The future of civilizations in 30 years?

[Spiffor]

In 30 Years, Sid Meier Jr's Civilization 9 will be wholly 3d and holographic.

[lord of the mark]

"For example: The whole reason the Jewish nation survived was that they adapted to the surrounding environemtn, and NOT as the conservatives claim "avoided any changes". If the Jews had avoided any changes, we'd have no mishna or gmara or rambam or what ever.

And I think it's stupid that whole masses of Jews, still dress in black clothes and fur hats, as if it was late 17th century poland. Grow up, for christ sake.
/End Jewish moment."

Note 1 - you surely mean conservative in the colloquial sense - not referring to Conservative Judaism (TM) (also called Masorti Judaism) since that movement entirely asserts that not just the Jewish Nation, but Judaism itself, and even Halacha made changes (as you correctly cite wrt Mishna, gemara, rambam, etc)

Note 2 - The guys in black clothes and fur hats, though i profoundly disagree with them, are quite grown up, and many (if perhaps less than advertised) have a very profound spirituality.

Note 3 - demographically the guys in black clothes and fur hats are doing far better than folks like us Siro. These is especially true here in the diaspora, where the birthright falls off dramatically as you move to the religious-cultural "left". Intermarriage may not be as much of a threat as once thought (at least in the USA, where the situation is better than in other diaspora communities) but its not a major demographic contributor either.

historically the only predominantly "left" (ie secular or Reform) jewish community to have significant natural increase is the Israeli community. And that community is afflicted with Yordeh and constant risks of, well, cultural assimilation. And im not sure youre keeping the birth rate up either. OTOH Israel, more than the diaspora, still sees movement of haredim into the modern camp, which can represent both demographic and spiritual-cultural renewal for the latter.

[lord of the mark]

" The cultural dominance will shift completely from anglo-germano-american hegemony to far eastern hegemony, with Japan being a much larger "culture exporter" than the US is right now."


well it is certainly interesting how weve gone from Japan being an economic powerhouse, with a culturally dominant USA, to an economically weak japan with strong cultural influence, against an economically dyanamic USA.

I think the far east is too heterogeneous to reach cultural hegemony any time soon. Japanese and Chinese, for example, are unrelated spoken languages, much further apart than any two Indo-european languages. On a more trivial level, is Anime popular in China? Is Starcraft a hit outside of Korea?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar


I'm pretty sure it'll be just as important as present-day lithuania though

well considering that Britain has been in relative decline from like 1865, and theyre still a great power, i think this is obviously silly.

[Q Classic]

yes. the 21st and 22nd centuries will belong to asia, as civilization returns to its cradle, away from the europeans who stole it and back to the east and south asians who brought it to its zenith long ago.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar


But thats assuming that the US stays the economic and military power for the next thirty years. The reason English is important to learn right now is because the US is the current economic and military superpower If Lithuania was, then we'd all be speaking Lithuanian right now.
If the US loses its power to China, then..... We'll all have to learn Chinese??!?!?!!

I think english has transcended US power, just as earlier it transcended the power of Great Britain. How many Indian novels are now written in English? How many Indians speak only English? How do Indians from the many minority communities speak with Hindi speakers? India alone means English will survive - even if the center of the english speaking world shifts from New York to Bombay, as it once shifted from London to New York. And thats just India - theres also the influence of English in Africa, the middle east, etc.

[Saras]

Originally posted by lord of the mark



well considering that Britain has been in relative decline from like 1865, and theyre still a great power, i think this is obviously silly.

considering this was a troll, you've been had

[Saras]

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar

The reason English is important to learn right now is because the US is the current economic and military superpower If Lithuania was, then we'd all be speaking Lithuanian right now.

You already speak a VERY bastardized form of Lithuanian

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Datajack Franit
I thought that the whole western world was going to disappear because of birth rate collapse, obesity and mass immigration

well thats the difference between the USA and europe. Mass immigration doesnt lead to our collapse, but to our renewal. Immigrants from Mexico and from Viet Nam communicate with each other ---- in English. Immigrants of all kinds adopt American ways. The US in turn gains strength from them. The general command Centcom (and thus the troops in Iraq) is of Arab (specifically Lebanese Christian) descent. The former Secretary of the army is japanese-american, as is the secretary of transportation. And of course the Sec of State and the Nat. Security Advisor are African-Americans.

Our diversity is our strength!!!

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Saras


considering this was a troll, you've been had

as someone who is one-quarter litvak, im ashamed.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Saras


You already speak a VERY bastardized form of Lithuanian

note the anti-semites are always quick to note how many bush admin neo-cons are Jews. Now what would be more interesting would be to seperate out the galitzianers (and any sephardim) and determine how many Litvaks there are among them. A litvak campaign to dominate the world ?

[Saras]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


note the anti-semites are always quick to note how many bush admin neo-cons are Jews. Now what would be more interesting would be to seperate out the galitzianers (and any sephardim) and determine how many Litvaks there are among them. A litvak campaign to dominate the world ?

I knew they were up to something, these conspiring Litvaks

[:) Smiley]

US will continue its dominance due to its unique position of being an industrialized nation with population growth. While other nations will allow their population to age, the US responds to shortages of labor by opening the gates to more immigration. This is a positive feedback loop as eventually those immigrants will retire and create another labor shortage. There are projections that suggest the US population would hit 500 million in 50 years and keep growing.

[Lord Merciless]

Originally posted by Maniac


Some figures:
In 2002, the percentage of the population older than 60 was: +-25% in Japan, 23% in Western Europe and 17% in the USA. It is predicted that in 2050 that would grow to 43% in Japan, 37% in Europe and 28% in the USA. So though Europe will suffer from grampas like me in 2050, Japan and USA will have the same problem in a higher or lesser degree.

Japan is in bigger trouble than Europe. Unlike the previous 2, US can sustain itself with immigration. We know how to integrate immigrants.

[Japher]

We know how to integrate immigrants.

That is also why the US cultural domination will not yield to Asian cultures. America knows how not only to intigrate immigrants, but cultures as well.

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Combat Ingrid
I think the shift in culture will rather be an "age shift" than a geographical one. The populations in the industrialized world (west and east alike) are aging so the demand for and as a consequence also the production of "grannie culture" will probably become quite significant in the coming decades

Well, I gotta tell you that comes as a relief given that the past 50 years have been oriented towards the kiddie/adolescent set. Once you hit, oh, 27, nothing advertised applies to you anymore.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
After watching some TV, reading some web-sites and alot of pondering . . .

The extent of Siro's research on this topic.

[monolith94]

"i always wondered how the people in once world-dominating empires/nations felt a few years or generations after losing their status?"

The influence of hiroshima/nagasaki and the tokyo firebombings are still clearly visible in modern japanese culture - in all sorts of modern anime, the heroes are imbued with a sort of phoenix like resiliency - in fact it is defeat itself which instigates technological advances. Japanese culture and mindset is so unique, so distinctive, that although it will continue to be strong and resist foreign incursions, I doubt how well it will appeal to people outside of Japan.

[Maniac]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless
Japan is in bigger trouble than Europe.

Indeed it is. Still I think Japan can be considered creative despite their high rate of grannies. So your theory that granny societies, such as Europe in a few decades, won't have much creativity and initiative doesn't hold.

[mrmitchell]

Computers will become more and more powerful. Not having been programmed with general "Love Humans" routines, robots (when built) will start to gradually become sour towards humans. Only well-educated computer professionals will have jobs. Robots will do everything, and the wealth they create will be spread amongst the uneducated classes. All will be happy, until everyone is a lardass being kept up by robots whose maintanence had long been dead. (Why would one need education? The robots are doing all the work.) Humans will lose all value, and be exterminated in a nuclear holocaust initiated by President XJC15. The Earth is shattered. Aliens invade and take control, although eventually they just terraform our planet back into a livable biosystem. It's not cost effective for giant b-movie-like King Kong aliens to use a small planet like Earth. Eventually, Earth becomes the only planet in the galaxy to be a natural bioplanet with no synthetic life. Suddenly, a masked man behind mrmitchell stabs him in the back for continuing long past 30 years or the story's humour. As Mitch drops dead, his blood pouring out over the keyboard, the masked man quickly gets his wallet and runs the hell out of here.

[Gangerolf]

1. The cultural dominance will shift completely from anglo-germano-american hegemony to far eastern hegemony, with Japan being a much larger "culture exporter" than the US is right now.

Sure, but I think the US will keep its cultural hegemony in the West, while Japan may "take over" east asia.

(minor point)
3. The european culture will become weaker.

But then again we may see some "national romantic renaissances" (in lack of a better term) as a reaction to the cultural clashes the EU's increased integration will/may cause.

[Gangerolf]

Originally posted by lord of the mark



I think english has transcended US power, just as earlier it transcended the power of Great Britain. How many Indian novels are now written in English? How many Indians speak only English? How do Indians from the many minority communities speak with Hindi speakers? India alone means English will survive - even if the center of the english speaking world shifts from New York to Bombay, as it once shifted from London to New York. And thats just India - theres also the influence of English in Africa, the middle east, etc.

It'll probably become the lingua franca of Europe and the EU as well (well some might say it already is), regardless of what the damn frogs say.

[:) Smiley]

Grannification will put a huge damper on European and Japanese culture. When the population ages, it gets more conservative. Conservative populations rarely create new things, rather recycling old ideas.

[BeBro]

I don´t buy these predictions. No doubt, China will be more powerful, but if it becomes THE superpower is another matter.

Also I think the major cultural zones will be still intact in some decades, with more diversity due to globalization, but in all directions - no huge shift towards only one dominating culture. I don´t see us all learning Chinese or Japanese

[Q Classic]

east asia, where the sun rises, is where high culture began.

it is good to see the wellspring of high culture reorienting itself to its proper position.

[The Vagabond]

Apparently Chinese and Japanese are in essence pretty closed cultures. Take for example Britain, France or Russia. People of very diverse ethnic backgrounds have been able to assimilate (in a good way), contribute into, become an integral part of those cultures and societies. This is not quite so in China and Japan. Perhaps the languages are too different and difficult. Or perhaps there is no real tradition of assimilation.

[Q Classic]

no tradition of assimilation.

cjk all tend to be ethnically homogenous groups, with their own very definite and very proud cultures; china, having been the power in the past, was the originator of much (but not all), which was transmitted to j and k.

unfortunately, it also means what one could consider racism is a bit more ingrained there; it is far harder for an outsider to integrate into society in any truly meaningful way, unlike europe.

(which is so starved for culture that it'll take any and all cultures...)

[JohnT]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


well thats the difference between the USA and europe. Mass immigration doesnt lead to our collapse, but to our renewal. Immigrants from Mexico and from Viet Nam communicate with each other ---- in English. Immigrants of all kinds adopt American ways. The US in turn gains strength from them. The general command Centcom (and thus the troops in Iraq) is of Arab (specifically Lebanese Christian) descent. The former Secretary of the army is japanese-american, as is the secretary of transportation. And of course the Sec of State and the Nat. Security Advisor are African-Americans.

Our diversity is our strength!!!

Well said!

[JohnT]

Even though they are as overly crazy about toys, computer games and animation series, as americans are about god, the death penalty and large breasts.

Now, I might be reading this wrong, but it seems that you are saying that of the many things that Japan will export, "toys, computer games, and animation series" will be among the biggest.

Problem:

Computer games were invented in the West, as well as filmed animation. (Toys, of course, are universal.) To claim that Nintendo is causing the Japanization* of the West is to entirely missed the point - Nintendo is actually a result of the Westernization of Japan.

*To possibly coin a word.

[:) Smiley]

Then again, the US didn't invent God, the death penalty or large breasts. It wasn't the first to make them such an integral part of its culture either.