The Japan Card

[Gatekeeper]

Nuclear proliferation just seems to the latest stage in the technological race.

The next step will be preliminary defenses capable of intercepting missiles in flight — already being fine-tuned with the Israeli Arrow and American Patriot systems, along with work beginning on an anti-missile defense system in Alaska — and the step after that will be fully functional and mostly reliable systems. After that, I don't know.

It appears there is no stopping proliferation, nor shall there be any real attempt to prevent nations from erecting anti-missile defense systems in response to the proliferation.

Returning to the Korean Peninsula briefly, I think America should insist that South Korea and North Korea begin real peace talks, so that we can, in time, remove the 37,000 troops we have there. My understanding is that our troops are there only because there never has been a formal peace treaty and, thus, the DMZ is merely a buffer between two powerful armies that, technically, are still at war.

This peace treaty would have to be between SK and NK, *not* NK and America. After all, if our SK allies are officially at peace with NK, we could remove our troops ... that way, we'd not have to sign some silly non-aggression pact with a despotic regime (NK in this case), and said despotic regime wouldn't have to worry about 37,000 U.S. troops backing up the million or so troops SK has (they'd also have a peace treaty ... so no surprise attacks by either side, I'd imagine).

Gatekeeper

[GePap]

Saying " The DPRK is a Chinese proxy" is the same as going back to 1950 and saying "China is a Soviet puppet". It fits nciely with the ideological bent of the people who make it, but is is in many ways, wrong. The economy of the DPRK is already collapsed. How could they do worst now than back in the mid 90's when perhaps millions starved? Most buildings in Pyong-yang don't have power most of the day: What can be worst? What, we will implant some form of black hole?

China does not want a nuclear Korea, but it does not want milions of N.Korean refugees flooding the Northeast of China and creating a refugee crisis, and that threat is bigger to China right now, a China most interested in drawing in foreign investment, most of it from Japan, Taiwan, and S.Korea (China has eclipsed the US as S.Korea's biggest trade partner).

As for a Nulcear Japan: no matter how 'anti-nuclear' the people are, if at any point the government decided to make Japan nuclear, they would and once the deed was done, it would hardly be undone after the next set of elections (even figuring that said government lost the elections) Most asian states would not like it, but Japan is te biggest source of foreign Cash for most f Asia, so there is not much other Asian states could do.

The DPRK called Bushes bluff about stopping rogue states from getting WMD at all cost, so lets wait and see.

[Andrew1999]

Now Bush is saying the U.S. will "have a dialogue" with North Korea about its nuclear program. Since we were informed earlier that any negotiations with NK means the terrorists have won, then I guess the terrorists have won. Let me be the first to welcome our new Dear Leader to his empire.

[Venom]

The Japan rookie card is worth like 300 bucks. But only the one with the error that has Japan holding the bat that says "f*ck face" on the bottom.

[optimus2861]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
With no hope for the future, can we say that Kim might not be tempted to attack South? From all indications he is not a rational man to begin with, so the slight chance of a successful invasion of the South may seem like a good idea to Kim. Hell, he might just want to go out in a blaze of glory.

Also, don't forget that Seoul is barely 30 miles from the DMZ, and if North Korea were so inclined, they could start an artillery barrage against the city in minutes, never mind the horrifying thought that they could uncork the one nuke they're suspected of having at Seoul. Poof, gone, with no chance for anyone to evacuate. Even conventionally, NK could conceivably march on Seoul and get to it before SK/USA could effectively reinforce the area. The vulnerability of Seoul is the prime reason that SK will take just about any action short of surrender to keep NK pacified, USA's attitudes be damned. (That's oversimplifying, I know -- but you can't overemphasize that SK has a lot more at stake than does USA here, in terms of lives/national survival).

[GePap]

optimus2861:

While I agree with most of what you said, let me point out that any N.Korean nukes would be aimed at Japan, not their fellow Koreans. In fact, the main reason one hears from S.Korean statemen speaking about the need for a nuclear free N.Korea is that they fear if the DPRK gets a significan nuclear arsenal, the Japanse will get one, and then, as a reaction to Japan (not the DPRK), S.Korea would have to develop its own nuclear arsenal. Korean-Japanese dislike trancends th 38th parallel.

The fact that the Chinese, Japanses, and S.koreans all eye each other more than the DPRK is why the US attempt to get some sort of unified front against the North will in the end fail, and the US will be forced to talk to the DPRK.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by GePap
Saying " The DPRK is a Chinese proxy" is the same as going back to 1950 and saying "China is a Soviet puppet". It fits nciely with the ideological bent of the people who make it, but is is in many ways, wrong.

There's a difference between a proxy and a "puppet."
You can bet when this is resolved, the PRC will have gained in the arrangement.

The economy of the DPRK is already collapsed. How could they do worst now than back in the mid 90's when perhaps millions starved? Most buildings in Pyong-yang don't have power most of the day: What can be worst? What, we will implant some form of black hole?

The DPRK does manage to have enough resources to keep its military fed and functional, and they've been a progressive basketcase for decades. Aid programs are a black hole - to the extent that aid reaches the populace, there's nothing near enough to create a real economy out of the Stalinist mess that little Dear Leader has perpetuated.

China does not want a nuclear Korea, but it does not want milions of N.Korean refugees flooding the Northeast of China and creating a refugee crisis, and that threat is bigger to China right now,

So China's intelligence organizations were caught completely by surprise that their neighbor and subsidy partner was developing a nuclear program before the Agreed Framework, and that they continued one after.

And how are those starving refugees supposed to make it north? Or is the DPRK going to invade in that direction? How many refugees went north when those millions starved?

a China most interested in drawing in foreign investment, most of it from Japan, Taiwan, and S.Korea (China has eclipsed the US as S.Korea's biggest trade partner).

And a China which is not disinterested in becoming more and more of a major power globally, nor are they interested in simply being an agent of US policy. The PRC is interested in drawing foreign investment (and technology) because it is the only way to achieve the economic growth necessary to their long-range strategic ambitions of being a global power. That foriegn investment also gives China leverage in other nation's economies, so it's very much a two-way street.

As for a Nulcear Japan: no matter how 'anti-nuclear' the people are, if at any point the government decided to make Japan nuclear, they would

:lol Yep, just like that. Shouldn't take 'em more than a day or two.

and once the deed was done, it would hardly be undone after the next set of elections (even figuring that said government lost the elections)

You wouldn't even have to wait to the next set of scheduled elections. The goverment would collapse before they ever got the programs in place.

The DPRK called Bushes bluff about stopping rogue states from getting WMD at all cost, so lets wait and see.

Considering how conciliatory Bush has been (at least in contrast with the Iraq rhetoric, so far the Dear Leader hasn't come out appreciably worse than he would be if he'd just played ball. The North Korean people are getting shafted, but that's nothing new.

BTW, the DPRK has far more use for nukes as a sales commodity on the global market than they do as offensive weapons against militarily non-threatening nations. Japan has no more capability of threatening the DPRK than does Cameroon.

[DanS]

"So China's intelligence organizations were caught completely by surprise that their neighbor and subsidy partner was developing a nuclear program before the Agreed Framework, and that they continued one after."

Everybody knew NK had the program, just that nobody expected NK to admit to it, least of all the Chinese. China was caught flat-footed diplomatically. The rest are playing catch up. The US isn't, merely because we sat on the info for a couple of weeks and discussed it.

[Ned]

After having read this thread to this point, I do not believe that Japan would arm themselves with nuclear weapons even if they were "permitted" to do so by United States. Regardless, they have the added problem that they have signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

I would say the real wild-card is arming South Korea with nuclear weapons. The problem here, again, yeah is that they too have also signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

There is also the issue of the United Nations. If North Korea refuses to abandon its nuclear program, the International Atomic Energy Commission will have to report to the United Nations that North Korea is in noncompliance with their obligations under both the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the 1994 Agreement. What will Security Council do? Completely abandoned the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty? I think this will be the likely outcome if the United Nations permits North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons with no sanctions. However, we know that sanctions will not work without the full cooperation of China. Will China vote for sanctions and an also refuse to enforce them? I wouldn’t put it past them.

One also has to consider North Korea’s threat to react militarily to the imposition of sanctions.

Abandoning (by not enforcing) the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty severely undermines the U.N. position on Iraq.

I understand the George Bush has agreed to negotiate with North Korea. All this means to me is that North Korea has already won. What is the point of negotiations except to appease the North Koreans?

How can we ask the United Nations to go to war with Iraq while the same time appeasing the North Koreans? Can there be a double standard this blatant?

What does this all imply? I think the North Koreans went public with their nuclear weapons program and have continued to press the issue so loudly even as United States tries to keep a low profile, precisely in order to help their "ally" Iraq at the United Nations. So far, I think they have been notably successful.

[Arrian]

I agree with most of your post, except characterizing Iraq as NK's "ally." NK did what it did because they figured they would benifit. I don't think they had any intention of helping Iraq. They saw an opportunity and siezed it.

-Arrian

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


There's a difference between a proxy and a "puppet."
You can bet when this is resolved, the PRC will have gained in the arrangement.

And how exactly would that happen?

So China's intelligence organizations were caught completely by surprise that their neighbor and subsidy partner was developing a nuclear program before the Agreed Framework, and that they continued one after.

North Korea is a thorn and an embarassment to China. I hardly think that China would want American troops fighting on their borders and an Japan armed with nukes.

And how are those starving refugees supposed to make it north? Or is the DPRK going to invade in that direction? How many refugees went north when those millions starved?

Incidently, there already ARE hundreds of thousands, if not millions of North Koreans in China, many of them having swum across the Yalu river and hiding in the homes of ethnic Koreans in that region.

And a China which is not disinterested in becoming more and more of a major power globally, nor are they interested in simply being an agent of US policy. The PRC is interested in drawing foreign investment (and technology) because it is the only way to achieve the economic growth necessary to their long-range strategic ambitions of being a global power. That foriegn investment also gives China leverage in other nation's economies, so it's very much a two-way street.

Yes, and allowing an embarassing "proxy" that keeps on pricking its most valuable trading partners is NOT what China would plausibly do to gain foreign investments.

BTW, the DPRK has far more use for nukes as a sales commodity on the global market than they do as offensive weapons against militarily non-threatening nations. Japan has no more capability of threatening the DPRK than does Cameroon.

Japan is also very, very rich, unlike Cameroon.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by DanS
We are coopetitors with China.

What kind of a stupid word is "coopetitor?"

Originally posted by DanS
I interpret China's inaction as being caught flatfooted.

In what sense? IIRC, the PRC is not involved in the 1994 agreement, so there's no loss of face there.

[Zero]

Originally posted by GePap
optimus2861:

The fact that the Chinese, Japanses, and S.koreans all eye each other more than the DPRK is why the US attempt to get some sort of unified front against the North will in the end fail, and the US will be forced to talk to the DPRK.

Agreed!~

[Drake Tungsten]

And how are those starving refugees supposed to make it north? Or is the DPRK going to invade in that direction? How many refugees went north when those millions starved?

There is already a sizeable number of North Korean refugees in Manchuria, MtG.

After having read this thread to this point, I do not believe that Japan would arm themselves with nuclear weapons even if they were "permitted" to do so by United States.

The issue of a nuclear Japan is hardly as clear cut as MtG has portrayed it. The older generation is indeed as pacifistic and anti-nuclear as he has said, but the younger generations are increasingly fed-up with Japan's second class status and want Japan to become a "normal" nation. Combine this changing attitude with a sufficient threat from North Korean nukes and who knows what will happen.

North Korea is a thorn and an embarassment to China. I hardly think that China would want American troops fighting on their borders and an Japan armed with nukes.

Agreed. All North Korea does is draw American attention and power to East Asia, which is the last thing China wants. There's no benefit for the Chinese in a nuclearized Korea.

[DanS]

What kind of a stupid word is "coopetitor?"

Cooperator + Competitor. A game theory term. Mainly used in the context of a non-zero sum game, such as we have here.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Arrian
I agree with most of your post, except characterizing Iraq as NK's "ally." NK did what it did because they figured they would benifit. I don't think they had any intention of helping Iraq. They saw an opportunity and siezed it.

-Arrian

Arrian, I think there has to be some other explanation for the constant and seemingly unprovoked increase in rhetoric from North Korea. True, they could be acting with complete independence from Iraq. But it is also possible that they are trying to keep one of their friends in power by using these tactics.

There also a real posibility that if the UN does authorize war agaiinst Iraq and if the US is engaged in combat with Iraq, North Korean will choose this moment to see if the US can actually fight a two-front war. They must realize that if they are ever going to conquer the South, attacking while the US is fully committed elsewhere would be the best chance they will ever have.

[Arrian]

Not that I consider NK's leadership to be entirely rational, but attacking SK would be a blunder of mythic proportions, and I think the NKs know it. They could probably cause a lot of damage, but they would get stomped on in the end. Nah, this is a blackmail operation, which they have used with success in the past, and will continue to use. Because it works.

-Arrian

[mindseye]

Japan has no more capability of threatening the DPRK than does Cameroon.

Japan is also very, very rich, unlike Cameroon.

Wait - I've got it!
How about we let Japan buy the nukes from North Korea!

Added bonus: it would now be China's problem!

[Arrian]

[mindseye]

I have to agree with MtG's outlook regarding China's role. Those guys in Beijing aren't stupid. They're Communist Party leaders, they are hardball politicians. If they can, by a little judicious inaction, indirectly harm their future global opponent, at little cost to themselves, you can pretty safely bet they will smilingly take advantage of that opportunity.

They may not seek out such a situation, but they won't be stupid should something advantageous fall into their laps.

I'm afraid I can't buy any notion that China is too busy "looking inward right now" to take advantage of such an opportunity. Has the EP-3 "Spyplane" Affair already been forgotten? .

My favorite was last week's repeating of Beijing's position that the problem should be solved through dialog between the relevant parties." Having been responsible for NK's survival in the Korean War, it's hard to imagine many parties more relevant than China.

[DanS]

"I'm afraid I can't buy any notion that China is too busy "looking inward right now" to take advantage of such an opportunity."

I was referring to the very recent transfer of power. Just as Washington is preoccupied with Iraq right now.

You can see their disengagement with Iraq and more broadly the "war on terror". They have plenty of opportunity to goatfvck the US on Iraq, and have not done so. Russia has done a lot more of it.

"Having been responsible for NK's survival in the Korean War, it's hard to imagine many parties more relevant than China."

Agreed.

[mindseye]

I was referring to the very recent transfer of power. Just as Washington is preoccupied with Iraq right now.

Oh, now I see. In that case I agree! When the leadership changes here (perhaps like anywhere), a lot of things are put "on hold".