September 22, 2003, 02:30
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#1
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Emperor
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Schroeder Continues Slide Into The Dustheap Of History
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Schroeder Heading for Landslide Defeat in Bavaria
Sat September 20, 2003 06:50 PM ET
By James Mackenzie
MUNICH, Germany (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats face their third major defeat this year Sunday in a state election that Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber is forecast to win by a landslide.
Polls predict Stoiber's Christian Social Union (CSU), which has held power in the Alpine state of Bavaria for four decades, will increase its share of the vote to about 60 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) will struggle to top 20 percent.
After heavy defeats in state polls in Hesse and Lower Saxony, another big loss would underline Schroeder's weak standing nationally and step up pressure as he attempts to steer an ambitious package of reforms through parliament this autumn.
It would also represent a measure of revenge for Stoiber a year to the day since Schroeder defeated him by just 6,000 votes in last September's general election.
But the election should also open the way for Schroeder to start serious negotiations with the conservatives over the painful program of welfare, health and pension reforms and a related set of tax cuts he is counting on to help kick start the stagnant economy.
Talks in Berlin between the SPD and the conservatives, who can block most of the measures as they control the upper house of parliament, have come to a standstill in the run-up to the election. The conservatives do not want to be seen to back vote-losing welfare cuts during the campaign.
The conservatives have been at pains to play down some predictions that their majority could end up as high as two thirds but the SPD has effectively written off Bavaria, where the CSU has held an absolute majority since 1962.
Stoiber's traditional appearance in Bavarian costume at the opening of the annual Oktoberfest beer festival in Munich on Saturday was greeted with the customary roar of approval from the crowd and he has made great play of Bavaria's solid economy in the campaign.
But a landslide win would also reinforce his position as one of the leaders of the national opposition, potentially giving him a role as kingmaker in anointing a future challenger to Schroeder or even allowing him to resume the mantle himself at the next elections in 2006.
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http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...toryID=3479450
What does this portend for the German national elections in 2006? Is Schroeder doomed? Can he fight his way out of this ever-deepening pit? Will Americans ever consistantly spell his name correctly?
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September 22, 2003, 02:49
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#2
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Deity
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Schroeder won national office by identifying himself as an anti-American candidate. I can only hope that bastard chokes on his positions and Germany is left in the hands of a more moderate politician.
__________________
Christianity is the belief in a cosmic Jewish zombie who can give us eternal life if we symbolically eat his flesh and blood and telepathically tell him that we accept him as our lord and master so he can remove an evil force present in all humanity because a woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from an apple tree.
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September 22, 2003, 03:00
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#3
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Civ4: Colonization Content Editor
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Stoiber already lost against Schroeder last year and I'm not sure if he can win in 2006. Thing is, Bavaria doesn't really belong to Germany. It's a bit like Texas and the USA. Outside of Bavaria nobody really likes Stoiber. For a victory of the right wing in Germany he is rather an obstacle.
I didn't vote for him yesterday. He's a nutcase. Neither did I vote for the moronic Social democrats.
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September 22, 2003, 03:06
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#4
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Emperor
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Defeat in Bavaria is a given for the SPD. I wouldn't read too much into it.
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"The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
-Joan Robinson
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September 22, 2003, 03:11
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#5
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Deity
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I thought that the German voters would be in open revolt against Schroeder with the current double-dip recession. We would be chopping off their heads in the US.
__________________
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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September 22, 2003, 03:22
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#6
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Emperor
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Schroeder winning in Bavaria would be exactly like Bush losing in Texas.
__________________
"The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."
-Joan Robinson
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September 22, 2003, 03:26
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#7
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King
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Oerdin
Schroeder won national office by identifying himself as an anti-American candidate. I can only hope that bastard chokes on his positions and Germany is left in the hands of a more moderate politician.
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lol ... 
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"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something." -- Plato
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September 22, 2003, 03:34
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#8
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Deity
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Laugh all you want but the truth remains. Schroeder was behind in the polls before he came out with his anti-American policies.
__________________
Christianity is the belief in a cosmic Jewish zombie who can give us eternal life if we symbolically eat his flesh and blood and telepathically tell him that we accept him as our lord and master so he can remove an evil force present in all humanity because a woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from an apple tree.
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September 22, 2003, 03:57
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#9
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Settler
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"What does this portend for the German national elections in 2006? Is Schroeder doomed?"
Very little. It confirms the national polls where his party is in deep ****, but it's still 3 years to go.
"Can he fight his way out of this ever-deepening pit?"
That's possible if the economy turns around and he gets further reforms going. Although the more relevant question is, can the CDU/CSU fight their way to another defeat? You bet they can.
"Will Americans ever consistantly spell his name correctly?"
Own goal.
__________________
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 03:58
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#10
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Civ4: Colonization Content Editor
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I grant Oerdin this one, he was behind in the polls and won by a campaign opposing the American warmongering. The vast majority of our population supported this. I don't see why it is a bad thing promising (and then keeping the promise!) what the majority of the population wants. I can't say I'm unhappy with Schroeders foreign policy. It may be performed arkwardly sometimes, but the general direction is ok. His domestic policy sucks, though.
But what all this has to do with the election of the Bavarian parliament, remains a mystery.
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September 22, 2003, 03:59
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#11
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Settler
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Quote:
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Originally posted by DanS
I thought that the German voters would be in open revolt against Schroeder with the current double-dip recession. We would be chopping off their heads in the US.
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European voters don't vote based solely on the business cycle. I find it funny when the nanny state is held responsible for giving everyone a job.
__________________
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:00
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#12
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Settler
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Oerdin
Laugh all you want but the truth remains. Schroeder was behind in the polls before he came out with his anti-American policies.
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Do you want a surrender monkey with that whine?
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:03
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#13
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Deity
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No, but it appears you do surrender Dyl. 
__________________
Christianity is the belief in a cosmic Jewish zombie who can give us eternal life if we symbolically eat his flesh and blood and telepathically tell him that we accept him as our lord and master so he can remove an evil force present in all humanity because a woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from an apple tree.
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September 22, 2003, 04:07
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#14
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Settler
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Maybe cause I like France.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:20
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#15
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Deity
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Dyl: Do you honestly contest that Schroeder was not behind in the polls before he began his anti-American rants? It's pretty clear he moved into the lead upon his anti-Bush/American positions.
__________________
Christianity is the belief in a cosmic Jewish zombie who can give us eternal life if we symbolically eat his flesh and blood and telepathically tell him that we accept him as our lord and master so he can remove an evil force present in all humanity because a woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from an apple tree.
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September 22, 2003, 04:23
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#16
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Deity
Local Time: 05:06
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Quote:
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European voters don't vote based solely on the business cycle. I find it funny when the nanny state is held responsible for giving everyone a job.
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That's not the half of it. Even though Bush hasn't been shy about doing things for the economy, the wolves are still baying.
Anyway, I'm a firm believer in the punishment principle. The Germans should have thrown Schroeder out of office for doing precious little while the country double dipped.
__________________
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
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September 22, 2003, 04:36
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#17
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King
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Sir Ralph
I grant Oerdin this one, he was behind in the polls and won by a campaign opposing the American warmongering. The vast majority of our population supported this. I don't see why it is a bad thing promising (and then keeping the promise!) what the majority of the population wants. I can't say I'm unhappy with Schroeders foreign policy. It may be performed arkwardly sometimes, but the general direction is ok. His domestic policy sucks, though.
But what all this has to do with the election of the Bavarian parliament, remains a mystery.
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Maybe, I don´t know.
It could also have something to to do with other Aspects of his Election Campaign, such as lying about the successes, his government has made during the 4 years before.
But of course, as most of the Germans saw (and still see) the Iraq Wars as illegal, he made a wise move in declaring, that Germany wouldn´t get involved into the war (and keping the promise). I also fail to see anything bad in tryng to do what the majority of your Population wants.
As for the next natonal Elections, I think it depends very much on how well the economy is running during this time. If Elections were held at the moment I think, that the SPD (Schröders party) wouldn´t win, because of the bad economic Situation (despite Angela Merkel (CDU) making a very bad Move for the PR of the CDU/CSU by kissing Bushs ass during her Visit in Washington).
But it is a long time till 2006, maybe the economic Situation is better at this time and Schröder might have a chance to win the Elections again
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September 22, 2003, 04:39
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#18
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Settler
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Oerdin
Dyl: Do you honestly contest that Schroeder was not behind in the polls before he began his anti-American rants? It's pretty clear he moved into the lead upon his anti-Bush/American positions.
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He gained a couple percentage points by being against your silly Iraq adventure, in agreement with the vast majority of public opinion. That's not anti-american, he could have played that card much more ruthlessly.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:41
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#19
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Settler
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Quote:
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Originally posted by DanS
Anyway, I'm a firm believer in the punishment principle. The Germans should have thrown Schroeder out of office for doing precious little while the country double dipped.
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I believe in that principle too, but on a performance standard, you would have to publicly quarter any Repubicrat.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:41
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#20
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Deity
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I don't know. It seemed pretty clearly anti-american from where I'm standing.
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Christianity is the belief in a cosmic Jewish zombie who can give us eternal life if we symbolically eat his flesh and blood and telepathically tell him that we accept him as our lord and master so he can remove an evil force present in all humanity because a woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from an apple tree.
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September 22, 2003, 04:44
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#21
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Settler
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You're used to the pathetic state of US public debate, where every disgagreement with the dear leader is anti-something (antiamerican, antisemitic). Schröder's comments were tame compared to Rumsie's ramblings. He could have said that Bush is a war criminal, but he didn't, that dumb lameass.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:47
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#22
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Deity
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Quote:
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Originally posted by HershOstropoler
He gained a couple percentage points by being against your silly Iraq adventure, in agreement with the vast majority of public opinion. That's not anti-american, he could have played that card much more ruthlessly.
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Like by having a cabinet minister call Bush a Nazi?
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September 22, 2003, 04:51
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#23
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Settler
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He didn't order her to say that*, and she was sacked. Where's Rummy for his Lybia comment?
* More precisely, that Bush uses foreign policy to detract from domestic issues, and that pattern is known since Nazi times.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 04:53
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#24
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Civ4: Colonization Content Editor
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Quote:
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Originally posted by Proteus_MST
As for the next natonal Elections, I think it depends very much on how well the economy is running during this time. If Elections were held at the moment I think, that the SPD (Schröders party) wouldn´t win, because of the bad economic Situation (despite Angela Merkel (CDU) making a very bad Move for the PR of the CDU/CSU by kissing Bushs ass during her Visit in Washington).
But it is a long time till 2006, maybe the economic Situation is better at this time and Schröder might have a chance to win the Elections again
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The right wing may have the upper hand right now, but elections are won by the success in the last 4-6 weeks before the polls and not by something what happened 3 years ago. Also, the Germans have not forgotten, who rode them in the deep **** by 16 straight years doing nothing ("sitting things out", if this is a good translations of "aussitzen" ). That were the same conservatives, who now scream, that they have the patented recipe to get us out of the misery. I don't want to defend Schröder, he is domestically incompetent, but the right wing is not any better.
I give Schröder a decent chance for winning in 2006 again, if his opponent is Stoiber. Even if a majority of Germans may tend to vote conservative. But Stoibers popularity is limited by the state borders of Bavaria. Everywhere else he's loathed. And the feeling "Conservative - maybe, Stoiber - never!) may gain the upper hand again.
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September 22, 2003, 04:55
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#25
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Deity
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Yeah right. She came out of a vaccuum and just picked that off the tree, right?
Come on, I live in a country where the chattering classes like to regard Bush, and any other Republican who resides in the White House, as a chimp at best. If one of them hicks actually does something disliked on the international stage, then the gloves come off and the pooh really flies.
I know the game.
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September 22, 2003, 05:05
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#26
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Settler
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"Come on, I live in a country where the chattering classes like to regard Bush, and any other Republican who resides in the White House, as a chimp at best."
Which is really mean to monkeys. 
"If one of them hicks actually does something disliked on the international stage, then the gloves come off and the pooh really flies."
Fine with me. Just that our side is still way too indirect.
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“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
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September 22, 2003, 05:12
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#27
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Deity
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hahahahahahahahaahahahaaha
Mr. Raygun
The truth is your side cannot tolerate a real difference from you.
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September 22, 2003, 05:16
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#28
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Emperor
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Elections in a one-party state, who cares?
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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident." - Schopenhauer
In GAIS we trust!
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September 22, 2003, 05:19
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#29
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Deity
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Quote:
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Originally posted by notyoueither
hahahahahahahahaahahahaaha
Mr. Raygun
The truth is your side cannot tolerate a real difference from you.
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That's why the poo flies when a Republican wins.
__________________
Christianity is the belief in a cosmic Jewish zombie who can give us eternal life if we symbolically eat his flesh and blood and telepathically tell him that we accept him as our lord and master so he can remove an evil force present in all humanity because a woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from an apple tree.
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September 22, 2003, 05:23
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#30
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Deity
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But, they are not anti-American. Just unable to tolerate the wishes of some half of the population of the US.
When someone wins who will just launch a few cruise missiles at tents, it's all good.
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