China's getting nervous

[Willem]

From CNN:

"Of more concern to the LGNS is the perceived expansion of American unilateralism if not neo-imperialism.

As People's Daily commentator Huang Peizhao pointed out last Saturday, U.S. moves in the Middle East "have served the goal of seeking world-wide domination."

State Council think-tank member Tong Gang saw the conflict as the first salvo in Washington's bid to "build a new world order under U.S. domination."

Chinese strategists think particularly if the U.S. can score a relatively quick victory over Baghdad, it will soon turn to Asia -- and begin efforts to "tame" China.

It is understood the LGNS believes the U.S. will take on North Korea -- still deemed a "lips-and-teeth" ally of China's -- as early as this summer."


Full Article

[Spiffor]

Is anybody not getting nervous ?
America's agression on Iraq has been the first true step towards a European diplomacy (by being a founding crisis) oriented in rivalry towards the US; it's making China wanting to modernize its weaponry and awaiting a shwodown against the US sooner; it's uniting the Arabs into a common and crossborder resentment against the US; it's pushing Rogue States to complete their nuclear programs ASAP.

The whole world is getting nervous.

[Messer Niccolò]

... gee really!

everybody should get a cold shower...

[gunkulator]

The US needs China's cheap labor so I imagine they will be safe.

Unlike Iraq, NK otoh is actively trying to pick a fight with the US. Given that NK is nothing more than China's loud yipping lap dog, I can't imagine that the Chinese are not behind it. I say they doth protest too much.

[Willem]

Originally posted by gunkulator
The US needs China's cheap labor so I imagine they will be safe.

Unlike Iraq, NK otoh is actively trying to pick a fight with the US. Given that NK is nothing more than China's loud yipping lap dog, I can't imagine that the Chinese are not behind it. I say they doth protest too much.

Regardless of whether the threat is real or perceived, if China gets it's girdle in a knot, it's not going to bode well for global security in the future. We could very well end up with another cold war.

[DarthVeda]

I wouldn't worry too much about North Korea. They are completely powerless and they know it.

[Willem]

Originally posted by DarthVeda
I wouldn't worry too much about North Korea. They are completely powerless and they know it.

That's what alot of people thought in the first Korean conflict too, until China stepped in. There's no reason why they won't do it again, especially if they're feeling threatened by the US.

[gunkulator]

NK just wants more western aid. Instead of adopting the model used by most of the third world, NK prefers to "ask" by shooting off some missiles and making threats.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DarthVeda
I wouldn't worry too much about North Korea. They are completely powerless and they know it.

In what way? The have the power to break a lot of things even if they would invariably lose.

[DanS]

China sells over $120 billion worth of goods to the US each year, about 1/10th of China's economy. We're not going to fight between us over NK. We may not be on the same side, however.

[gunkulator]

The Cold War is over. The Commie bugaboo is dead. If NK and/or China decide to take SK, there's not much the US can do about it.

[Willem]

Originally posted by Messer Niccolò
... gee really!

everybody should get a cold shower...

I'm not trying to be alarmist, I'm merely pointing out that there will be some ramifications of this war regarding the Chinese that maybe no one has considered yet. And who knows where that will lead?

[Frogman]

I agree with Spiffor, the whole world is getting nervous. If everyone follows the US example, there will be first strikes against any threat, real or percieved. Its just not the move toward peace and security that Bush would have us believe.

[Willem]

Originally posted by gunkulator
The Cold War is over. The Commie bugaboo is dead. If NK and/or China decide to take SK, there's not much the US can do about it.

A cold war has nothing to do with ideology, it's all about one heavily armed country facing down another heavily armed country, without them actually coming to blows. Not a good scenario for global security; all it takes is one mistake on either side for things to get out of hand.

[ruby_maser]

Originally posted by Willem
all it takes is one mistake on either side for things to get out of hand.

Tragedies and crises are usually the culmination of a number of unchecked mistakes... though I certainly do not advocate reinventing the posture that will lead to them.

[gunkulator]

"A cold war has nothing to do with ideology, it's all about one heavily armed country facing down another heavily armed country"

Over what? The last time the US (and UN) intervened in Korea, it was largely due to the insane anti-communist leanings of the day. Now that Nike and the like have discovered that there's practically free labor to be had in China, I can't imagine anyone giving a fiddler's fart about NK or SK. I mean just witness how Bush is completely ignoring the craziness and foaming at the mouth of the NK gov't.

[DaShi]

The Chinese always feel like some one is out to get them. They've developed a huge victim complex. Sad really.

[Willem]

Originally posted by gunkulator
Over what?

So you have a crystal ball? You can clearly see that China and the US will live together peacefully forever and ever? You can safely say that there will never be an incident that will bring these two giants into conflict with each other? Reading that article has brought a number of questions to my mind that deserve consideration, such as:

- If they step up their efforts to modernize their military capability, how long will it be before they become a major nuclear threat?

- What will the US response be if China in the future has a fully modernised, 1.7 million man army? Will they reply in kind so that America will become a predominately military society? How will that effect human rights in the country?

- Will China move away from the US in it's current drive to develop their economy and move instead towards the EU and/or Russia?

- Will we see in the future, Russia and China forming a military alliance in order to counter a percieved threat from the US?

- What will happen in the region if China begins to feel that they are a credible threat to the US in the future? Will they become expansionist and begin following the Bush Doctrine of ridding themselves of potential regional threats?

- What will the response be from India, whose relations with China are shaky at best? Will they too begin to militarize their nation, and if so, how will that affect their conflict with Pakistan?

I could probably find a few more "what if's" but I hope I've made my point.

[muppet]

Originally posted by DaShi
The Chinese always feel like some one is out to get them. They've developed a huge victim complex. Sad really.

After ten years of foreign assignments to China and having accumulated far too many Chinese Visas on my passports I'd have to say most of us misunderstand the Chinese - CNN journalism doesn't help.
They hardly feel anyone is out to get them, and there most certainly does not exist a victim complex.
What is sad really: uninformed perception.

[Willem]

Originally posted by muppet


After ten years of foreign assignments to China and having accumulated far too many Chinese Visas on my passports I'd have to say most of us misunderstand the Chinese - CNN journalism doesn't help.
They hardly feel anyone is out to get them, and there most certainly does not exist a victim complex.
What is sad really: uninformed perception.

So what's your slant on how the Chinese are feeling about all this, and what do you think their long term response will be?

[Jack_www]

well I think that the US will approach NK a different way then Iraq, since they most likely have nukes already and would use them if US attacked them. Right now what I think the US is doing is ignoring NK because they are trying to black mail US so to speak. The Bush administration has said many times that they want China, Russia, and South Korea involved in stop NK. Anyone would now trying to start a war to get NK to stop devoloping nukes would be stupid. People get a little to neverous sometimes.

[gunkulator]

Originally posted by Willem


So you have a crystal ball? You can clearly see that China and the US will live together peacefully forever and ever? You can safely say that there will never be an incident that will bring these two giants into conflict with each other?

Of course not. Two large powers inevitably will find themselves in conflict. Right now though, there is mutual self interest in keeping the status quo.

- What will the US response be if China in the future has a fully modernised, 1.7 million man army? Will they reply in kind so that America will become a predominately military society? How will that effect human rights in the country?

We have only the Soviets to compare with. The US kept most of their freedoms in the Cold War.

Will China move away from the US in it's current drive to develop their economy and move instead towards the EU and/or Russia?

If China becomes very powerful, they will force the rest of the world to take sides. It is up to Russia and the EU whether they prefer to be dominated by the US or China.

Will we see in the future, Russia and China forming a military alliance in order to counter a percieved threat from the US?

Too hard to say.

What will happen in the region if China begins to feel that they are a credible threat to the US in the future? Will they become expansionist and begin following the Bush Doctrine of ridding themselves of potential regional threats?

More like the Stalin Doctrine than Bush's since he was the master of it. Works both ways. China already saw a "threat" in Tibet and we know what happened there.

What will the response be from India, whose relations with China are shaky at best? Will they too begin to militarize their nation, and if so, how will that affect their conflict with Pakistan?

India is a real question mark. So much potential. So many troubles.

I could probably find a few more "what if's" but I hope I've made my point.

Again, it is inevitable that powerful nations will conflict. Our only hope is some sort of one world gov't. As long as human being continue to arbitrarily organize themselves into nation states, we will continue to struggle amongst ourselves. I'm already on record as saying that the EU should politically join the US. Would solve a lot of the petty arguments between us.

[Willem]

Originally posted by gunkulator
Of course not. Two large powers inevitably will find themselves in conflict. Right now though, there is mutual self interest in keeping the status quo.

The thing is though, how much has this current action by the US strained the basis of that self interest? If China begins to see a clear and present danger from the US, how long will it be before they start distancing themselves from a potentially future enemy?

We have only the Soviets to compare with. The US kept most of their freedoms in the Cold War.

But China has a larger population base than either the US and Russia combined. In order for the US to keep on par with the Chinese when they become modernized, they might be hard pressed to come up with enough troops, and might have to take drastic steps in order to do so. Reinstating the draft comes to mind. How will the US public feel if the government begins to feel it is necessary?

If China becomes very powerful, they will force the rest of the world to take sides. It is up to Russia and the EU whether they prefer to be dominated by the US or China.

Yes, kind of my point. With relations strained as badly as they are now, there could be a very real possibilty that it might end up being a US vs. the world scenario.

Again, it is inevitable that powerful nations will conflict. Our only hope is some sort of one world gov't. As long as human being continue to arbitrarily organize themselves into nation states, we will continue to struggle amongst ourselves. I'm already on record as saying that the EU should politically join the US. Would solve a lot of the petty arguments between us.

I agree with you for the most part, however in light of the current diplomatic situation, the EU, or anyone else for the matter, becoming a member of the United States is highly unlikely. It's the UN we need as a global government.

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Willem


The thing is though, how much has this current action by the US strained the basis of that self interest? If China begins to see a clear and present danger from the US, how long will it be before they start distancing themselves from a potentially future enemy?

Why would China want to do that? The U.S. is pouring money into our laps. Are we supposed to say, "No, we don't want it"?

The most profitable course for China right now is maintaining trade and diplomacy. Anything else will cripple China's emergent power - let alone its ability to face off the US.

[Willem]

Originally posted by ranskaldan


Why would China want to do that? The U.S. is pouring money into our laps. Are we supposed to say, "No, we don't want it"?

The most profitable course for China right now is maintaining trade and diplomacy. Anything else will cripple China's emergent power - let alone its ability to face off the US.

Is that the general feeling there or is this just a personal opinion? Are the people angry over what's happening, or are they taking things in stride? Is the country showing signs of wanting to move more towards Europe?

All through the UN negotiations, China has been quietly saying no, and letting France and Germany deal with the verbal sparring. And it seems to me that no one knows exactly how they really feel about the situation.

I don't know alot about China, just some basics, and reading that article is making wonder what to expect from that quarter after all this dies down. What sort of changes can we expect to see in China/US relations?

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Willem


Is that the general feeling there or is this just a personal opinion? Are the people angry over what's happening, or are they taking things in stride? Is the country showing signs of wanting to move more towards Europe?

All through the UN negotiations, China has been quietly saying no, and letting France and Germany deal with the verbal sparring. And it seems to me that no one knows exactly how they really feel about the situation.

I don't know alot about China, just some basics, and reading that article is making wonder what to expect from that quarter after all this dies down. What sort of changes can we expect to see in China/US relations?

Popular sentiment in China is of course fanatic, nationalist, and somewhat idiotic, but that's true for any country in the world.

I can't read the minds of the political leaders in China; but from their policies it is possible to guess the following priorities:

1) Social Stability
2) Economic Development
3) International Prestige

Going against America overtly would hurt #2, which would crash #1, which would then destroy all hopes of #3. This is why they aren't doing it. Instead, they are:

1) Maintaining Tight Control; Trying to Lessen the Rich-Poor Gap; Being Generally Paranoid about Dissident Groups
2) Abandoning Communism; Encouraging Foreign Investment; Undertaking Massive Public Works; Clamping down on Corruption
3) Joining Various Organizations; Building Cordial Relationships with Russia, S-E-Asia, South Korea, Europe, etc; Holding the Olympics, World Expo, etc.

[nationalist]

Originally posted by gunkulator
Now that Nike and the like have discovered that there's practically free labor to be had in China

That's a shame. Hundreds of thousands of American jobs going to exploited people in backwards countries. If it were up to me, Nike would either have to manufacture its shoes in the U.S. or not sell them here at all. That beliefs covers every American company that uses foreign labor to produce goods to sell to Americans.

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by nationalist


That's a shame. Hundreds of thousands of American jobs going to exploited people in backwards countries. If it were up to me, Nike would either have to manufacture its shoes in the U.S. or not sell them here at all. That beliefs covers every American company that uses foreign labor to produce goods to sell to Americans.

Depends on your viewpoint.

From China's viewpoint, this is all very, very good.

[nationalist]

Originally posted by ranskaldan
Depends on your viewpoint.

From China's viewpoint, this is all very, very good.

From the Viewpoint of Chinese leadership, that is. Its also good from the viewpoint of the C.E.O.s. Its bad from the viewpoint of the actual Chinese labor, and its bad for the American workers who have no where to work except for minimum wage, no benefit jobs.

[Willem]

Originally posted by nationalist


That's a shame. Hundreds of thousands of American jobs going to exploited people in backwards countries. If it were up to me, Nike would either have to manufacture its shoes in the U.S. or not sell them here at all. That beliefs covers every American company that uses foreign labor to produce goods to sell to Americans.

The Chinese are most likely going to join the US and Russia in having a man in space this year. I'd say that's pretty impressive for a backward country.