State Implosion -- A New Twist In North Korea

DanS · January 26, 2003, 22:09

About a half year ago, The Washington Post had a couple of good articles about the economic reforms in North Korea (mainly a float of the price of rice and other commodities). They didn't track the story for a while, but apparently those policies are in the process of failing...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2003Jan26.html

It certainly gives an interesting take on the timing of all that has happened in the last couple of months with regard to North Korea.

South Korea is scared to death about an implosion--they take a look at Germany and are not encouraged. China seems pretty freaked out about this. The US is acting coy about it all and is delaying. Personally, I think it's time to see this regime fall.

mrboo123 · January 26, 2003, 22:26

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
(...)Personally, I think it's time to see this regime fall.

Yup, North Kearon is more of a theart to the Western civ than Iraq...

DanS · January 26, 2003, 22:30

We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Edit: SK saying they don't want a regime change...

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/20...911603253.html

It would put large strains on SK, but would it be better to stand by while paying a repressive regime to limp along? I think everybody would be receptive to helping SK shoulder the burden. The SK policy seems unprincipled to me.

mrboo123 · January 26, 2003, 22:37

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Yes, you can, I the Brits help (which they will...)

Dauphin · January 26, 2003, 22:40

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
We can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Ahh, but can Bush walk and eat pretzels at the same time?

mrboo123 · January 26, 2003, 22:43

Quote:

Originally posted by Big Crunch
Ahh, but can Bush walk and eat pretzels at the same time?

Now THAT a differnt matter...

Drake Tungsten · January 27, 2003, 01:18

Quote:

Personally, I think it's time to see this regime fall.

Yes it is.

Quote:

It would put large strains on SK, but would it be better to stand by while paying a repressive regime to limp along?

No it wouldn't. Helping the North Korean regime stay in power might be better for South Korea in the short term, but it is a horrible long term policy.

mindseye · January 28, 2003, 12:40

How can this regime go away soon enough? It's like something out of a bad Bond film, complete with evil dictator in unlikely hair and elevator shoes.

The only solution I can come up with is to have Japan somehow buy them out or cushion the fall.

DaShi · January 28, 2003, 12:42

The last Bond film was about North Korea.

ranskaldan · January 28, 2003, 12:47

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
The US is acting coy about it all and is delaying. Personally, I think it's time to see this regime fall.

The problem with the fall, is - what would the fall-out be?

This is a very freaky thing for all the nations around it - Japan, South Korea, China, Russia. Just imagine the millions of millions of refugees pouring across borders and massing themselves in half-rickety boats across the Yellow and Japan Seas, not to mention the missiles that may be launched in any direction.

Frankly I think China or Russia, as traditional allies, should bail North Korea out. Some glances at Chinese online forums show that Chinese popular opinion has turned very sharply against Kim Jong-Il and towards South Korea... and that's China we're talking about. The problem however, is that no one can convince North Korea to carry out the reforms that saved China from a similar fate.

Perhaps the intelligence agency of a certain country can assassinate Kim Jong-Il?

Ned · January 28, 2003, 13:01

Ahh, the benefits of socialism.

As to the economic collapse, now is the time to be tough. No bailouts. We should insist on a SK takover as the price of aid.

Oerdin · January 28, 2003, 13:09

Never saw it.

ranskaldan · January 28, 2003, 13:10

And if a nuke lands squarely into downtown Tokyo?

Oerdin · January 28, 2003, 13:28

The Red Chinese will keep propping up their, some what erratic, puppet while the U.S., Japan, and South Korea plunge head long into implementing the national missile defense system.

That's the out come I'm predicting. No collapse and they get enough aid from the Chinese and Russians to keep that sinking ship afloat for a couple more years...

Urban Ranger · January 28, 2003, 14:03

Quote:

Originally posted by ranskaldan
The problem however, is that no one can convince North Korea to carry out the reforms that saved China from a similar fate.

Last I heard, Kim was trying to set up "special economic regions" like those in China.

Arrian · January 28, 2003, 15:06

Quote:

Perhaps the intelligence agency of a certain country can assassinate Kim Jong-Il?

Would whacking him achieve the desired result, and, if so, does that end justify the means?

-Arrian

Sandman · January 28, 2003, 16:13

The Chinese should force NK to negotiate a reunification treaty with one big condition for the South; no US troops in the united korea.

DanS · January 28, 2003, 21:04

This is a very freaky thing for all the nations around it - Japan, South Korea, China, Russia. Just imagine the millions of millions of refugees pouring across borders and massing themselves in half-rickety boats across the Yellow and Japan Seas, not to mention the missiles that may be launched in any direction.

Yes, I know that there would be millions of refugees, but this would be a much better situation than watching them starve and toiling away in death camps. It's a matter of conscience. I don't want my tax dollars going to perpetuating a regime that makes Hitler look like a boy scout in comparison.

We have a precedent for this. Just as Hungary did for the East Germans, China should not enforce its treaty with NK to repatriate refugees. This would funnel the refugees in one direction, where they can be processed in an orderly fashion.

China could then pass them along by boat to SK. SK is a first world country and is able to handle this. The US should stand ready to help them and do much of the heavy lifting.

That's the way that this government falls without the missiles starting to fly.

ranskaldan · January 28, 2003, 22:40

I don't really get what you mean about the missiles not flying - how would that happen?

DanS · January 28, 2003, 23:21

The US cannot take down this regime, without a nuke landing in Tokyo, as mentioned above.

The NKers have to do it themselves. The only thing we can do is encourage a situation where the threat is internal, not external. Mass migration is one way to undermine the regime from within. It has been successful in the past in similar circumstances.

DinoDoc · January 28, 2003, 23:44

Quote:

Originally posted by Sandman
The Chinese should force NK to negotiate a reunification treaty with one big condition for the South; no US troops in the united korea.

That might set up some interesting scenarios with China, Russia, and Japan as each compete for influence in the power vaccum left behind.

Urban Ranger · January 29, 2003, 00:26

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
We have a precedent for this. Just as Hungary did for the East Germans, China should not enforce its treaty with NK to repatriate refugees. This would funnel the refugees in one direction, where they can be processed in an orderly fashion.

China could then pass them along by boat to SK. SK is a first world country and is able to handle this. The US should stand ready to help them and do much of the heavy lifting.

Can't really do that without huge reprecussions. When news of that spreads, gazillions of NK refugees will flood the border. It won't be anything like a nice orderly steady flow, it will be huge mobs charging around in a chaotic fashion. The bordering towns and provinces will be paralysed by hungry mobs, grinding to a halt. Even in the best case scenario where nobody goes around stealing food, looting and causing generic mayhem, the infrastructure just cannot handle this load.

Ned · January 29, 2003, 00:57

If the leader of SK had any balls, he would offer the high military in the North cushy positions in a united Korea, call for them to overthrow their dictator and reunite with the South.

In the famous words of Ronald Reagan, “Kim Jong Il, why not just tear down that wall?”

ranskaldan · January 29, 2003, 01:35

Quote:

Originally posted by DanS
The US cannot take down this regime, without a nuke landing in Tokyo, as mentioned above.

The NKers have to do it themselves. The only thing we can do is encourage a situation where the threat is internal, not external. Mass migration is one way to undermine the regime from within. It has been successful in the past in similar circumstances.

Well, as UR points out, China for one would NOT voluntarily agree to such a plan.

The problem, as I see it, is with Kim Jong-Il himself. Apparently he is content with ruling a medieval fiefdom that will eventually implode into his face, because he is too scared to save his own ass with reforms (as his large neighbour to the north has demonstrated). In fact, I think this is a problem endemic to all hereditory monarchies - the heirs grow up in a high-place and intensely paranoid of falling from it.

What North Korea needs the most is a leader-change - one that looks like an innocent succession of power. But is there any way to instigate this without creating mayhem in North Korea immediately?

Urban Ranger · January 29, 2003, 01:50

rans,

IIRC, Kim Jong Il has been trying to create reforms - he did attempt to establish a "special economic region" bordering China. Unfortunately, the Chinese businessman he appointed to be head of the region turned out to be a tax evader - among other white collar crimes - so the plan was aborted. I last heard he would try it somewhere else.

Perhaps it's not as easy as it sounds. Although Kim looks like the undisputed leader from the outside, there perhaps exist even more diehard factions within the military that he has to deal with first.

ranskaldan · January 29, 2003, 01:59

Quote:

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
rans,

IIRC, Kim Jong Il has been trying to create reforms - he did attempt to establish a "special economic region" bordering China. Unfortunately, the Chinese businessman he appointed to be head of the region turned out to be a tax evader - among other white collar crimes - so the plan was aborted. I last heard he would try it somewhere else.

He'd better try it somewhere else... before his country crumbles and takes him down with it.

Jon Miller · January 29, 2003, 02:06

most likely the military or the other party leaders get 60 virgins in this life, so they are somewhat not interested in change

Jon Miller

DanS · January 29, 2003, 02:37

The time for special economic regions is loooooong past. He could have tried it 10 years ago.

Re the repurcussions to China of mass migration, this is all true to a point. But it would give a certain amount of control to the situation. The repurcussions could be foreseen and planned for, just as they were in Afghanistan for a similar number of refugees. Does this part of China have less infrastructure than Afghanistan?

Right now, nobody has control over the situation. We don't even know if Kim Jong Il has a realistic end-game. He might be signing checks that nobody's ass can ever cash. This is a much more dangerous situation than a couple of million refugees well provisioned for.

Sikander · January 29, 2003, 06:11

Quote:

Originally posted by ranskaldan
And if a nuke lands squarely into downtown Tokyo?

That means that they only have two left. Three tops.

mindseye · January 29, 2003, 10:49

Quote:

The last Bond film was about North Korea.

Really? That's hilarious! I have to confess that the last Bond film I saw starred Sean Connery.

Art imitates life after all, right?