AU207: Big Planet - Strategy, Spoilers and Comments

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Nor Me
Catt, there are advantages to playing the Russians.

The Russians should be (not sure, not enough personal experience) the best civ technology-wise (in the hands of the human player). If you're wanting to be ahead in tech at all parts of the game, the Russians are for you. If there were not so much rough terrain and so many nearby Expansionists civs on this map, I imagine the Russians would have been the dominant civ choice. Three-step plan:

1. Scouts
2. Trade techs and contacts
3. Libraries, Universities


Dominae

[badams52]

MS: I loved your recap. Poetic and brief with ample images allowing us to get the feel of the flow of your game. Can't wait to hear the rest of them and to see if there are any domination victories.

[Catt]

Originally posted by Nor Me
Catt, there are advantages to playing the Russians.

Do you mean the expansionist trait? I had thought that goody hut outcomes worked in a very screwy way -- a way in which the Russians would have no greater chance at a settler than would any non-expansionist civ (provided barbs were not a possibility). I'm only extrapolating from Firaxian comment at CFC, but MIke B.'s comments seemed to indicate that the odds for any given goody hut outcome are the same for every civ -- but if the chosen outcome is not allowed (barbs for an expansionist civ, for example), then the RNG just chooses again among all possibilities with the same percentage chances -- in other words, the odds of "good" outcomes is not improved for expansionist civs, but such civs get to "roll the dice again" if a prohibited outcome is selected. Since barbs were impossible from my goody hut, I assumed I had as good a chance as any expansionist civ for a settler from that hut. Am I mistaken?

We're sill waiting for more details on Nathan's game. Only replay screenshots won't show how he was able to build enough roads to use War Chariots against so many civs.

Arrian's as well, I guess -- seems he was preparing a massive breakout north through German lands as well (I forgot when I posted above).

Catt

[Chemical Ollie]

Originally posted by Theseus
Ugly...

Olaf, do you want to post a save from a key juncture or a tough spot?

BTW, I am still working away at this one... it may take me a month or more, but at some point I will do an, ummm, interesting AAR. My poor computer can barely handle it.

A save is attached. I thought this game would be lag-free on my new 2.5 GHz monster machine, but the AI turns actually takes a minute or two.

[Chemical Ollie]

Originally posted by badams52

...
Olaf, I don't know what to say except, U-G-L-Y, you ain't got no alibi, you ugly.

Maybe you could give peace a chance?

OK, I did. It helped me out of the current situtuation, but it won't win the game for me. I need more Lebensraum!

But wait... What's those yellow spots that just appeared in the bottom left corner of my minimap? A stone age tribe full of holy smoke!

[Konquest02]

I am proud to announce that my plan worked as announced. My cavalry rolled over the German defenses and secured both objectives relatively early.

My GA is over and it has been almost a nightmare for me. It was triggered through a musketeer victory and troughout all of my GA, I had to struggle against WW. A bad thing... So I made peace as soon as I could and still enjoyed more than half of my GA as I am supposed to do.

I did not get a leader in my war... Looks like I'm gonna have to build my palace in Berlin the hard way... Can anybody lend me a leader from their game?

--Kon--

[Nor Me]

Olaf, I looked at your save.

I see the problems. I could certainly offer plenty of advice on how to avoid your situation.
What did you do? Reputation is a little bit more important with 16 civs.
It's certainly the worst position I've seen with a decent size empire on Monarch

However the interest lies with how to win from there.

Conquest looks risky as you'd need a lot of gold for alliances. But if the AIs are peaceful you might lose diplomatically.

I'd be aiming for an AC victory but it's not going to be easy. I'd certainly be aiming to get Industrialisation and Sanitation before Replaceable Parts. And building a few more workers now would certainly pay off.

[Catt]

As I mentioned earlier, I played PTW, Emperor, standard rules, and drew the French. It’s been a long time since I played a huge map, and I decided to play this AU game as a personal experiment on two levels: (1) huge map; and (2) peaceful, with little or no offensive expansion. I’ve been experimenting with peaceful games for the last few months, and I thought this would be a great test game after having drawn France – IMHO, a great “peaceful” civ and a pretty darn good civ all around.

After moving my settler on turn one, I was very pleased to find myself with a start position offering a cow on plains, several plains, several forests, several flood plains and a bonus grassland. Paris could be a very productive city for a long time, but could also make a fine (not perfect) settler pump. I decided then and there that if I could find a great city location close by, I would try a strategy that I’ll call “Joan’s Grandeur” – using my second city as a wonder machine, seeking to establish a truly phenomenal city that would dazzle the world – the intent was not a one-city cultural victory or any other “gameplay strategy” so much as it is a smaller version of Arrian’s UP concept. A suitable location was found to the southeast, near a cow on grasslands, a fur colony, many rivers and mountains – Orleans would have the food and the shield-availability to grow large and be a powerhouse. Immediately upon it’s founding, Orleans began constructing the Pyramids as French research focused on Writing on a 40-turn basis. Paris would produce settlers, the occasional worker, and early exploring units.

Lesson: The French are a great early wonder machine – not only can you begin the Pyramids right away if you choose, but with Masonry as a starting tech, you have immediate access to a palace pre-build.

Early exploration brought me into contact with Babylon and Germany – as more of the map became known, I somewhat rued my decision to play peacemonger – quite clearly (IMHO) the right play is to manhandle the Babylonians early, either very early for the respawn goodies or later if GA timing or Babylonian wonder-building makes more sense – in any event, I’m convinced that the correct play is to eliminate Babylon and secure the southern flank. Oh well, I would honor my peacemongering decision despite the situation.

In 2800 BC I traded Alphabet to each of Germany and Babylon and received in return Bronze Working, Pottery, Ceremonial Burial and 10 gold. Paris immediately built a granary. In 1990 BC, with contact with the Zulu, I again traded Alphabet (and 116 gold) in exchange for The Wheel and Warrior Code. Soon thereafter I traded contact with the Babs to the Zulu in exchange for contact with the Americans. Soon thereafter, the scourge of war broke out for the first time on our continent – I learned that America had declared war on a people known as the Mongols.

I eventually established contact with both the Mongols and the Japanese – I was very surprised at the technology rate – even with early contact with 7 civs, the research rate on this huge map seemed slower than my standard map games (must be because of world size tech costs and slower devaluation since contact is limited to half the world?). Alphabet proved to be very valuable – with not one single commercial civ on our landmass, I was able to trade my way to tech superiority in the ancient age, riding on the back of Alphabet, and then 40-turn research on Writing and Literature.

Lesson: Try to become aware of each neighboring civ’s starting technology. Even before I had contact with all civs, I knew that both the Japanese and the Mongols were close by – lack of a competing commercial civ made my Alphabet tech very valuable early on.

With (1) the discovery of Literature, (2) the trade value of that tech and the previously exploited value of Alphabet and Writing; and (3) the massive pile of gold stacking up in my treasury, I elected to turn off research until I could research the Republic. I was essentially maintaining a tech lead / parity through trade and tech purchases. In 950 BC, Orleans completed the first of its many wonders:

[Catt]

Orleans next began constructing the Great Library – but I feared that a delayed wonder cascade would enable someone else to complete it first. I had been forced to trade Literature before the Pyramids were completed as I could tell that one AI was researching it as well (the price offered in trade was declining turn to turn, and I didn’t want someone else to discover the tech and flog it to the world).

With a dozen or so turns to go on the Great Library, Japan completed the wonder. I had acquired both Construction and Monarchy in trade, and so could switch to either the Great Wall or the Hanging Gardens. I elected to use some of my hoard of gold to investigate each AI city building the Great Library – it became apparent that the Zulu would be able to switch to the HG and beat me to it, so I elected to change my GL build to the Great Wall – not exactly a helpful wonder to France, but at least I wouldn’t lose the shields and could add something of interest to the magical city of Orleans.

Lesson: Information is power. If at all possible, establish embassies with rival civs as soon as practicable – not only does it give you a view of their minimap locations, it also enables: (1) knowledge of capitol city productivity possibilities (if I see 5 cows on grassland, I know I’m never going to outrace that particular city to a wonder without a substantial tech lead); (2) specific city investigation; and (3) diplomatic agreements and alliances. Without investigating cities, I would have switched to the HG, and lost both it and the Great Wall to a wonder cascade.

My peaceful expansion continued, although my REXing was slowed significantly by the decision to set aside Orleans as a wonder factory – my second city was producing neither settlers nor military units for pacification and defense. Babylon, despite its being pinned to the south, was able to expand sporadically past my borders. Taking my peacemongering to an extreme, I would allow Babylonian units to trek across my lands without demanding they leave – though I secretly hoped for a Babylonian declaration of war so I could “clean up” my surrounding territory a bit, I would do nothing at all to provoke it. I resolved to allow Babylonians free passage (but not the efficiency or trust of a formal Right of Passage) until such time as such trespassing was manifestly of hostile intent. Babylonian cities began appearing near French settlements.

I was able to block the two chokepoints to the northwest and northeast, so Babylon couldn’t move into Zululand nor the jungles south of Berlin. I set my eyes on such jungles – not only did I covet the spice colonies therein, but I calculated that the jungles offered a good chance of finding both coal and rubber, and with my industrious workers could be quickly cleared for a very productive second core.

Orleans completed Sun Tzu’s Art of War in 510 AD and began a pre-build for JS Bachs. Sistine was already under construction elsewhere and I believed I would lose Sistine to the wonder cascade of Sun Tzu’s. I ignored Leo’s Workshop.

Lesson: Effectively “breaking” wonder cascades at the right times is critical to your ability to claim certain wonders for yourself. I did a fairly poor job of it in this game, partially due to excessive beer consumption and partially due to a very short palace pre-build – with my very limited expansion, the palace build was frequently far shorter than I would otherwise have hoped.

After the discovery of Map Making and subsequent deployment of French galleys, I was able to circumnavigate our landmass and then begin the first tentative explorations of the dangerous seas and oceans in circa 500 AD. I knew other empires existed, for travelers told of the genocide of a people known as the Indians across the seas. After two or three losses at sea without even the hint of land, and given that the my discovery of Astronomy and Navigation were near at hand, I elected to abandon further suicide missions and wait for the proper technologies. This minimap shows a few suicide galley “vapor trails.”

[Catt]

As France prospered and continued to lead the known world in technology advances, war occasionally flared up at home. I maintained Right of Passage agreements with all known civs except the Babylonians – I was not going to be overly solicitous with Hammurabi but again I would not insist on absolute territorial integrity. Though others occasionally requested France to join in a military alliance, I refused. During France’s race through the “peaceful” Middle Ages technologies, I managed to build JS Bach’s Cathedral, Smith’s Trading House, Magellan’s Voyage, Shakespeare’s Theater, and Newton’s University (all but Smith’s and Magellan’s in the city of Orleans). But amidst such peaceful prosperity the distant Mongols had the audacity to demand knowledge of Banking – upon my refusal, the Mongol horde declared war in 970 AD. After almost 5000 years of peace for France, war was upon us. French diplomacy was called upon to defend the homeland, with outstanding results.

Lesson: Diplomacy is often a better defense than unit superiority.

[Catt]

As war raged far to our northwest, the discovery of Navigation allowed for wider exploration. In 1050 AD I discovered the “new world.” Sadly, the new world was as embroiled in widespread warfare as France’s own home continent.

[Catt]

The period of 970 AD to 1160 AD was an auspicious one for France. From the moment of the Mongolian declaration of war in 970 AD, France completed numerous wonders, one of which, Smith’s Trading Company, launched a French golden age in 1030 AD. France had also made contact with the new world and learned that it enjoyed a technology lead. The Koreans and the Arabs seemed to be doing well in the new world, but they too trailed France. During this time I also elected to relocate the French capitol to our colonies in the former jungles of the northwest. But in order to do so, I was forced to build a temporary city just to bring France’s city count up to 16 (half the OCN) so that I could build a Forbidden Palace! Even without a Forbidden Palace the distant territories had been remarkably productive – the decision to relocate the French palace was founded on two principal beliefs: (1) eventually Babylon would declare war and France would possess the southern territories (and a well-place FP would help in the reconstruction), and (2) a relocation north might induce one or more German cities to join France – in particular the German city of Bonn which had been founded one turn before the French city of Grenoble, and which was encroaching on what I felt to be France’s proper territory. With careful timing, Orleans completed the Forbidden Palace just one turn before the Palace itself was constructed in Dijon. Finally, in 1160 AD, France became the first civilization to discover the Vikings isolated to the south – the poor Vikings were still Despotic, stuck halfway through the ancient age without having discovered even Literature. Thus began the French tradition of trading a far outdated technology to Ragnar Lodbrok every 20 turns in exchange for a supply of incense.

(the circled ruins are the temporary city built and then disbanded into workers solely to reach the magic number of 16 for the FP build).

Lesson: An early Forbidden Palace can do wonders for an empire. I delayed my FP for so long out of curiosity – not due to game reasons – my empire would have been more powerful with an earlier FP and there really are very few reasons to delay an FP build for any length of time as I did here. As it was, I was very surprised at the ability to maintain a tech lead with just less than half the OCN and without two functioning cores!

[Catt]

After 20 turns of warfare with the Mongols (having never seen a Mongol unit) France made peace (after ending all active alliances), exacting a small payment from Temujin for our troubles. France continued its peaceful endeavors into the early Industrial Age. With a seemingly significant technology edge, I was lackadaisical about rushing to Scientific Method and the Theory of Evolution. French research proceeded as follows: steam power, industrialization, electricity, free artistry (!), replaceable parts, medicine, sanitation, scientific method, nationalism, Atomic Theory (ToE), Electronics (ToE), Radio, and ten down the Industrial Corridor from the Corporation onwards. The original plan called for a research path to Industrialization and then to Replaceable Parts (for infantry and worker speed), followed by Sanitation and ten Scientific Method. But I dropped back for Free Artistry when it became apparent that a palace pre-build in Orleans couldn’t wait for an AI to discover and trade it. I can’t remember the last time I actually researched Free Artistry (probably the AU “Give Peace a Chance” game) but it proved to be quite a boon (and, I think, an exploit that I won’t employ in the future). With Shakespeare’s Theatre one turn from completion, I traded Free Artistry to Korea for 113 gpt, to the Mongols for 50 gpt, to Japan for 33 gpt, 60 gold and a world map, and to the Aztecs for 1 gpt, 80 gold and a world map. Thus, Free Artistry secured Shakespeare’s for Orleans’ greater glory, and also brought in 200 gpt!

Lesson: The AI’s weakness in tech trading is, IMHO, the single biggest weakness in its peaceful gameplay. Relatively simple human research and trading patterns can significantly set back your foes. This weakness is almost as glaring as the AI weakness at tactical warfare in its warring gameplay.

In 1340 AD Abu Bakr demanded the secrets of Industrialization from me – he was refused and he declared war. Once again French diplomacy went into action, but on a smaller scale. I signed alliances with Abu Bakr’s continent-mates the Celts and the Aztecs, but didn’t seek such alliances from my own neighbors. I actually hoped that Babylon might be induced by the Arabs into declaring war against me, just so I could finally “clean up” the continent, but alas, no, it was not to be.

Some 20 turns later, all alliances having lapsed, we made peace with Abu Bakr – but it seems that French diplomacy had failed to a certain extent – the Arabs were simply too strong for even a two front war (and a cross-ocean war since America or perhaps Korea was at war with the Arabs as well). The French alliance-building served only to weaken the Celts and the Aztecs, and strengthen the Arabs.

Remember how I had relocated the French palace northwest in order to better take advantage of the former jungles and to entice German cities to join France? It took hundreds of years (despite being exceptionally pressured by nearby French culture) but in 1445 AD Bonn finally joined France! A library was rushed in Bonn so that its borders would expand, a native French settler was pushed to the very edges of French culture where Bayonne was founded (promising eventual access to an additional coal resource), and then Bonn was systematically disbanded into German working parties, freeing up workable space for the existing French city of Grenoble.

[Catt]

As happens too often, the game was absolutely won in the Industrial Corridor – with French science having progressed all the way to Radio in the southern branch of the tech tree, al that remained was securing a lead in the Corridor (Corporation through Motorized Transport) and then trading technology to other civs for massive ongoing payments, stymieing all competitor research. At this point in the game however, only two civs (occasionally a third) were in any position to actually buy and pay for techs: Korea and Arabia. France secured the northern branch tech lead with Steel, selling it to Korea for 335 gpt, 190 gold, Espionage, and a world map (all Korea could afford) and to Arabia for 59 gpt, 1900 gold, silks, and a world map. Arabia had previously declared war whilst owing France 200+ gold per turn with more than 10 turns of payments remaining (the demand for Industrialization described above), and I wouldn’t again trade technology for significant gpt from Arabia – no matter, Abu Bakr’s constant warmongering ensured a perpetually weak income stream while Wang Kon’s isolation ensured significant disposable income if I could catch him on the right turn.

Unfortunately, Arab treachery again arose – only 8 turns into our deal, Abu Bakr demanded Combustion and declared war when refused. At the time of this declaration, neither Korea nor Arabia had yet discovered Scientific Method. You can see from the screenshot below that the French enjoy a six or sever tech lead over her nearest competitors (since France already had Radio).

[Catt]

In this instance I did seek alliances against Abu Bakr from much of the world – I did not want any offensive against France that could slow our march to the UN or that could turn friends into foes before a UN vote. I had decided on a UN victory because, despite a brand new (though not state of the art by any means) laptop with 256 MB of RAM and a 1.7 Ghz Intel processor, the pauses between end-of-turns and again between issuing build orders and waiting for movement orders was taking upwards of one minute each – without warfare my game consisted mostly of waiting (with a few build orders and a few worker actions) – I wanted to end it.

I was angry at the second instance of Arab treachery – denying France her silks only a handful of turns after bartering them. I was further inflamed by Arabia’s inducing the Vikings into an anti-French alliance. I had deliberately not asked Scandinavia to join the coalition against Abu Bakr for fear that the Arabs would easily wipe the Vikings off the map – when Ragnar Lodbrok turned his back on 600 years of French friendship and trade (and denied France her incense) I decided to put some of France’s nifty new tools to work for her. Two cities were targeted as France’s first and last offensive military operations: an Arab city on Arabia’s eastern coast which controlled two sources of Dyes and a Viking city in Scandinavia’s northeast which controlled two sources of incense and one source of oil. Transports loaded with infantry and tanks landed nearly simultaneously, and the objectives were easily captured. During the course of fighting in Arabia, numerous tanks were promoted to elite (killing cavalry outside the city) and one finally produced a great leader – France’s first. Napoleon was ferried home, where he arrived one turn before the French discovery of Fission.

A few turns earlier, I had made peace with Scandinavia and even granted them a Right of Passage – despite my recent capture of their city, Ragnar immediately became polite again.

The turn before the UN France enjoyed cordial relations with 6 of the 9 AI civilizations – we were still at war with Arabia, and each of the Celts and the Japanese were annoyed with France’s obvious technological and cultural superiority. Korea remained the closest to France technologically, having researched as far as Scientific Method and Combustion. Arabia was as far along as Scientific Method and Refining/Steel. No other civilization had proceeded past the Corporation.

The vote was anti-climactic: 7 in favor of Joan, 1 in favor of Abu Bakr, and 2 abstentions.

Though Orleans was not the wonder masterpiece I’ve had before (missing the Great Library and Sistine being the biggest flaws), it was impressive. Orleans contained: the Pyramids, the Great Wall, Sun Tzu’s, JS Bach’s Cathedral, Shakespeare’s Theatre, Newton’s University, Hoover Dam, Forbidden Palace, Wall Street, Battlefield Medicine, and the UN. Orleans certainly would have also built SETI, the Internet, and the Apollo Program (and the Genetics wonders if desired). Other French cities built Smith’s, Magellan’s, Universal Suffrage, and Theory of Evolution.

And Babylon never did declare war – and always remained an ugly blot on the French countryside. Peacemongering does have its drawbacks

[Catt]

Finally, a compilation of minimaps from the replay movie to show the development of the world.

Additional game notes and thoughts later.

[Chemical Ollie]

Originally posted by Nor Me
Olaf, I looked at your save.

...
What did you do? Reputation is a little bit more important with 16 civs.
...

They might be pissed beacuse I took out the Babs too late, after contact was made. Furthermore, I didn't gang them up on Japan, so Japan ganged some of them up on me.

But after I made peace with everybody, the clusterfukc really started. Now the world except me is in war with Japan. To bad it is so hard to get to them (bad terrain), otherwise I could had joined in and picked the leftovers.

Perhaps I could become a peaceful lurker and hope they nuke each other to kingdom come? Then I launch my spaceship when they least expect it...

[Dominae]

Originally posted by Catt
Though Orleans was not the wonder masterpiece I’ve had before (missing the Great Library and Sistine being the biggest flaws), it was impressive. Orleans contained: the Pyramids, the Great Wall, Sun Tzu’s, JS Bach’s Cathedral, Shakespeare’s Theatre, Newton’s University, Hoover Dam, Forbidden Palace, Wall Street, Battlefield Medicine, and the UN.

Glancing at your screenshot, I'm reminded at how pitiful even the most wonderful and modern cities look when you take the time to look at their City View. Would it be too much to ask to have buildings litter the landscape, instead of just a few huddled together amongst a sea of Wonders?!? Sigh.

Another peaceful game. Well done Catt. I await your comments in this game, to see if they match some of my own observations concerning Huge maps.


Dominae

[Nor Me]

Originally posted by Olaf Hårfagre
Perhaps I could become a peaceful lurker and hope they nuke each other to kingdom come? Then I launch my spaceship when they least expect it...

Perhaps? It's your only hope. Repent now before it is too late!

Originally posted by Konquest02
Can anybody lend me a leader from their game?

Unfortunately, no . Thinking that too large a tech lead was unnecessary, I used some gold to upgrade 20 knights in order to get some jungle on the Western side.

I declared war on the Babylonians only to see some German warriors, archers and horsemen coming through the jungle in my direction. I quickly bought them in for Monarchy and soon I had a three way war.
Of course, my knights experienced very little counterattack as lower tech enemy units aimed for each other.
I don't know how many elite victories I had but no leaders and it was getting late for the FP when I had to call it a day when the Germans got Feudalism.

I built and researched towards Navigation. In 500 AD, I got a message about the Celts elimination. In 540 AD I met the other civs and the Sistene chapel was built by someone else.
Now it's 550AD and things are going well. I've got Astronomy and Navigation ahead of all other civs. The Mongols have Invention and are the only other civ able to continue a wonder. I traded Banking to the other continent for luxuries. My continent still don't have it.
I'm still 60 turns to the FP but I've got a University in half my cities.

[badams52]

Originally posted by Catt
With Shakespeare’s Theatre one turn from completion, I traded Free Artistry to Korea for 113 gpt, to the Mongols for 50 gpt, to Japan for 33 gpt, 60 gold and a world map, and to the Aztecs for 1 gpt, 80 gold and a world map. Thus, Free Artistry secured Shakespeare’s for Orleans’ greater glory, and also brought in 200 gpt!

This I feel is one of the biggest problems with the AI, which I am of course guilty of exploiting time and time again (except usually with Bach's or Smith's).

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Nor Me

We're sill waiting for more details on Nathan's game.
Only replay screenshots won't show how he was able to build enough roads to use War Chariots against so many civs.

I wish I had screenshots or saves from right before the German campaign, but I wasn't thinking about trying to tell the story in this much detail. On the western front, my effectiveness in settling left Germany with relatively few cities, and I had a road network in place to hook up spices. The screenshot below comes from a save after the end of the German and Zulu wars, but I've marked the German cities with blue circles and marked the extent of the road network as of when the war started. Basically, on that front, my WCs operated as slow-movers (but still with their retreat advantage) over hills while a smaller number of horsemen and swordsmen operated in some places where WCs couldn't. (That front had about four or five of the thirty-plus swordsmen I upgraded from warriors, and the horsemen came from cities that produced 15-19 shields per turn in my GA and could therefore produce a horseman just as quickly as a WC.)

[vulture]

Catt wrote:

I'm only extrapolating from Firaxian comment at CFC, but MIke B.'s comments seemed to indicate that the odds for any given goody hut outcome are the same for every civ -- but if the chosen outcome is not allowed (barbs for an expansionist civ, for example), then the RNG just chooses again among all possibilities with the same percentage chances -- in other words, the odds of "good" outcomes is not improved for expansionist civs, but such civs get to "roll the dice again" if a prohibited outcome is selected. Since barbs were impossible from my goody hut, I assumed I had as good a chance as any expansionist civ for a settler from that hut. Am I mistaken?

Yup, you're mistaken. The effect of 'rolling again' if you get a bad outcome is to increase the probabilities of all good outcomes. The ratio of probabilities of good outcomes remain the same, but they 'expand' to fill up the space taken by the bad outcomes (eg if 2 good outcomes have probilities of 50% and 25%, and the reroll probability if 25%, then the final probabilities for the good outcomes are 66.7% and 33.3%)

If the probability of getting a settler on the first roll (non-expansionist probability) is Ps, and the probability of getting a 'bad' result - and therefore a reroll - is Pr, then the non-expansionist probability of getting a settler is Ps, as opposed to the expansionist probability of
Prob on 1st roll + (prob of having second roll * prob on 2ns roll) + ...
Ps + (Pr * Ps) + (Pr * Pr * Ps) + (Pr * Pr * Pr * Ps) + ...

which, after a little cunning manipulation, becomes Ps / (1 - Pr). Since Pr is greater than 0, (1 - Pr) is less than 1, and so the probability is greater than Ps. So expansionist civs are more likely to get settlers.

EDIT: How hard can it be to spell 'quote'...

[nbarclay]

The screenshot below is from a while before the Zulu campaign. By the time I attacked the Zulus, the Babylonian cities were mine. After dealing with Babylon, I had about half a dozen workers build a road up to the Zulus, and I had all but the last tile or two (the last one being in a Zulu city radius) ready when my swordsmen struck. The German and Zulu road networks were also just a little more developed by the time of the war.

After capturing my first Zulu city, my swordsmen headed east into Zulu territory, while my WCs headed north into German territory as soon as the last little bit of road could be finished. Workers split up to help provide roads to reinforce both groups. Once I had roads tied into the Zulu road network, WCs could join my surviving swordsmen in the main campaign against the Zulus. I also had to keep some swordsmen (later joined by horsemen) in position to deal with Zulu archers attacking across the mountains.

[vulture]

The end of the ancient era

At the end of my war with Babylon I had fewer spearmen than cities, and only two swordsmen, and I hadn't finished covering my subcontinent with cities yet. Plus I still had lots of temples, libraries and marketplaces to build. And was at war with Japan and America (I'd refused a demand from the Japanese, and hadn't been able to afford to bribe anyone else into the war - they'd brought the Americans in).

Since neither of my opponents would talk to me, I focussed on consolidating my territory, with a host of spearmen, a few settlers to capture the rest of the unclaimed land, and a new military force in anticipation of barbarians, Japanese or American forces eventually finding out where I lived, or the next war with Babylon.

Eventually Japan were willing to talk to me, and since they were noticably more powerful they were always going to demand money for peace. I decided to cave in in return for a quiet life. I had to pay off the Americans too. Not a glorious moment in our history. And two turns before completing the Great Library, Japan finished it. I had to change to a library and waste 302 shields. Grrrr. Now I have a grudge.

I finished researching currency, traded for monarchy and republic (I only wanted repulic, but could trade that for monarchy at no extra cost to me, so I did so). Changed straight to republic, and for once got a nice short 2 turn anarchy (due to being one of the smaller countries I expect). Had to go to 10% luxuries, but decided that since there was only one ancient era tech left to research there was no point me researching it, so I went the 0-science route and stockpiled cash to buy it (and rush all those improvements I needed). I also made a concerted effort to take out all the nearby barbarian camps to avoid uprising problems at the end of the era.

At this point Babylon sneaked a town in past the NW chokepoint (via galley), and the Germans planted a town on the spices. I'd been slow to expand in that direction, being content with having the chokepoint. The military buildup was going okay, so I could see a new war with Babylon on the horizon, to prune them back a bit more, tidy up my borders, and get a town nearer the spices once they'd improved it a bit.

As a nice bonus, the zulu town on the chokepoint flipped to me. The zulu then demanded tribute, which I suspected was a prelude to war. I refused, and they backed down. I'm a little wary though, 'cos my (now) 2 towns over there are isolated due to all the mountains, and the zulu managed to sneak a city into the jungles on the peninsula on my side. I anticipate a war over there once Babylon are finished. I also need a war against Germany to get the spices and some of that jungle territory, for better resource odds.

The Second Babylonian war

Babylon had four cities in the south, in a chain along the coast, one in the northeast, and one in the northwest. I wanted to prune the southern cities, and hopefully get the northern ones in a peace settlement. So I sent in two attack groups, one of 4 swordsmen and 2 horsemen, one of 2 swordsmen and 4 horsemen (I'd planned 3 and 3 groups, but got the movement mixed up, and couldn't be bothered to reshuffle them). The first group took their objective easily, capturing 4 workers in the process, who were immediately set to building a road over the mountains to old French territory. The second group had to move an extra turn to get next to their town, and could see extra defenders moving in. When we attacked, there were at least 3 spearmen and 3 bowmen. Two horsemen retreated, and we had 4 victories, but the town refused to fall. If we can take it, it is defended by a river against counter-attacks, and is the only Babylonian source of iron, so this is a key city.

Then I had to stop for the night... The war aims are to take this town, which leaves Babylon with 4 cities, two of which are only going to be producing 1 shield each. Then I can mass forces to capture Babylon and the Lighthouse, leaving one city in the south which would be the new capital, and hopefully let me get the other two towns for peace. Then the one remaining city can be crushed at leasure, 20 turns later.

While this was happening, the Mongols demanded tribute. I refused (as always) and they declared war. I bribed Germany to join the war, since they were three techs behind me and directly between me and the Mongols. I doubt I'll see any Mongols in the next 20 turns, and then can make peace.

Tech-wise Feudalism and Monotheism are now known by some of the AI, and I'm about 6 turns from Engineering, and have a palace pre-build underway for the great middle-ages wonder grab. Naturally I hope to get Engineering first, and trade for the other techs (as always). The combination of the French commercial trait and my markets and libraries coming on line is giving me moderately good research, although I'm still rather small compared to many AI civs, so I'll have to work hard to keep up in tech here.

[Mountain Sage]

Originally posted by Dominae
Yes, nice game Mountain Sage! I knew a peaceful victory was the best way to beat this map, but was hoping everyone would want to warmonger and make things a lot harder on themselves...You were one of the only ones to resist!

Any after-game strategy thoughts?


Dominae

Well, yes.

First of all, the decision to take out the Babylonians early on was critical. I did not want to face one day the Babs, the Germans and the Zulus together or by twos.

Also, it gave me more 'Lebensraum'. See the difference between Catt's game and mine, in respect of the land 'owned' by the French.

Then, even on huge maps, a general startegy of C-T-T-C pays in terms of settlers, production, gold and units (if you have to go to war).

A nice diference of playing style: Catt went for the Pyramids and I went for the GLibrary. It's a tough choice, I admit, but the GL paid very well off.

By the way, I re-played the game until the end of the Middle Ages, going to war against the Germans (2 'short' wars with Knights, wiped out) and the Chinese (4 cities captured with Cavalry).
The difference? I was beaten to the SC by 3 turns, JSBach and Copernicus. My treasure was crappy, I even lost my Tech advance, and all this for 3 Ivory which I could have traded for.

My lesson for huge maps is the following: if you have enough 'Lebensraum', forget conquest wars. It's not worth.

[Mountain Sage]

Originally posted by Catt

With a dozen or so turns to go on the Great Library, Japan completed the wonder.

Catt, great game
It's good to show some people 'the virtues of being a peacenik'

With the French and the Alphabet for free, I almost always beeline for Literature and the GL, but I never trade Literature until a few turns before the completion of the GL, even if I know I miss some great deals.
The GL pays me back then the non-traded Techs handsomely.
But to build a Granary in each city... well, at least you have the gold for it.

Afterwards, I either go for Construction (to get an Aqueduct asap, for size 8-9 cities for further gold and shields for Wonders) or Monarchy (for the HG). In your opinion, which is best?

Now, let's hear how the warmongers fare

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Mountain Sage

Now, let's hear how the warmongers fare

1260 AD, and I'm nine techs into the industrial age (including National and Communism, obtained from AIs). My tech lead over my nearest AI competitor currently stands at four techs, and that's without having built ToE yet. (I'm hoping an AI will research Medicine for me, even if it does mean Cheops has to sit around for a while before he can complete his life's work.) I'm only about 100 gpt away from being able to research Combustion (which I'm just now starting) in four turns out of purely domestic income without ever running a deficit, and I have over 1100 gpt in foreign income from tech and luxury sales, so my capacity for rush building is quite nice. (And I still have a lot of room for my wealth and science generating capacity to grow before the end of the industrial era.) By the way, I'd be in even better shape financially if the Ottomans didn't beat me to Smith's by about four turns.

I'll go into more detail later, but I wanted to shatter any illusions that warmongering doesn't pay on this map.

Nathan

[Mountain Sage]

Originally posted by nbarclay


I'll go into more detail later, but I wanted to shatter any illusions that warmongering doesn't pay on this map. :evilgrin"

Nathan

What is the saying? "To have fish, you must bait them'

Keep on

[Chemical Ollie]

I will not finish my current game. Guess why?

It is spelled P t W

My local computer store sent me an E-mail today to inform me that they had finally got a copy for me (I ordered it in February).

I might replay on the same map, with another tribe. Was Vikings among the options?

[Dominae]

Originally posted by nbarclay
I'll go into more detail later, but I wanted to shatter any illusions that warmongering doesn't pay on this map.

Warmongering always pays in Civ3, but sometimes peace is an equally viable (and less time-consuming!) option.

vulture: hang in there!


Dominae