Old Europe left out in the cold? - Page 3

DanS · January 30, 2003, 21:10

I totally agree with Spiffor. This is all a question about the future leadership of Europe, with Iraq as the background and Anti-Americanism as the oil to grease the wheels.

Whatever the good that the past relationship brought, why did France and Germany plant their flag on territory that they could not keep? It seeems like they set themselves up for failure. Or perhaps they didn't know where the leaders of other top members in the club, like Spain and Italy, stood. Now, Rumsfeld is proven right within a week. Congrats! Good job!

It seems incredible to me that France and Germany think that they can drive the EU in the absence of the UK, Italy, and Spain.

Sandman · January 30, 2003, 21:14

More Blix:

Quote:

Iraq has on the whole cooperated rather well so far with Unmovic in this field. The most important point to make is that access has been provided to all sites we have wanted to inspect and with one exception it has been prompt. We have further had great help in building up the infrastructure of our office in Baghdad and the field office in Mosul. Arrangements and services for our plane and our helicopters have been good. The environment has been workable.

Drake Tungsten · January 30, 2003, 21:17

You left out when Blix said that "simply opening doors is not enough"...

Sandman · January 30, 2003, 21:25

He seems to want the Iraqis to shower him with flowers.

Drake Tungsten · January 30, 2003, 21:28

Quote:

He seems to want the Iraqis to shower him with flowers.

Or actually show him where their illegal weapons are...

DanS · January 30, 2003, 21:31

He seems to want the Iraqis to shower him with flowers.

They should have. It was their last chance to show that they were disarmed.

Sandman · January 30, 2003, 21:40

Hooray for logically impossible conditions! Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence!

The fact that the inspectors have found next to nothing just proves that he's hiding something, doesn't it?

As I said, there's no way for the Iraqis to prove their innocence.

DinoDoc · January 30, 2003, 21:42

Quote:

Originally posted by Sandman
The fact that the inspectors have found next to nothing just proves that he's hiding something, doesn't it?

No, it doesn't. However, the fact that they have yet to provide any real accounting for large stockpiles of weapons is a pretty good clue though.

Sandman · January 30, 2003, 21:49

What does 'real' accounting consist of?

DinoDoc · January 30, 2003, 21:55

Quote:

Originally posted by Sandman
What does 'real' accounting consist of?

It means verifiable.

Ned · January 30, 2003, 22:21

Actually there may be two power struggles going on: a first from France and Germany trying to show their independence from the United States, and then from the Uk, Spain, Poland, et al., trying to show their independence from the France and Germany.

Even if France and Germany come around on this, the strains in America's "alliance" with France and Germany are revealed. Ditto, France and Germany's relationship with the rest of the European Union.

Drake Tungsten · January 30, 2003, 22:31

Quote:

Even if France and Germany come around on this, the strains in America's "alliance" with France and Germany are revealed. Ditto, France and Germany's relationship with the rest of the European Union.

Very true.

This is rather disturbing when you really think about it. A strong transatlantic relationship is in the best interests of all those who support liberal democracy and free-market capitalisim.

Sandman · January 30, 2003, 22:32

How do you verify something does not exist?

Don't forget the third power struggle, Ned, between the people of Europe who don't want a war and their apparently undemocratic leaders.

Demerzel · January 30, 2003, 22:43

Quote:

Originally posted by Ned
Actually there may be two power struggles going on: a first from France and Germany trying to show their independence from the United States, and then from the Uk, Spain, Poland, et al., trying to show their independence from the France and Germany.

Even if France and Germany come around on this, the strains in America's "alliance" with France and Germany are revealed. Ditto, France and Germany's relationship with the rest of the European Union.

I hardly think that the EU will fall apart over this one issue, I think we'll find a common middle ground as we always do and the EU will continue to prosper and offer an alternative large power bloc to the USA.

I think the French and Germans are a little OTT in their anti-American attitudes at the moment but then again Blair's servile attitude stinks big time too. As I said a middle ground of maintaining a good relationship with America ( and naturally Russia & China on the other side ) is essential but blindly supporting/opposing the US should be avoided at all costs.

Ned · January 30, 2003, 22:51

Quote:

Originally posted by Sandman
How do you verify something does not exist?

Don't forget the third power struggle, Ned, between the people of Europe who don't want a war and their apparently undemocratic leaders.

Sandman, I have a feeling that will be worked out at the ballot box. I understand that Schroeder is in real trouble in Germany, for example.

But, just for the sake of argument - suppose the war occurs and goes well. In the last war, US public opinion -- evenly divided prior to the war -- turned decisively in favor after it started and went well. Democrats who had strongly opposed the war had to rely on other issues in the next election.

I don't recall the European public's attitude on the first Gulf War prior to its start. I suspect it was divided as it was in the United States. But today, there seems to be a consensus that the first Gulf War was justified. The same swing in public attitudes my take place if Gulf War II is a whopping success.

Ned · January 30, 2003, 22:52

Quote:

Originally posted by Demerzel

I hardly think that the EU will fall apart over this one issue, I think we'll find a common middle ground as we always do and the EU will continue to prosper and offer an alternative large power bloc to the USA.

I think the French and Germans are a little OTT in their anti-American attitudes at the moment but then again Blair's servile attitude stinks big time too. As I said a middle ground of maintaining a good relationship with America ( and naturally Russia & China on the other side ) is essential but blindly supporting/opposing the US should be avoided at all costs.

Agreed.

MrBaggins · January 30, 2003, 22:53

Just wanted to mention that France and Russia have valuable oil contracts with the current Iraqi regime, which in a post war Iraq will (probably) mean diddly.

MrBaggins

Drake Tungsten · January 30, 2003, 23:36

Quote:

UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- Chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said Thursday he has so far seen no evidence of a promised increase in Iraqi cooperation and that he is still considering Baghdad's offer to return for further discussions on disarmament.

Iraq asked Blix and International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei to return to Baghdad before February 10 to discuss issues the inspectors raised Monday before the U.N. Security Council. Blix and ElBaradei are scheduled to report again to the Security Council February 14.

Blix told the council Monday that Iraq has not fully accounted for its stocks of chemical and biological weapons and has not fully accepted its obligation to disarm under U.N. Resolution 1441.

Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz pledged Monday that his country would cooperate fully with U.N. inspectors but Thursday Blix said he had yet to see any change in the Iraqi stance.

Aziz said Monday that the only remaining issues between weapons inspectors and Iraq are overflights by U-2 spy planes and the private interviewing of Iraq scientists by inspectors.

But in a letter released Thursday from science adviser Gen. Amer al-Saadi inviting the monitoring chiefs to return, Iraq said it wants to "jointly study means of verification in disarmament issues" and to re-establish a "consolidated monitoring system."

Iraq's U.N. Ambassador Mohammed Aldouri delivered the letter to Blix personally Thursday evening, and spent about an hour inside Blix's office. Afterward, Aldouri said he hoped Blix and ElBaradei would return to Iraq.

"It's a question of war," Aldouri said. "We want them to come to Iraq to resolve differences."

But Blix said Thursday there had been no movement on the issues of the scientist interviews or U-2 flights.

"What we have said we need all the time is the presentation of more evidence -- that they have not been taking the questions seriously which were posed in the report with which they are familiar, and we would like to have responses to those questions," Blix said Thursday.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/01/30/spr...rap/index.html

More proof of Iraqi non-cooperation for Sandman and others to ignore...

Thrawn05 · January 30, 2003, 23:51

This is somthing funny I heard the other day on TV. (I'm pretty sure I got the quote right but I won't swear to it).

"France should go in with the US so that they can teach the Iraqis how to surrender." - Fred Barnes

Edan · January 31, 2003, 00:04

Quote:

Originally posted by Thrawn05
"France should go in with the US so that they can teach the Iraqis how to surrender." - Fred Barnes

Iraqi soldiers surrendered to tv crews last time around - I don't think they need any lessons from France.

Spiffor · January 31, 2003, 01:30

Gatekeeper :
I don't know if a poll in bigger countries need more people interrogated to be representative, but in France, a poll with 1000 people is representative of the population at the time it's being made, with a 3% error-margin. (I humbly guess it is the same in Britain, Italy, and about the same in Spain and Germany)

Kramerman · January 31, 2003, 02:14

Quote:

Originally posted by Gatekeeper
Amazing how the popularity of surveys jump among posters when, coincidentally, said surveys *support* the posters' viewpoints. **whistles** Wow, I never realized how a "scientific" poll (generally speaking here) of 1,028 adults could represent the will of any good-sized nation.

A poll-driven world, indeed.

Gatekeeper

indeed

DinoDoc · January 31, 2003, 02:17

Quote:

Originally posted by Sandman
How do you verify something does not exist?

Are you purposefully being obtuse?

Spiffor · January 31, 2003, 02:20

DinoDoc :
Is it obtuse not to believe Iraq restarted its WMD program ?
Hence, is it obtuse to believe there are no WMDs to be found ?

DinoDoc · January 31, 2003, 02:26

Quote:

Originally posted by Spiffor
Is it obtuse not to believe Iraq restarted its WMD program ?

It is quite ignorant to believe that Iraq is incapable of providing a verifiable account of the fate of the weapons we already know about.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2590265.stm

Spiffor · January 31, 2003, 02:33

interesting answer dinodoc. This link should be topped

Gatekeeper · January 31, 2003, 03:28

Quote:

Originally posted by Spiffor
Gatekeeper :
I don't know if a poll in bigger countries need more people interrogated to be representative, but in France, a poll with 1000 people is representative of the population at the time it's being made, with a 3% error-margin. (I humbly guess it is the same in Britain, Italy, and about the same in Spain and Germany)

I've always been suspect of polls, mainly because some of my fellow professionals in the media rely on them too much, IMHO. The 3 percent margin error, however, seems to be something that crosses all borders, because the representative sample size differs just about every time, depending on who's doing the polling. And don't even get me started on polling methods, loaded questions and so on.

I'm not sure what a representative sample for the United States would be.

Gatekeeper

Edan · January 31, 2003, 04:10

Quote:

Originally posted by Gatekeeper

I've always been suspect of polls, mainly because some of my fellow professionals in the media rely on them too much, IMHO. The 3 percent margin error, however, seems to be something that crosses all borders, because the representative sample size differs just about every time, depending on who's doing the polling. And don't even get me started on polling methods, loaded questions and so on.

I'm not sure what a representative sample for the United States would be.

[Math Rant

on]

Actually, margin of error tends to be relatively constant w/ regards to the sample size and regardless of the population (as long as the population doesn't get too significantly low).

So if I am doing a proper scientific poll, and I were to poll 1000 people, I would get about a 3% margin of error (ie, 95% of the times, the response for the entire US would fall within +/- 3%) regardless if the population was 10 million or 500 billion. (The margin of error isn't constant, but the differences are very small despite increasing the population - which was why I said it was about 3%). Obviously, if the population was significantly lower - ie, 2000, the margin of error drops.

Given that the margin of error tends to be about 3% (which tends to be low enough to be of use) for 1000 no matter what group it's representing, most companies don't see the need to go to, say, 2000 polled, which would narrow the margin of error only down to 2%, and the further you increase the number polled, the less the benefit.

The problem, however, is in performing a scientific poll - one in which those selected to be polled are a good representative sample of the population as a whole, and that the questions themselves introduce no bias. So you could poll 1 million americans and not get a result the reflects the real US because you ended up only interviewing republicans, or only democrats, or only people named Bob - none of which would be a good representative sample of the population as a whole.

[Math Rant off]

TheStinger · January 31, 2003, 04:22

Why is Blair, if he genuinely agrees with Bush, servile, or do you just have to disagree on principle to show your independant

HershOstropoler · January 31, 2003, 04:56

Drake Tungsten:

"America has gone out of its way to involve our European allies in the decision-making process on Iraq, but our efforts have been repaid with a knife in the back."

You're joking, right? The kittykawks in the admin have wanted this war for a long time, and they do not take opposition very well. We got about 3-5 different excuses for invading Iraq over the years. So, unless you consider "shut up" as an invitation to the decision-making process...

""Old Europe" has already lost the respect of the American government and now it seems that some European governments feel the same way."

I knew the "old europe" phrase was so brilliantly stupid that it would catch on immediately.

Dan:

"It seems incredible to me that France and Germany think that they can drive the EU in the absence of the UK, Italy, and Spain."

You really need an introduction into EU law and politics.

Stinger:

"Why is Blair, if he genuinely agrees with Bush, servile,"

I can't for heaven's **** imagine that Blair genuinely agrees with Bush.