Liberal Leadership: Whose Chances Do You Like?

cinch · May 4, 2003, 01:48

A.K.A. 'Who will be our next dictator?'

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Did anyone else watch the three-way debate between Martin, Manley, & Copps on CPAC today (I only saw part of it)? It was on right after the Havana May Day celebrations (which I also found quite interesting).

I'm pretty sure no one here actually likes the Grits, so I'll say just vote for whichever you hate least, or, failing that, just who you think will win.

Personally, I think Manley's the least bothersome. Copps is just plain annoying. Martin is... average. He speaks French well, from my ignorant Western standpoint.

Or do you think some wild, young upstart will come from nowhere to take the prize?

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Yeah, right.

Asher · May 4, 2003, 02:00

Martin is the best choice and will be the next PM.

Hot Mustard · May 4, 2003, 10:17

You're joking, right?

The Liberal spin-doctors have been preparing us for the Martin succession for years. The message has been "Out with the old, in with the new. Don't blame the Liberals for anything you don't like - blame Chrétien.", and they are slowly increasing the volume.

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 19:01

I read a good article just awhile back, comparing the current Liberal race with the Monty Python sketch attempting to clear the English Channel.

Manley, they say is the man trying to leap across the channel. He may have jumped 10 metres 'unofficially', and he hopes to catch a strong wind that will carry him across the Channel.

Thing is, you believe in Manley until he tries to jump the chasm that is Paul Martin. When he jumps, no matter how far he leaps, he will still fall so short it is not even funny.

Paul Martin's the heir apparent.

My question is not who is the leader, but how much of the Liberal party they will command? Will we see any dissidents jump the fence to one of the other parties after the leadership convention?

cinch · May 6, 2003, 19:51

Quote:

My question is not who is the leader, but how much of the Liberal party they will command? Will we see any dissidents jump the fence to one of the other parties after the leadership convention?

That's very interesting... Do you think it's a real possibility?

It'd be mighty nice to see the Libs split; maybe the new party could actually provide us with a viable soft-left party?

I'd be surprised, though.

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 19:53

"Hope springs eternal."

Oerdin · May 6, 2003, 19:59

Canada has a really wierd system. How come you guys vote for parties and not candidates?

cinch · May 6, 2003, 20:06

Quote:

Canada has a really wierd system. How come you guys vote for parties and not candidates?

So that we don't get caught up in a Cult Of Personality, or vote for someone who has no real (or worse, a detrimental) agenda, simply because they're charming smooth-talkers.

We vote for the party with the principles and policies we agree with most. The leader should take a backseat to party policy, in my opinion, though it usually doesn't work out that way.

Also, you could look at it from the angle that you vote for the MP who will serve your constituency best, and focus primarily on your local needs, rather than federal ones.

But I like the first version better. Vote for the ideas, not the personality.

RedFred · May 6, 2003, 21:14

Sheila Copps!? I wake up in a cold sweat just thinking of the possibility of that wingnut running the country no matter how remote the odds are.

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 21:20

On the bright side we would have a real "Canadian" culture.

mrboo123 · May 6, 2003, 21:21

I think ALL parties of Canada aren't good, the best shot to a "good one" would be the PC meets the Allinace! So in other words, none!

Kontiki · May 6, 2003, 21:27

It's rather sad that the only other party with a legitmate shot of winning an election (the PC) is so far down after the Mulroney debacles. It really makes it a one horse race. I agree that it would be nice for a new party to split out of the current Libs, but I won't hold my breath.

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 21:31

Quote:

with a legitmate shot of winning an election (the PC)

You were going good, and then you had to louse it all up.

We do have an official opposition. The PC has lots of voters, but in all the wrong places.

Kontiki · May 6, 2003, 21:33

Quote:

Originally posted by Oerdin
Canada has a really wierd system. How come you guys vote for parties and not candidates?

Cinch basically covered it, but we do actually vote for candidates. Our system is closer to your congressional elections, whereby you vote for the candidate that represents your area, and the party with the most seats forms the government. In the US, the party with the most seats has the senate majority leader and speaker of the house (IIRC). You just have another level with your president, whereas our ultimate head (ok, not the queen) is the leader of the party with the most seats in parliament.

Here, in theory, you would vote for the person who would best represent your riding's interests, and that still happens to a degree. It's just that you don't tend to get as much independent voting up here, so the party matters more than it really should.

mrboo123 · May 6, 2003, 21:34

Quote:

Originally posted by obiwan18
(...)We do have an official opposition. The PC has lots of voters, but in all the wrong places.

Yep, none in the east, and without kissing the east's as$, you got a 1% chance of winning it!

Kontiki · May 6, 2003, 21:37

Quote:

Originally posted by obiwan18

You were going good, and then you had to louse it all up.

We do have an official opposition. The PC has lots of voters, but in all the wrong places.

Of course we do. I meant that the only other party that could conceivably win an election (ie: appeal to enough people across the county, especially in Ontario, though also out west and in Quebec) would be the PC. Not now, granted, but they have a platform that can draw support. The CA, as it stands, will never get enough seats to win because their popular base (read: Ontario) isn't wide enough and doesn't seem like it will ever get there. The BQ is basically a Quebec only party, and the NDP are just too far left to actually win enough seats.

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 21:44

It's a big debate, can the CA change enough from a regional party to one representing National interests? It's a quite different entity from the Bloc, in that the Bloc favours seperatism, whereas the CA wants to work on greater inclusion of the West within the current system. Could Ontarians vote for such a party if they are so disgusted by the Liberals?

Uncle Sparky · May 6, 2003, 21:46

Paul Martin bought & paid for the leadership over a year ago - what is going on now is all window dressing. The Liberals still run on a constituency/delegate vote at their convention. I think about 8 of the 305 ridings in Canada have non-Martinite delegates voting.

The good thing for Canada will be , with a very right-of-centre leader the liberal party will likely take votes from the two right wing parties and open up some room for the NDP to grow.

mrboo123 · May 6, 2003, 21:49

Quote:

Originally posted by Uncle Sparky
(...)The good thing for Canada will be , with a very right-of-centre leader the liberal party will likely take votes from the two right wing parties and open up some room for the NDP to grow.

and is THAT a good thing

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 21:50

Mighty slim pickin's over on the right, especially here in Canada.

Kontiki · May 6, 2003, 21:51

I doubt it. I think the CA is too far right in general and too much of a "pro-west" party (which isn't a bad thing, BTW, just not greatly appreciated in Ontario) to gain enough support here. Plus, despite the Liberal's shortcomings, Ontario usually benefits the most from their government, so it's pretty hard to dislodge them. Like I said, the PC could conceivably do it, but not without stronger leadership and a few more years to wash the taint of Mulroney from the party.

Ben Kenobi · May 6, 2003, 21:54

Quote:

the PC could conceivably do it, but not without stronger leadership and a few more years to wash the taint of Mulroney from the party.

In the West or in Ontario?

Why do people in Ontario hate Mulroney? Mulroney was very good to them.

Kontiki · May 6, 2003, 22:00

IMO, Mulroney is just too tainted by scandal in general, regardless of geography. I don't think people in Ontario feel all the problems were ok just because their province made out better than others.

Tingkai · May 7, 2003, 00:23

Quote:

Originally posted by obiwan18

In the West or in Ontario?

Why do people in Ontario hate Mulroney? Mulroney was very good to them.

Yeah, Ontarians should get down on their knees and thank Mulroney for creating the GST. It has done so much good for Ontario.

St Leo · May 7, 2003, 00:33

Go NDP. Down with the right-wing tyranny.

optimus2861 · May 7, 2003, 19:16

Quote:

Originally posted by Kontiki
Like I said, the PC could conceivably do it, but not without stronger leadership and a few more years to wash the taint of Mulroney from the party.

Yeah, stronger leadership is a must. Peter MacKay just won't do it. Bernard Lord would've been an ideal candidate, but he smartly saw that going up against the expected Martin juggernaut in the next election was an untenable position, and another term as New Brunswick Premier will give him a healthier history to run on if/when he finally does make the jump to federal politics (an election in N.B. is due this year, and I think Lord will win it, as the Liberals don't have strong leadership to oppose him and Lord ran a superb campaign last time around).

Now, I don't think that the Leaky Ship Liberal will really right itself all that much under Martin (this was Chretien's right-hand man for much of his bumbling reign, remember), and that will leave the ~2008 election ripe for the picking as Martin ultimately collapses under the weight of all the expectations that Canadians are going to place on him as PM.

Seeker · May 8, 2003, 02:35

It will be Martin.

I like the new PC platform.

I think not joining up with the creationists and gun-nuts was a very good long term decision for them.

They WILL be back, sooner or later, as a 'Red Tory' type of party.