT: misread your intent, come to think of it. I read it as "was Stalin preparing to deal with a German attack" instead of "was Stalin preparing to attack westward." Hmm... possibly, but he wasn't nearly ready.

-Arrian

Az · December 31, 2002, 11:57

errm, Is it the 'Icebreaker' book? I've heard the interview with the autor, and things seemed to make sense, till he said that the USSR had an advantage cause it had wheeled tanks "because they're able to move rapidly"

Dauphin · December 31, 2002, 12:05

I thought his intention was to wait until the Germans and Brits & French slogged it out, and then he could send his troops in fresh and pretty much unnopposed. An ensuing peace would give him concessions that were his ultimate objective.

The collapse of France screwed things up a bit. Operation Barbarossa topped off the balls up in Stalin's plan.

Pekka · December 31, 2002, 12:07

I also remember this the same way Arrian just posted. Don't know for fact though.

Urban Ranger · December 31, 2002, 12:17

I heard about it, and it does make sense in light of the positioning of Soviet forces.

JCG · December 31, 2002, 12:33

The Suvorov argument again...based partially on the fact that Stalin's forces weren't laid out defending the frontier but rather in what could be taken for an "offensive" formation.

Well, Stalin continued his treaty obligations with Hitler (like giving him raw materials) up to the very day of the invasion, even when he was given some advance knowledge of Hitler's intentions.

So as far as we can tell, if he was supposedly going to attack Germany, he sure wasn't going to do it at that moment...the question is, would such attack be a month, a year or even several years later?

Sava · December 31, 2002, 12:40

Stalin was not laying his forces out in any sort of offensive formation. The Soviet forces were not prepared for the Nazi invasion at all, nor were they preparing any sort of attack. There were a lot of internal problems Stalin was dealing with. And plus, the mass production of T34's wasn't underway until after the Nazis attacked. In fact, many of the tank factories were moved East when the German forces were on approach to Moscow.

It's an interesting idea to think about, but unfortunately, it doesn't make much sense.

spartak · December 31, 2002, 12:58

The internal problems Sava refers to include butchering a large chunk of the Russian Officer Corps. Hardly something Stalin would have done if we were planning an attack

Arrian · December 31, 2002, 13:13

Well, he attacked Finland right after said butchery.

-Arrian

DinoDoc · December 31, 2002, 14:41

Quote:

Originally posted by Arrian
Well, he attacked Finland right after said butchery.

Look how well that turned out. It was the poor performance of the Russian army during that war that gave credence to the real fears among the allies that Germany could knock Russia out of the war as they had done in WWI with less troops on that front.

Arrian · December 31, 2002, 14:55

I agree that it went badly, and that the purge was stupid. I wasn't trying to say that the attack on Finland was well-timed or executed, but rather to suggest that Stalin didn't think the same way (at least until after the Finnish debacle), and therefore could very well have been planning something, despite it being a bad idea.

-Arrian

Ramo · December 31, 2002, 15:24

Absolutely. That's why the Red Army fared so poorly initially; they fought a defensive war when they were prepared for an offensive war.

Lawrence of Arabia · December 31, 2002, 15:28

Quote:

The internal problems Sava refers to include butchering a large chunk of the Russian Officer Corps. Hardly something Stalin would have done if we were planning an attack

Not necessairly. He might have purged the army to eliminate all of the people who were against him and then when he would have attacked Germany, all of the officers would have been loyal to Stalin.

Lefty Scaevola · December 31, 2002, 15:29

The deplyment of russian forces was midly indicative of attack, but there is not other evidence for it, and much that contradicts such intent.

Sava · December 31, 2002, 16:17

The deployment of troops could be agrued either way, but knowing Hitler's success with the Blitzkrieg and the strength of the mechanized Nazi army, Stalin did not have the stength in number of tanks. If T34 production were at its peak before the German attack, then maybe this idea would have merit, but Stalin was not planning to invade Germany. If he was, he would have had a large mobile vehicle force in place, and he didn't... it didn't even exist at that time. Not until Stalingrad did the T34 production really reach monumental proportions.

"Quantity has a quality all its own" -- Lenin

chequita guevara · December 31, 2002, 16:20

Yes.

Stalin was slowly building his forces up to the point that he would be able to attack. He was planning on attack in 1944, give of take.

The officer purge was stupid from a military point of view, but not a political one. Trotksy built the Red Army, and many of the officers were still loyal to him, despite the Stalinist lies. Had the purges not taken place before the Stalin-Hitler pact, it is possible they would have launched a coup d'etat (or even if there was no pact). Stalin and the bureaucracy couldn't continue with this potential dagger at their throat.