What Has The Amercian-led War On Terror Achieved?

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Osweld


He hasn't?

But for it to be considered a troll, doesn't the troller have to be saying something that would piss the trollees off?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
al Quada gaining lots of new recruits.

The $64,000 dollar question. Whats happened to al qaeeda (and affiliates) recruiting since 9/11? Since the liberation of Aghanistan? Since the invasion of Iraq? How does total recruitment compare to the numbers killed or detained?

The recently leaked Rumsfeld memo indicates that even DoD doesnt know the answers. I doubt that anyone else knows them (Given the state of disruption of Al Qaeeda, and their decentralization in response, I doubt even the Al Qaeeda leadership knows the answers)

And the question of what recruitment is versus what it would have been if any particular US action had not been taken is even more difficult.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


Gosh. You think?
And why do you single me out??
What's your problem with Drake?
So, because terrorism isn't wiped out universally, we shouldn't be grateful for the lull Park Avenue brings up?

Sorry. I think I'll continue to celebrate.

Aren't you suppose to be working at the new job of yours?

I'm not saying that you can't celebrate any achievements we make in this war against terrorism -- go ahead.

But at the same time, we can't ignore what happens in non-Western countries just because they do not have oil there or because they do not have nukes.

[General Ludd]

Originally posted by Caligastia


But for it to be considered a troll, doesn't the troller have to be saying something that would piss the trollees off?

The best trolls are ones that the target can't reconize, and can even take as compliment. I'm not going to pretend that I know what's going through bodd's mind (thank god), but his post was just oozing with sarscasm to me.

[lord of the mark]

Potential WOT metrics

1. Number, magnitude and location of terrorist acts.
The fewer the better. The smaller the better. and yes, the more they are concentrated in the muslim world, or states adjacent to it the better (not that theyre less tragic, but that it indicates an inability of AQ to act beyond the muslim world)
2. Capture/killing of AQ leaders, followers, etc. Caveat that this needs to be compared to recruitment, etc
3. Disruption of AQ planning, financing, training, etc.
4. Progress on reconstruction in Afghanistan/Iraq
5. Number of states taken over by radical Islamists (EG if Pakistan is taken over)
6. Islamic world public opinion
7. Democratization in the Islamic world, especially in the Arab world.

Simply glancing at this list should indicate how difficult it is to measure progress - some of the items above are VERY hard to measure, and progress is very disputed.

Which is why I tend to think an overall assesment as requested by this thread is almost impossible. Better to try to assemble info on specific issues.

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by MrFun


Aren't you suppose to be working at the new job of yours?

They froze the job the same day I told you I was going to work.
****ing *******s.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


Gosh. You think?
And why do you single me out??
What's your problem with Drake?
So, because terrorism isn't wiped out universally, we shouldn't be grateful for the lull Park Avenue brings up?

Sorry. I think I'll continue to celebrate.

The problem with the lull is we dont know what theyre planning.

Some have pointed out that AQ tends to wait a year or two between major operations, so one year, or even two year lull doesnt tell you anything. In response its pointed out that post 9/11 is different from pre 9/11 - pre, they could afford to wait - post they were under global attack, not only in afghan but by LE around the world - they needed to follow up 9/11 with dramatic attacks while they still had capacity - and what have they achieved - ZERO attacks in the west, a big attack in Bali and Riyadh, smaller attacks in Jakarta, Tunisia, Pakistan, Kenya. Not enough to shake ANY muslim state, let alone to compensate for the effects of the WOT. In response to that it is claimed they ARE NOT losing capacity, they are recruiting to offset their losses, etc. And it does seem that right now they are focusing their efforts not on the West directly, but on Iraq in a campaign using the Zarqawi group, al Ansar, and newly formed Jihadi groups in the Sunni Triangle and coordinated by Said el Adel, operating either in Iran or in Iraq itself. If we keep up the lull, and lose Iraq to AQ, we're in a bad way.

Now im not pessimistic about this, but I would suggest its too early too celebrate.

[SlowwHand]

Every single day that goes by, I'll celebrate as a tiny victory.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Osweld


The best trolls are ones that the target can't reconize, and can even take as compliment. I'm not going to pretend that I know what's going through bodd's mind (thank god), but his post was just oozing with sarscasm to me.

I don't know...he's been consistently pro-american for a pretty long time now...

[chequita guevara]

What happened to evil international masterminds calling up the President beforehand, gloating, and demanding one million, er, one hundred billion dollars.
Muah hah hahahahahahah!

[MrFun]

Originally posted by SlowwHand


They froze the job the same day I told you I was going to work.
****ing *******s.

damn -- that would be very frustrating

I hope that somehow, you find a way to get back on your feet soon.

[Oerdin]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
Well there's certainly been no major terrorist attack in the West since September 11th 2001.

Congratulations. That is a great achievement.

*Cough* Bali *Cough*

[oedo]

well, there´s certainly no major terrorist attack in the west since the last terrorist attack. and most likely there will be no major terrorist attack in the west before the next major terrorist attack.

what a great achievement.

[Spiffor]

The real result:
- Al Qaeda has been weakened, and it is likely it will not be able to push forwards plans to do a Sept. 11 like attack. Mass terrorism is likely to be thwarted for a while.
- Most of the world takes the problem seriously now, and it is difficult for a terrorist organization to operate from a non-remote country.

The non-result:
Terrorism on a less massive scale still exists, and is even probably emboldened. Since the war in Iraq, many terrorist attacks have happened in the whole Muslim world. All were on par with the Pre-2001 Al Qaeda's attacks on US embassies. Besides, the Russians have their own problems with Chechen terrorists as well.

The counter-result:
The Arabs haven't seen your adventure positively. The whole Iraqi charade has displeased them very much, and I expect many more well-off Arabs give money to Islamic 'charities', or directly enlist in terrorist organizations. Your attempt to link the Iraq war with the war on terror makes the US much less credible than before, and makes the whole war on terror look like a tool servicing your power politics. International cooperation in the war on terror is likely to be much less enthusiastic.

[Caligastia]

I don't really consider Bali to be part of "the West".

[SlowwHand]

Bali isn't part of the West.
Oerdin is just a confused old man. Like Ming and RAH.

[Dis]

considering it took them like 5 years to plan 9/11, this means nothing.

It means we have to wait another 3 years to see if we had any effect.

[Lancer]

An unintended result, the US has a better idea who its friends aren't. France is the greatest disappointment. Though helping in Afghanistan, when the real heavy moving was needed they were pushing instead of pulling. The eastern europeans are the great astonishing over achievers, lovers of freedom, they have little to spare but gave their all.

As for the intended result, the US is safer, many bad guys are fertilizer. I like that because I remember Sept 11.

On a personal note, my father-in-law was carrying a bottle of French wine to the check out tonight, but thank God I stopped him in time.



USA

[Ted Striker]

USA and Coalition have killed and captured most of those cowardly ****ers. Still many more to kill but rest assured they will all die

Even those wimpy ass Al Queda wannabe Abu Sayeff morons losing out

There is no 70 virgins in heaven

Just you and a muthur****ing 6 feet of sand over your punk ass heads

USA will never forget what you cowards did to us. Until you are all dead.

USA!

UK!

Coalition!

[aneeshm]

*aneeshm sighs and shakes his head resignedly


I am saddened by the lack of awareness of a terrorists' biggest weapon among the same people waging a "War on Terror" . Their weapons are not bombs or an ideology , it's the element of surprise . Their aim is to make a society become paranoid , and subvert it's ideals , and to open it to blackmail . They cannot achieve this by consistent attacks . They can achieve this by organising a major strike , when wait until their prey becomes complacent . As soon as complacency and rational analysis of the situation (by the people) starts to make an appearance , they again do something like this .

Terrorism has failed to have such an impack on India because the society is resigned to terrorism , and resilent enough to overcome it without much fuss , as the more you react , the more reactive you become , and the more the initiative lies with the terrorists .

Most here do not realize thet the voilent reaction of the US , the attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq are actually liked by the terrorists . You , I am sorry to say , are playing into their hands . This is their objective . When the war on terror began , you had the sympathy of the world , and may more allies than you have now . Now , all you have is the support of your allies .

When you become complacent , there will be another event . Trust me .

[Solly]

I'd rather the coalition try to make the world a safer place for its citizens rather than sit back and carelessley enjoy the sympathy of two-faced nations.

[Lancer]

"I'd rather the coalition try to make the world a safer place for its citizens rather than sit back and carelessley enjoy the sympathy of two-faced nations."

Yea

Saw a bumper sticker a couple weeks ago...

" Too close for missiles, switching to cannons"

Mood of a nation. Get down in the mud with the bastards, and see who comes up. Even better, see which friends can stand getting a bit dirty... and who is too pretty for a brawl.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
Well there's certainly been no major terrorist attack in the West since September 11th 2001.

Congratulations. That is a great achievement.

Lets check that War on Terrorism tote-board!:

Terrorist attacks on US during the two-year war on terrorism: 0
Terrorist attacks on US during the seven years before the war on terrorism: 0

I see a re-elction slogan here: "Bush. He's doing stuff; you just can't tell."

Meanwhile, in the rest of the West, ETA activity does indeed seem to be down. Must be all that Basque profiling we're doing.

[Solly]

What's your point Rufus? Are you like Chegitz and disappointed another terrorist attack hasn't happened to prove you right?

That's all you seem to care about. I'm just glad we haven't lost another 2900 Americans.

[Oerdin]

Originally posted by Caligastia
I don't really consider Bali to be part of "the West".

The original claim was that there had been no major terror attacks since 9/11. You added on the part about it having to occur in the west expost facto.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
They froze the job the same day I told you I was going to work.
****ing *******s.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
What's your point Rufus? Are you like Chegitz and disappointed another terrorist attack hasn't happened to prove you right?

That's all you seem to care about. I'm just glad we haven't lost another 2900 Americans.

My point is that the absence of a terrorist attack during Bush's war on terror isn't proof that the Bush administration has accomplished anything, since there were long periods without terrorist attacks before they even took office. Or, as you should be learning in school: correlation is not causation.

[Oerdin]

There is the little fact that several 9/11 style terror attacks where spoiled. Anyone remember the plan to put posion gas in the London subway? Or the plan to fly a plane into the Vatican? Or the plane to sink ships in the straits of Gibraltar?

[Spiffor]

Rufus:
Oerdin is right in the meaning that Al Qaeda's structure has been completely disrupted (destroyed for a good part) by the war on terror, and their plans for a massive attack could not be executed in a timely manner as a result.

I don't think one should gloat the results on the war on terror, because it has achieved nothing long-term. But there are indeed some short-term results one should not simply ignore.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Spiffor
Rufus:
Oerdin is right in the meaning that Al Qaeda's structure has been completely disrupted (destroyed for a good part) by the war on terror, and their plans for a massive attack could not be executed in a timely manner as a result.

I don't think one should gloat the results on the war on terror, because it has achieved nothing long-term. But there are indeed some short-term results one should not simply ignore.

The Bush administration's policies have certainly made it unlikely that A-Qaeda will execute a massive terrorist attack on US soil anytime soon. The problem is, that's not their M.O. to begin with; they far prefer hitting Western targets in the non-Western world, and that has continued unabated.