Victory for Lib Dems in Brent east election

[Snotty]

In an E-mail from Sarah Teather, new MP for Brent east.

What a result!

In case you missed the full details, the result was:

Lib Dem: 8,158 (39%, up 29%)
Labour: 7,040 (34%, down 29%)
Tories: 3,368 (16%, down 2%)
Others: 2,286 (11%)

Lib Dem majority: 1,118

Swing from Labour to Liberal Democrat 29%
Swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat 15%

It was a fantastic achievement - and one that I genuinely believe could presage
a major change in politics.

The tide is turning in our direction and against Labour.

From BBC news:

Labour reels from by-election defeat


"The biggest hammer blow of Tony Blair's political career" is how the Sun sees the Liberal Democrats' victory in the by-election at Brent East.

The Independent describes the result as a humiliating defeat for the government.

The paper claims the outcome was based on "hostility to the government's record on schools, health, crime and the war in Iraq".

The Daily Telegraph echoes this, saying the result is an indication that the government has lost popularity because of the recriminations over the Iraq war and growing infighting over public service reforms.

The Times puts it more simply - "voters in Brent East", it says, "decided to give Tony Blair a bloody nose".

Im so glad to have been involved in this. All our hard work has payed off, and we have given labour a blow in what will most likely be the last bye election before the general election.

The beggining of the end?

[Snotty]

This one isnt as important to read, but if you want more info. From http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/pol...p?story=444843

Lib Dems stun Blair by taking Brent
By Nigel Morris, Political Correspondent
19 September 2003


The Liberal Democrats celebrated a stunning victory early today after demolishing a 13,000 Labour majority to win the Brent East by-election.

In a humiliating defeat for the Blair Government in a formerly safe seat, the Liberal Democrat Sarah Teather won 8,158 votes to give her a 1,118 vote advantage over Labour's Robert Evans on 7,040.

The Tory Uma Fernandes, helpless in the face of the surge, was reduced to third place with 3,368 votes. Turnout was a higher than expected 36.4 per cent.

Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat leader, said: "This isn't just a big boost for the Liberal Democrats. It's a big boost for British politics. We've shown there's no such thing as a no-go area for the Liberal Democrats."

The result - the first seat lost by Labour in a by-election for 15 years - will ring alarm bells in Downing Street and sets the scene for a jittery Labour conference later this month.

The party won the constituency - which until 2001 was held by Ken Livingstone, the Mayor of London - with 63 per cent of the vote at the general election but saw its support crumble amid disquiet over its record on public services and opposition to the war in Iraq.

In the first important test of public opinion since Dr David Kelly's death, the issue of trust in Tony Blair and the Government haunted Labour. Senior cabinet ministers and dozens of MPs were drafted into the north-west London constit-uency in an attempt to shore up the vote and Mr Livingstone was even called in to rally his former constituents to the party that expelled him.

But with days to go before polling, David Blunkett, the Home Secretary, admitted the Liberal Democrats had drawn neck and neck with Labour.

Mr Evans, an MEP, had been defending a 13,047 majority won in 2001 in Brent East by Paul Daisley, whose death in June from cancer caused the by-election. The Conservatives were runners-up then with 5,278 votes and the Liberal Democrats third with 3,065, or just over 10 per cent of the vote.

But party canvassers encountered hostility to the Government's record on schools and health and discovered that fear of crime was a recurring theme. The Iraq war a constant theme in a constituency with a substantial Muslim vote.

The Liberal Democrats, whose annual conference begins on Sunday, cashed in on the disillusionment with stunning success despite having a minimal presence in Brent previously. They flooded the area with activists and MPs and Mr Kennedy made repeated visits.

The Conservatives were putting a brave face on the result, but it was a bitter blow to Iain Duncan Smith, who this week renewed his attempts to rebrand the Tories as a "caring party". Ms Fernandes, a community nurse, was the only candidate from the three main parties who lived in the constituency, but betrayed her fears about the impending Tory rout in a newspaper interview, conceding that she had little hope of victory.

Theresa May, the Conservative Party chairman, said: "This is not natural Tory territory. The real story ... is people wanting to give a message to the Labour Party that they don't trust them."

The field of 16 candidates also included the self-styled comedy terrorist Aaron Barschak, who won 37 votes, and Kelly McBride, protesting over retention in the Army of two soldiers who shot dead her brother in Belfast in 1992. She received 189 votes.

Nick Raynsford, the Local Government minister, denied that Mr Blair, who had barely featured in Labour election literature, had become a liability to the party. "He will carry on as Prime Minister. He has a huge contribution to make," he told the BBC.

"And a large number of people in the country whatever their current unhappiness - and there have been unhappinesses in the last few weeks - recognise [that]."

Stephen Twigg, an Education minister, said the party would have to learn from Brent. "I'm not denying that a big swing away from us is not good news for us but it is certainly not good news for the Conservative Party either. They will have to have their own inquest about this election as well."

He added: "The Lib Dems and before them the SDP have a history of winning by-elections and then on the next vote losing the seat. I think that the Lib Dems are fooling themselves if they read great significance into this result."

* Labour beat off a challenge from the British National Party to win a seat on Stoke-on-Trent City Council in a by-election. Paul Sutton won at Abbey Green, with 842 votes compared with the BNP's 782.

[Solly]

Why this is the top story on the BBC page I haven't a clue...well, I do actually.

Bias

[Drake Tungsten]

The BBC is chock full of lima deltas...

[Snotty]

Not quite. Its top because its important. This is major swing against Labour, not just in words, but actual votes. Its all very easy to say how to war has cost Labour, but now we have real evidence. 5000 we took right off of Labour.

[dannubis]

go see fox new then ....

[TheStinger]

By elections where the ruling party lose a seat are always top story. There is no bias in this instance.

Everyone always overplays the significance, but thats what the media do. Its not bias.

[Agathon]

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end for that smarmy **** Blair.

Anyway, you missed the highlight of any by election: the big time losers.

Here they are:

Brian Butterworth (Socialist Alliance) 361

Iris Cremer (Socialist Labour Party) 111

If these two parties could only put aside their differences I'm sure that they'd beat the legalize pot people.

Now for the real clowns.

Khidori Fawzi Ibrahim (Public Services Not War) 219

Brian Hall (UK Independence Party) 140

Alan Howling Lord Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) 59

Rainbow George Weiss (WWW.XAT.ORG) 11

xat.org has to be seen to be believed.

[TheStinger]

The 2 socialist parties are far more clownish than the others you mention

[Solly]

The 2 socialist parties are far more clownish than the others you mention

I'm sure the candidates could make a nice toffee between them.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by TheStinger
The 2 socialist parties are far more clownish than the others you mention

But no doubt still better than the Tories by a handy margin.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Park Avenue

I'm sure the candidates could make a nice toffee between them.

Well I see that your friends the National Front couldn't be bothered even running a candidate. I guess they couldn't get a day pass from prison.

[Harovan]

Originally posted by TheStinger
The 2 socialist parties are far more clownish than the others you mention

It's hard to top xat.org.

[Solly]

Well I see that your friends the National Front couldn't be bothered even running a candidate. I guess they couldn't get a day pass from prison.

Apparently the mental asylum is first in the queue.

[TheStinger]

Originally posted by Sir Ralph


It's hard to top xat.org.

I hounestly think they would do less damage than those socialist parties

[Harovan]

Originally posted by TheStinger
I hounestly think they would do less damage than those socialist parties

Perhaps, but doing damage is not the same as being clownish.

[TheStinger]

No but they would do damage by enacting their clownish policies.

A policy to renationalise every provatised industry is inherently clownish. How will they pay for it? with Mr Giggle's comedy money.

[Whaleboy]

The only word I can really think of is Beautiful!! A party with the word "liberal" in its name actually won something!!

*elijah moons at blair*

[Whaleboy]

XAT's going to get a rather long and painful email

[*End Is Forever*]

It's an impressive result result for the Liberal Democrats, but one that's been hugely overplayed by them. This is quite clearly a vote against the Labour government, rather than a vote for the yellow hoardes. People quite clearly chose the party that was best equipped to defeat Labour, and backed that horse. It's only a "terrible night for the Conservatives" in the same sense that the Romsey by-election was a "terrible night for Labour" - that is, not at all. In fact, for Uma Fernandes to hold her share of the vote in the circumstances shows that all is reasonably healthy.

That said, they probably deserve it, because they've worked exceptionally hard - swarms of LDYS activists have descended on the constituency day after day during the campaign - but at the end of the day it's still a victory built on the key Liberal Democrat by-election tenets of lies, deception and hard work; the latter honourable, the former two certainly not.

[MikeH]

If they wanted to just overthrow labour then why not vote in the party that was second last time?

Because it's a left wing constituency and they wanted a left wing MP.

Can't believe a Conservative has the cheek to talk about another party's election lies!

[*End Is Forever*]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics, Mike.

The Conservative candidate was only second from the Liberal Democrats by a whisker last time, and both were light years behind Paul Daisley. That gap is largely populated by "core" Labour voters who would never vote Conservative come hell or high water. Any protest from these people would either go to the Liberal Democrats (who have with great opportunism gone after the hard-left vote), the far left, or else not at all. It's very misleading to say that because the Conservative were (just) in second place, they were best placed to capture the core Labour vote. That's simply not true!

Incidentally, anyone want to place a tenner on Teather retaining her seat at the next election? Thought not...

[MikeH]

"That gap is largely populated by "core" Labour voters who would never vote Conservative come hell or high water."

That's what I said.

Depends what happens between now and the election but I doubt it.

[*End Is Forever*]

Sorry, I thought it was a semi-rhetorical dig.

[TheStinger]

If labour had come third then they should be worried. But as they didn't its just another mid term by election loss.

It would be interesting to as all the politicians their views at the time of previous by election results when differing parties were in power.

Some hounesty about the result would be nice.

[molly bloom]

Yes, yet another mould breaking by election win for an opposition party during the Government's doldrums.

Of course, it heralds a new dawn for British politics, and Lloyd George will get out of his grave to come to Westminster to get a leg over Anne Widdecombe.

[lord of the mark]

"The party won the constituency - which until 2001 was held by Ken Livingstone, the Mayor of London "

Not exactly a "new labor" stronghold, I take it?

[Paul Hanson]

Ken Livingstone was a Labour MP.

[reds4ever]

It's one thing posting a protest vote in a mid term by-election when Labour has a big majority anyway, ( its happened to the Tories and Labour), the same voters will go back to Labour when it comes to the crunch.

Anyone want 5/2 Brents not in the Lib Dems hands come the general? :O)

[*End Is Forever*]

5/2? I'd put money on that.