So, what's your personal stake in the coming war

[Rufus T. Firefly]

A comment on another thread (jimmytrick answering David Floyd -- I'll let you imagine the rest ) got me thinking about this question: how many people here are connected to people who might die in Iraq? I was struck by the fact that I know absolutely no one who could die in the war (except maybe me; Saddam's got missles that can reach Ankara ), and wondered how unusual that was. I've made it a poll, and apologize if I've left out options that fit your situation.

[DRoseDARs]

First to vote, first to post

I'm in the 18-25 year old bracket, though I doubt the draft will be instated anytime soon. A gentleman 'bout my age in the Architecural program at my college with me is in the Nevada National Guard. He believes he might be called into active duty, though probably not frontline combat.

[KrazyHorse]

Nothing; even if Canada would actually send troops (possible, but looking less and less likely) I don't know anybody who would be sent.

[Oerdin]

I just got out of the Army last year so I have several good friends who are going to the gulf.

[Az]

I might have to endure a ballistic missile attack.

[KrazyHorse]

Only if we're lucky.

[Az]

you're such a meanie.

[Pekka]

They don't let me go.. "#(/&="##rs.

[Eli]

Originally posted by Azazel
I might have to endure a ballistic missile attack.

*joins the club*

[Richelieu]

I bought some Exxon shares. Lets get on with this!

[Skanky Burns]

Originally posted by Frogger
Nothing; even if Canada Australia would actually send troops (possible, but looking less and less likely) I don't know anybody who would be sent.

EDIT: There, much better now.
Still, its unlikely that Australian troops will see action in Iraq - considering the distinct lack of support the war is getting over here.

[Az]

I bought some Exxon shares. Lets get on with this!

[KrazyHorse]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2686905.stm

[Goingonit]

I don't know anybody who could be sent.

[Locutus]

I will have to take a lot of days off from work to protest

[ThePantaloonDog]

I'm in the Coast Guard and will most likely go to a cutter in 4 months. Right now I'm putting in for the West Coast. Since I'm an EOIT (Engineering Officer in Training) I will most likely go on one of the larger cutters. Right now they're sending 378' cutters (which are large cutters for us anyway) so there is a chance I could go.

[Adam Smith]

There's also the American taxpayers who will foot the bill for this little adventure. (Which is not to minimize the imapct on those who may be going in harm's way. )

[Bereta_Eder]

I'm caring more abouit the inocent civilians who would be killed to tell you the truth.
US soldiers are soldeirs and they are attacking.

[Solly]

Bugger all.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

No chance for me unless the terrorist who would kill me here in UK became one during the attacks. So no cahnce really.

But check this out:

By Eric Boehlert



Jan. 22, 2003 | They are scenes of chaos from a paranoid's nightmare: The U.S. and its allies attack Iraq and the country splinters into warring factions, trapping the invaders in a quagmire. Hordes of refugees flee from the carnage, toward closed and militarized borders. Rulers in neighboring nations face mass unrest. Al-Qaida feeds off runaway anti-Western sentiment in the region and mounts new terrorist attacks. When it seems that things cannot get worse, perhaps Saddam launches a chemical or biological attack. Perhaps the U.S. goes nuclear.

We are drawn to worst-case scenarios, even as we know we should not trust them. In this case, however, the visions are sufficiently plausible that even sober, experienced analysts are discussing them openly. On paper, the pending war with Iraq looks like a walk -- certainly, that's how hawks in the Bush administration see it. Since the last battle with Iraq, Saddam's arsenal has shrunk while U.S. forces have expanded tenfold. But the goal is different this time, and the stakes for Saddam and others in the conflict are life and death. For those reasons, the experts cannot dismiss out of hand the doomsday scenarios where war spins out of control on several fronts, even if most people don't want to ponder them.


In 1991, everything was different. The U.S. was committed only to driving Saddam's forces out of Kuwait. Thirty Arab nations signed off on the deal; though it still seems improbable, troops from Syria fought alongside American soldiers. But this time the U.S. is committed not only to ousting a sitting dictator from power but also to occupying a vast Persian Gulf nation for months, if not years, despite potentially furious opposition across the Arab world.

The unknowns are many. By far the biggest is what happens if Saddam really is the madman the Pentagon has painted him to be, and whether, as he watches his forces get pulverized by U.S. troops pounding their way toward Baghdad, he decides to unleash a chemical or biological attack on American forces.


"He's going to use every last drop he's got because he can't take them with him," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a nonprofit defense policy group based in Alexandria, Va. "Saddam wants his own chapter in the history books."

Odds are slim that his chemical or biological attacks, riding on the back of Iraq's rickety arsenal, would penetrate the U.S. or Israeli air defense and find their targets. But if they did, the loss of life could be massive.

"What would the U.S. response be if in half a day we lost 10,000 men" to a biological weapons attack? asks John Voll, a professor of Islamic history at Georgetown University. "I suspect our military aircraft have tactical nuclear weapons capability, and we'd use them. The target would be Iraqi forces, 2 or 3 thousand in a lump sum, standing between U.S. troops and Baghdad. The strikes would perform the function of carpet bombing with napalm."

Defense analyst Pike agrees that the nuclear option, while clearly on the fringe of possibilities, cannot be ruled out. He suggests that war planners "probably have a number in their heads [of mass casualties] before we'd use nukes."

In December, the White House made clear that it had not ruled out using nuclear weapons if Saddam struck first with a weapon of mass destruction. "Bush is much closer to provoking a situation in which nuclear weapons are actually used than [Cold War era president] Ronald Reagan ever was," says Pike.

Even without a catastrophic battlefield exchange, the United States' troubles might not begin until after it defeats Saddam. As is becoming increasingly clear, the U.S. military is preparing to establish an open-ended "occupation" of Iraq, as it did in Japan and Germany after World War II, with exiled Iraqi opposition groups no longer in line to set up democratic governments inside the country anytime soon.

Administration hawks insist that's OK because U.S. troops will be met by cheering Baghdad throngs grateful to be liberated from Saddam's clutches. But, says Voll, that rosy scenario has a grim flip side: A long-running, intifada-type rebellion erupts in cities across Iraq, and the United States and its allies are forced to control the angry local masses, much as Israel has to do in the West Bank. And instead of monitoring 2 million or 3 million Palestinians confined to a small region, the U.S. would be overseeing tens of millions of potential Iraqi radicals spread throughout that country.

At the same time inside Iraq, three distinct groups (Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds) who have been living in an uneasy truce under Saddam's dictatorial rule may try to break away from Iraq in the wake of his demise, adding to more chaos for the United States. It was precisely that fear of permanently fracturing Iraq that stopped the administration of Bush's father from sending U.S. troops to topple Saddam at the end of the Gulf War.

Shiite Muslims make up the majority inside Iraq, yet they have been ruled and oppressed by Saddam's Sunni Muslim Baath party for decades. Open friction between the two groups could seriously destabilize a post-Saddam Iraq. Meanwhile, in the north, Kurds may seize the opportunity to create a separate republic. If the U.S. doesn't want a splintered, Lebanon-ized Iraq, its troops will have to move in and quell Kurdish ambitions. Turkey, fearful of mass refugees storming its borders and of an independent Kurdish state being established next door, would demand that the U.S. take action.

None of that would play well in the Arab world. "A U.S. occupation becomes less popular the longer it lasts," says Chris Toensing, editor of the Middle East Report, a nonprofit quarterly publication. "It could certainly serve al-Qaida's interest, because the longer it lasts, the more it bolsters arguments in the Middle East that the war is really against Islam, it's about grabbing oil, and that the colonial West doesn't want Muslims to control their resources."

In other words, a war against Iraq, the stated goal of which is to battle terrorism, might simply fuel resentment and lead to more radical attacks against the U.S.

Terrorists have already signaled their intentions. "Any attack against Iraq will be answered by resistance everywhere, and American interests everywhere will be targeted," a senior leader of the radical Palestinian group Hamas warned last week at a pro-Saddam rally held in Gaza. "We say that all American targets will be open targets to every Muslim, Arab or Palestinian." On Monday, a gunman shot two Americans near a U.S. military base in Kuwait in what officials have labeled a terrorist attack.

Discussing Iraq with the Washington Post recently, French President Jacques Chirac warned that the Middle East's rampant resentment toward the West is "a ticking time bomb that will explode."

One flash point could be Pakistan. Since Sept. 11, Gen. Pervez Musharraf has walked a tightrope between cooperating with the U.S. and appeasing his population, 69 percent of whom have a negative opinion of America, according to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center. "If there is a high-profile occupation of Iraq, one government that could fall is Gen. Musharraf," says Voll. "The best-case scenario there would be chaos. The worst-case scenario would be an anti-American regime fully committed to opening war with India and liberating Kashmir." Both Pakistan and India have nuclear capabilities, Voll notes.

As for the often-stated goal of creating a democratic Iraq, that too could go badly in unpredictable ways. If the Iraqis were given a genuine voice in a post-Saddam government, the majority might vote to elect a Shiite ayatollah as their leader, who might promptly sign a mutual defense pact with the Shiite majority in Tehran. For decades, Washington has worked from the assumption that America's best interest lies in those two Shiite nations not becoming allies, since it was the Shiites in Iran who launched the Islamic revolution during the late 1970s and overthrew America's longtime ally, the shah.

And then there's the oil. Former CIA analyst Robert Ebel suggests in a worst-case war scenario, the price of oil could jump to $80 a barrel. The current price, already at a two-year high, is $32. Even if the sky-high rates held only for a couple of months, they could wreak havoc on America's already struggling economy.

Still, with the United States' extraordinary advantage in resources, most observers assume the war is likely to go according to script: Faced with an overwhelming show of U.S. force, Saddam's regime collapses in a matter of weeks, if not days.

But war is chaos; inevitably, things go wrong. And Pike thinks people need to at least ponder those possibilities. "I think Americans are practically in denial about what it would look like if this war went badly," he says.

fom Salon.com

this is the worst case scenario, which is still more likely (I hope) than me getting killed by a terrorist in Bracknell
anyway.. if the oil price would shoot to $80+ per barrel, now that would affect all of us.

[Arrian]

I have a friend in the air force who is a navigator on transport planes, so it's entirely possible he will end up flying troops/supplies over there.

That's about it. I have two family members who are in ROTC, but they're not done yet.

That's about it.

-Arrian

[Tolls]

Well, there's connections through the wife...Hereford and all that means they'll already be out there, probably in Iraq as I type. Does the family my brother in law's married into count as not-so-close family?

A friend's brother is RAF regiment, so possibly there as well...

My computer code is already out there I think.

I'll vote for not-so-close family...

[Inverse Icarus]

i happen to own several chemical companies located in Iraq, and i would be ever so sad if my, erm, reserach was destroyed in a swarm of firebombs.

[Midshipman]

You all know me.

There, now you can say that you know someone is is over there. As for how long - all I know is that in September, no matter what - unless things go really, really, really wrong - and they shouldn't - I will be back in the states. I have my orders in hand for three years of college, and then becoming an ensign in the Navy.

[SlowwHand]

Midshipman

Personally, I plan to stake a claim on one of the many unused palaces.

[Chris 62]

Still have quite a few friends who will be involved, and they BETTER do a good job, or they will hear about it.

[David Floyd]

Hmmm. I know someone at work who was activated.

And of course I'm a major victim of the war, seeing as how I'm being forced to pay for officially sanctioned murder.

[Az]

[Panag]

hi ,

personal stake , , lets see , ......

sitting in a bunker playing PTW with some others , .....

have a nice day

[monolith94]

My astrologist told me "it's either you or saddam? one of you has got to go".