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If a rival faction probes you do you know about it if it was successful?
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Yes. A pop-up will usually come up saying something along the lines of "Drone activity increased at XXXX" or "Researchers assassinated at XXXX, we lost XXX research points." Though it won't tell you who did it unless the team was caught.
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For that matter, as a human player are you informed when you're framed by another faction or if someone 'bribes' a faction into a vendetta?
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Yes to the first part. Though unless the framing was
unsuccessful and the perpetrator was caught it doesn't tell you who did it.
For the second part, no. In fact I'm not even sure that the AIs CAN bribe each other to attack you. The closest they seem to come to that is "Combining forces" in a Pact against someone....but I'm not entirely sure about that.
There are lots of ways to explain AI's spontaneously going Seething on you. SE changes, rankings, who you're friends with....
And incidentally, I've had almost exactly the same experience with Morgan that you did.
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Can the AI use probes to frame another faction with the human player?
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I'm
pretty sure that it won't. Though it will probe other AIs and frame you for it, as I mentioned before...