Is probability so hard to understand?

Urban Ranger · September 28, 2003, 22:05

Yesterday I was telling my mom about probability. She didn't understand any of it.

I was saying to her, if you flip a coin 10 times, and heads came up 9 times, does it mean that head has a 90% chance to come up the next flip? Of course not. When you roll a die 6 times, and 5 came up all 6 times, does it mean that 5 will come up next time as well? Of course not.

But she didn't understand.

Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

PLATO · September 28, 2003, 22:09

So what's the difference between probability and actuarial science?

Zero · September 28, 2003, 22:11

Probability is a big conspiracy! God does not play dice. Dont listen to the devil's preachings!

There's about 100% probability that I may not be serious when I said that.

GePap · September 28, 2003, 22:13

Cause its math beyond arithmatic and thus by definition NOT simple..shees, why can't science types understand somehting so simple?

Wiglaf · September 28, 2003, 22:27

Probabilities are not simple. How exactly would a computer calculate a completely random value? Not easily. Of course when you're talking in stupid terms, like the physical realm of a coin, then probability is more of a joke. Much easier to understand...

Can you write a truly accurate simulation of the perfect dice, UR? Did not think so.

mrmitchell · September 28, 2003, 22:28

Quote:

When you roll a die 6 times, and 5 came up all 6 times, does it mean that 5 will come up next time as well? Of course not.

Yes it will! The dice are obviously loaded.

Nacht · September 28, 2003, 22:36

When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

Bosh · September 28, 2003, 22:48

50% I think

Nacht · September 28, 2003, 22:50

When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

Nacht · September 28, 2003, 22:52

Sorry for the delayed double post...

Boshko: and with six dice? 100%?

Asher · September 28, 2003, 22:54

Quote:

Originally posted by Wiglaf
Probabilities are not simple. How exactly would a computer calculate a completely random value? Not easily. Of course when you're talking in stupid terms, like the physical realm of a coin, then probability is more of a joke. Much easier to understand...

Can you write a truly accurate simulation of the perfect dice, UR? Did not think so.

Understanding probability and generating random numbers on a computer aren't the same thing.

Computers can never be perfect at generating random numbers because all they are is glorified input/output devices. The input defines the output, which means it needs to start from something, which means it can never truly be random.

This is a very different thing from saying we don't understand how probability works.

pchang · September 28, 2003, 22:55

Your mom is probably used to loaded dice.

Urban Ranger · September 28, 2003, 23:16

Quote:

Originally posted by GePap
Cause its math beyond arithmatic and thus by definition NOT simple..shees, why can't science types understand somehting so simple?

No, it's not the calculations, it's the basic concepts behind it.

MrFun · September 28, 2003, 23:33

What is the probability of this thread becoming way boring??

Skanky Burns · September 28, 2003, 23:47

3d6 to get at least one 6: 42+%
6d6 to get at least one 6: 66+%
10d6 to get at least one 6: 83+%

See, lots of fun.

Urban Ranger · September 28, 2003, 23:52

Quote:

Originally posted by Nacht
When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

Getting one 6: 3/6
Getting two 6s: 3/36
Getting three 6s: 1/216

But I wasn't talking about the calculations, I was talking about the basic concepts!

MrFun · September 28, 2003, 23:52

oh yeah -- thrilling

Nubclear · September 28, 2003, 23:53

Quote:

Originally posted by MrFun
What is the probability of this thread becoming way boring??

0%, for it has already achieved such status.

Urban Ranger · September 28, 2003, 23:53

Stop spamming my thread MrFun

Ben Kenobi · September 28, 2003, 23:53

When you roll three dice, what's the chance of having at least one six?

91 / 216 42%

MrFun · September 28, 2003, 23:54

Quote:

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Stop spamming my thread MrFun

fine

Ben Kenobi · September 28, 2003, 23:59

216 = 6^3

91 = (6)! +1
----
6

so we have ( ( (n)! / n ) +1 ) / n ^ d

where d = number of dice

n = number of faces.

Asher · September 29, 2003, 00:04

What is the probability of God existing?

Ramo · September 29, 2003, 00:06

Probability isn't intuitive. At least, not for me. And the same is probably true for most people. That's just how our brains work. If I didn't have the proper mathematical training (as is the case with most people), I'd be scrwed.

PLATO · September 29, 2003, 00:07

Quote:

Originally posted by Asher
What is the probability of God existing?

100%

Bosh · September 29, 2003, 00:07

no wait, 3 dice is
38.8888888888888888% of getting at least 1 six
6 dice is, or is it? aaaargh I used to know how to calculate this nine years ago

Asher · September 29, 2003, 00:08

Quote:

Originally posted by PLATO
100%

When I try to parse it I get divide by zero errors.

Ben Kenobi · September 29, 2003, 00:12

Quote:

I used to know how to calculate this nine years ago

I think my formula's right. That's probably the quickest way to calculate the probabilities.

Ramo · September 29, 2003, 00:25

On a related note, why are groups supposedly so hard to understand? I mean, it's so simple - for instance, fibres of an automorphism between normal subgroups formed by taking the left coset of an abelian group that happens to be a ring under another commutative operation, anyone who doesn't understand every last theorem about these concepts should be shot. Shot I tell ya! Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

MrFun · September 29, 2003, 00:26

Quote:

Originally posted by Ramo
On a related note, why are groups supposedly so hard to understand? I mean, it's so simple - for instance, fibres of an automorphism between normal subgroups formed by taking the left coset of an abelian group that happens to be a field under another commutative operation, anyone who doesn't understand every last theorem about these concepts should be shot. Shot I tell ya! Why can't people grasp such simple concepts?

Please don't shoot me . . .