Science 950BC

[atawa]

Dear fellow citizens:

The plan for getting Mon or Poly from a hut has failed sofar, we got Rep but with all our units we cant change gouverment without disbanding half of them

On the bright side: we have so much useless tech now that the chance of getting Poly or Mon from a hut should be greatly increased from last session.

We are about 10 turns from Poly and with our current techrate we should reach Mon in about 50 turns

What do the citizens want, discover Poly so we can attack our enemy's or save the bulbs for in case we get Poly from a hut?

EDIT: please read bulbs in the poll where it says shields, you have 3 days.

[atawa]

:

Edit: ok, for some reason I can only attach pictures as an attachment, not on screen, above is the link...........

[cavebear]

Bulbs = ?

[atawa]

Science units? How do you call them?

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

I don't think delaying poly in case we get it or Monarchy from a hut is a good idea. We may open a hut, and get some other tech, which sets us even further back.

Samson's hut thread, in the Strategy forum, might be a good place to look, to see how probable either tech is from our next hut.

[cavebear]

Originally posted by atawa
Science units? How do you call them?

Oh. "Beakers". They are laboratory flasks used for mixing or pouring chemicals. They *do* look like bulbs though, don't they? Just never looked at them that way.

[atawa]

I knew that.

Samson's hut thread, in the Strategy forum, might be a good place to look, to see how probable either tech is from our next hut.

Do you have a link for this, sounds interesting

[cavebear]

At this point, I think we are so far from getting Monarchy through research that I think our best option is to go ahead popping huts. We have the units to find many of them, and the AI is running out of crappy techs to give us.

Personally, I suspect the AI has decided that it has given us too many units and too much gold, and that it has reverted to techs.

Looking at the tech chart, the only second column techs left are mathematics, feudalism, mysticism, and polytheism. I don't think (just a guess) it will award feudalism, as monarchy is a prerequisite, though I'd be delighted to put pikesmen in our cities in place of warriors. And I'd be glad to have it give us polytheism for the elephants and because that would allow us to choose a new tech to research and might include monarchy (in which case we would give full attention to research).

My preference is to keep popping huts. When you're in a hole, you might as well dig for gold...

[Sparrowhawk]

I think that all are worried too much about that fact that we have not yet gotten Monarchy, while it may be late to be getting it I agree, I am confident we will soon to be finding it from a hut.

Ironically, knowing that Invention stops "Scrolls of Ancient Wisom" actually works to our advantage here.
Methinks that popping huts can only result in one of Mathematics, Bridge Building, Trade, Engineering, Mysticism, Polytheism, or Monarchy.

While I admit past history suggests that Poly and Monarchy will be 6th and 7th in that list, I think it makes sense to continue popping huts (and trading with any new civs we find if we do) to try and get monarchy by huts rather then research, as the best way for us to increase our research is by getting into monarchy (Sparrowhawk states the obvious).

To answer the poll more directly, we need to save what we have researched, in case we get Polytheism from a hut, so that we can get Monarchy all that much quicker.

Just my two cents.
Sparrowhawk

[atawa]

Originally posted by cavebear
Looking at the tech chart, the only second column techs left are mathematics, feudalism, mysticism, and polytheism.

Yes, we have all the crappy techs allready so the next couple should be good

Even Mys would make it worthwhile to build some temlpes.

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

Originally posted by atawa


Do you have a link for this, sounds interesting

Why yes, I do :

link

and..

from samson:
Scrolls

The result of a scroll outcome can be any unacquired Civilization Advance for which the Civ has all prerequisites.

The chance of obtaining a specific Advance can be calculated by listing the position numbers of possible advances in an alphabetically-ordered list of all advances (as under @Civilize in Rules.txt). An advance's chance of selection is statistically equal to the distance between its position and the position of the advance above it (wrapping the list from bottom to top).

In a nutshell, out of the remaining tech choices, Monarchy has 5 chances in 93 of appearing. Polytheism, 8 in 93.

edit: but feel free to check my math

[cavebear]

But do you really think we have the prerequisites for 93 techs? I don't. I think it will look at columns of techs and tend to provide them in that general order.

Now, might it be set so that some some techs are less likely to be given? Yes. But I don't have evidence of that.

I do note, though that it has given us all the first column techs and most of the second column techs, and only a couple of the third column techs. And one fourth. That does not suggest random gifts of any and all techs for which the requisites are met.

We have 7 of 7 of the first column, 7 of 11 of the 2nd column, 2 of 10 of the 3rd column, and 1 of 9 of the 4th column. I'll bet it backfills to complete the 2nd column before offerring much of the 3rd and 4th (or beyond).

I even suspect there is a pattern here.

[atawa]

STYOM: Thanks for the link, forgot about that thread.

One problem I see that this was tested with 2.42 not with MGE, the results might be different.

I also only see a calculation for the first couple of techs (the first collumn)

Has anyone tested this in later play eg do the chance of getting a tech from the second collumn higher then the third or fourth?

CB is making a good point on this and I would think it would be logical that techs on earlyer collumns have a greater chance of being found then on later collumns.

[Ben Kenobi]

Keep poppin' those huts.

Go for the poor man's invention.

[Hydey]

1. find a hut
2. pop a hut
3. search for another hut
4. repeat steps 1-3

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

Originally posted by cavebear
But do you really think we have the prerequisites for 93 techs? I don't. I think it will look at columns of techs and tend to provide them in that general order.

Read the thread again. We don't need the prerequisites for 93 techs. The placement of the techs we do have prerequisites for in the list of 93, determines the probability of them appearing in a hut.

Now, might it be set so that some some techs are less likely to be given? Yes. But I don't have evidence of that.

Well, I just provided evidence, which was researched by a guy who is pretty well thought of here, in terms of his understanding of Civ2.

There's no evidence to say that huts 'backfill' techs from older columns, on the other hand.

I mean, if we want to keep popping huts, we'll keep popping huts. And perhaps we'll get Monarchy, although Mathematics is 5 times more likely, and Trade 4 times more likely and Bridge/Engineering 3 times more likely.

I just wouldn't bet on it

@ atawa - samson stated, later on in the thread, that he tested a few times on MGE to confirm there was a correlation.

[Zedd]

If i read that post correctly then we have a 2:5 chance (allready have a NON settler) of getting scrolls anyway, and unless we are near a city every other option is 1:5
then when you take into consideration that with the techs we have we qualify for are :
Bridge building 16/93
Engineering 18/93
Math 24/93
Mon 5/93
Mys 2/93
Poly 8/93
Trade 20/93

So Math will be the next, which will not open any new tech paths and then Trade which will make it
Bank 15/93
Bridge 1/93
Engineer 18/93
Mon 29/93
Mys 1/93
Poly 8/93

Making Monarchy tech #3 from a hut.

So lets research POLY

I voted before tryin this out so please ad +1 to research poly and -1 to popping huts. Sorry about that.

[Zedd]

Edit: Sorry I made a mis calc that I didn’t catch until posting. Once we get math there are no new techs but the chances of Monarchy change:
Bridge building 16/93
Engineering 18/93
Mon 29/93
Mys 2/93
Poly 8/93
Trade 20/93

So Monarchy should be just a couple huts away.

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

Well, yes, assuming the most probable tech pops out of the hut. Math is the most likely tech to appear next, but it only has about a 26% chance of coming up. Meaning we have a 2/3 chance of getting neither it, nor Monarchy.

I'm just worried that we'll pop huts until we get Engineering, and then Invention, killing the hut techs for good and leaving us a zillion turns away from researching anything new

[atomant]

Just to add my own 2.16 kwacha to this argument. Our on civilisation size and lack of roads etc, means we would be spend forever trying to reach basic tech levels.

Therefore there are two possible solutions, build more cities (quickly) or follow Hydeys four point plan when it comes to hut popping

[Ben Kenobi]

More cities not possible until Monarchy.

One of the consequences of no wonders.

[MrWhereItsAt]

Simple observation: we don't seem to have enough cities of a size to support an army for conquering. We will need to conquer. The army needs to take precedence over all in this game, so we keep popping until we can get to Monarchy.

It looks to me that Monarchy should be our one focus ATM, and if we keep finding huts then let's keep popping them whilst they are going to give us techs. Every new tech we research in place of popping huts denies us all those beakers in terms of gold/lux.

[Six Thousand Year Old Man]

Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
It looks to me that Monarchy should be our one focus ATM, and if we keep finding huts then let's keep popping them whilst they are going to give us techs.

Erm, not to be a broken record here, but the more techs we get from huts, the longer it'll take us to research Monarchy.

We could luck in and get it from a hut, but the chances of that are relatively small.

[Zedd]

Well, yes, assuming the most probable tech pops out of the hut. Math is the most likely tech to appear next, but it only has about a 26% chance of coming up.

If the testing is correct then we have a 2:5 or 40% chance of getting tech from a hut, and when we get the next tech it will be math. As long as we have the NONE setler then our prob of scrolls outcome stays 40% and the next tech for discovery would be monarcy. Even if this does not prove true it takes far less turns to pop 4-5 huts than to research monarchy.

Finish Poly and pop huts for monarchy.

:edit: Ohhhhhh, I see what you meant the 24/93 does not determine the tech, but the techs chances of being discovered. I conceede your point STYOM but still think popping the huts is the best way to go. At the worst we can gift some usless techs to the AI to drop our beaker requirements.

[Bob_Smurf42]

Yes, we need Poly now!!! But hit the huts anyway!!! All of them!!!
BTW, 'beakers', the science units, were bulbs in Civ(1)