I'll see your hijacking and raise you a dead Donald Rumsfeld...

Agathon · July 29, 2003, 07:32

This is just nutty.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/21..._terror+.shtml

I suppose they should really open it up to ordinary gamblers. I'd put a buck or two on Saddam getting away.

CerberusIV · July 29, 2003, 07:56

I notice the point that traders will be anonymous so the critics think it could be open to terrorists themselves. Isn't that a bit pointless, allowing someone to bet that a terrorist event will happen when they could be linked to the same people who then go out and do it?

Agathon · July 29, 2003, 08:00

Whatever the "research" gains of such a scheme, it would be a political disaster.

Which retard thought this up?

FrustratedPoet · July 29, 2003, 08:05

That's some pretty sick stuff.

However, I expect it's the kind of thing that will make good tabloid headlines but have no real effect for good or bad.

PLATO · July 29, 2003, 08:07

So I guess we are saying that Joe Millionaire has better intelligence assets than the CIA? This is simply ridiculous! I can see scandal written all over this one.

Az · July 29, 2003, 08:23

There was this online game predicting world-wide 'futures' like election results, and stuff. Not the french one, but an international one. It's a shame that I lost the link.

Az · July 29, 2003, 08:24

I believe I can make a shitload of money in the ME prediction market.

Agathon · July 29, 2003, 08:30

Quote:

Originally posted by Azazel
I believe I can make a shitload of money in the ME prediction market.

I bet that Azazel will impoverish himself and his family by playing this "game".

Az · July 29, 2003, 08:39

I wouldn't bet on that.

Seriously though, I've seen the price of an option of Ariel Sharon winning the election that was to materialize at 100 credits valued at 79 credits before the elction. that's 21 credits from nothing!

The diplomat · July 29, 2003, 10:36

I'd like to know who is the idiot in the Pentagon that came up with this idea of a "terror market". What a stupid, immoral, and grotesque idea!

Agathon · July 29, 2003, 10:37

Quote:

Originally posted by Azazel

Seriously though, I've seen the price of an option of Ariel Sharon winning the election that was to materialize at 100 credits valued at 79 credits before the elction. that's 21 credits from nothing!

I'd have a word with the fat bastard's cardiologist before I put my money down.

Agathon · July 29, 2003, 10:38

Quote:

Originally posted by The diplomat
I'd like to know who is the idiot in the Pentagon that came up with this idea of a "terror market". What a stupid, immoral, and grotesque idea!

Well in this case you are spoiled for choice.

Az · July 29, 2003, 11:18

Quote:

Originally posted by Agathon

I'd have a word with the fat bastard's cardiologist before I put my money down.

sore loser.

Japher · July 29, 2003, 12:03

Quote:

But experts say the DARPA-backed Policy Analysis Market (www. policyanalysismarket.org) is based on a legitimate theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis, that has a proven track record in predicting outcomes.

From The Moronical

Quote:

Basically, the idea is that the collective consciousness is smarter than any single person. By forcing people to put their money where their mouth is, the wagers help weed out know-nothings and give more weight to the opinions of those in the know.

"Markets are a great way of aggregating information that a lot of different people have," said Eric Zitzewitz, an assistant professor of economics at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. "One of the big issues with intelligence that was gathered before 9/11 was that information wasn't aggregated within the intelligence community. This is directly aimed at addressing that."

So the public will be given all FBI/CIA intelligence report? What is this moron saying? That the general public has just as much clue as to what is going on as a highly funded, resource government arm?

Well, we already knew that!

Nubclear · July 29, 2003, 12:33

Code Red!! Code Red!!

Japher · July 29, 2003, 12:38

Morningstar:

Code Red is up 2 points or 10% in earlier morning trading, possibly fueled by the exceptionally nice weather that we are having on the east coast, suggesting that many investors would like the day off.

Also seeing large volumes are School Bombings as children in the mid-west spend 4th period Computer Programming classes battling with the teachers to call an early day to school, Bank Robberies, and Cherry Bombings. Up 4% (to 18.25), 7.5% (to 32.35), and 10% (to 1.52) respectively.

---

MichaeltheGreat · July 29, 2003, 13:23

The whole notion is absurd. I don't find it morally objectionable, because it's just another analysis tool, but even the smartest of markets don't have sufficient granularity to act as short term predictors to be useful for intelligence purposes.

MichaeltheGreat · July 29, 2003, 13:43

RIP: http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/07/29/ter....ap/index.html

Kropotkin · July 29, 2003, 19:25

I thought there had to be a tread about this around here at the OT, even if it's about to die already.

One has to give it to 'em, it's a novel idea. Not that it's politically correct by (hardly) any standards is beside the point as it's not the pentagons job to make it look good.

Anyway, I think the people behind the idea belives way to much in a market system. Considering the way the media runs to and from hot spots it's probably safe to say that the market would behave in a similar fashion. It's just so much easier and direct to hire and ask a bunch of experts after all.

Agathon · July 30, 2003, 00:42

Quote:

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
I don't find it morally objectionable, because it's just another analysis tool,

Um, isn't that why we have research ethics?

Odin · July 30, 2003, 00:56

I am betting that Arafat and Sharon will be assasinated by 2005, Bin Laden is found in Iran, and Saddam is in Tikrit.

This is just morally revolting.

rev · July 30, 2003, 00:58

I'm sure the people at the Pentagon are pretty smart, but how was this supposed to work, exactly?

Some anonymous user or group of users bets a lot of money that X will happen on Y day.

What, do we raise the terror level again?

Man, we already have enough trouble with insider trading. We don't need to gamble with peoples' lives.

MichaeltheGreat · July 30, 2003, 03:06

Quote:

Originally posted by Agathon

Um, isn't that why we have research ethics?

Research ethics apply to experimentation, not to prediction. If someone was going to buy a billion in futures, then spend a hundred mil on financing a coup, you'd have a special sort of "insider trading" problem

but I assume they'd planned a way to prevent that sort of market skewing activity.

rev - the purpose of the money side was to prevent people from talking out their ass. By putting their money where their mouths are, you'd separate serious assessments (in theory) from idle speculation by the likes of us peasants. The problem with that is that I think there's enough people with money to burn that they'd make spurious predictions just for the "fun" of it.

Dis · July 30, 2003, 03:15

well that idea didn't last long. of course the goverment has to have an investigation on how this idea came to be in the first place.

Rufus T. Firefly · July 30, 2003, 04:23

Quote:

Originally posted by Dissident
well that idea didn't last long. of course the goverment has to have an investigation on how this idea came to be in the first place.

Actually, they're setting up a website and asking us to bet on the possible sources. I've got "Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Rice, and some wicked Thai Stick" at 5 to 3.