================================================================================ Move 1 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:...*.. 3 4 :..*...:...*..: 4 5 ....*.....*.... 5 6 .$...$...$...$. 6 7 ..:...:.:...:.. 7 8 #..:...*...:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 0 ELORSTX NigelR 0 NigelP played: LOX 8G 20 pts [ERST] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. LOX 8G 20 pts +10.16 / 62.6% / 65.0% (2640) 002. LOX 8H 20 pts +5.03 / 60.7% / 61.9% (1640) 003. EXTOLS 8C 42 pts +4.39 / 60.2% / 63.4% (800) 004. OXTERS 8C 42 pts +4.19 / 59.9% / 62.6% (640) 005. LOX 8F 20 pts +2.83 / 59.8% / 60.5% (560) 006. OX 8H 18 pts +2.69 / 59.6% / 60.4% (560) 007. EXTOL 8H 26 pts +0.14 / 58.5% / 60.1% (480) 008. OXTER 8E 24 pts -1.81 / 58.3% / 59.7% (240) 009. LEX 8G 20 pts -1.29 / 57.9% / 60.0% (480) 010. LEX 8H 20 pts -1.34 / 57.6% / 58.5% (240) 011. OX 8G 18 pts -2.66 / 57.3% / 58.1% (240) 012. EXTOL 8F 24 pts -2.73 / 57.2% / 60.5% (240) 013. (Keep ELORST) 1A 0 pts -1.57 / 57.1% / 57.5% (480) 014. EXTOL 8E 24 pts -4.73 / 57.1% / 59.1% (240) 015. (Keep ERST) 1A 0 pts -3.27 / 56.9% / 56.5% (240) 016. EXTOL 8D 26 pts -4.55 / 56.8% / 58.8% (240) 017. EXTOL 8G 24 pts -5.88 / 56.6% / 58.2% (480) 018. OXTER 8H 26 pts -6.44 / 56.6% / 58.2% (240) 019. REX 8G 20 pts -5.68 / 56.5% / 57.0% (240) 020. OXTERS 8D 28 pts -7.80 / 56.1% / 58.4% (240) --- 48 different candidate moves simulated / 14130 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.00 ================================================================================ Move 1 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- first turn of game! ================================================================================ Move 2 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:...*.. 3 4 :..*...:...*..: 4 5 ....*.....*.... 5 6 .$...$...$...$. 6 7 ..:...:.:...:.. 7 8 #..:..LOX..:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 20 NigelR 0 CDDEOS? NigelR played: DECODeS 7H 74 pts Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. DECODeS 7H 74 pts +9.30 / 62.8% / 65.1% (2350) 002. DeCODES 7H 72 pts +6.52 / 61.9% / 64.9% (640) 003. CODDlES 7B 67 pts +5.72 / 61.4% / 65.3% (560) 004. DOC 7H 20 pts +4.77 / 61.3% / 64.2% (880) 005. DeCODES 7B 66 pts +4.38 / 61.1% / 63.0% (480) 006. SCOlDED 7B 70 pts +2.91 / 60.3% / 62.6% (480) 007. DiSCOED 7B 67 pts +2.01 / 59.7% / 62.2% (560) 008. DiSCOED 9H 72 pts +1.22 / 59.6% / 60.7% (480) 009. CLaDODES G7 65 pts +0.74 / 59.5% / 61.9% (560) 010. COD 9F 13 pts +1.27 / 59.1% / 63.4% (240) 011. DECODeS 7B 64 pts -0.60 / 58.7% / 60.0% (240) 012. OD 9G 10 pts -1.20 / 58.5% / 60.6% (240) 013. CLOD G7 11 pts -2.50 / 58.2% / 61.2% (480) 014. CODDLErS G4 64 pts -1.65 / 57.7% / 62.7% (240) 015. ODD H8 5 pts -3.90 / 57.4% / 62.1% (240) 016. DOCS 7H 21 pts -4.62 / 57.0% / 58.3% (320) 017. DOC H7 6 pts -5.95 / 56.6% / 60.0% (240) 018. ODD 7I 16 pts -5.62 / 56.5% / 59.5% (250) 019. ED 7G 10 pts -4.79 / 56.5% / 60.6% (240) 020. SOD 7H 17 pts -5.90 / 56.2% / 59.1% (240) --- 73 different candidate moves simulated / 14760 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.00 (0.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 2 / rack leave inference data Known played 'lox' Significantly more likely than chance: DLNQRSTZ? More likely than chance: DLMNQRSTZ? Less likely than chance: ABCEFGHIJKOPUVWY Much less likely than chance: BFPUVY Most likely to least likely: RNSTLOIEDA?MQGHZUWJKPCBF[VY] Average opponent rack is approximately 2.5 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 17.8% 1x: 1.0% 1x: 1.5% 1x: 18.4% 1x: 22.6% 1x: 0.1% 2x: 1.2% 2x: 0.3% 'G' 'H' 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 1x: 7.4% 1x: 6.8% 1x: 23.8% 1x: 3.1% 1x: 2.5% 1x: 25.0% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 0.9% 'M' 'N' 'O' 'P' 'Q' 'R' 1x: 9.4% 1x: 49.7% 1x: 24.4% 1x: 2.1% 1x: 7.6% 1x: 59.9% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 4.4% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 10.7% 3x: 0.3% 3x: 0.1% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'W' 'Z' '?' 1x: 31.5% 1x: 30.9% 1x: 3.7% 1x: 3.5% 1x: 6.2% 1x: 16.8% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 4.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 3 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:...*.. 3 4 :..*...:...*..: 4 5 ....*.....*.... 5 6 .$...$...$...$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX..:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 20 EPRRSTT NigelR 74 NigelP played: PROTEST K5 36 pts [R] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. PROTEST K5 36 pts -49.02 / 36.7% / 35.6% (2290) 002. REX I6 10 pts -52.27 / 35.9% / 34.4% (1680) 003. SPOTTER K5 36 pts -51.40 / 35.8% / 34.6% (1920) 004. TROP K5 12 pts -52.63 / 35.3% / 32.9% (560) 005. TEXT I6 12 pts -53.58 / 35.3% / 33.8% (880) 006. EXPERT I7 18 pts -55.59 / 34.7% / 31.3% (240) 007. RET M6 2 pts -54.36 / 34.7% / 33.2% (480) 008. SPORTER K5 36 pts -53.32 / 34.7% / 32.5% (480) 009. DORP H7 7 pts -56.24 / 34.6% / 33.6% (320) 010. ORT K7 3 pts -54.16 / 34.5% / 33.8% (240) 011. PREX I5 13 pts -58.62 / 33.4% / 31.9% (240) 012. PST N6 11 pts -57.42 / 33.0% / 32.8% (240) 013. PRETEXT I3 20 pts -58.55 / 32.8% / 31.0% (240) 014. STREPS N2 28 pts -57.98 / 32.7% / 32.2% (480) 015. POTTER K6 16 pts -58.05 / 32.5% / 29.5% (240) 016. RE M6 1 pt -62.26 / 32.1% / 30.5% (240) 017. EXERT I7 13 pts -63.42 / 31.9% / 29.2% (240) 018. PORT K6 6 pts -62.80 / 31.8% / 30.2% (240) 019. DOR H7 4 pts -62.18 / 31.7% / 28.6% (240) 020. PRETOR K3 16 pts -61.66 / 31.6% / 29.9% (240) --- 54 different candidate moves simulated / 15930 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.00 (0.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 3 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- last move was a bingo! ================================================================================ Move 4 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:...*.. 3 4 :..*...:...*..: 4 5 ....*.....P.... 5 6 .$...$...$R..$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.E.:.. 9 10 .$...$...$S..$. 10 11 ....*.....T.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 56 NigelR 74 ABBEIIO NigelR played: BABIED L2 28 pts [IO] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. BABIED L2 28 pts +2.46 / 61.0% / 63.5% (2490) 002. BABIES N2 24 pts -1.06 / 59.1% / 60.7% (1070) 003. BIO 6M 14 pts -1.60 / 58.9% / 60.8% (480) 004. BIB 6M 16 pts -4.04 / 57.7% / 60.3% (240) 005. BABIES 10F 18 pts -4.77 / 57.3% / 57.8% (240) 006. ROBE 6K 18 pts -6.23 / 56.6% / 59.6% (240) 007. BI J9 14 pts -7.40 / 56.6% / 59.6% (480) 008. OBIA L2 16 pts -6.25 / 56.6% / 58.1% (800) 009. OBIA 6E 16 pts -8.16 / 56.2% / 57.2% (480) 010. BOA J9 17 pts -6.67 / 55.9% / 59.3% (240) 011. BISE 10I 8 pts -9.58 / 55.7% / 57.4% (240) 012. IBEX I5 13 pts -11.38 / 55.2% / 57.6% (240) 013. SIBB 10K 14 pts -9.47 / 55.0% / 58.2% (240) 014. AI J9 10 pts -9.06 / 54.9% / 55.8% (240) 015. BIO J3 9 pts -9.74 / 54.9% / 56.2% (240) 016. BI L4 12 pts -9.02 / 54.8% / 56.1% (480) 017. BIOS 10H 8 pts -10.49 / 54.8% / 56.3% (480) 018. OI 6N 8 pts -11.19 / 54.8% / 56.9% (240) 019. BI 6M 13 pts -9.96 / 54.8% / 56.8% (240) 020. RIB 6K 11 pts -11.49 / 54.4% / 55.2% (240) --- 65 different candidate moves simulated / 14570 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.00 (0.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 4 / rack leave inference data Known played 'prtest' Significantly more likely than chance: DFGHKPQRTVYZ More likely than chance: DFGHKPQRTVYZ Less likely than chance: ACEIJLMNOSUW? Much less likely than chance: ACEIJLMNOSUW? Most likely to least likely: RTGDFHVYKPQZ[ACEIJLMNOSUW?] Average opponent rack is approximately 2.1 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'D' 'F' 'G' 'H' 'K' 'P' 1x: 7.7% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 11.5% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 3.8% 1x: 3.8% 'Q' 'R' 'T' 'V' 'Y' 'Z' 1x: 3.8% 1x: 19.2% 1x: 15.4% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 3.8% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 5 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$.B.*. 2 3 ..*...:.:..A*.. 3 4 :..*...:...B..: 4 5 ....*.....PI... 5 6 .$...$...$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.E.:.. 9 10 .$...$...$S..$. 10 11 ....*.....T.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 56 AAACDLR NigelR 102 NigelP played: CABAL 2J 30 pts [ADR] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. CABAL 2J 30 pts -42.66 / 39.0% / 38.4% (2640) 002. CABALA 2J 32 pts -48.17 / 36.4% / 35.3% (1280) 003. LAC M3 25 pts -50.21 / 35.7% / 35.0% (880) 004. ALA M2 18 pts -54.51 / 33.5% / 30.6% (480) 005. AA M2 12 pts -55.66 / 33.2% / 31.2% (480) 006. BAA 2L 10 pts -58.08 / 33.1% / 30.5% (240) 007. RAD M1 18 pts -55.50 / 32.9% / 30.7% (480) 008. AA M3 12 pts -56.02 / 32.7% / 31.6% (480) 009. CRAALS N2 20 pts -55.23 / 32.6% / 31.9% (480) 010. AD M2 16 pts -57.20 / 32.5% / 30.4% (240) 011. LABRA 2J 18 pts -57.85 / 32.4% / 29.7% (240) 012. CLAD 6F 28 pts -57.61 / 32.1% / 31.0% (480) 013. LABARA 2J 20 pts -58.89 / 31.7% / 29.1% (240) 014. CRAAL 6E 23 pts -59.15 / 31.5% / 30.5% (560) 015. AL 6H 16 pts -59.35 / 31.2% / 30.2% (240) 016. ACED M5 16 pts -61.93 / 31.2% / 29.4% (240) 017. AAL 6G 17 pts -58.90 / 31.1% / 30.9% (240) 018. CAD M1 22 pts -61.42 / 30.8% / 28.3% (240) 019. LAD 6G 19 pts -62.99 / 30.5% / 27.3% (240) 020. AA M4 11 pts -63.00 / 30.4% / 28.8% (240) --- 64 different candidate moves simulated / 14910 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.00 (0.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 5 / rack leave inference data Known played 'babie' More likely than chance: ADEFGIMNOPQUVW Less likely than chance: HJKLRSTYZ? Much less likely than chance: KYZ Most likely to least likely: EINOAUTRGFMWVHLSPQDJ?KYZ Average opponent rack is approximately 3.2 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 14.5% 1x: 2.9% 1x: 26.5% 1x: 6.2% 1x: 8.3% 1x: 5.5% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 1.7% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.0% 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 23.7% 1x: 2.7% 1x: 0.1% 1x: 5.1% 1x: 5.9% 1x: 18.1% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.7% 'O' 'P' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 1x: 17.2% 1x: 3.1% 1x: 3.1% 1x: 10.3% 1x: 4.5% 1x: 10.7% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.3% 'U' 'V' 'W' '?' 1x: 12.2% 1x: 5.8% 1x: 5.9% 1x: 1.6% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 6 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...CABAL. 2 3 ..*...:.:..A*.. 3 4 :..*...:...B..: 4 5 ....*.....PI... 5 6 .$...$...$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.E.:.. 9 10 .$...$...$S..$. 10 11 ....*.....T.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 86 NigelR 102 AAIILNO NigelR played: AALII O1 28 pts [NO] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. NAOI O1 25 pts +9.61 / 64.6% / 67.7% (2990) PLAYED 002. AALII O1 28 pts +8.03 / 63.9% / 66.6% (1760) 003. LANAI O1 28 pts +3.36 / 61.8% / 64.9% (560) 004. AALII 3K 18 pts +3.85 / 61.8% / 65.0% (480) 005. LANAI 3K 18 pts +2.28 / 61.2% / 62.3% (240) 006. AIOLI J10 15 pts +1.42 / 60.7% / 64.0% (560) 007. NAIL O1 25 pts +0.43 / 60.4% / 63.0% (560) 008. AIOLI L11 14 pts -0.70 / 60.4% / 63.8% (240) 009. ANOA M2 21 pts +1.15 / 60.4% / 61.7% (240) 010. AIOLI O2 16 pts -2.72 / 59.5% / 61.8% (240) 011. LAIN O1 25 pts -3.15 / 59.3% / 60.6% (240) 012. ALOIN O2 16 pts -4.65 / 59.3% / 60.5% (240) 013. AI 6N 8 pts -1.77 / 59.2% / 59.7% (560) 014. AALII O2 16 pts -2.60 / 58.8% / 60.1% (480) 015. ALOIN L11 14 pts -3.72 / 58.7% / 60.6% (240) 016. LIAISON 10G 9 pts -2.75 / 58.5% / 62.0% (240) 017. NALA O1 25 pts -4.67 / 58.2% / 58.6% (240) 018. AI J9 10 pts -5.43 / 57.8% / 59.6% (240) 019. ANI O2 14 pts -6.07 / 57.8% / 58.1% (240) 020. AALII L11 14 pts -4.44 / 57.5% / 57.8% (320) --- 67 different candidate moves simulated / 16770 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.69 (0.23 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 6 / rack leave inference data Known played 'caal' Significantly more likely than chance: AFGLQ More likely than chance: ADFGILOQRUV Less likely than chance: EHJKMNPSTWYZ? Much less likely than chance: J? Most likely to least likely: EAIORUGNTFDVHSWYQLMPZKJ? Average opponent rack is approximately 3.1 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 26.7% 1x: 9.8% 1x: 28.8% 1x: 11.8% 1x: 17.1% 1x: 7.7% 2x: 1.4% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 2.1% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.6% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.3% 3x: 0.0% 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 25.8% 1x: 0.8% 1x: 1.4% 1x: 6.5% 1x: 4.4% 1x: 16.9% 2x: 1.9% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.9% 3x: 0.1% 'O' 'P' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 1x: 25.7% 1x: 4.1% 1x: 6.7% 1x: 21.3% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 15.0% 2x: 2.4% 2x: 1.9% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.7% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'U' 'V' 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 19.1% 1x: 9.4% 1x: 7.5% 1x: 6.8% 1x: 3.9% 1x: 0.1% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 7 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..A*.L 3 4 :..*...:...B..I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...$...$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.E.:.. 9 10 .$...$...$S..$. 10 11 ....*.....T.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 86 ADENRVY NigelR 130 NigelP played: VARY M1 31 pts [ADEN] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. VARY M1 31 pts -39.59 / 40.1% / 39.0% (2930) 002. DAY 3K 27 pts -42.99 / 38.6% / 37.0% (1770) 003. DAY M1 24 pts -43.81 / 38.6% / 37.5% (480) 004. NAY 3K 24 pts -46.26 / 37.7% / 35.0% (480) 005. ANY M2 23 pts -45.16 / 37.6% / 35.9% (480) 006. AY 3L 20 pts -45.21 / 37.5% / 35.2% (480) 007. EVERY M5 25 pts -47.07 / 36.1% / 36.4% (480) 008. RAY M1 22 pts -48.76 / 35.6% / 34.5% (480) 009. RAY 3K 24 pts -51.25 / 35.2% / 34.5% (240) 010. NAY M1 22 pts -51.94 / 34.9% / 34.4% (240) 011. YAR 3K 21 pts -50.27 / 34.7% / 35.5% (240) 012. ENVY 9K 14 pts -51.33 / 34.6% / 32.0% (240) 013. VANE M1 22 pts -50.84 / 34.3% / 33.3% (560) 014. EVER M5 17 pts -54.19 / 34.0% / 33.5% (240) 015. VAN M1 16 pts -52.83 / 33.9% / 31.9% (240) 016. RAYA M1 28 pts -51.20 / 33.9% / 33.6% (560) 017. VERDANT 11E 22 pts -51.03 / 33.8% / 33.6% (240) 018. VARA M1 22 pts -53.10 / 33.5% / 33.3% (240) 019. AYE M2 26 pts -52.41 / 33.2% / 31.9% (240) 020. DAN 3K 15 pts -54.85 / 33.1% / 33.3% (240) --- 67 different candidate moves simulated / 15660 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 0.69 (0.23 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 7 / rack leave inference data Known played 'aalii' More likely than chance: AEILOSTUWY Less likely than chance: DFGHJKMNPQRVZ? Much less likely than chance: J Most likely to least likely: EIONUTRAGSWHFMLYQPDK?VZJ Average opponent rack is approximately 2.2 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 11.0% 1x: 2.7% 1x: 27.6% 1x: 5.1% 1x: 8.8% 1x: 5.6% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 1.7% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.2% 'I' 'K' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 1x: 21.4% 1x: 2.2% 1x: 3.7% 1x: 3.9% 1x: 14.3% 1x: 21.4% 2x: 0.9% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 0.9% 'P' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 2.9% 1x: 3.2% 1x: 12.0% 1x: 6.9% 1x: 12.8% 1x: 14.3% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 0.4% 'V' 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 2.1% 1x: 6.3% 1x: 3.2% 1x: 1.2% 1x: 2.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 8 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..AR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...$...$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.E.:.. 9 10 .$...$...$S..$. 10 11 ....*.....T.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 117 NigelR 130 FHIINOT NigelR played: FOIN L9 23 pts [HIT] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. FOH 8M 33 pts +8.59 / 64.3% / 68.3% (2680) PLAYED 002. FOIN L9 23 pts +5.30 / 62.9% / 66.0% (1520) 003. FIN 8M 24 pts +5.39 / 62.7% / 64.8% (1360) 004. FIT 8M 24 pts +5.14 / 62.6% / 65.9% (1520) 005. FOIN J9 20 pts +4.50 / 62.4% / 65.8% (880) 006. THIO L9 23 pts +3.04 / 61.7% / 64.7% (880) 007. HIT 8M 24 pts +0.76 / 61.0% / 63.9% (480) 008. HINT L10 21 pts +1.50 / 60.7% / 63.1% (240) 009. IFS 10I 14 pts -0.53 / 60.2% / 62.9% (240) 010. HIN 8M 24 pts +1.13 / 60.1% / 64.3% (240) 011. HIT L10 19 pts +0.28 / 60.1% / 61.9% (240) 012. HOT 8M 24 pts -0.61 / 59.7% / 62.6% (480) 013. SHIFT N7 19 pts -3.17 / 59.2% / 62.5% (240) 014. OF 8N 17 pts -1.06 / 59.1% / 61.8% (240) 015. THIN L9 23 pts -2.15 / 58.9% / 61.9% (480) 016. FON 8M 24 pts -1.94 / 58.8% / 61.4% (240) 017. HO 8N 20 pts -4.19 / 58.5% / 62.4% (240) 018. OHS N5 16 pts -3.84 / 58.5% / 61.2% (240) 019. HI J9 16 pts -3.28 / 58.2% / 60.5% (240) 020. IN 9G 10 pts -6.25 / 57.6% / 60.2% (240) --- 67 different candidate moves simulated / 17760 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 0.00 (0.00 avg.) NigelR 2.15 (0.54 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 8 / rack leave inference data Known played 'vry' Significantly more likely than chance: DFGHJKLNQRST? More likely than chance: DFGHJKLNQRSTU? Less likely than chance: AEIMOPVWYZ Much less likely than chance: PVWYZ Most likely to least likely: RNTGUADEFQSHIJKLMO?PVWYZ Average opponent rack is approximately 0.8 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 20.0% 1x: 20.0% 1x: 20.0% 1x: 20.0% 1x: 30.0% 1x: 10.0% 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 10.0% 1x: 10.0% 1x: 10.0% 1x: 10.0% 1x: 10.0% 1x: 40.0% 'O' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 10.0% 1x: 20.0% 1x: 50.0% 1x: 20.0% 1x: 40.0% 1x: 30.0% 2x: 10.0% '?' 1x: 10.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 9 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..AR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...$...$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.. 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$. 10 11 ....*.....TI... 11 12 :..*...:...N..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 117 ADEINNV NigelR 153 NigelP played: VIA 6F 18 pts [DENN] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. NEVI M11 19 pts -40.75 / 38.9% / 37.3% (2830) 002. NAVE M11 19 pts -47.23 / 35.7% / 33.9% (1280) 003. VINA 6E 13 pts -48.40 / 35.6% / 31.3% (320) 004. VENIN 9D 16 pts -47.26 / 35.5% / 33.7% (480) 005. VAN 9F 14 pts -48.98 / 34.6% / 33.4% (480) 006. DIN 8M 16 pts -48.84 / 34.4% / 33.7% (480) PLAYED 007. VIA 6F 18 pts -50.76 / 33.9% / 33.5% (560) 008. VEXED I6 17 pts -49.86 / 33.6% / 33.0% (480) 009. DEAN M10 19 pts -50.33 / 33.6% / 32.1% (240) 010. IN 9G 10 pts -52.78 / 33.5% / 31.9% (240) 011. NAN M11 11 pts -51.39 / 33.5% / 30.9% (240) 012. VAIN 9E 15 pts -53.44 / 33.0% / 32.6% (320) 013. VINA 9D 11 pts -55.07 / 32.7% / 31.1% (240) 014. AD 6H 18 pts -54.37 / 32.5% / 31.6% (240) 015. DEVA 6E 14 pts -52.60 / 32.1% / 31.2% (240) 016. NAEVI M11 21 pts -53.99 / 32.1% / 31.0% (240) 017. VENA 6E 13 pts -53.15 / 32.0% / 31.4% (240) 018. NAN 9F 11 pts -55.00 / 32.0% / 28.9% (320) 019. DIVAN 9D 17 pts -54.34 / 31.9% / 29.5% (240) 020. VENISON 10G 12 pts -53.99 / 31.9% / 28.5% (240) --- 63 different candidate moves simulated / 16410 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 5.06 (1.01 avg.) NigelR 2.15 (0.54 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 9 / rack leave inference data Known played 'foin' Significantly more likely than chance: INO More likely than chance: AEFIKNOQWY Less likely than chance: DGHJLMPRSTUZ? Much less likely than chance: Z Most likely to least likely: EOINATURWMHYKQFPJSGLD?Z Average opponent rack is approximately 2.2 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 18.5% 1x: 3.4% 1x: 41.8% 1x: 5.4% 1x: 4.5% 1x: 7.8% 2x: 0.8% 2x: 6.7% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.4% 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 30.4% 1x: 5.1% 1x: 5.9% 1x: 4.1% 1x: 8.9% 1x: 21.6% 2x: 2.1% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 1.0% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'O' 'P' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 1x: 36.7% 1x: 5.2% 1x: 5.9% 1x: 17.4% 1x: 4.9% 1x: 18.4% 2x: 3.4% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.9% 3x: 0.1% 'U' 'W' 'Y' '?' 1x: 18.2% 1x: 10.9% 1x: 5.9% 1x: 1.4% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 10 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..AR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.. 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$. 10 11 ....*.....TI... 11 12 :..*...:...N..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 135 NigelR 153 GHILOTT NigelR played: HOG 8M 27 pts [ILTT] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. HOT 8M 24 pts +13.78 / 66.8% / 71.6% (3570) 002. THO 8M 24 pts +12.07 / 65.9% / 70.7% (1760) PLAYED 003. HOG 8M 27 pts +10.40 / 65.3% / 69.8% (1280) 004. HIT 8M 24 pts +9.30 / 65.1% / 69.3% (1280) 005. LOTH M11 19 pts +8.63 / 64.4% / 67.1% (480) 006. TOG 8M 15 pts +6.56 / 63.4% / 67.6% (240) 007. GELT M6 16 pts +5.27 / 63.3% / 67.1% (480) 008. SIGHT N7 17 pts +4.30 / 62.5% / 65.5% (240) 009. LOT 8M 12 pts +4.88 / 62.4% / 65.4% (560) 010. LOT M11 11 pts +3.15 / 61.7% / 64.1% (240) 011. TOG M11 13 pts +5.47 / 61.5% / 65.6% (240) 012. LOTI M11 13 pts +2.02 / 61.5% / 65.7% (480) 013. TIL 8M 12 pts +2.27 / 61.5% / 65.5% (320) 014. HO 8N 20 pts +0.94 / 61.2% / 63.6% (240) 015. TOT 8M 12 pts +2.23 / 60.7% / 64.4% (240) 016. TIT 8M 12 pts +0.75 / 60.5% / 63.6% (240) 017. LOG 8M 15 pts +2.74 / 60.5% / 63.6% (240) 018. TOT M11 11 pts +0.52 / 60.2% / 62.7% (240) 019. LEX I6 17 pts +0.41 / 60.1% / 63.1% (560) 020. LIT 8M 12 pts +0.76 / 59.9% / 64.6% (320) --- 67 different candidate moves simulated / 18450 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 5.06 (1.01 avg.) NigelR 3.69 (0.74 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 10 / rack leave inference data Known played 'via' Significantly more likely than chance: AIST? More likely than chance: AIOPSTU? Less likely than chance: DEFGHJKMNQRWYZ Much less likely than chance: JKW Most likely to least likely: IAEOURTSND?PGMHFQYZWJK Average opponent rack is approximately 0.9 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 39.7% 1x: 13.4% 1x: 36.7% 1x: 5.0% 1x: 6.4% 1x: 5.5% 2x: 2.5% 2x: 1.8% 2x: 0.1% 'I' 'J' 'K' 'M' 'N' 'O' 1x: 75.5% 1x: 1.3% 1x: 1.2% 1x: 6.3% 1x: 18.3% 1x: 31.3% 2x: 15.8% 2x: 2.9% 3x: 1.3% 3x: 0.3% 'P' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 8.7% 1x: 4.3% 1x: 24.0% 1x: 19.3% 1x: 22.6% 1x: 30.2% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 3.3% 3x: 0.1% 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 2.1% 1x: 3.4% 1x: 2.2% 1x: 12.8% 2x: 0.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 11 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..AR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.. 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$. 10 11 ....*.....TI... 11 12 :..*...:...N..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 135 DENNPRU NigelR 180 NigelP played: PUN M11 17 pts [DENR] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. UPEND M10 26 pts -57.06 / 30.2% / 26.6% (2210) 002. NURD M11 15 pts -60.02 / 29.0% / 26.0% (1050) 003. NUN M11 11 pts -60.50 / 28.6% / 25.9% (1040) PLAYED 004. PUN M11 17 pts -61.58 / 28.2% / 23.3% (640) 005. GUNNED O8 9 pts -61.37 / 28.0% / 25.4% (560) 006. RESOUND 10I 12 pts -62.48 / 27.3% / 23.9% (240) 007. PEN M11 17 pts -64.32 / 27.3% / 23.5% (480) 008. NAP K1 10 pts -64.14 / 27.1% / 25.5% (240) 009. GUNNER O8 8 pts -64.72 / 26.9% / 24.6% (240) 010. PUD M11 19 pts -65.06 / 26.9% / 25.0% (560) 011. SOUND 10K 8 pts -63.00 / 26.9% / 22.2% (240) 012. UNPERSON 10F 14 pts -63.38 / 26.8% / 21.7% (240) 013. PEND M11 21 pts -65.94 / 26.5% / 21.9% (480) 014. UN M10 8 pts -66.95 / 26.1% / 23.0% (240) 015. NERD M11 15 pts -67.46 / 25.8% / 23.1% (240) 016. URN M12 8 pts -68.59 / 25.6% / 21.3% (240) 017. NUDE M11 15 pts -67.50 / 25.3% / 21.5% (240) 018. NUDER M11 17 pts -70.01 / 25.0% / 23.2% (240) 019. SOUNDER N7 10 pts -69.18 / 24.4% / 20.2% (240) 020. PEH M6 12 pts -72.51 / 24.0% / 21.4% (240) --- 58 different candidate moves simulated / 14030 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 7.05 (1.17 avg.) NigelR 3.69 (0.74 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 11 / rack leave inference data Known played 'hog' Significantly more likely than chance: ADILR More likely than chance: ADILQRST? Less likely than chance: EFGHJKMNOUWYZ Much less likely than chance: JWY Most likely to least likely: EIARTLODSNUMQG?KFHZYWJ Average opponent rack is approximately 2 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 38.4% 1x: 19.9% 1x: 49.3% 1x: 3.9% 1x: 9.5% 1x: 3.6% 2x: 1.7% 2x: 8.1% 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 41.5% 1x: 0.8% 1x: 4.2% 1x: 25.8% 1x: 9.8% 1x: 13.4% 2x: 9.2% 2x: 0.6% 3x: 2.0% 4x: 0.3% 'O' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 21.8% 1x: 9.8% 1x: 38.4% 1x: 19.3% 1x: 31.7% 1x: 12.6% 2x: 0.8% 2x: 3.6% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 2.2% 2x: 0.8% 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 1.4% 1x: 2.0% 1x: 3.4% 1x: 9.5% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 12 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..AR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.. 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$. 10 11 ....*.....TIP.. 11 12 :..*...:...NU.: 12 13 ..*...:.:...N.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 152 NigelR 180 GILNRTT NigelR played: GLINT 14I 14 pts [RT] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. GLINT 14I 14 pts +2.30 / 61.1% / 64.4% (3110) 002. GILT 14J 15 pts +1.67 / 60.8% / 64.1% (2480) 003. GIRT 14J 15 pts +0.73 / 60.2% / 63.4% (1280) 004. GRIT 14J 15 pts -2.12 / 59.0% / 62.3% (480) 005. TRIVIAL 6C 19 pts -6.30 / 57.5% / 60.8% (720) 006. RAT K1 6 pts -4.73 / 57.5% / 59.2% (480) 007. TILT 14J 12 pts -3.75 / 57.0% / 62.8% (240) 008. SORT N7 6 pts -5.98 / 56.6% / 57.7% (560) 009. LIT N10 14 pts -6.62 / 55.6% / 59.7% (240) 010. LAT K1 6 pts -6.42 / 55.5% / 58.0% (240) 011. RING 14J 14 pts -8.44 / 55.4% / 58.4% (560) 012. LEX I6 16 pts -7.60 / 55.3% / 58.0% (480) 013. LING 14J 14 pts -8.73 / 54.9% / 56.4% (240) 014. TING 14J 14 pts -8.02 / 54.6% / 59.2% (240) 015. GIN N10 17 pts -8.68 / 54.5% / 56.7% (240) 016. TRIG 14J 14 pts -8.66 / 54.2% / 57.7% (240) 017. LIN N10 14 pts -11.76 / 53.8% / 53.3% (240) 018. TINT 14J 12 pts -12.40 / 53.3% / 55.2% (240) 019. EXING I7 13 pts -13.78 / 53.1% / 54.9% (240) 020. ADORING H6 11 pts -13.49 / 53.1% / 55.0% (240) --- 57 different candidate moves simulated / 17150 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 7.05 (1.17 avg.) NigelR 4.91 (0.82 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 12 / rack leave inference data Known played 'pun' Significantly more likely than chance: ANRST? More likely than chance: ANRST? Less likely than chance: DEFGHIJKMOQUWYZ Much less likely than chance: FJK Most likely to least likely: NEATRS?IUDMOWGHQYZJKF Average opponent rack is approximately 8 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'G' 'H' 'I' 1x: 41.5% 1x: 11.3% 1x: 47.2% 1x: 3.8% 1x: 3.8% 1x: 20.8% 2x: 1.9% 'J' 'K' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 1x: 1.9% 1x: 1.9% 1x: 11.3% 1x: 75.5% 1x: 9.4% 1x: 3.8% 2x: 3.8% 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'W' 'Y' 1x: 32.1% 1x: 30.2% 1x: 41.5% 1x: 15.1% 1x: 5.7% 1x: 3.8% 2x: 3.8% 'Z' '?' 1x: 3.8% 1x: 26.4% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 13 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:..AR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.. 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$. 10 11 ....*.....TIP.. 11 12 :..*...:...NU.: 12 13 ..*...:.:...N.. 13 14 .*...$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 152 DEMNRUW NigelR 194 NigelP played: MAW K1 14 pts [DENRU] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. MAW K1 14 pts -62.89 / 27.0% / 23.1% (2480) 002. GERUND O8 9 pts -62.52 / 25.7% / 23.5% (2540) 003. MEADOW H4 15 pts -66.30 / 25.1% / 19.8% (880) 004. WRUNG I10 10 pts -64.70 / 25.1% / 21.0% (480) 005. GEUM O8 7 pts -66.81 / 24.9% / 22.2% (240) 006. DAW K1 13 pts -67.80 / 24.8% / 20.5% (480) 007. GRUM O8 7 pts -65.94 / 24.7% / 21.2% (560) 008. RAW K1 12 pts -66.68 / 24.6% / 21.5% (560) 009. GRUME O8 9 pts -65.57 / 24.3% / 21.9% (900) 010. CWM J2 10 pts -68.04 / 24.0% / 19.5% (480) 011. GREW O8 8 pts -68.09 / 23.9% / 21.4% (240) 012. NAW K1 12 pts -69.77 / 23.9% / 18.7% (240) 013. MESON N5 13 pts -68.62 / 23.6% / 21.4% (320) 014. (Exchange all) 1A 0 pts -70.79 / 23.3% / 19.3% (240) 015. WELD J12 8 pts -67.38 / 23.2% / 19.5% (480) 016. NU 15K 8 pts -72.16 / 22.7% / 20.7% (240) 017. SOWN N7 9 pts -67.82 / 22.5% / 18.2% (240) 018. RAM K1 10 pts -70.81 / 22.4% / 18.4% (480) 019. AW K2 11 pts -72.45 / 22.2% / 18.8% (240) 020. LEMUR G8 8 pts -68.98 / 22.2% / 17.6% (240) --- 55 different candidate moves simulated / 17440 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 7.05 (1.01 avg.) NigelR 4.91 (0.82 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 13 / rack leave inference data Known played 'glint' Significantly more likely than chance: DMNRT More likely than chance: DGMNRT Less likely than chance: AEFHIJKOQSUWYZ? Much less likely than chance: AEFHIJKOQSUWYZ? Most likely to least likely: TNRDMG[AEFHIJKOQSUWYZ?] Average opponent rack is approximately 1.7 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'D' 'G' 'M' 'N' 'R' 'T' 1x: 22.0% 1x: 4.9% 1x: 14.6% 1x: 46.3% 1x: 43.9% 1x: 58.5% 2x: 2.4% 2x: 7.3% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 14 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.. 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$. 10 11 ....*.....TIP.. 11 12 :..*...:...NU.: 12 13 ..*...:.:...N.. 13 14 .*...$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 166 NigelR 194 AEEJKRT NigelR played: GREEK O8 15 pts [AJT] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. GREEK O8 15 pts +6.90 / 64.2% / 68.6% (2990) 002. GATER O8 7 pts +5.48 / 62.9% / 66.6% (1280) 003. GREAT O8 7 pts +2.80 / 61.8% / 66.2% (480) 004. GREET O8 7 pts +2.04 / 61.0% / 63.8% (740) 005. GATE O8 5 pts -1.06 / 59.0% / 61.2% (480) 006. SOAK N7 18 pts -2.11 / 58.9% / 62.4% (480) 007. TA N12 7 pts -3.41 / 58.0% / 59.8% (480) 008. KEA 13G 17 pts -4.16 / 56.8% / 59.9% (480) 009. SOKE N7 10 pts -5.08 / 56.7% / 60.4% (240) 010. ATE 15J 11 pts -5.60 / 56.3% / 59.6% (480) 011. NUKE 12L 9 pts -7.08 / 56.0% / 58.2% (480) 012. TARGE I11 7 pts -7.13 / 55.5% / 56.4% (240) 013. TEA 13G 9 pts -9.98 / 55.2% / 57.9% (240) 014. EXERT I7 13 pts -10.41 / 54.8% / 59.1% (480) 015. TA 15K 8 pts -8.86 / 54.8% / 56.5% (240) 016. KELT J12 8 pts -11.25 / 54.1% / 55.7% (240) 017. KEPI 5I 10 pts -11.18 / 54.0% / 54.8% (240) 018. ERA 13G 9 pts -10.74 / 53.9% / 57.1% (240) 019. EXTRA I7 13 pts -10.73 / 53.5% / 54.0% (240) 020. TRAVE F3 8 pts -14.94 / 53.3% / 56.2% (240) --- 60 different candidate moves simulated / 15330 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 7.05 (1.01 avg.) NigelR 4.91 (0.70 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 14 / rack leave inference data Known played 'mw' Significantly more likely than chance: DGNRST? More likely than chance: DGIMNQRST? Less likely than chance: AEFHOUWYZ Much less likely than chance: HOUY Most likely to least likely: TNR?EDISGAMQOFUWZHY Average opponent rack is approximately 14.8 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'I' 1x: 12.9% 1x: 38.7% 1x: 41.9% 1x: 6.5% 1x: 25.8% 1x: 38.7% 2x: 6.5% 2x: 3.2% 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 1x: 12.9% 1x: 58.1% 1x: 9.7% 1x: 12.9% 1x: 58.1% 1x: 35.5% 2x: 3.2% 'T' 'U' 'W' 'Z' '?' 1x: 71.0% 1x: 3.2% 1x: 3.2% 1x: 3.2% 1x: 45.2% 2x: 9.7% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$E 10 11 ....*.....TIP.E 11 12 :..*...:...NU.K 12 13 ..*...:.:...N.. 13 14 .*...$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 166 DENORTU NigelR 209 NigelP played: ENDURO 15D 27 pts [T] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. OUD 15M 19 pts -47.25 / 33.5% / 29.9% (3680) PLAYED 002. ENDURO 15D 27 pts -46.81 / 32.5% / 29.2% (2090) 003. DUO 15K 18 pts -51.84 / 30.7% / 26.9% (560) 004. OUT 15M 16 pts -53.60 / 29.9% / 26.3% (640) 005. OUR 15M 16 pts -53.69 / 29.9% / 24.9% (560) 006. EXEUNT I7 14 pts -53.71 / 29.4% / 25.7% (560) 007. NU 15K 8 pts -55.87 / 29.3% / 25.1% (480) 008. ORT 15M 16 pts -54.44 / 29.3% / 26.3% (240) 009. UNDO 15F 18 pts -53.17 / 29.0% / 24.7% (480) 010. ODE 15M 19 pts -55.33 / 28.9% / 25.1% (240) 011. TO 15K 8 pts -58.65 / 28.4% / 23.2% (240) 012. UDO 15G 15 pts -56.55 / 28.2% / 24.2% (480) 013. NE 10N 4 pts -58.55 / 28.1% / 22.1% (240) 014. UNTO 15F 15 pts -54.53 / 27.8% / 24.5% (240) 015. UREDO 15E 21 pts -55.27 / 27.7% / 24.3% (480) 016. DUO 15G 15 pts -56.02 / 27.6% / 23.5% (240) 017. EXERT I7 13 pts -58.43 / 27.3% / 21.6% (240) 018. DURO 15F 18 pts -56.12 / 27.2% / 23.6% (560) 019. ONE 15M 16 pts -58.78 / 26.9% / 23.4% (240) 020. ODE 15J 13 pts -58.23 / 26.8% / 23.5% (480) --- 62 different candidate moves simulated / 18010 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 8.10 (1.01 avg.) NigelR 4.91 (0.70 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 15 / rack leave inference data Known played 'reek' Significantly more likely than chance: EHJMRZ More likely than chance: EGHJMNQRUZ Less likely than chance: ADFIOSTWY? Much less likely than chance: OY? Most likely to least likely: ERAIUNTZJMHQGWSDF?OY Average opponent rack is approximately 1.3 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 20.7% 1x: 7.6% 1x: 70.5% 1x: 6.6% 1x: 9.9% 1x: 10.8% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 14.5% 3x: 0.7% 'I' 'J' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 1x: 17.6% 1x: 11.5% 1x: 11.0% 1x: 16.6% 1x: 0.4% 1x: 10.2% 2x: 0.4% 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'W' 'Z' 1x: 26.6% 1x: 7.9% 1x: 15.4% 1x: 17.2% 1x: 8.3% 1x: 12.1% 2x: 1.0% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 0.4% '?' 1x: 1.5% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 16 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$E 10 11 ....*.....TIP.E 11 12 :..*...:...NU.K 12 13 ..*...:.:...N.. 13 14 .*...$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 193 NigelR 209 AAEIJRT NigelR played: AJEE D12 22 pts [AIRT] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. TERAI 14B 23 pts +10.12 / 67.9% / 74.2% (2490) 002. ATRIA 14B 23 pts +8.72 / 66.9% / 73.3% (1610) 003. RAIA 14C 15 pts +4.00 / 64.7% / 71.5% (560) 004. TIARA 13E 12 pts +4.21 / 64.4% / 70.0% (480) 005. RAI 14D 14 pts +3.06 / 64.4% / 69.2% (560) 006. JAR 14B 22 pts +4.05 / 64.2% / 68.8% (480) PLAYED 007. AJEE D12 22 pts +5.78 / 64.1% / 71.2% (560) 008. RIATA 13E 12 pts +3.20 / 63.8% / 67.6% (320) 009. JEE D13 10 pts +5.60 / 63.8% / 70.3% (480) 010. REI 14D 14 pts +3.61 / 62.9% / 67.3% (320) 011. IRATE 13E 12 pts +0.01 / 62.2% / 66.5% (240) 012. AI 14E 11 pts -0.03 / 62.2% / 66.5% (240) 013. JEU G13 18 pts +1.21 / 61.7% / 64.8% (240) 014. RAJA 13F 18 pts -0.63 / 61.6% / 67.2% (240) 015. RETIA 13E 12 pts +0.64 / 61.4% / 65.7% (240) 016. ATRIA 13E 12 pts -1.02 / 61.4% / 64.6% (240) 017. TIRE 13F 11 pts -0.80 / 61.1% / 66.7% (480) 018. RIA 14D 14 pts +0.73 / 61.1% / 64.9% (240) 019. RAITA 13E 12 pts +0.09 / 60.9% / 63.4% (240) 020. REATA 13E 12 pts -2.17 / 60.5% / 64.6% (240) --- 71 different candidate moves simulated / 15880 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 8.10 (1.01 avg.) NigelR 8.69 (1.09 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 16 / rack leave inference data Known played 'enduro' Significantly more likely than chance: AEFHMNOQRTUW More likely than chance: AEFHMNOQRTUW Less likely than chance: DGISYZ? Much less likely than chance: DGISYZ? Most likely to least likely: EONTUAFHMQRWDGISYZ? Average opponent rack is approximately 2.3 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'E' 'F' 'H' 'M' 'N' 1x: 4.8% 1x: 23.8% 1x: 4.8% 1x: 4.8% 1x: 4.8% 1x: 9.5% 'O' 'Q' 'R' 'T' 'U' 'W' 1x: 14.3% 1x: 4.8% 1x: 4.8% 1x: 9.5% 1x: 9.5% 1x: 4.8% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 17 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:...:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .$...$...$SO.$E 10 11 ....*.....TIP.E 11 12 :..A...:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 193 IIRTUWY NigelR 231 NigelP played: WIRY E9 25 pts [ITU] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. WIRY E9 25 pts -52.48 / 26.8% / 18.2% (3320) 002. WRIT E9 16 pts -56.43 / 24.8% / 14.8% (1680) 003. JURY 13D 18 pts -57.57 / 24.5% / 17.8% (960) 004. WAUR 12C 7 pts -57.41 / 24.4% / 20.6% (2400) 005. TRIGO I11 7 pts -57.79 / 24.0% / 19.3% (640) 006. WIT E10 14 pts -62.04 / 23.9% / 15.6% (240) 007. EXIT I7 12 pts -59.30 / 23.8% / 18.5% (480) 008. IRID F12 7 pts -58.70 / 23.6% / 17.1% (240) 009. LIRI G8 5 pts -63.25 / 23.4% / 16.2% (240) 010. TUI E10 8 pts -59.57 / 23.0% / 15.1% (480) 011. WITE 14A 14 pts -59.69 / 23.0% / 16.3% (240) 012. WIRE 14A 14 pts -60.46 / 22.7% / 17.7% (560) 013. TI E11 6 pts -60.58 / 22.7% / 19.2% (560) 014. WIRY C9 19 pts -57.95 / 22.4% / 5.8% (240) 015. RID F13 6 pts -65.22 / 22.2% / 15.1% (240) 016. WRY C10 14 pts -67.28 / 22.1% / 11.9% (240) 017. WRY E10 23 pts -64.82 / 21.8% / 12.5% (560) 018. WRIT C9 13 pts -59.65 / 21.7% / 9.5% (240) 019. LITU G8 5 pts -62.62 / 21.4% / 12.1% (320) 020. REI 14C 5 pts -65.87 / 21.0% / 15.3% (240) --- 56 different candidate moves simulated / 18140 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 8.10 (0.90 avg.) NigelR 8.69 (1.09 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 17 / rack leave inference data Known played 'aje' Significantly more likely than chance: AIR More likely than chance: AEIRTU? Less likely than chance: DFGHMNOQSZ Much less likely than chance: FHQZ Most likely to least likely: AEITNRSO?UGDMHFQZ Average opponent rack is approximately 8.5 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'G' 'H' 1x: 64.7% 1x: 8.9% 1x: 62.0% 1x: 3.0% 1x: 10.9% 1x: 3.3% 2x: 11.6% 2x: 7.3% 3x: 0.7% 'I' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 'R' 1x: 53.8% 1x: 5.3% 1x: 24.8% 1x: 22.4% 1x: 2.3% 1x: 24.8% 2x: 2.0% 3x: 0.3% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'Z' '?' 1x: 23.1% 1x: 32.3% 1x: 14.9% 1x: 1.3% 1x: 17.8% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 1.3% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 18 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:.W.:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .$..I$...$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 218 NigelR 231 AGHINRT NigelR played: HATING 10B 20 pts [IR] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. HI G5 5 pts +21.70 / 66.6% / 90.8% (1480) PLAYED 002. HATING 10B 20 pts +9.20 / 64.3% / 70.7% (570) 003. HAJ 13B 26 pts +10.06 / 61.9% / 68.5% (480) 004. GHI 10C 7 pts +9.44 / 61.5% / 70.1% (240) 005. FOINING L9 15 pts +6.09 / 61.3% / 66.7% (240) 006. WHA 9E 13 pts +6.86 / 61.0% / 68.4% (240) 007. HAYING 12C 15 pts +4.52 / 61.0% / 65.2% (240) 008. HATE 14A 14 pts +8.24 / 60.9% / 71.9% (240) 009. GRATIN C7 16 pts +9.48 / 60.8% / 71.5% (240) 010. AH D9 15 pts +8.81 / 60.7% / 70.3% (480) 011. HATING C7 22 pts +11.67 / 60.5% / 89.8% (320) 012. HIRING 10B 20 pts +8.97 / 60.4% / 69.5% (240) 013. GHAT D7 19 pts +7.35 / 60.2% / 66.1% (240) 014. LATH G8 8 pts +8.26 / 60.1% / 71.8% (560) 015. NTH C10 15 pts +6.52 / 59.7% / 69.9% (480) 016. NIGH 10D 12 pts +1.26 / 59.3% / 61.9% (240) 017. AHING C8 20 pts +10.19 / 59.1% / 78.2% (480) 018. HARING C7 22 pts +10.77 / 58.3% / 88.4% (240) 019. THIN C9 14 pts +5.79 / 58.3% / 70.7% (240) 020. HA 13H 11 pts +5.37 / 58.2% / 61.2% (240) --- 63 different candidate moves simulated / 13840 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 8.10 (0.90 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (1.23 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 18 / rack leave inference data Known played 'wiry' Significantly more likely than chance: DIMSUZ More likely than chance: DFIMSTUZ Less likely than chance: AENOQ? Most likely to least likely: UESITMDZFOQ?NA Average opponent rack is approximately 6.1 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'F' 'I' 'M' 1x: 7.1% 1x: 18.1% 1x: 33.7% 1x: 14.9% 1x: 31.4% 1x: 22.1% 'N' 'O' 'Q' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 9.7% 1x: 14.5% 1x: 11.4% 1x: 31.8% 1x: 27.8% 1x: 41.6% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 3.5% 2x: 0.9% 2x: 3.3% 'Z' '?' 1x: 16.8% 1x: 11.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 19 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .$...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 ..:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #..:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 ..:.W.:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 218 EIMOQTU NigelR 251 NigelP played: QUOTH B6 37 pts [EIM] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. QUOTH B6 37 pts -19.05 / 37.2% / 0.0% (2820) 002. HOMIE B10 20 pts -23.38 / 34.1% / 22.2% (2880) 003. AIM C10 13 pts -29.24 / 31.6% / 0.0% (480) 004. TOM 9A 20 pts -31.70 / 30.6% / 0.0% (560) 005. TOM 11A 14 pts -32.82 / 30.6% / 17.1% (880) 006. MHO B9 8 pts -44.37 / 29.4% / 0.0% (240) 007. OM 15M 11 pts -46.85 / 27.8% / 13.3% (240) 008. QUAI C8 14 pts -40.08 / 27.6% / 15.1% (240) 009. MEW 9C 20 pts -38.36 / 27.5% / 5.4% (240) 010. TO 11A 7 pts -43.70 / 27.4% / 17.7% (240) 011. (Keep EIQTU) 1A 0 pts -52.65 / 27.0% / 11.3% (240) 012. EM 14F 15 pts -43.26 / 26.6% / 3.1% (240) 013. MOTE 13F 13 pts -35.89 / 26.1% / 0.0% (320) 014. TOME 13F 13 pts -36.74 / 26.0% / 0.0% (240) 015. MO 9A 9 pts -43.62 / 25.8% / 0.0% (240) 016. MOT 11A 12 pts -45.28 / 24.8% / 12.8% (290) 017. EM 9B 19 pts -50.59 / 24.5% / 0.0% (240) 018. OM 14F 15 pts -45.67 / 24.2% / 5.1% (560) 019. WOE 9E 14 pts -45.90 / 23.9% / 0.0% (240) 020. WO 9E 7 pts -52.22 / 23.6% / 7.7% (320) --- 62 different candidate moves simulated / 20310 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 8.10 (0.81 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (1.23 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 19 / rack leave inference data Known played 'hatng' Significantly more likely than chance: ANRSTZ More likely than chance: ANRSTZ Less likely than chance: DEFIOU? Much less likely than chance: DEFIOU? Most likely to least likely: NTSARZDEFIOU? Average opponent rack is approximately 15.4 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'N' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'Z' 1x: 18.2% 1x: 54.5% 1x: 18.2% 1x: 36.4% 1x: 54.5% 1x: 18.2% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 20 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .Q...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 .U:...:DECODeS. 7 8 #O.:..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 .T:.W.:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 255 NigelR 251 EFIORSZ NigelR played: ZORI 8A 42 pts [EFOS] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. ZORI 8A 42 pts +43.55 / 88.1% / 100.0% (1940) 002. ROOF 8A 33 pts +35.98 / 80.6% / 100.0% (1290) 003. ZORI C3 37 pts +33.48 / 77.5% / 54.2% (480) 004. ZORIS C3 44 pts +25.49 / 72.0% / 98.6% (480) 005. OOZE 8A 42 pts +32.92 / 69.3% / 99.9% (560) 006. FIRE 13F 14 pts +22.72 / 68.1% / 99.3% (240) 007. IRE 14B 6 pts +19.01 / 66.6% / 99.3% (240) 008. SIZE 13F 20 pts +11.11 / 65.6% / 99.6% (240) 009. RISE C5 21 pts +23.00 / 64.4% / 99.2% (240) 010. ZOO 8A 36 pts +19.04 / 64.2% / 99.8% (480) 011. FEHS M6 23 pts +22.24 / 64.0% / 99.0% (240) 012. FIE 13G 16 pts +20.80 / 63.8% / 99.5% (240) 013. FOE 8A 18 pts +14.15 / 63.2% / 22.5% (240) 014. FROE 13F 14 pts +18.27 / 63.2% / 99.1% (240) 015. ZEE 14B 24 pts +14.09 / 63.1% / 99.0% (240) 016. OFAY 12B 10 pts +12.14 / 63.0% / 99.0% (240) 017. AIR C10 9 pts +12.65 / 62.8% / 99.1% (240) 018. FE 10N 13 pts +14.47 / 62.6% / 99.0% (240) 019. FADO H5 8 pts +11.01 / 61.6% / 98.9% (240) 020. FES 15K 22 pts +20.79 / 61.4% / 98.8% (240) --- 193 different candidate moves simulated / 24930 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 8.10 (0.81 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (1.10 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 20 / rack leave inference data Known played 'quot' More likely than chance: ADIMOSTU Less likely than chance: EN? Most likely to least likely: EDOUAIMST?N Average opponent rack is approximately 12 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'I' 'M' 'N' 1x: 21.5% 1x: 22.1% 1x: 66.3% 1x: 21.5% 1x: 21.5% 1x: 20.2% 2x: 17.7% 3x: 1.1% 'O' 'S' 'T' 'U' '?' 1x: 22.1% 1x: 21.5% 1x: 21.5% 1x: 21.8% 1x: 21.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 21 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.....PI..I 5 6 .Q...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 .U:...:DECODeS. 7 8 ZORI..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 .T:.W.:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 255 ADEIMT? NigelR 293 NigelP played: MI G5 4 pts [ADEIT?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. MI C5 15 pts +18.95 / 77.1% / 97.1% (6640) 002. IMPI 5I 8 pts +8.56 / 70.3% / 97.9% (3410) 003. TIPI 5I 6 pts +9.80 / 69.0% / 96.2% (480) PLAYED 004. MI G5 4 pts +9.93 / 67.6% / 96.8% (2480) 005. AMI C4 16 pts +2.03 / 58.0% / 93.6% (480) 006. AVE F5 6 pts +2.81 / 57.4% / 90.3% (480) 007. AMI G4 5 pts -4.80 / 50.9% / 75.0% (240) 008. AI C5 13 pts -2.51 / 49.1% / 25.0% (480) 009. AD 5G 11 pts -7.31 / 48.1% / 0.0% (480) 010. AI G5 2 pts -6.53 / 46.7% / 0.0% (240) 011. TAV F4 6 pts -10.35 / 43.0% / 0.0% (240) 012. AE 11B 22 pts -16.23 / 38.5% / 0.0% (240) 013. AM 11B 26 pts -14.83 / 37.5% / 0.0% (480) 014. EAT 11A 23 pts -21.09 / 37.1% / 0.0% (240) 015. TAE 11A 23 pts -22.93 / 33.1% / 0.0% (480) 016. TI C5 13 pts -20.67 / 32.9% / 0.0% (240) 017. EAT 13I 13 pts -14.33 / 32.3% / 0.0% (240) 018. AT 11B 22 pts -20.09 / 32.3% / 0.0% (240) 019. QUOTHA B6 18 pts -20.20 / 31.8% / 0.0% (240) 020. sAE 11A 22 pts -13.77 / 30.6% / 0.0% (240) --- 205 different candidate moves simulated / 35830 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 17.55 (1.60 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (1.10 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 21 / rack leave inference data Known played 'zri' Significantly more likely than chance: NU More likely than chance: ENU Less likely than chance: FOS Much less likely than chance: FOS Most likely to least likely: EUNFOS Average opponent rack is approximately 14.1 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'E' 'N' 'U' 1x: 100.0% 1x: 50.0% 1x: 100.0% 2x: 100.0% 3x: 50.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 22 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.M...PI..I 5 6 .Q...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 .U:...:DECODeS. 7 8 ZORI..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 .T:.W.:.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 259 NigelR 293 EEFOOSU NigelR played: WOO 9E 14 pts [EEFSU] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. WOO 9E 14 pts +37.79 / 88.1% / 99.7% (4080) 002. LOGO G8 6 pts +28.54 / 84.2% / 99.1% (1280) 003. GOO G10 4 pts +25.61 / 78.7% / 98.2% (480) 004. WOE 9E 14 pts +31.94 / 76.8% / 98.5% (480) 005. ONE F9 10 pts +24.66 / 75.0% / 97.6% (480) 006. EVE F5 10 pts +38.33 / 74.5% / 97.1% (620) 007. OE 13H 8 pts +23.62 / 72.8% / 98.2% (480) 008. OE 11G 5 pts +22.24 / 71.5% / 42.5% (240) 009. OE 7D 4 pts +20.27 / 70.5% / 94.1% (240) 010. LOGE G8 6 pts +20.63 / 69.7% / 99.0% (240) 011. WO 9E 7 pts +22.42 / 67.0% / 100.0% (2960) 012. OD F14 5 pts +18.54 / 65.2% / 98.7% (240) 013. GO G10 3 pts +18.11 / 65.0% / 29.2% (240) 014. OE 10N 4 pts +19.11 / 63.5% / 98.6% (240) 015. WEE 9E 14 pts +20.38 / 63.3% / 30.0% (240) 016. LUGE G8 6 pts +9.73 / 60.6% / 96.0% (240) 017. OE 14C 2 pts +13.58 / 57.5% / 98.3% (240) 018. OS N13 20 pts +13.88 / 57.1% / 97.8% (320) 019. NO 13M 2 pts +11.40 / 56.4% / 94.1% (240) 020. OI 5N 2 pts +12.59 / 55.8% / 97.1% (240) --- 150 different candidate moves simulated / 22140 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 17.55 (1.60 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (1.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 22 / rack leave inference data No tile guess. ================================================================================ Move 23 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..*...:...BY.I 4 5 ....*.M...PI..I 5 6 .Q...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 .U:...:DECODeS. 7 8 ZORI..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 .T:.WOO.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 259 ADEEIT? NigelR 307 NigelP played: IDEATEs 4D 71 pts Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. mEDIATE 4C 71 pts -3.13 / 37.5% / 37.5% (peg) 002. IDEATEd 4D 71 pts -3.13 / 37.5% / 37.5% (peg) 003. IdEATED 4D 71 pts -3.13 / 37.5% / 37.5% (peg) 004. DEvIATE 4C 71 pts -3.13 / 37.5% / 37.5% (peg) PLAYED 005. IDEATEs 4D 71 pts -3.13 / 37.5% / 37.5% (peg) 006. (Pass) 1A 0 pts -9.88 / 12.5% / 12.5% (peg) 007. AE C10 2 pts -13.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 008. AYE 12D 6 pts -13.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 009. RE 11E 5 pts -14.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 010. EGO I13 5 pts -14.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 011. LOGE G8 5 pts -14.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 012. ED F14 5 pts -14.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 013. EL J13 2 pts -17.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 014. NE 13M 2 pts -17.75 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 015. NE L14 3 pts -20.88 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 016. EAT 13I 13 pts -24.88 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 017. TIE K13 3 pts -25.13 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 018. AT 13J 6 pts -27.50 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 019. ET 13J 6 pts -28.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) 020. GLINTED 14I 18 pts -29.00 / 0.0% / 0.0% (peg) --- 137 different candidate moves simulated / 0 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: NigelP 17.55 (1.46 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (1.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 23 / rack leave inference data No tile guess. ================================================================================ Move 24 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..IDEATEs.BY.I 4 5 ....*.M...PI..I 5 6 .Q...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 .U:...:DECODeS. 7 8 ZORI..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 .T:.WOO.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 330 NigelR 307 EEEFSSU NigelR played: FUSEE 15K 42 pts [ES] Endgame PLAYED 001. FUSEE 15K 42 pts 100.0% (eg) 002. FESSE 15K 42 pts 100.0% (eg) 003. FUSES 15K 42 pts 100.0% (eg) 004. FUSE 15K 23 pts 0.0% (eg) 005. FUSS 15K 23 pts 0.0% (eg) 006. USES 15L 25 pts 0.0% (eg) 007. FEHS M6 23 pts 0.0% (eg) 008. FUSEE 14A 18 pts 0.0% (eg) 009. FEUDS E1 18 pts 0.0% (eg) 010. FEUS 3A 16 pts 0.0% (eg) 011. REEF 11E 15 pts 0.0% (eg) 012. FEE F2 14 pts 0.0% (eg) 013. US N13 20 pts 0.0% (eg) 014. EF F12 11 pts 0.0% (eg) 015. SUE 15M 16 pts 0.0% (eg) 016. ESS 15L 14 pts 0.0% (eg) 017. EF 11G 10 pts 0.0% (eg) 018. SEED F12 13 pts 0.0% (eg) 019. REES 11E 12 pts 0.0% (eg) 020. USES 3A 10 pts 0.0% (eg) Win percentage given up: NigelP 17.55 (1.46 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (0.92 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 24 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- last move was a bingo! ================================================================================ Move 25 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#..M:V.A 1 2 .*...$...CABALA 2 3 ..*...:.:.WAR.L 3 4 :..IDEATEs.BY.I 4 5 ....*.M...PI..I 5 6 .Q...VIA.$RE.$. 6 7 .U:...:DECODeS. 7 8 ZORI..LOX.T:HOG 8 9 .T:.WOO.:.EF:.R 9 10 .HATING..$SO.$E 10 11 ....R.....TIP.E 11 12 :..AY..:...NU.K 12 13 ..*J..:.:...N.. 13 14 .*.E.$..GLINT*. 14 15 #..ENDURO.FUSEE 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO NigelP 330 N NigelR 349 NigelP played: NAY 12C 6 pts Endgame PLAYED 001. NAY 12C 6 pts 0.0% (eg) 002. NE 10N 4 pts 0.0% (eg) 003. NE I3 3 pts 0.0% (eg) 004. AN C10 2 pts 0.0% (eg) 005. NE 14C 2 pts 0.0% (eg) 006. IN D4 2 pts 0.0% (eg) 007. NE F3 2 pts 0.0% (eg) 008. NU G14 2 pts 0.0% (eg) 009. EN I4 2 pts 0.0% (eg) 010. NE O14 2 pts 0.0% (eg) Win percentage given up: NigelP 17.55 (1.35 avg.) NigelR 11.03 (0.92 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 25 / rack leave inference data No tile guess. ================================================================================