I can't beleive I didn't know.... - Page 4

Cobra · June 23, 2003, 17:43

that means it´s a chance of 51,2 % of success

SlowThinker · June 23, 2003, 18:13

Quote:

Originally posted by DrSpike
You've lost me mate.

You unmasked my weak english. Do you want to say you are stupid and I am a genius?

DrSpike · June 23, 2003, 18:17

Hmm ok, I think I see where you're coming from now, though it wasn't really clear earlier. I assume the way the bonus of extra defensive dips is manifested in the attacking dip's probability being modified in the way you suggest is what you tested?

I am surprised if that is the form for the defensive bonus..........it's not very intuitive, and there are several simpler possibilities that yield results quite close to that formula.

Also Rah suggested that noone has recently opined a defensive bonus to multiple dips.........have we all just forgotten the diplos/spies knowledge thread, or is there a SP/MP difference? It doesn't seem that likely to me in this case.

SlowThinker · June 23, 2003, 18:28

Quote:

I am surprised if that is the form for the defensive bonus..........it's not very intuitive, and there are several simpler possibilities that yield results quite close to that formula.

I remember I tested it lightly (and in SP), so there may be another formula working. But I can't see any simpler possibility. The concept that the attacking dip must go over one defending dip, then the second dip, then the third is perfectly natural for me.

SlowThinker · June 23, 2003, 18:30

Quote:

You've lost me mate.

OK, I think I understand.

DrSpike · June 23, 2003, 18:51

The more I think about it the more your proposed structure does makes sense. After all, 0.8*0.8*0.8 is exactly 1 - (0.2 + 0.2*0.8 + 0.2*0.8*0.8), which was the same methodology I was saying to use regarding multiple offensive dips.

Of course from a practical gameplay point of view one almost never has multiple defensive dips, so that could be why Rah has no recollection of observed bonuses, or people mentioning it for MP.

DrSpike · June 23, 2003, 18:54

Quote:

Originally posted by SlowThinker

You unmasked my weak english. Do you want to say you are stupid and I am a genius?

That was not what I was going for no.

Your initial statements could have used a little clarification.

rah · June 24, 2003, 08:07

When someone tests it in MP with all humans, and publishes the results, I'll consider it.

Ming · June 24, 2003, 10:29

I agree... Remember the "no surprise attack bonus" statements... on how it was "tested"... and that it just didn't exist... And then it was tested in MP mode, and surprise surprise... it did exist

DrSpike · June 24, 2003, 11:01

I agree........however the null (to be accepted or rejected) should be that the calculation works as ST says.

With the surprise attack every MPer knew it existed, because they saw the evidence over many games. With the diplo thing I doubt anyone (even with 1000's of games) has reason to doubt the SP results.

Rah did indicate to Atawa earlier he thought there was no benefit to extra defensive diplos........but unless he says otherwise I'll put that down to the lack of frequency of the phenomenom appearing in games.

Tbh I doubt this will ever get tested for MP unless someone is bored.........it just isn't important enough.

Ming · June 24, 2003, 11:07

It will probably be tested the next time people are waiting for the third or fourth person to show up.

While not the most important thing in the world, it would be nice to know for sure.

I know when I've had mulitple diplo's in a city, it never seemed to make any difference at all... but maybe it just wasn't my lucky day

rah · June 24, 2003, 11:15

Agreed that the opportunity doesn't arise very often, but when it does, you seem to remember it.

The most frequent example is when you're preparing the strike force in a city. You'll have the settlers, defensive units, offensive units and multiple dips in case something pops up. You see the enemy diplo approach feeling smug about the 4 dips waiting in the city for the assault and they STILL steal the tech you were hoping that you could attack before they got it. (gun,math,metalurgy, etc)

But still, not that often.
I'd be more interesting in testing the seed not changing on an attempt. That shouldn't be that hard to test.

DrSpike · June 24, 2003, 11:27

Quote:

Originally posted by rah
I'd be more interesting in testing the seed not changing on an attempt. That shouldn't be that hard to test.

Yes this is more use. My prior would be that you were just unlucky, or remembered the times where you were screwed more vividly. But it's an interesting one to know..........and if you do turn up the possibility that the seed can remained unchanged in such a setting, well, that will probably lead to more questions.

rah · June 24, 2003, 12:03

Quote:

Originally posted by DrSpike
and if you do turn up the possibility that the seed can remained unchanged in such a setting, well, that will probably lead to more questions.

Different strats for sure.

War4ever · June 26, 2003, 16:17

two dips in a city....crap one is enough, two is more than halfway to a caravan.... unless your bored, why bother....

fact is, people are going to steal techs......

rah · June 27, 2003, 08:29

If the percentage for foiling was higher, it might become a viable strat to try to stop it, but at the current percentage, it just isn't worth it.

RAH
hmmm, two dips are 60 shields. That's more than a caravan

War4ever · June 27, 2003, 09:43

i really need to read more carefully..........

but i think you got the jist of my statement.....1/2 or 10 shields more....either way its too much , especially early in the game

rah · June 27, 2003, 10:02

Quote:

Originally posted by War4ever
i really need to read more carefully..........

Maybe more care typing/thinking.

War4ever · June 27, 2003, 10:30

i can't keep up with all your double talk and posting..... i looked at the top 10 and you have zoomed past me....

i found that disturbing....

DrSpike · June 27, 2003, 10:42

Quote:

Originally posted by War4ever
i can't keep up with all your double talk and posting..... i looked at the top 10 and you have zoomed past me....

i found that disturbing....

Hehe I think he just didn't want Panag and NYE to overtake him, but overtaking you (probably briefly

) is no doubt also welcome.

Of course he timed his increase in activity with an increase in mod duties, which provides a neat (and moreover partially true) explanation.

Cunning.

rah · June 27, 2003, 10:54

Quote:

Originally posted by War4ever
i can't keep up with all your double talk and posting..... i looked at the top 10 and you have zoomed past me....

i found that disturbing....

So disturbing that you went and did 50 posts.