Elise Game Recap

I really like Elise's HUB L12; it's an aggressive move that, nine times out of ten, would pay off handsomely. Quackle was lucky to draw the third S and take the scoring opportunity for itself. The alternative here would be something like HUSH L12, which scores well but almost certainly gives the opponent an easy triple word play on the next turn.

Although dozens of bingoes were available at move 7, OUTCRYING 8G is a 45-point play that leaves EES? -- a real no-brainer.

PROFs 1A kills any attempt by Quackle to use the A1 triple word score (F hooks on E1), and scores solidly, putting the game further out of reach. Using the blank does reduce flexibility in the endgame, but Elise's lead is enough that it's reasonably sure that it can win.

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Move# Player Rack Move Sq Leave Score Total Notes
1 Elise pre-release corstuy OUTCRY 8G [s] 30 30 7-ply winprob simulation (2000), +0.40 / 58.7%

2 Quackle adeiimn MERIDIAN K6 72 72

3 Elise pre-release bhhissu HUB L12 [hiss] 28 58 7-ply winprob simulation (1200), -34.13 / 43.5%

4 Quackle adejqrs JADES 15H [qr] 52 124

5 Elise pre-release eghioss GOSH J3 [eis] 31 89 7-ply winprob simulation (1760), -63.72 / 29.9%

6 Quackle eilnqrt (Keep EINRT) --- [einrt] 0 124

7 Elise pre-release eegins? OUTCRYING 8G [ees?] 45 134 7-ply winprob simulation (960), +5.46 / 62.8%

8 Quackle einnrtt TIN M7 [einrt] 5 129

9 Elise pre-release eenosy? mOONEYES 4H 72 206 7-ply winprob simulation (1600), +40.25 / 79.3%

10 Quackle eiinrtt NITRITE 3B 67 196

11 Elise pre-release aeglmos MOULAGES H6 62 268 7-ply winprob simulation (800), +31.99 / 78.2%

12 Quackle beellpr BLEEP N2 [elr] 30 226

13 Elise pre-release eipqtx? EX 2E [ipqt?] 52 320 7-ply winprob simulation (8124), +82.09 / 97.1%

14 Quackle eeiklrv KEVILS 13C [er] 28 254

15 Elise pre-release aiopqt? QAT M11 [iop?] 36 356 7-ply winprob simulation (2400), +100.09 / 98.6%

16 Quackle eelorrw TROWELER D3 74 328

17 Elise pre-release dfiopr? PROFs 1A [di] 41 397 7-ply winprob simulation (10000), +51.62 / 96.8%

18 Quackle adfooru FOOL 8A [adru] 21 349

19 Elise pre-release aadiinz IZAR 10A [adin] 33 430 7-ply winprob simulation (1600), +77.08 / 99.5%

20 Quackle aadrtuu VAU E13 [adrtu] 6 355

21 Elise pre-release aacdinw WEAN D12 [acdi] 21 451 7-ply equity simulation (880), +98.59 / 100.0%

22 Quackle adirtuv VERT 9C [adiu] 21 376

23 Elise pre-release acdei RANCID B1 [e] 26 477

24 Quackle adiu DAIS O1 [u] 21 397

25 Elise pre-release e DEW 6B 7 484

Move#	Player	Rack	Move	Sq	Leave	Score	Total	Notes
1	Elise pre-release	corstuy	OUTCRY	8G	[s]	30	30	7-ply winprob simulation (2000), +0.40 / 58.7%
2	Quackle	adeiimn	MERIDIAN	K6		72	72
3	Elise pre-release	bhhissu	HUB	L12	[hiss]	28	58	7-ply winprob simulation (1200), -34.13 / 43.5%
4	Quackle	adejqrs	JADES	15H	[qr]	52	124
5	Elise pre-release	eghioss	GOSH	J3	[eis]	31	89	7-ply winprob simulation (1760), -63.72 / 29.9%
6	Quackle	eilnqrt	(Keep EINRT)	---	[einrt]	0	124
7	Elise pre-release	eegins?	OUTCRYING	8G	[ees?]	45	134	7-ply winprob simulation (960), +5.46 / 62.8%
8	Quackle	einnrtt	TIN	M7	[einrt]	5	129
9	Elise pre-release	eenosy?	mOONEYES	4H		72	206	7-ply winprob simulation (1600), +40.25 / 79.3%
10	Quackle	eiinrtt	NITRITE	3B		67	196
11	Elise pre-release	aeglmos	MOULAGES	H6		62	268	7-ply winprob simulation (800), +31.99 / 78.2%
12	Quackle	beellpr	BLEEP	N2	[elr]	30	226
13	Elise pre-release	eipqtx?	EX	2E	[ipqt?]	52	320	7-ply winprob simulation (8124), +82.09 / 97.1%
14	Quackle	eeiklrv	KEVILS	13C	[er]	28	254
15	Elise pre-release	aiopqt?	QAT	M11	[iop?]	36	356	7-ply winprob simulation (2400), +100.09 / 98.6%
16	Quackle	eelorrw	TROWELER	D3		74	328
17	Elise pre-release	dfiopr?	PROFs	1A	[di]	41	397	7-ply winprob simulation (10000), +51.62 / 96.8%
18	Quackle	adfooru	FOOL	8A	[adru]	21	349
19	Elise pre-release	aadiinz	IZAR	10A	[adin]	33	430	7-ply winprob simulation (1600), +77.08 / 99.5%
20	Quackle	aadrtuu	VAU	E13	[adrtu]	6	355
21	Elise pre-release	aacdinw	WEAN	D12	[acdi]	21	451	7-ply equity simulation (880), +98.59 / 100.0%
22	Quackle	adirtuv	VERT	9C	[adiu]	21	376
23	Elise pre-release	acdei	RANCID	B1	[e]	26	477
24	Quackle	adiu	DAIS	O1	[u]	21	397
25	Elise pre-release	e	DEW	6B		7	484

Elise pre-release: 485, Quackle: 396