The future of civilizations in 30 years?

Sirotnikov · August 7, 2003, 02:56

After watching some TV, reading some web-sites and alot of pondering, I have reached several conclusions about the future of civilizations on earth in some 30 years time.

1. The cultural dominance will shift completely from anglo-germano-american hegemony to far eastern hegemony, with Japan being a much larger "culture exporter" than the US is right now.

2. The next big huge militaristic and political power will be China. I would hope they will have outgrown their communist phase by then, or else many people are going to have troubles adjusting, and many wars may ensue.

(minor point)
3. The european culture will become weaker. The radical muslem fundamentalism will grow fiercer until it outburns itself, and will slowly turn to self healing and recovery after some (probably tragic) point. Or possibly a major war could cause major genocide on the moslem side.
(/minor point)

And most finally - I have learnt to accept and even to like what I see coming.

I used to be scared and fearful of the cultural change. I thought "oh crap, these japanese guys are going to come and replace our cultural icons with smaller, shinier, more excited things, drawn in manga style, and our meals will all suddenly become rear fish."

But then I out grew it. I realized that culture change is a major part of things, and were I born 100 years ago in europe, I would have feared american culture, and were I born in the ME , I would have feared the evil european culture.

But unlike the arabs, or the french, I have realized recently that cultures come and go with the wind, and there's no reason to become too attached to something, which may soon become anachronistic.

Jewish moment:
For example: The whole reason the Jewish nation survived was that they adapted to the surrounding environemtn, and NOT as the conservatives claim "avoided any changes". If the Jews had avoided any changes, we'd have no mishna or gmara or rambam or what ever.

And I think it's stupid that whole masses of Jews, still dress in black clothes and fur hats, as if it was late 17th century poland. Grow up, for christ sake.
/End Jewish moment.

I have realized that the far eastern culture is strong, and the japanese are cool people, and it will do me absolutely no harm if they replace america as the main exporter of culture and style and fashion. Even though they are as overly crazy about toys, computer games and animation series, as americans are about god, the death penalty and large breasts.

I've come to understand that we live in an ever changing world and we should not fear change. Obviously each natio should strive to leave a bigger mark, and be "dominant"; but in the end of the day, I see it as a large "functional" system, where every nation plays a role in defining human kind. There is no real "civilization struggle" or "clash", and the sooner the arabs and the french realize this - the better.

I'm happy to say though, that I'm not afraid of the future anymore. Infact, I'll probably try and study more about oriental culture and linguistics from now. Cause that is where the future lies, and it is good.

Joseph · August 7, 2003, 03:02

The USA is not going away anytime soon.

Nubclear · August 7, 2003, 03:03

Quote:

Originally posted by Joseph
The USA is not going away anytime soon.

I'm pretty sure it'll be just as important as present-day lithuania though

Sirotnikov · August 7, 2003, 03:04

and now that we are finished with the knee jerk reactions

...

Joseph : it will most probably lose it's leader status to japan in the cultural sense, and china in the power sense.

And it will happen in the next 30 years or so.

Joseph · August 7, 2003, 03:11

Quote:

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
and now that we are finished with the knee jerk reactions

...

Joseph : it will most probably lose it's leader status to japan in the cultural sense, and china in the power sense.

And it will happen in the next 30 years or so.

I really don't think so. The American cultural has change since I was in my 30s, and it is still changing. So the World will still be following us for some time.

Sirotnikov · August 7, 2003, 03:16

Quote:

I really don't think so. The American cultural has change since I was in my 30s, and it is still changing. So the World will still be following us for some time.

Yes. For some time. But not much longer than 20-30 years IMO, whent modern oriental culture will dominate.

Rufus T. Firefly · August 7, 2003, 03:19

On the cultural point:

A trend of the moment that seems to me absolutely irreversible is the spread on English as a global language. 30 years from now, even more people around the world will speak English even more fluently, and English-language education will be a more integral part of early schooling in more countries. For that reason alone, the US will continue to be a major exported of culture.

Nubclear · August 7, 2003, 03:43

Quote:

Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly
On the cultural point:

A trend of the moment that seems to me absolutely irreversible is the spread on English as a global language. 30 years from now, even more people around the world will speak English even more fluently, and English-language education will be a more integral part of early schooling in more countries. For that reason alone, the US will continue to be a major exported of culture.

But thats assuming that the US stays the economic and military power for the next thirty years. The reason English is important to learn right now is because the US is the current economic and military superpower

If Lithuania was, then we'd all be speaking Lithuanian right now.
If the US loses its power to China, then.....

We'll all have to learn Chinese??!?!?!!

Koyaanisqatsi · August 7, 2003, 04:04

I don't see the US losing its status as a cultural exporter.

Why?

Because we aren't just an exporter, we're an importer as well. In the past half century, the US has imported culture from the far east, Africa, India, and many other places to a lesser extent. But we specialize in repackaging and reselling the cultures we import, with our own influence on them. I don't believe that other nations do this well, and while they may learn, they haven't shown signs of it yet. Other nations provide cultural raw materials, and the US provides salable goods...the amount of influence any given individual culture has on the goods we export changes with taste, but it still tends to go through the US.

Note that this may change as anti-Americanism increases worldwide, but right now, as much as the rest of the world hates us, most of it seems perfectly willing to accept the culture that we export.

Eli · August 7, 2003, 04:04

Quote:

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
After watching some TV, reading some web-sites and alot of pondering, I have reached several conclusions about the future of civilizations on earth in some 30 years time.

I WANT IT TOO!!!

(you know...)

MHO :

Quote:

1. The cultural dominance will shift completely from anglo-germano-american hegemony to far eastern hegemony, with Japan being a much larger "culture exporter" than the US is right now.

Unlikely. Yes, oriental culture will be more widespread but I wouldnt count on anything close to "complete shift".

Quote:

2. The next big huge militaristic and political power will be China. I would hope they will have outgrown their communist phase by then, or else many people are going to have troubles adjusting, and many wars may ensue.

China will be a "huge militaristic and political power" but not THE power. The US has an enourmous lead and they're not stupid. A 20-30 years timeframe is just not enough for China to grab the lead.
How many years of fast economic growth will have to pass for China to even START working really seriously on it's army?

Quote:

3. The european culture will become weaker. The radical muslem fundamentalism will grow fiercer until it outburns itself, and will slowly turn to self healing and recovery after some (probably tragic) point. Or possibly a major war could cause major genocide on the moslem side.

Europe will go to hell either case.

Frozzy · August 7, 2003, 04:06

McJobs

Sir Og · August 7, 2003, 04:22

The only thing that scares me about the future is that as technology advances it becomes very easy to build complex and deadly weapons, such as nukes, bio weapons, etc.
This means that nutcases of the future would use a lot more deadly stuff than explosives, sniper rifles, etc used nowadays.

DAVOUT · August 7, 2003, 04:23

Siro, you are absolutely right in accepting and even liking to adapt to the changes coming; and I agree with some of those that you anticipate (China, Muslims).

But there is a point about culture that I would like to clarify. I understand that a culture can become less attractive, but I dont see how it becomes anachronic. Cultures are primarily made of history, arts and litterature, all things which have a permanent human value. Many other things, such as meals, are part of the way of life, and can be changed without hurting the local culture.
From what we have seen till now, the european culture has always been enriched by other cultures. I have no doubt that the Chinese culture will offer a lot to western cultures, possibly more than the Japan. But I cant see any of them replacing the Greek or Roman heritage.
And it seems quite obvious that the access of Japan and China to the global culture market will reduce the relative influence of the western cultures.

Saras · August 7, 2003, 04:35

Quote:

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar

I'm pretty sure it'll be just as important as present-day lithuania though

Perhaps way less important. Lithuania is more important thant your small brain can imagine

Saras · August 7, 2003, 04:36

Quote:

And I think it's stupid that whole masses of Jews, still dress in black clothes and fur hats, as if it was late 17th century poland. Grow up, for christ sake.

Sir Og · August 7, 2003, 04:39

As far as culture is concerned we are going to have only one culture in the future. "Earth culture" It would be a mixture of present cultures. And everybody will probably speak WorldEnglish or UniverEnglish or however they call the language that the World would adopt.
It will be impossible to have unique regional cultures in the future because you need to have isolation to develop something unique. And even with present day communications the world is like a big village.

Ecthy · August 7, 2003, 04:42

All of us will have beer bellies.

(/knee jerk)

Lord Merciless · August 7, 2003, 04:48

My prediction: cultural boundaries become more and more amorphous. It will be harder to tell whether a new trend/fashion is American, Asian, or European. Pokemon (a Japanese invention) could come just as well from America.

China is going to be the factory of the world. It will not be a cultural center. A country that spends only 2.6% of its GDP on education will only go that far.

For Muslims, it's either change or doom. Islamic fundamentalism will cause lots of damages to others, but will ultimately doom Islam. On the other hand, if Muslims can swallow some pride and embrace reforms, they still have a good shot.

Europe's influence will decline as its population. Can't expect much creativity and initiative from societies made up of grannies.

WRangler Rhymer · August 7, 2003, 05:05

This is all very interesting, but one can't calculate the future so easily. For one China may become great that is if they do not decide to do something to change that for themself. You most remember China has had alot of strength though history.

FrustratedPoet · August 7, 2003, 05:24

Quote:

even though they are as overly crazy about toys, computer games and animation series, as americans are about god, the death penalty and large breasts.

That's an exhange I'm more than willing to make.

Harovan · August 7, 2003, 05:34

Seconded. Far-east culture, here I come!

WRangler Rhymer · August 7, 2003, 05:38

Quote:

Originally posted by Sir Ralph
Seconded. Far-east culture, here I come!

That does not mean that the China will be a dominate force, they were many times in the past they could have been a super giant but the traded that in for isolation from the world.

Datajack Franit · August 7, 2003, 06:05

I thought that the whole western world was going to disappear because of birth rate collapse, obesity and mass immigration

Maniac · August 7, 2003, 06:09

Quote:

Europe's influence will decline as its population. Can't expect much creativity and initiative from societies made up of grannies.

Some figures:
In 2002, the percentage of the population older than 60 was: +-25% in Japan, 23% in Western Europe and 17% in the USA. It is predicted that in 2050 that would grow to 43% in Japan, 37% in Europe and 28% in the USA. So though Europe will suffer from grampas like me in 2050, Japan and USA will have the same problem in a higher or lesser degree.

Combat Ingrid · August 7, 2003, 06:28

I think the shift in culture will rather be an "age shift" than a geographical one. The populations in the industrialized world (west and east alike) are aging so the demand for and as a consequence also the production of "grannie culture" will probably become quite significant in the coming decades

Nubclear · August 7, 2003, 06:36

Quote:

Originally posted by Saras

Perhaps way less important. Lithuania is more important thant your small brain can imagine

Ah yes, the Lithuanian superpower...I remember now

Saras · August 7, 2003, 07:34

Good. The healing has begun

Al B. Sure! · August 7, 2003, 07:42

i dont see the japanese taking over culturally... japanese popular culture seems to be mocked if anything (animated porno? robot dogs? pokemon?)... then again, everybody mocked japanese products in the 40's and now they produce just about everything thats hi-tech.

Starchild · August 7, 2003, 07:45

Speer, that's not mocking Japanese popular culture....that is Japanese popular culture.

Al B. Sure! · August 7, 2003, 07:46

i always wondered how the people in once world-dominating empires/nations felt a few years or generations after losing their status? I mean the turks in the 1930's after a rapid decline and loss of territory... or the poles and lithuanians in the 18th century... i guess the english know how it feels the most recently... how does it feel, brits?