What was all that about Dean not having a shot?

Boris Godunov · August 2, 2003, 01:02

I remember a few weeks ago, certain folks were dismissing Howard Dean as a serious contender for the Democratic nomination. Well, let's see:

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story...8-01-03&cat=WW

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Howard Dean's surge ... SARS sputters ... Court cleaning

Scripps Howard News Service
August 01, 2003

WASHINGTON - Has former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean suddenly and shockingly emerged as the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination?

Most polls show him running third, but they also establish him as the only contender with momentum - picking up five points since May according to the Ipsos/Cook Political Report poll - and he proved he can more than hold his own when it comes to dialing for dollars, raking in $7.6 million during the last quarter.

Surveys show Dean rising to the top in Iowa, the first caucus state, and holding a slim lead in New Hampshire, site of the first in the nation primary. But the real proof might lie in the fact that center-right Democratic organizations, such as the Democratic Leadership Council, are flogging his candidacy unmercifully, confirming they are extremely concerned.

If Dean beats Kerry in NH, Kerry's done, finished, kaput. Only one of them will survive that contest.

Dean lighting a fire under NH Democrats

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The Portsmouth Herald published a front-page picture the other day of Howard Dean, his shirt sleeves rolled to the elbows as usual, delivering one of his red-faced campaign speeches with the harbor in the background. The accompanying article said he had attracted an audience his staff estimated at 650 people.

To veterans of the New Hampshire presidential primary wars, that was obviously a stretch - 650 at a rally in July?

But an inside page of the paper carried a photograph taken from above that showed the crowd was indeed 650 people, give or take a few dozen.

Has any major party candidate ever drawn this much attention this early? I don't think then-governor Bush had this kind of interest back in mid-1999.

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Two new opinion polls seem to reinforce the message of the impressive rally audience that Dean is a serious factor. Both show Dean and Kerry - in that order but within the margin of error - leading the field of nine candidates and comfortably ahead of former House Democratic leader Gephardt and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000.

I also read an editorial today about how Dean may just outmaneuver the other Democratic candidates. Kerry's campaign has been rather stupidly ignoring him for the most part, claiming they are "saving up" for the future. In the meantime, the other Dems aren't doing anything about Dean, because they enjoy seeing him eat at Kerry's lead. This could end up biting them all, should they wake up one day to see Dean has a commanding lead and they can't do a thing about it.

I remember telling the nay-sayers Dean had the grassroots organization and the personal dynamic to make a splash in the race. Well, here he comes, folks!

Imran Siddiqui · August 2, 2003, 01:08

How about we wait until Iowa and New Hampshire come... then we can see him lose and fall gently out of sight, just like all these other 'grassroots' candidates have throughout the years.

Boris Godunov · August 2, 2003, 01:14

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Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
How about we wait until Iowa and New Hampshire come... then we can see him lose and fall gently out of sight, just like all these other 'grassroots' candidates have throughout the years.

Wishful thinking. You'll note he leads now in Iowa polls, is even with Kerry in NH, and is also ahead in California now. That makes him a major contender, like it or not. He's certainly far ahead of where you estimated he'd ever be.

Nubclear · August 2, 2003, 01:17

Hmm....Was it Dean or Kerry who was the democrat?

Boris Godunov · August 2, 2003, 01:18

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Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar
Hmm....Was it Dean or Kerry who was the democrat?

Umm...they're both Democrats...

Imran Siddiqui · August 2, 2003, 01:20

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Wishful thinking. You'll note he leads now in Iowa polls, is even with Kerry in NH, and is also ahead in California now. That makes him a major contender, like it or not. He's certainly far ahead of where you estimated he'd ever be.

No. He's about where other grassroots guys are early. Like I said, he'd be like McCain and fade out after the real votes started coming in... and you remember the hubbub about McCain's campaign right? For a moment there I thought he was going to win, and then realized... oh yeah... we've seen this type of thing before.

Imran Siddiqui · August 2, 2003, 01:21

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Hmm....Was it Dean or Kerry who was the democrat?

Well Kerry is more the democrat. Dean is much more centrist, and on certain positions is to the right of center.

Boris Godunov · August 2, 2003, 01:27

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Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
No. He's about where other grassroots guys are early. Like I said, he'd be like McCain and fade out after the real votes started coming in... and you remember the hubbub about McCain's campaign right? For a moment there I thought he was going to win, and then realized... oh yeah... we've seen this type of thing before.

McCain didn't have this much interest back at this point in 1999--it wasn't until much later in the people became interested in him, and it was largely due to distaste among some Republicans at Bush being "annointed" as the frontrunner.

Regardless, you'll note McCain did put up a significant challenge to Bush, creaming him in NH. Well, Kerry's got to win NH--without it, he has no credibility as Northeast candidate. Bush survived it because he was Southern and went on to win SC, which was his saving grace. Kerry won't win SC, because either Leiberman, Gephardt or Edwards will kick his arse there.

McCain also made the unfortunate mistake, for a Republican, of saying something that irked Pat Robertson. So Pat called in the forces of the Christian Right, and that put the brakes on McCain's momentum. No such luck can be relied upon for Dean.

Besides all of that, Dean is now at frontrunner status, which is far greater than you were predicting for him. Just admit you were wrong.

And please, by all means, remain complacent. It's just going to make it more fun to see you surprised!

Boris Godunov · August 2, 2003, 01:28

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Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

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Hmm....Was it Dean or Kerry who was the democrat?

Well Kerry is more the democrat. Dean is much more centrist, and on certain positions is to the right of center.

See, you don't even know what you're talking about. Dean is not more center than Kerry overall, he's more left. Why would the DLC, a staunchly centrist group, be against Dean if he was more centrist?

Imran Siddiqui · August 2, 2003, 01:31

No, I thought he might get play here at this point. He'd be the "Left's answer" to Democrats. But what where I was wrong is that I didn't know how righty he was. Thought he was fairly left, didn't know his gun and DP issues.

But he's still considered the "Left's Answer".... only his backers don't realize how freaking centrist he is!

And don't worry, I'll be here. It'll be fun to see the dissapointment on your face the day Dean drops out of the race and tells his supporters to back Kerry.

Boris Godunov · August 2, 2003, 01:48

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Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
No, I thought he might get play here at this point. He'd be the "Left's answer" to Democrats. But what where I was wrong is that I didn't know how righty he was. Thought he was fairly left, didn't know his gun and DP issues.

You said no such thing. You said he'd always be a smalltime candidate and wouldn't get serious consideration for the nomination. He's now serious, since he's got frontrunner status.

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But he's still considered the "Left's Answer".... only his backers don't realize how freaking centrist he is!

This is absurd. His gun control views aside, his support for the DP is far less than that of, say, Clinton or Gore or other DLCers. On other social policies, he's solidly left, but fiscally responsible.

Again, if he was so centrist, what's the DLC's problem?

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And don't worry, I'll be here. It'll be fun to see the dissapointment on your face the day Dean drops out of the race and tells his supporters to back Kerry.

Yawn.

Imran Siddiqui · August 2, 2003, 01:53

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This is absurd. His gun control views aside, his support for the DP is far less than that of, say, Clinton or Gore or other DLCers. On other social policies, he's solidly left, but fiscally responsible.

Again, if he was so centrist, what's the DLC's problem?

What was the RNC's problem with McCain? As people like che pointed out, he was just as conservative as Bush on issues like abortion and military spending. He got painted as a 'liberal'. Why? He wasn't the party's choice. That is why these 'grassroots' guys end up losing in the end.

I've checked out his positions on his website. I could imagine Clinton saying every single one of them word for word, and I don't see where Kerry would say that's too liberal either.

In fact, if you repackage the words a bit, you basically get something like an Arlen Spector or Olympia Snowe would say.

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He's now serious, since he's got frontrunner status.

Ah yes, frontrunner status. Like Phil Graham in '96... oh wait.

Giancarlo · August 2, 2003, 03:53

Dean = Another McGovern

DanS · August 2, 2003, 07:27

Dean would be a great sheep for the slaughter once the general elections. I would luuuuv to see GWB's millions crush him.

However, I do wonder whether he has the staying power to take the Dem primaries. We'll see. I'm very skeptical. The biggest thing he has done has been showing how weak some of the candidates are. See Gephardt.

The Mad Monk · August 2, 2003, 07:38

I would love to see Dean stay in the fight -- the longer, the better. Nothing is better than watching the opposing party beat itself into submission during the primaries.

Giancarlo · August 2, 2003, 07:49

I want Dean to get into the primaries. So the democrats can be completely embarassed by his utter failure. The biggest problem the democrats have is the fact they lack a strong leader, or even a viable one. Sad state really. They always got Hillary!

Solly · August 2, 2003, 09:41

Does it matter who the Democrats provide anyway?

The Templar · August 2, 2003, 09:54

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Originally posted by Boris Godunov
This is absurd. His gun control views aside, his support for the DP is far less than that of, say, Clinton or Gore or other DLCers. On other social policies, he's solidly left, but fiscally responsible.

Again, if he was so centrist, what's the DLC's problem?

Yawn.

He's not the DLC's annointed one.

Anyway, after that little meeting where the DLC *****ed and moaned about all the candidates so far, I think its time the DLC got kicked out of the party.

Dean could end up being more like Clinton or Carter - coming out of nowhere and first taking the nomination, and then the presidency.

Oh, and a few more dead soldiers in Iraq and Bush will have challengers in the Republican party primary.

DinoDoc · August 2, 2003, 10:03

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Originally posted by DanS
Dean would be a great sheep for the slaughter once the general elections. I would luuuuv to see GWB's millions crush him.

I share this opinion as well.

Shi Huangdi · August 2, 2003, 10:19

I can only wait for Kerry to unleash his financial power against Dean. Together with the National Handgun Control Center, he will start airing ads in New Hampshire of some crying mother who lost her son to a gunshot, and what a monster Dean is for continuing to support guns. Just like that, the Democratic party base, save for the gays, will be rushing to vote for Not Dean.

chequita guevara · August 2, 2003, 10:51

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Originally posted by Boris Godunov

See, you don't even know what you're talking about. Dean is not more center than Kerry overall, he's more left. Why would the DLC, a staunchly centrist group, be against Dean if he was more centrist?

Imran is somewhat correct. Dean has been described as a fiscal conservative. What is getting him lots of attention is his standing up to the phoney President and pointing out that he's wearing no clothes, something which the rest of the Democrats refuse to do.

This is why Dean is doing so well, because the others don't understand how viscerally the Democratic party base loathes Bush with every molecule of their beings. Kerry, who would do well with Dean's base, if he would only stop pulling his punches.